SportsTemps

Power 16: February 10, 2012

2012-02-10T16:45:00.000-06:00

Though Austin Rivers' 3-pointer won the game for the Blue Devils it's still not enough
to earn them a 1 seed. There's still time. And seriously, what was Tyler Zeller thinking?

I held off making this week's Power 16 since there were so many intriguing games in the middle of the week. It paid off. There's a lot of shuffling going on and while the top teams are starting to secure position the 3's and 4's are not even close to being settled. Check it out to see who moved up and who moved down.

1's	Record	RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Kentucky	24-1 (11-1)	3 / 74/ 5-1
Syracuse	24-1 (11-1)	1 /12 / 6-1
Ohio St.	21-3 (8-2)	4 /41 / 6-3
Missouri	22-2 (9-2)	9 /102 / 6-1

Kentucky continues to roll and unless they lose more than two times down the stretch a 1 seed is all locked up. Syracuse held off a feisty Georgetown squad this week to stay atop the Big East. They're in a dogfight with Kentucky for the top overall seed. Ohio St. is 10-2 over their last 12 games and looks like they've got the Big Ten wrapped up. Missouri earns themselves the final 1 seed by currently sitting in first place in the Big 12. Wins over Kansas and Baylor help their cause.

Conference Run-Down February 5, 2012

2012-02-05T12:54:00.000-06:00

Each February I take a closer look at each conference to try and see where each team stands relative to another. I've listed the top 15 conference in my opinion and dissected them into three groups. This little exercise allows me to see who's a lock and who's on the bubble. After this is done I can start to rank the teams and give them seeds. There were a few upsets this weekend while other games just created more separation amongst bubble teams.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, St. Louis

Should be In:

Firmly on Bubble: Xavier, LaSalle, UMass

Xavier was 8-0 after they won the brawl with Cincinnati. Since then they're 7-8 and haven't beaten anybody who will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. LaSalle has a nice overall record but lacks a signature win though they still have home games left against St. Louis and Temple. UMass's win over St. Louis puts them in the discussion but right now they're probably on the outside looking in.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida St.

Should be In: Virginia

Firmly on Bubble: Miami, North Carolina St.

Virginia's loss to FSU yesterday put a bit of a damper on their likely seeding. Miami and NC St. both need a couple of big wins to help their cause.

Big 12

Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Missouri

Should be In: Kansas St.

Firmly on Bubble: Iowa St., Texas

Kansas St.'s two losses to Oklahoma really sting but shouldn't keep them out. Iowa St. is 7-3 in conference play with wins over Kansas, Kansas St., and Texas. That's likely enough. Texas needs to finish .500 in the conference to feel good about their case and right now they're 4-6.

Mid-major rankings: Ground Hog Day, 2012

2012-02-02T19:34:00.000-06:00

There's been quite a shakeup in the Mid-major rankings since the last one came out. It's nitty gritty time for a lot of these schools and the upcoming Bracketbusters could provide a last chance for statement wins. Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow won't provide six more weeks to the college basketball season but it also shows that there's still time for teams to build their resumes. Don't be surprised if a team towards the bottom of this list makes a move around conference tournament time.

St. Mary's has found success recruiting most of their players from Australia.
I wonder, does the ball go around the rim counter-clockwise down there too?

Creighton (21-2) – The Bluejays are on a roll and are the best mid-major team in the country right now. There are still a couple of tricky conference games left but they host Wichita St. and will host Long Beach St. in the Bracketbuster.
St. Mary's (21-2) – While we didn't know much about St. Mary's in the latest Power Rankings, we know plenty now. They're 10-0 in the WCC and their two losses came at Denver (so-so), and to Baylor (forgiven).
Murray St. (21-0) – Undefeated and untested in conference play, the Racers will host St. Mary's for their Bracketbuster. If they win an undefeated season will be in their grasp.
Harvard (18-2) – The Crimson remain undefeated in the Ivy League though their loss to Fordham in January took a little shine off their resume.
Wichita St. (19-4) – Starting 10-2 in the Missouri Valley would get a little more publicity most years but this team still hasn't answered the number one question: can they beat anybody good? They'll have to win their rematch with Creighton to prove it as their Bracketbuster matchup with Davidson isn't going to provide much help.
Gonzaga (17-3) – Gonzaga's a decent school and a good bet to make the dance but don't expect much once there. Their best win is Xavier and they lost by 19 to St. Mary's. They have won 12 of their last 13 though.
Middle Tennessee (20-3) – I never would've guessed this team would be so successful this season. They thumped UCLA, split with Belmont, and played a hot Vanderbilt team tough. They may not earn a good seed in March but they'll give whomever they play quite a game.
Long Beach St. (16-6) – Of their six losses five are to at-large teams. They've got wins over Pitt and Xavier so beating Creighton would be icing on the cake. They, too, are undefeated in conference play (Big West).
BYU (18-6) – BYU has won every game they're supposed to except one (Loyola) but they're lacking the signature win needed to give their bubble much credential. With no Bracketbuster on the docket, and still two games with Gonzaga, BYU have little margin for error.
Davidson (16-5) – Their win over Kansas likely put them in the NCAA Tournament but they still need to finish strong to keep ahold of an at-large bid. Wichita St. comes to town in a couple of weeks for another chance at a quality win.
VCU (19-5) – VCU lack the quality wins necessary for an at-large berth but they're in a three-way tie for first in the Colonial. They'll play Northern Iowa for their bracket buster.
Cleveland St. (18-4) – The Horizon's most likely bet for representation in the NCAA Tournament, Cleveland St. has won 8 of their last 10 gets to play the two Chicago schools before their date with Valpo.
Akron (15-7) – It looks as if this team is just hitting their stride. They've actually got a couple of decent wins putting them in position for a potential at-large bid if they finish strong. They can't afford to lose to Oral Roberts in the Bracketbuster.

Just missed: Iona, Belmont, Drexel

Power 16: January 29, 2012

2012-01-29T05:55:00.002-06:00

The Racers danced with excitement when I informed them of their inclusion
in my latest Power 16. This is the type of reaction we like to see here at Sportstemps.

January's nearly over and there's still quite a bit of shuffling going on. Syracuse finally lost, a third team entered the ACC title discussion (Florida St.), Wisconsin's back making the Big Ten more muddled than ever, and mid-majors are on the rise. February is the most important month of the year since it's the last chance for teams to grab quality wins before the conference tournaments and mid-majors get to play in Bracket Busters. This is also the month where the average fan who wants to win money in their bracket pools should begin to pay attention. Read on to see who's moved since the last Power 16.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 50
Syracuse	22-1 (9-1)	4-0
Kentucky	21-1 (7-0)	5-1
Ohio St.	18-3 (6-2)	4-3
North Carolina	17-3 (4-1)	4-3

Though Syracuse lost at Notre Dame, they still sit atop the Big East and are an impressive 4-0 against the RPI top 50 with three of those wins coming against top 25 teams. Kentucky won a close one last weekend against Alabama and now have a commanding lead in the SEC. Their only loss remains a one point defeat at Indiana making this team a lock for a 1 seed. Don't look now but Ohio St. is officially on a roll - playing Nebraska and Penn St. helps - and are sitting in a first place tie with Michigan St. in the Big Ten. UNC moves into the 1's almost by default as Baylor continues to struggle with the best teams.

Conference Power Rankings: Missouri Valley

2012-01-23T22:04:00.001-06:00

The Missouri Valley is a conference I enjoy following and this was before I attended one of the schools. I've always liked the mid-majors but this is a conference whose style is similar to that of the Big Ten. The tempo is slower than most, defense is emphasized, and rebounding and fundamentals are a must. Think of it as the Big Ten's little brother. Though it's been a few seasons since the MVC has made an impact in March, I believe the conference is turning the corner. This is exemplified by the top two teams Creighton and Wichita St. If they have success in the NCAA Tournament it's likely the conference will ride the effect for several years much like the Colonial did after George Mason's great run from 2006.

Father and son have been a lethal combination for the
Blue Jays this season. Winning Coach and Player of the Year honors
may be just the beginning of this team's post-season success.

Creighton 18-2 (8-1) - The Blue Jays avenged their only conference loss last week with a one point victory over Missouri St. If they can defeat Wichita St. in the rematch there will be no doubt who the best team in the conference is. Winning the conference title will also be a big help to Doug McDermott's All American chances.
Wichita St. 17-3 (8-1) - The Shockers' three losses this season have come to Alabama, Temple, and Creighton. While it's a bit worrisome they haven't defeated any of the ranked teams they've played, they're close to a lock for an NCAA berth. The rematch with Creighton takes place in Omaha on Feb 11th.
Missouri St. 12-9 (5-4) - To me this team has been a bit disappointing. Losing to Creighton and Wichita St. is fine but the two home losses to Evansville and Illinois St. sting. They'll have to win the conference tournament to earn the MVC a third NCAA bid.
Drake 12-8 (5-4) - They're 0-4 against Creighton, Missouri St., and UNI and haven't even played Wichita St. yet. Basically they're beating up on the bottom of the conference which is nice but getting a couple of wins against the top teams would go a long way in building their NIT resume.
Evansville 10-9 (5-4) - Currently riding a three game winning streak, junior Colt Ryan has emerged as one of the conference's top players highlighted by his 39 points against Bradley.
Northern Iowa 14-7 (4-5) - After playing great in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Panthers have been mediocre during the regular season. They have a nice one point win over Missouri St. but also lost to Bradley. They have a good enough non-con profile that they could have been a bubble team but it's too late for that now unless they go undefeated the rest of the way.
Illinois St. 12-8 (4-5) - After starting off 3-1 in conference play, the Redbirds have gone 1-4 with their only win coming against Indiana St. While ISU is + 14 in turnovers in their last four losses, they're only forcing 11 a game. That's not enough when you're allowing opponents to make 46% of their two point shots.
Southern Illinois 6-14 (3-6) - SIU opponents shoot free throws on 52% of their field goal attempts. That is an atrocious number that I'm willing to bet ranks in the bottom ten in the nation. They also shoot 28% from three while allowing opponents to shoot 36%. In case you're not getting the hint, this team is bad - worse than their record suggests.
Indiana St. 11-7 (2-7) - What happened to this team? Their poor conference record is a result of the odd combination of not defending the three and not getting offensive rebounds. I expected much more from this squad.
Bradley 6-15 (1-8) - Their one win is perhaps the biggest surprise of the conference season thus far (defeated NIU 78-67). They could squeak out a couple of more before the season ends but this team is pretty much entrenched in last place.

Conference Power Rankings: Horizon League

2012-01-19T04:57:00.000-06:00

The Horizon League is often a one-bid league but they sure have been successful pulling off upsets. Look no further than Butler's two straight trips to the NCAA Championship game for proof. This year isn't likely to have the same fairy tale ending but it will be interesting to see who draws the Horizon League rep in the first round of this year's tournament.

Ronald Nored's free throw percentage (37%) should
tell you all you need to know about Butler's chances
of getting back to the Final Four this year.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee 13-6 (6-1) - The loss at Butler is understandable but the Jan 3 loss to Western Michigan means they'll have to win the conference tourney if they want to participate in March. Sunday's matchup with Cleveland St. is huge.
Cleveland St. 15-4 (5-2) - Cleveland St. has the best chance of an at-large bid in the conference thanks to wins over Vanderbilt, Kent St., and Akron. Their loss at Youngstown St. really stings and may be the one that ends up costing them the regular season title.
Valparaiso 12-7 (5-2) - Has it really been fourteen years since Bryce Drew hit a three at the buzzer to upset Ole Miss in the NCAA Tournament?* The home wins over Green Bay and Cleveland St. are nice but there are too many issues on defense to consider them the conference favorite.
Butler 10-9 (4-3) - Right when I was starting to take them seriously they drop a must-win to Detroit and then lose at home to Cleveland St. There is no magic this year which makes me sad.
Youngstown St. 9-8 (4-3) - The Penguins (great nickname) won three in a row to put themselves in first place but now have lost two straight. They're 5-1 at home this year.
Detroit 9-11 (3-5) - Lost a squeaker to Valpo then upset Butler and won in Green Bay. They're playing better now than they have all season. This team will be a handful in the conference tournament.
Wright St. 9-11 (4-4) - Nearly pulled an upset of Butler and then did upset Valpo only to lose their next two games in the state of Wisconsin. This team is so up and down I don't know which direction they're heading.
Wisconsin-Green Bay 7-10 (3-5) - Green Bay's first two conference games came in the first week of December (they won both) but they didn't play their third until Dec 29. After losing four straight they managed to finally get back on the right track when they defeated Wright St. Saturday.
Illinois-Chicago 6-11 (2-5) - Remember when UIC upset Illinois last year?
Loyola 5-12 (0-7) - Last year Loyola was respectable though that now seems an aberration. This team is clearly the worst in the conference and the only game I can see them being favored in is their home match against UIC in February.

*Editor's note: People often forget Valpo also beat Florida St. in the next round to advance to the Sweet 16. Definitely one of the most unsuspecting Cinderellas ever.

Power 16: January 18, 2012

2012-01-18T15:55:00.001-06:00

Soph. Dion Waiters leads the Orange's excellent defense this season.
According to Kenpom.com Waiters ranks 3rd in the nation in steal % which
along with his teammates puts Syracuse first nationally in steal %. This team
has to be the favorite to cut down the nets in April.

It's been more than two weeks since I put out a Power 16 and there has been some shuffling. Conference play is underway for everyone so we're starting to sort out the pretenders from the contenders. At 2/3 of the way through the season, if your team hasn't started to put things together by now it's likely they will not. Here's how we stand in the third week of January:

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Syracuse	20-0 (7-0)	Florida, Marquette, Stanford
Kentucky	18-1 (4-0)	Kansas, UNC, Louisville
Ohio St.	16-3 (4-2)	Duke, Florida, Indiana
Baylor	17-1 (4-1)	Kansas St., St. Mary's, BYU

Syracuse has been phenomenal. At 20-0 they're one of only two undefeated teams remaining (Murray St.) and though the Big East is no cakewalk there are no teams that are on the same level with the Orange. Kentucky will be tested vs. Alabama this weekend but with their only loss at Indiana they've got a firm grasp on a one seed. Ohio St. is only 4-2 in conference play but has one of the best resumes of any team in the nation. Plus Jared Sullinger is healthy and the committee will take that into consideration. Baylor is a bit of an enigma. They haven't played many top teams and their 18 point loss at Kansas raises some questions.

Conference Power Rankings: ACC

2012-01-17T02:11:00.001-06:00

And now back to the Power Rankings series.
The ACC is typically one of the best conferences in college basketball with North Carolina and Duke consistently considered contenders as the best team. In the last couple of years, however, the ACC has begun to slip. This was first noticed when they lost the Big Ten/ACC Challenge for the first time in 2009 after winning it ten straight years. After three straight losses and a season in which it's likely to have more teams on the bubble than as locks come March, it's apparent to most fans this conference ain't what it used to be. Now, this doesn't mean the ACC is a bad conference, just until some of the other schools like Maryland, Wake Forest, and N.C. State regain the success they had in the 80's, 90's, and 2000's the conference will not be considered elite.

Mike Scott has led the Cavaliers to a 14-2 start making
them perhaps the most surprising team in the country and
with rekindled hopes of an NCAA bid.

Duke 15-2 (3-0) - I don't think Duke is the best team but right now they have the best profile; when you're undefeated you sit at the top. Close wins over Georgia Tech and Virginia are still wins.
North Carolina 15-3 (2-1) - The Tar Heels road woes continue - UNC is 12-0 at home, 2-0 on a neutral floor, but just 1-3 on the road.
Florida St. 11-6 (2-1) - Statement wins are nice and Saturday's 90-57 win over North Carolina was just that. The only thing FSU is lacking is consistency. If they can put together a nice little streak of wins they'll be taken seriously.
Virginia 14-2 (1-1) - Virginia started off 13-1 and has really played well lately. They'll likely be favored in their next five games putting them at 19-2 which would really open a lot of people's eyes.
North Carolina St. 13-5 (2-1) - They beat Maryland then dropped a silly one at home to the Yellow Jackets. Following up that win with a 36 point shellacking of Wake Forest keeps them in the top five.
Maryland 12-4 (2-1) - What do you know, Maryland is 9-1 in their last ten games. The level of difficulty is about to increase significantly with FSU, Temple, and Duke the next three games. Let's see what happens.
Georgia Tech 8-9 (1-2) - GT doesn't have to play Duke, UNC, FSU, or Virginia twice this year. There is a chance for a fifth place finish and a solid NIT bid.
Miami 9-6 (0-2) - There's still time to right the ship. With North Carolina and Virginia out of the way, Miami's next five games are all winnable.
Boston College 7-10 (2-1) - The win over Clemson was a bit of a surprise. This team isn't as bad as many thought though losses to Holy Cross and Boston gave cause for people to see the worst in them.
Clemson 9-8 (1-2) - The loss at Boston College may say more about this team than the close loss to Duke. The Tigers play decent defense but they seem to struggle getting to the free throw line and their best players aren't good foul shooters anyway. That makes winning close games even tougher.
Wake Forest 10-7 (1-2) - Slowly but surely the Demon Deacons are climbing out of the cellar. This is a team that went 1-15 in ACC play last season. They've already got their win so perhaps they can double last season's total?
Virginia Tech 11-6 (0-3) - It wasn't supposed to be like this. Losing to BC and Wake is inexcusable and with the next two against UNC and at Virginia it's about to get worse.

2012 Hall of Fame Candidates: Ballot review

2012-01-12T20:08:00.003-06:00

Two years ago I did a post about players on the Hall of Fame ballot and it received some positive feedback so I thought I'd do one this year too.

I'm sure we'll hear plenty about Barry Larkin this summer as the lone inductee - and he is a worthy inductee - but this is more of a chance to glance at everyone who didn't make it. Each writer gets to vote for up to ten players or as few as zero. So, if I had a ballot I couldn't vote for the top fifteen guys I feel are Hall worthy. Below is the shakedown.

Stand up, Barry Larkin, this Bud's for you.

Barry Larkin, 86.4%: Larkin was arguably the best shortstop of the 90's though he's often forgotten when discussing great shortstops of his era. I'm sure he'll make a nice speech.

Jack Morris, 66.7%: I'm not a fan of his candidacy but it now seems inevitable that he'll be enshrined one day. His career ERA+ is 105. Without researching I'm guessing that would be the worst of any Hall of Famer.

Jeff Bagwell, 56.0%: I don't comprehend why he hasn't been inducted. I'm assuming many voters believe he was a steroid user because he was muscular and hit for power. This is a man who has never been on any lists and was not investigated in the Mitchell Report even though his team trainer was the star witness. He was a good base runner, excellent fielder and his 1994 season is one of the greatest ever by someone not named Bonds or Ruth.

Lee Smith, 50.6%: Lee Smith was a pretty darn good reliever for a long time which is how he was able to amass 478 career saves. Unfortunately for him relief pitcher is the toughest position to earn enshrinement with only five relievers in the HOF (Wilhelm, Fingers, Eckersley, Gossage, Sutter). Now that his saves record has been broken by two people it's going to be even harder for him to get in.

Tim Raines, 48.7%: This is a significant gain; Raines has more than doubled his vote total since 2009 when he only managed 22%. Did you know Tim Raines's career OBP is .385? By comparison, Tony Gwynn's is .388 and last year's inductee Andre Dawson sports a career .325 mark. Just sayin'.

Edgar Martinez, 36.5%: Edgar's holding steady in the mid 30's. He's a tough case for a lot of voters since he's the first pure DH to warrant serious Hall consideration. He led the league in batting twice (in the Kingdome!), OBP three times, runs scored twice, doubles twice, runs and RBI once, and finished with a career OPS+ of 147. The man could hit.

Alan Trammell, 36.8%: What's this, a sudden spike in votes for Trammell? It's his eleventh try on the ballot so it may be too little too late but it's something. Bill James ranked him as the 9th greatest shortstop of all time in his 2000 Baseball Abstract.

Fred McGriff, 23.9%: 493 career home runs ain't what it used to be. I'll have a Keltner List up for McGriff later but as of now his prospects don't look good.

Larry Walker, 22.9%: It's easy to forget how good Walker's statistics are. He won three batting titles, an MVP, seven Gold Gloves, and was a five time All-Star. That's a pretty good resume. Still, we need to take his numbers with a grain of salt since he played in Colorado in the pre-Humidor era. He's a good candidate for a future Keltner List post.

Mark McGwire, 19.5%: 583 career home runs, 12 time all-star, led the league in OBP twice, slugging four times, and OPS+ four times. Won a gold glove and finished in the top six in MVP voting five times. Alas, there's a steroid scandal and if weren't for that he'd be in.

Don Mattingly, 17.8%: Don Mattingly is sort of like Nomar Garciaparra. He was great in his peak years but otherwise just another player. Like Nomar, Mattingly had some injuries contribute to his downfall. If not for that he may have been another Hall of Famer. Always "what if."

Dale Murphy, 14.5%: This is his fourteenth year on the ballot meaning it's 2013 or bust. He has a pretty solid case to be inducted but when his prime was over so was his career.

Palmeiro: "I have never used steroids." This is all
you need to know about why he's an afterthought.

Rafael Palmeiro, 12.6%: Career longevity led to 3020 hits and 569 home runs. Steroids led to him only getting 72 votes.

Bernie Williams, 9.6%: I figured he would do a little better being a Yankee and all. See how I feel here.

Everybody mentioned thus far will return on 2013's ballot. The players listed below failed to receive 5% of the vote and won't get another chance for induction.

Juan Gonzalez, 4.0%: I'm pretty surprised he didn't make it over the 5% threshold. He hit 40+ homers five times and had 157 RBI in 1998. A two-time MVP, even with steroid rumors he deserved better.

Vinny Castilla, 6 votes: Castilla was a good defensive third baseman who had some serious pop. In 1996 and 1997 he finished with the exact same triple crown stats (.304/40/113) which is really weird. He hit 30+ home runs six times.

What happens when you win 2 MVP's, hit 40 home runs
five times but are rumored to have used PEDs? You get
kicked off the ballot after two years.

Tim Salmon, 5 votes: Salmon is probably the best player to never make an All-Star game. He finished just one homer shy of 300.

Bill Mueller, 4 votes: Pedro Gomez of ESPN voted for you and not Tim Raines! A good OBP guy who was underrated until he had his career year with Boston. After that he became overrated.

Brad Radke, 2 votes: One of the best pitchers in Twins history, Radke had impeccable control and was a 20 game winner once.

Eric Young & Javy Lopez, 1 vote: Lopez probably deserved more while Eric Young should be happy to get one.

Jeremy Burnitz, Ruben Sierra, Phil Nevin, Brian Jordan, Terry Mulholland, and Tony Womack* - 0 votes. Congrats for being on the ballot.

*Womack somehow made the cut over superior players like Edgardo Alfonzo.

Conference Power Rankings: Mid-American Conference

2012-01-07T00:35:00.000-06:00

Wally Szczerbiak is no longer here to help provide
excitement for MAC fans in March. Luckily Ohio is having
some fans talk of an at-large bid thanks to a hot start.

In the 1990's the MAC was one of the best mid-major conferences often sending multiple schools to the NCAA Tournament. In the last decade they've been passed by the MVC, WCC, and arguably the Colonial, too. In fact the conference hasn't earned multiple bids since 1999 when Kent St. (11) and Miami (10) - who had All-American Wally Szczerbiak - each qualified. I'm not trying to pile on but in the past ten NCAA Tournaments (2002-2011) the conference has gone 5-10 with three of those wins coming from Kent St. in 2002.

Unfortunately I've been unable to catch any MAC games except for the Northern Illinois-Purdue tilt which was quite possibly the biggest mismatch I've ever seen between two Division I teams. Follow this link to an accurate assessment by people who actually follow MAC basketball.

MAC Power Rankings

Bernie Williams Keltner List

2012-01-06T19:45:00.003-06:00

I'd like to change gears here for a couple of days and remind everyone that it's baseball Hall of Fame season. My favorite way to analyze retired players is with the Keltner List and I've done a few Keltner Lists on this blog to decipher candidates voters are divided on (Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Jim Rice). As a reminder the Keltner List is a systematical method used to determine the Hall of Fame eligibility of a Hall of Fame candidate created by Bill James. It is comprised of fifteen non-numeric questions that allow the voter (or fan) to evaluate how the player is viewed both historically and when compared to others of his era. This year's most discussed candidate is Bernie Williams.

In Bernie Williams' 16-year career, he played in the postseason twelve
times including six World Series. His career postseason OPS is .850.

Conference Power Rankings: West Coast Conference

2012-01-06T06:20:00.000-06:00

Have you ever been home late on a Saturday night and turned the channel over to ESPN2 or ESPNU and seen some college basketball being played in what looked to be a high school gym? Odds are you were watching a West Coast Conference game. The WCC is comprised of nine small private schools - most of which do not have football - with strong religious affiliations. Gonzaga is the most well known to the casual basketball fan. After all, they've made 13 straight NCAA Tournament appearances winning at least once in ten of those years.
Gonzaga's not the only school to make an NCAA appearance during this run, either. Here's a quick rundown of who has qualified out of the WCC since 1999:

Year	Schools (seed)	Year	Schools (seed)
1999	Gonzaga (10)	2006	Gonzaga (3)
2000	Gonzaga (10), Pepperdine (11)	2007	Gonzaga (10)
2001	Gonzaga (12)	2008	Gonzaga (7), St. Mary's (10), San Diego (13)
2002	Gonzaga (6), Pepperdine (10)	2009	Gonzaga (4)
2003	Gonzaga (9), San Diego (13)	2010	Gonzaga (8), St. Mary's (10)
2004	Gonzaga (2)	2011	Gonzaga (11)
2005	Gonzaga (3), St. Mary's (10)

As the chart shows, six times in the past thirteen years the WCC has sent multiple schools to the Big Dance. Not bad for a mostly obscure conference relegated to playing Saturday night games on the little brother channels of the ESPN network. Prior to this season the WCC was an eight-member conference but newcomer BYU (basketball only) adds some clout to the hardwood. The WCC isn't as deep as the Mountain West but St. Mary's and Gonzaga present challenges just the same. Last year the Cougars earned a three seed and while that's not going to happen this year it's not unreasonable to think that BYU makes this a three-bid league. So the next time you're flipping through the channels in the middle of the night and you see a couple of WCC schools battling it out stay a while and take it in. There's some pretty good basketball out there.

Kevin Pangos looks to lead Gonzaga to an incredible
14th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Now on to the Power Rankings:

St. Mary's 14-2 (3-0) - How impressive was St. Mary's victory over BYU? According to kenpom.com, BYU still ranks 30th in the nation in defensive efficiency even after giving up 98 points to the Gaels. That's some offense.
Gonzaga 12-2 (2-0) - The Zags continue to prove that the road to a WCC conference crown goes through Spokane. A 39 point victory over Portland was a great way to start the conference season.
BYU 13-4 (2-1) - BYU got a reality check when they visited St. Mary's last week. The best win on their schedule is still Oregon so they'll need to beat one of the top dogs to secure an at-large berth.
Loyola Marymount 8-7 (1-1) - Loyola played BYU tough and has a couple of nice wins against UCLA and St. Louis but there is a clear divide between #3 and the rest of the conference.
Pepperdine 7-7 (1-2) - Pepperdine had people believing they could be a spoiler in the WCC until they lost by 29 to St. Mary's. Losing badly at Gonzaga may even hurt their chances of a CBI invite.
Santa Clara 8-6 (0-1) - Thursday night's loss was not the way the Broncos wanted to start the year. A trip to Spokane is next meaning Santa Clara is likely going to be staring 0-2 in the face. This team is better than that and I expect they'll get their act together and make a push for fourth place.
San Francisco 10-6 (0-2) - San Francisco continues to play nobody in the non-conference schedule which probably hurts them when they run into the likes of Gonzaga/St. Mary's/BYU. They may be the fourth best team in the conference or the 8th best. It's too early to really tell but 0-2 puts you closer to last than first.
San Diego 5-9 (0-2) - San Diego's best win to this point is Maine and only two of their losses are by single digits.
Portland 4-11 (1-1) - Portland has played a respectable schedule with few cupcakes but no real world beaters either. With only three wins they're stuck in the basement though they're possibly better than San Diego.

Conference Power Rankings: Big East

2012-01-05T07:12:00.000-06:00

It's no secret the Sportstemps are partial to the happenings in the Midwest and tend to neglect items that happen on the coasts. While the watching games on the West Coast can be a bit inconvenient due to scheduling, East Coast games seem to be on whenever you're flipping through the channels. The world's biggest sports network will pummel the average American with commercials advertising mediocre matchups just because they happen close to home. Let Dick Vitale continue to praise the awesomeness of the ACC just because he was buds with Jimmy V and Dean Smith. And let Doug Gottlieb continue to pretend he knows all just because. That being said, there is some good basketball being played out east and just because we don't have a horse in the race doesn't mean we don't follow what's going on.
I've decided to take a break from the Big Ten this week and start a run-down of the major conferences to provide a quick overview of how each team is doing and where they stand in relation to their league-mates. We'll start with one of ESPN's favorites: the Big East.

The Sportstemps agree there's good bball
in the Big East but regardless of what ESPN
would have you believe, DePaul, USF, and Rutgers still
remain members of the conference meaning the
Big East also contains the Big Least of roundball.

Syracuse 16-0 (3-0) - A perfect 15-0 record to go along with a more than convincing win over Seton Hall. This is a team whose biggest road bump to an undefeated January will be a home match with Marquette.

Power 16: Ringing in the New Year

2012-01-01T13:44:00.001-06:00

What better way for the blog to celebrate the new year than with the first Power 16 of the college basketball season! It's still early and only half the conferences have played a conference game but we're starting to see some separation at the top. Remember, the Power 16 predicts which teams would earn protective seeds if the NCAA Tournament began today.

Marquis Teague may be the best freshman
in the country. He's also the starting PG for
the nation's best team.

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Kentucky	13-1 (0-0)	Kanas, UNC, Louisville
North Carolina	12-2 (0-0)	Michigan St., Wisconsin, Texas
Indiana	13-1 (1-1)	Kentucky, Ohio St., NC St.
Syracuse	14-0 (1-0)	Florida, Stanford, Seton Hall

Kentucky has been the best team this season; they own the best collection of quality wins and their only loss was suffered at IU. I expect them to maintain their position all year. North Carolina looks like another top tier team despite suffering a couple of losses (@UNLV, @Kentucky). Their non-conference schedule was strong and boosts them to the #2 overall at this point. Indiana has home victories over both Kentucky and Ohio St. They may not be able to sustain this level all year but they're pretty darn good and it will be a surprise if they lose at home this season. Despite zero losses Syracuse sits at number four. Going undefeated this long is impressive but it's slightly less impressive when you see they've only played one true road game, tied with Missouri for the fewest in the country.

NCAA Conference Power Rankings: Final list of 2011

2011-12-29T16:34:00.000-06:00

In January I'll begin doing the Power 16 and soon my NCAATournament predictions while continuing the mid-major rankings. I've been asked to do another conference power ranking this month and I think now is a good time. This way we can kind of see how all the conferences stack up with each other before conference play really swings into full gear.

Matt Carlino's transfer from UCLA has been a
revelation for BYU and the entire WCC.

Big Ten - The entire conference enjoyed non-conference play while picking up numerous quality wins including Kentucky and Duke. Have eight or nine teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations while Ohio St. may be the best team in the country. Non-conference record: 123-28.
Big 12 - There's only 10 teams in the Big 12 this year and with the losses of Nebraska and Colorado the conference as a whole is improved. Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri look like potential Final Four teams. Non-conferenc record: 91-24.

Looking Back: Last Chance for Quality Wins

2011-12-27T17:31:00.000-06:00

Happy Holidays everyone! This week marked the last opportunity for many teams to make a statement before the conference slate begins this week. Here are several games from last week that caught my eye:

Resume Building Wins

Creighton 87 - Northwestern 79: Creighton is now 3-0 against the best conference in the country, the Big Ten.
Oklahoma St. 69 - Alabama 52: This is a big victory by a team who's expected to finish in the middle of the Big 12. Alabama is a strong contender for the SEC West crown but this loss should only provide further evidence about how much better the Big 12 is than the SEC.
Indiana St. 61 - Vanderbilt 55: Another big win for the MVC over a sure thing NCAA Tournament team.
Davidson 80 - Kansas 74: This is the biggest win for any team this season. Davidson is now a legit mid-major at-large team.
UNLV 85 - Cal 68: The Runnin Rebels have effectively moved on after being humbled at Wisconsin. This is a team that could win a couple of games in March.

Missed Opportunities

Illinois 74 - Missouri 78: The Illini hung tough for the entire contest but never could get over the hump. If they struggle in BIG play then this loss will hurt.
Missouri St. 68 - West Virginia 70 (OT): This game is one that not only hurts Missouri St. but also affects the entire MVC. Getting a win versus a quality Big East foe on a neutral court would've added to the credibility of the entire conference.
Dayton 64 - Seton Hall 69: Dayton will have a hard time finishing in the top three of the A10 this season so non-conference wins are a great opportunity to prove they're still an NCAA team. Losing at home to a bottom half Big East team does not help.
Northwestern 79 - Creighton 87: I know I've already mentioned this game but for a team who has NEVER (seriously, this is the only BCS school to have never made the NCAA Tournament) qualified for the Big Dance marquee wins are important. Finishing in the middle of the Big Ten won't be enough.

Damaging Losses

Xavier 82 - Hawai'i 84 (OT): Their two losses to Oral Roberts and Long Beach St. shouldn't come as a surprise after the fallout from their fight with Cincinnati. The loss to Hawaii, however, hurts. Xavier is an NCAA Tournament team, no doubt, but this one will hurt their seeding.
Purdue 65 - Butler 67: Losing a game you've led for 39 minutes to a team who is not expected to qualify for the NCAA Tournament hurts.
Washington 72 - South Dakota St. 93: This loss could really affect the RPI for the entire Pac 12. Washington is arguably one of the top three teams so a bad loss to an average DI team in a non-power conference could have ugly ramifications.

NCAA Basketball: Mid-Major Conference Predictions

2011-12-21T22:33:00.002-06:00

We've gotten some decent traffic on the site when putting a new post up about mid-majors. As a follow up to yesterday's post discussing my conference predictions and NCAA Tournament predictions, I've construed a similar post for the most successful mid-majors. Take a look below:

Colonial Athletic Association

Conference Champ: VCU

Other contenders: George Mason, Georgia St., Old Dominion, Drexel

Multiple Bids?: 50%

We all remember what VCU did last season and though they lost several starters they appear to be the best team. Georgia St. and George Mason are also right there and it's anybody's guess who wins the league. Based on the success of this conference in past NCAA Tournaments I could see a bubble team getting the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday.

Horizon League

Conference Champ: Cleveland St.

Other contenders: Milwaukee, Butler, Valparaiso.

Multiple Bids?: 25%

Cleveland St's loss to South Florida may prevent them from earning an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament. Still, they've looked the best in the early going and remain my pick to win their league. Milwaukee looks to be their biggest challenger but I refuse to discount Butler after their success the last two seasons. Valpo may be a stretch but have already beaten Butler to start the conference season.

NCAA Basketball: Conference Predictions

2011-12-21T02:00:00.000-06:00

The non-conference portion of everyone's schedules draw to a close this week. After a weekend off for the holidays, the NCAA basketball season really gets started with conference play. Some conferences will sort themselves out quickly while others may not ever (see Pac 10 in 2009) have a clear-cut order. One thing is sure: conference play is where the majority of teams build their resume for postseason qualification. A strong showing in January and February can override a ghastly start in November. With the NCAA Tournament now selecting 68 teams to the foray, there's an extra four bubble spots to be won. Below I've gone through all the "Power" conferences and projected how things will shake out.

ACC
Conference Champ: North Carolina
Likely Tournament Teams: Duke, Virginia, Florida St.
Need a few breaks: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina St.
Wait til Next Year: Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
The two things that stick out the most to me about the ACC are 1) the conference isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks it is and 2) the only team capable of winning a championship is North Carolina. Virginia has been a pleasant surprise and Florida St. is consistently a tournament team. The middle of the conference will have a couple of teams receive bubble interest but I doubt more than five schools make the tournament with four the most likely outcome.

Mid-Major Rankings: December 2011

2011-12-14T22:29:00.000-06:00

It’s time for another Mid-major Power Ranking! I’ve done a lot of thinking and have decidedto overhaul the teams eligible. There isno clear-cut definition of a mid-major in college basketball. Obviously the Big Six are excluded (Big East,Big Ten, Big12, SEC, ACC, Pac12) but what about leagues such as the MountainWest which routinely sends multiple schools to the NCAA Tournament and hasteams ranked all year long?

I’ve decided that mid-majors should be classified as:

Leagues that do not have Division I football and
Leagues that hope - not expect - to have a school selected as an at-large bid.

For instance, even though the Missouri Valley Conference isat this juncture are the best mid-major conference, they do not have DIfootball and will therefore be included. The Atlantic 10 does not have Division I football (the schools that dojoin another conference such as Temple with the MAC) but routinely expectmultiple schools to participate in the NCAA Tournament and are thereby excluded. Thus, the precedent is set and these are myrankings:

Major League Steroids

2011-12-11T14:11:00.001-06:00

I'll save the longer, more in-depth analysis for Anderson, but with the announcement last night that 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun has been busted for juicing, I had to write something.

I've heard there are studies out there that "prove" that steroid use does not correlate or cause increased performance. There is also the res ipsa loquitur approach of "the thing speaks for itself" that players getting busted are the ones putting up outstanding performances.

Whatever side you fall on, I need to say this...

Top 6 single-season Home Run Performances: Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, McGwire, Sosa, Sosa. All either proved, admitted, or super-duper highly suspicious users.
All-Time Home Run Leader: Barry Bonds. Also in the top 10: McGwire, Sosa, A-Rod...see above.
Oldest pitcher to win a Cy Young: Roger Clemens...same story. Also #3 all-time in strikeouts.

Even if you don't think PEDs can make you swing harder or throw faster, most people would agree that they speed recovery. That's the type of thing that can keep you on top of your game late into your 30s or even your 40s, thus padding the career/all-time stats.

If you take the "suspect" players off the single-season HR records list, only Babe Ruth (twice) and Willie Mays have hit more than 51 HRs after age 31. That's 3 completely honest performances by guys over 31 out of the top 31 overall. That should make you think that maybe power-hitting after 30 is quite a rare, HOF-worthy feat.

Marlins find money under couch cushions, add Jose Reyes

2011-12-05T19:04:00.001-06:00

ESPN reported today that Jose Reyes agreed to a six year $102 million contract. I blogged earlier that the Marlins had money to spend but still actually seeing them use it is a bit of a shock. In 2011 Reyes led the league in batting average and triples and even scored 101 runs despite playing in only 126 games. It was perhaps the finest all around season of his nine year career which is a good thing for a player in their prime years but perhaps a sign of caution for any team looking to sign him to a long-term deal.

Champions Crowned - Top 25 (12/4/11)

2011-12-03T22:34:00.001-06:00

So many chances to give the BCS Committee a collective middle-finger this weekend.....squandered. Or maybe not. As Oklahoma State puts the finishing touches on Oklahoma, and Wisconsin just took the lead after their own version of the Hail Mary revenge against Michigan State, I think it's safe to say we know who will be playing for the National Championship. But few outside the SEC are happy about it.

Read on, young souls.

Read more »

Mid-Major Watch: Ranking Potential At-Large Teams

2011-12-02T20:15:00.001-06:00

I don't know how much basketball everyone is watching and it's way too early to start talking about bubble teams for March Madness, but the talking heads over at ESPN keep saying it's going to be a "chalk year" in the NCAA Tournament. What they mean is they expect the top seeded teams to move along without many upsets occurring along the way. After watching several games the last few weeks, I've come up with the opinion that the major conferences are not that deep this season. It may be a chalk year but I believe we can expect several mid major conferences to have multiple schools qualify for the Big Dance and this is something I like.
Below I've ranked a baker's dozen schools who could earn an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton may rely upon Doug McDermott too much.
Then again, he's so good why not use him as much as possible?

UNLV - When you beat the best team in the country your NCAA Tournament profile looks good. They'll look for an encore in a bout with Wichita St. this weekend.
Gonzaga - Play Illinois this weekend in a game that will say a lot about where the Zags are right now. I believe they're the best team in the West Coast Conference and new addition BYU will only add to the conference resume. Other non-conference games include Michigan St., Arizona, Butler, and Xavier.

Big Ten/ACC Challenge Preview Part 2

2011-11-28T18:36:00.001-06:00

Well, that was interesting. The Big Ten took four out of the six games last night with Ohio St. stealing the show by routing Duke. Tonight the BIG looks for their third straight Challenge title.

Indiana @ North Carolina St. (Wednesday ESPN2, 7:15pm)

Indiana looks improved this year and even has a couple of decent wins over Evansville and Butler as proof. However, this looks to be their toughest game yet and will be used as a measuring stick for their progress. They've done a great job shooting the ball and defending two point shots which may be largely attributed to freshman Cody Zeller. NC State also has been effective scoring this season and defending twos but have been burned by the three. Taking care of the ball may be the Wolfpack's greatest strength so there likely won't be a lot of empty possessions on their end. IU will have to overcome this with excellent shooting of their own if they expect to prevail.

The Pick: IU gets hot from downtown and wins in a barn burner 80-74.

Big Ten/ACC Challenge Preview

2011-11-28T00:10:00.000-06:00

This week the Big Ten/ACC Challenge will kick off for thethirteenth time. ESPN created this event as a way to match the two best basketball conferences up against each other in an attempt to prove which conference had more game (ratings, anyone?). The ACC won the firstten challenges, even winning eight of the eleven matchups in 2006 and2007. In 2009 the Big Ten finally provedvictorious when Ohio St. beat Florida St. in the final game of the challenge.Last year the Big Ten won the challenge again by an identical score of6-5. With the addition of Nebraska, this year will mark the first timeeach conference has an equal number of teams (12) so no one will be leftout. Maryland has the longest active winning streak (6) and Iowa has the longest losing streak (5). Here’s a look at this year’s matchups:

Michigan @Virginia (Tuesday ESPN2, 7pm)

Virginia gets to host one of the BIG’s contenders in thetip-off game. They’ve excelled on thedefensive side of the ball thus far (Drexel only managed 35 points on Nov 19)while playing at a pace Wisconsin would be proud of. Michigan’s only loss thus far came at thehands of Duke in the Maui Invitational. Michigan loves to shoot a lot of 3’s but as a team are shooting 62% ontheir 2’s. It will be interesting to see if Michigan's offense can crack Virginia's stout defense.

The Pick: Michiganin a nail biter 61-58.

One Week to Go - Top 25 (11/27/11)

2011-11-27T17:41:00.000-06:00

I think we all know USC is banned from playing in the Pac-12 Championship and a post-season bowl game, but I didn't realize they were not even allowed to appear in the Coach's Poll and BCS rankings until this past week.

But back to pressing matters: for all the big ticket matchups and upsets of the past few weeks, the Thanksgiving rivalries resulted in almost no surprises. That sets everyone up for a weekend of Conference Championship games and last ditch efforts to play spoiler next week.

Here's where we stand.

Read more »

BCS Bowl Projections

2011-11-25T21:00:00.000-06:00

I started this post a few weeks ago, and then the big weekend of upsets happened and I didn't get back to it. Since tomorrow night I'll be hitting the bottle pretty hard (Ticknor's bachelor party), I figure tonight is a good excuse to do some blogging about the upcoming (and final) announcement of BCS qualifying schools.

Basic rules are that no more than 2 teams from a single conference can be selected to the 5 BCS Bowls (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, BCS Title) unless the #1 and #2 teams in the final BCS rankings are from the same conference, and by some miracle, neither is the conference champion.

[Scenario for that last bit: If Arkansas beat LSU tonight (say 13-10) and the new rankings reflected Arkansas #1, LSU as #2, and Bama as #3. Then Arkansas then loses to Georgia in the SEC title game. 3 SEC schools in BCS bowls (Georgia for the automatic bid, and LSU & Bama in a rematch for the Championship).]

The SEC champion is tied to the Sugar Bowl; the Big Ten and Pac-12 to the Rose Bowl; the Big 12 to the Fiesta Bowl; the ACC to the Orange Bowl. The Big East champion is guaranteed a BCS bowl entry through 2013 but is not tied to a specific bowl.

Finally, assuming that the #1 and #2 ranked schools in the final BCS rankings represent 2 conference champions (as in 2010 with Auburn and Oregon), their corresponding tie-in bowl games receive 1st and 2nd choice of remaining automatic qualifiers and at-large teams, respectively. They cannot "steal" schools based on the previous qualifications above.

If Notre Dame finishes in the top 8 of the BCS, the Irish get an automatic bid. A top 12 finish gives them a chance at one of the at-large spots, but they have only cracked the BCS three times since its inception in 1998. Any other school from a non-major conference can crack the BCS with a few other stipulations. Boise State is the best explanation by example.

Enough talk, more NUMBERS!

Read more »

Early Season Observations: 3 Good & 3 Bad

2011-11-21T08:00:00.000-06:00

There's been a lot of games early in the basketball landscape making it hard to digest all that's happened. It's still way too early to believe everything you see but there have been some telling signs also. Here are some of the things that have stood out to me thus far.

The Good

            The BigTen: In my preseason Power Rankings I listed the Big Ten as the third bestconference. If I were to do an updatenow I’d say they are number two. Ohio State still seems like the only team who will contend for a national title but rest of the conference have played better than expected. The conference has a combined record of 36-5with the worst loss being to Creighton on a neutral floor (though Penn St. wasnever in their game vs. Kentucky).
2.      KentuckyWildcats: Every year Calipari reloads with a top-10 recruiting class. Andevery year Calipari’s teams are among the youngest due to players leaving earlyfor the NBA. Well, this Kentucky teamlooks good and I expect them to be in the top 5 all year.
3.      CreightonBlue Jays: Creighton was hyped up as being one of the top mid-major teamsthis preseason. ESPN pumped them up somuch I was sure they were doomed. Well, so far so good for these BlueJays. A nice win over UAB gave me hopethey would play Iowa well in Des Moines in what Vegas had pinned as a closegame (Creighton -1.5). The game wasnever close as Creighton led by 16 at half time and won by 23. This bodes well for the MVC.

The Bad

1.      ColonialAthletic Association: A year after sending George Mason, VCU, and Old Dominion to the NCAA Tournament last year, Drexel was voted as the preseason favorite in thecoaches’ poll. They’re now 1-2 with a lossto Norfolk St. (finished 269 in the RPI last year) and a loss to Virginia inwhich they only scored 35 points.   OldDominion is 3-2 but was crushed by Northern Iowa and George Mason is in anotherrebuilding year. There won’t be multiplebids in the conference this year.
2.      UtahUtes: Last year the Mountain West was a pretty formidable conference and, although not good, Utah held their own. Now in the Pac-12 it looks like it could be a long year. In their opening game, Utah squeaked by SanDiego Christian for a three point win. They followed that up by getting crushed at Boise St (not a goodbasketball school) while Saturday they lost at home to Montana State. Things don’t look to get any better this weekwhen they take on a Harvard squad who returns their entire roster from lastyear.
3.      UCLABruins: If UCLA were to play Utah right now I’m not sure who would win.UCLA is 0-2 with both losses coming at home, neither of which was to a powerconference team (Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee St.). Also, neither wasclose. The Bruins now head off to Hawaiiwhere they’ll play Div II Chaminade in the first round of the MauiInvitational.

Upset Weekend - Top 25 (11/20/11)

2011-11-19T23:32:00.001-06:00

As I write, I'm watching Andrew Luck finally get his chit together in the 2nd half, and it looks like Stanford will avoid being another top 10 victim this week. The same cannot be said for 4 of my other Top 10s from last week. I'll keep the commentary short for most of the winners to save room for the upsets.

But who deserves the title game?

Read more »

Miami Marlins: A Major Player in Free Agency?

2011-11-17T02:18:00.001-06:00

I recently read on ESPN.com that the Marlins are looking tomake a splash in free agency and have hosted Albert Pujols. At the end of his visit the Marlins made acontract proposal which they believe to be competitive in the hopes he will bein uniform next season to kick of their new stadium. Now Miami (doesn’t that sound weird?) islooking at Jose Reyes and has recently said they would like to sign him in addition to Albert Pujols. They are also considered the odds on favoriteto land Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes. Lastseason the Marlins ranked 13^th in the National League in playerssalary. This was actually an improvementas they ranked 16^th (last), 16^th, and 14^th in2008-2010. How can a team in their economic situation expect to be able to signone – let alone two – free agents this offseason? Or is this just a marketing ploy to show thefans that they’re trying to improve the club as they begin the next chapter inthe franchise’s history?

Follow the jump to see how realistic these aspirations really are.

Scandal Subsides, Football is Played - Top 25 11/13/11

2011-11-13T11:47:00.001-06:00

I'm posting from abroad (Nebraska) today, so I'll keep it short and sweet. With a different channel lineup, there was less focus on the SEC games and more focus on the Big XII. Also, I had the opportunity to watch a full game featuring the Pac-12 since LSU v. Oregon in week 1.

Here's what this weekend taught me. Kansas State is better than I thought. Texas is worse than I thought. I was right about Oregon. Boise State still doesn't deserve National Championship consideration...and should focus on kicking more than trick plays.

Now, where does that leave us?

Read more »

Preseason Conference Power Rankings

2011-11-11T10:00:00.000-06:00

Obviously these rankings are compiled purely on my bestguesses on what will happen during the season. Once the games begin and we have some statistical evidence, my opinionswill change. Basically, don’t put too much stock into these. Let the games begin!

1. Big East - Every year this conferencesends at least eight teams to the tournament. I expect that to hold true toform in 2012 with multiple teams vying for a 1 or 2 seed.

2. Big 12 – No more Nebraska! No moreColorado! Really, these two schools weren’t that bad last year but they’re nottournament contenders either. A ten teamconference that sends five or six schools dancing plus a national titlecontender in Kansas make this conference look good.

3. Big 10 – The BIG lost a lot of talentafter last season but there are some great freshmen on campus. Six teams will likely go dancing with the possibilityof eight come March.

4. SEC – Last year the SEC was justmediocre. That’s partly due to it beingyoung. Now Alabama is ranked, Kentucky seems poised to grab a 1 seed, and a fewother schools look to join them in the Big Dance. The divisions remain imbalanced so we’ll haveto take it for it’s worth.

5. Atlantic Coast – This is going to be adown year for the ACC. Duke and NorthCarolina look good as usual but the bottom of this conference could be awful. That’s never a good thing for your Strengthof Schedule (SOS).

6. Atlantic 10 – This conference isn’treally a power conference but it’s no mid-major either. Xavier and Temple are two excellent programswho will make some noise this year. The middle of the conference appearsaverage so expecting four bids again may be a stretch.

7. Pac 12 – New additions Utah andColorado won’t help this year. Thisconference has been plagued by mediocrity of late and I’m not sure it’ll be anydifferent in 2012. Arizona is overratedin my mind while other contenders Washington, UCLA, and Cal all have big timeflaws. The Pac12 is helped by its solid second tier.

8. Missouri Valley – With the supposed reemergenceof Creighton, the MVC appears to gaining steam as the top mid-major. Also worth watching are Wichita St., IndianaSt., and UNI. This conference is alwaysfun to watch; it’s kind of like the Big 10’s little brother in terms of style.

9. West Coast – This is Gonzaga’s year! I doubt that to be true but all the previews I’veread expect a big improvement from last season. St. Mary’s remains very good,but the team that pushes this conference into the top ten is BYU. That’s a very nice trio.

10. Mountain West – New Mexico St. and UNLVappear to be the front-runners this year. No BYU will hurt the RPI but ColoradoSt. is improving and San Diego St. will still be good. Two bids is a safe betand three won’t be a surprise.

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Season Predictions

2011-11-10T08:00:00.000-06:00

Now that the individual team previews are complete I'd like to do my predictions. Hopefully these will turn out to be more accurate than my 2011 MLB predictions. Remember, the season kicks off Friday but Big Ten conference games won't begin until the final week of December. That's a lot of games before the real season starts. We'll likely learn who's really good and who's really bad but won't learn how the middle of the conference stacks up until they begin playing each other head to head.
A special thanks goes out to Ken Pomeroy for making advanced statistics available to everyone on the internet. His website made information gathering simple and has been a valuable tool in many of my NCAA basketball posts.
Take a look after the jump to see my guess at how it'll all shake out:

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Wisconsin

2011-11-09T15:58:00.000-06:00

Coach: Bo Ryan – 242-91 (.727)

Lost: F Jon Leuer, F Keaton Nankivil, G Tim Jarmusz

Returning: G Jordan Taylor (Sr), G JoshGasser (So), F Mike Bruesewitz (Sr), F Ryan Evans (Jr), C Jared Berggren (RS Jr),G Rob Wilson (Sr), F Duje Dukan (So)

Jordan Taylor can do it all. If not for some guy named
Sullinger Taylor would likely be the #1 candidate for BIG POY.

New faces: G Traevon Jackson, G George Marshal, C FrankKaminsky, PF Jarrod Uthoff(149), C Evan Anderson (Redshirt)

Preview: Every year Wisconsin finishesin the top third of the Big Ten. This year they’ll have their work cut out forthem as two very important cogs graduated. Luckily for Badger faithful 1^st Team All Big Ten guard JordanTaylor returns. In 2010-11 Taylor onlyturned the ball over on 8.5% of his possessions while playing point guard. Lowrates like that are unheard of. He’ll need to sustain his excellent shootingtouch while taking more shots this season if the Badgers are going to remain atthe top of the conference. Alsoreturning is sophomore Josh Gasser who shot 60% on his two’s but only 30% onthrees. He’ll need to improve hisaccuracy from long range to spread the defense and help relieve the load offTaylor. Wisconsin returns a plethora oflarge bodies, none of which do anything that stands out but all of whom can beexpected to be excellent rebounders while solid post defenders. Typically freshmen do not make much of animpact in Madison but the team may be looking for that to change specificallyin regards to Jarrod Uthoff. Uthoff islisted at 6’8” and has a pretty good looking outside shot. I think the team will hope he can take therole left by Keaton Nankivil as he grows into his body and learns the system.He may be the most athletic player on the team, too. Regardless of how Wisconsin attempts to fillthe void left by their departing seniors, I don’t think it would come as asurprise to expect them to play even slower than last season (58.0 possessionsper game) in an attempt to maximize offensive possessions and to try to keepthe game close. Bo Ryan has his work cutout for him.

Shot in the dark at the starting the 5:
PG Jordan Taylor
G Josh Gasser
F Mike Bruesewitz
F Ryan Evans
F Jared Berggren

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Purdue

2011-11-09T06:46:00.000-06:00

Coach: Matt Painter - 138-64 (.683)

Lost: F JaJuan Johnson, G E’Twuan Moore

This was the last time Robbie Hummel stepped foot on a court in a
NCAA game. Purdue fans are ready to put this image behind them
and hope Robbie can lead this young team back to a BIG championship.

Returning: F Robbie Hummel (RS Sr), PG Lewis Jackson(Sr), G Kelsay Barlow (Jr), F DJ Byrd (Jr), G Ryne Smith (Sr), G Terone Johnson(So), F/C Travis Carroll (So), F/C Sandi Marcius (RS So), G John Hart (RS Jr),

New faces: F Donnie Hale, PF Jacob Lawson, G Anthony Johnson (Redshirt)

Preview: Each of the last two seasonsBoilermaker fans believed not reaching the Final Four would be considered adisappointment. We all know what happened. Now Hummel is healthy (presumably) but without fellow classmen JaJuanJohnson and E’Twaun Moore. Perhaps themost fundamentally sound player in the conference, Hummel is able to score fromanywhere on the floor, is a strong rebounder, excellent passer, and a soliddefender. He will need to transform hisgame from facilitator to scorer in order for the offense to be successful, nosmall task for an unselfish player. Alsoreturning is waterbug point guard Lewis Jackson. LewJack is grease lighting at getting to therim but his inconsistent outside shot allows defenses to sag and clog up themiddle. His intense on-ball defense and improved free throw shooting make himan asset to have on the floor. Fellowguard Ryne Smith hit 44% of his threes last year and will need to duplicatethat success again to keep defenses honest. Kelsay Barlow and DJ Byrd are excellent role players capable of guardingthe 1-4 positions while scoring just enough. Without JaJuan Johnson a quartet of players will be looked upon to makeup for his lost production. Travis Carroll and Donnie Hale are the more giftedoffensive players while Sandi Marcius and Jacob Lawson (if he doesn’t redshirt)can cause nightmares on defense. Therewill likely be a lot of mixing and matching throughout the season to maximizematchups. But the team will be lookingmost anxiously at guards Terone and Anthony Johnson to be scorers. Teronestruggled with his shot last year but showed he can slash to the basket. Anthony can fill it up but will need to showhis defense is ready to play for Painter. It will likely take several games for these players to gel and findtheir roles on the court - and with Painter’s track record there’s littlereason to expect they won’t – but once they do, with their bullying defense andmethodical motion offense Purdue will be a team no one wants to face.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG LewisJackson

G Ryne Smith

G TeroneJohnson

F RobbieHummel

F TravisCarroll

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Penn St.

2011-11-08T16:28:00.000-06:00

Coach: Patrick Chambers- 0-0

Lost: G Talor Battle, F Jeff Brooks, FDavid Jackson, F Andrew Jones, G Taran Buie (transfer)

Returning: PG Tim Frazier (Jr), G Jermaine Marshall (RS So),F Billy Oliver (So), G/F Cammeron Woodyard (Sr), F Sasa Borovnjak (RS So), GNick Colella (Jr)

Tim Frazier will need to continue his great passing
but also add some scoring for the Lions this year.

New faces: PG Trey Lewis, SF Ross Travis, C Patrick Ackerman, C Peter Alexis, FJon Graham (Redshirt), G Matt Glover (transfer)

Preview: You’ve got to feel for the returning playersat Penn St. Gone are four starters whoall played more than 75% of available minutes including the best player inprogram history (Battle). Also leavingis head coach Ed DeChellis who did a great job in his last two seasons evengetting the Nittany Lions to the NCAA Tournament last year. Now four new starters will need to be foundunder new head coach Patrick Chambers. Tim Frazier is the one returning starter and will need to be the floorgeneral. He is an adept passer who canget to the rim at times but is not a strong outside shooter and often has trouble taking care of the basketball. He’ll need to improve in these areas to help a team with seriousoffensive deficiencies. Freshman TreyLewis is the most highly regarded recruit and will likely start a lot of games thisyear. Hopefully he’ll be capable of picking up some of the offensive slack.Sasa Borovnjak seems another likely candidate to take a starting spot. Borovnjak has a series of post moves and canrebound but it will be interesting to see how he stacks up against other bigmen in the conference. Finding two other legitimate starters will bedifficult. Of all the remaining playersBilly Oliver seems to have the most promise but has had trouble staying healthy. PatrickAckmeran could see a lot of playing time but will probably need to add girth totake the pounding he’ll encounter during the season. There’s not a lot to like here for thisseason but there is talent that over time can develop and help this programbecome a middle of the conference team. That year is not this year, however, so expect some ugly losses and alast place finish.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG TimFrazier

G Trey Lewis

F Jon Graham

F BillyOliver

F SasaBorovnjak

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Ohio St.

2011-11-08T06:30:00.000-06:00

As a freshman Jared Sullinger was a man
among boys. It's scary to think what he
can accomplish in his sophomore year.

Coach: ThadMatta – 190-57 (.769)
Lost: G/F David Lighty, G JonDiebler, F Dallas Lauderdale
Returning: F Jared Sullinger (So), GWilliam Buford (Sr), G Aaron Craft (So), F DeShaun Thomas (So), G Jordan Sibert(So)
New faces: C Amir Williams(77), PGShannon Scott(53), SF Sam Thompson(50), PF Trey McDonald

Preview: To say the Big Ten is OhioSt.’s to lose would be an understatement. Just like every other contender, the Buckeyes lost several contributingplayers. The key is what’s returning. Unanimously selected as the pre-seasonBig Ten POY, Jared Sullinger hopes to improve upon last season’s dominantperformance. Sullinger made 55% of histwos while posting an excellent 65.1 free throw rate (FT attemptsdivided by FG attempts). Add to that hisincredible rebounding ability and you have the number one candidate fornational player of the year. The onlyaspect he really needs to improve is his midrange game and the early rumors out ofColumbus say he’s lost several pounds with an emphasis on playing away from thebasket more. Scary. I’m sure I wasn’tthe only person surprised with the news of William Buford returning thisseason. Buford is another excellentshooter (44% on 3’s last year) who plays good defense and can run the point ina pinch. He’s a great compliment toSullinger. Point guard Aaron Craftenters his sophomore year as perhaps the most hated player in the conference.His on-ball defense can be described as a real invasion of personal space,harassing players into silly mistakes. DeShaun Thomas could have declared for the NBA draft also but probablywanted to come back just to show he can be a significant contributor as he onlyplayed in about 30% of total minutes last year. He’s long and athletic so expect That Matta to be able to use him justfine. If all of this wasn’t enough reasonfor optimism, Ohio State also brings in one of the nation’s top recruitingclasses. Amir Williams and Shannon Scott could start right away while SamThompson and Trey McDonald could be key reserves. Ohio State is sitting prettyand I'm expecting a deep Tournament run.
Shot in the dark at the starting the 5:
PG Aaron Craft
SG William Buford
F DeShaun Thomas
F Jared Sullinger
C Amir Williams

Let the Offseason Begin!

2011-11-07T22:26:00.001-06:00

Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals on winning the2011 World Series. Now it’s time for thenext season to begin: the offseason. Right away teams will need to decide if they want to keep theirimpending free agents by offering them arbitration or let them walk. In the case of the Oakland A’s, they’ve already saidgoodbye to their entire starting outfield from this season (David DeJesus, CocoCrisp, Josh Willingham). The deadlinefor offering arbitration is November 23. Though teams can contact players and begin negotiations, the signingsdon’t really begin to start moving around until after this deadline.

I’m sure everyone is aware Albert Pujols and Prince Fielderare the top available names this offseason. Even most are aware that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins have the chance toleave the teams they’ve been with their entire careers. Let me bring to yourattention two players who can make a big impact whom you’re not familiar with.

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Northwestern

2011-11-07T10:59:00.000-06:00

I know John Shurna looks like he should be starring
for his high school J.V. team but the guy can really ball.
Too bad he plays defense like there's no foul limit. You get five, man. Just five.

Head Coach: Bill Carmody – 160-176(.476)

Lost: G Michael Thompson, G MikeCapocci

Returning: F John Shurna (Sr), G Drew Crawford (Jr), CLuka Mirkovic (Sr), G JerShon Cobb (So), G Alex Marcotullio (Jr), F DavideCurletti (Sr)

New faces: SG Tre Demps, PGDavid Sobolewski, PF Mike Turner

Preview: Will this be the year theWildcats finally make the Big Dance? Losing Michael Thompson is really going tohurt but the good news is the rest of their core is returning. Northwestern’s strengths are good strengths:low turnover rate, excellent 3-point shooting, and a top-notch overalloffensive efficiency which stems from their distinct style of play that can bedifficult to prepare for. Unfortunately, their flaws are glaring and oftendebilitating. The team was opportunistic in forcing turnovers but simply couldnot stop their opponents from scoring. Last season the NCAA average FG% was47.8 but when playing Northwestern, opponents shot 52.6%. Furthermore, theirpost players have a tendency to pick up lots of cheap fouls. A deep team canovercome this. Northwestern, however, isnot a deep team. Fixing one of these twowould flaws would seem to be enough to push Northwestern into the upper half ofthe conference but it doesn’t seem Carmody or this group players are able toimprove on the defensive side of the ball. The starting five (Shurna, Crawfrod,Mirkovic, Cobb, and one player to bedetermined) should at least continue lastseason’s offensive fireworks. And aslong as Northwestern stays efficient on the offensive end they’ll have a chancefor upsets. Alas, it seems the NCAAwindow has passed this team by without them making an appearance.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

G DrewCrawford

G JerShonCobb

G AlexMarcotullio

F JohnShurna

C LukaMirkovic

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Nebraska

2011-11-06T20:48:00.000-06:00


Brandon Richardson's excellent defense will fit right in the Big Ten. Unfortunately for the Huskers, there will be no more conference games against Colorado.

Coach: Doc Sadler – 89-70 (.560)*

Lost: G Lance Jeter

Returning: C Jorge Brian Diaz (Jr), F Toney McCray (Sr),G Brandon Richardson (Sr), G Caleb Walker (Sr), G Drake Beranek (Sr), C AndreAlmeida (Sr), F/C Brandon Ubel (Jr), G Eshaunte Jones (Jr), G Ray Gallegos (Jr)

New faces: G Bo Spencer (transfer), PG CoreyHilliard, SF Josiah Moore, SF David Rivers, SG Dylan Talley

*Sadler's career record in the Big 12

Preview: Nebraska may not fare as wellin the Big Ten as they did in the Big 12 but they’re no pushover either. Withnine(!) upper classmen the Huskers are an experienced bunch that is perfect forexploring unchartered territory (ie: The Big Ten and it’s raucous venues). They play a methodical style (63.6possessions) that was the second slowest in the Big 12 but should fit right inthe BIG. This team was an awful bunch atshooting threes and getting to the line last season but they do have one thinggoing for them: size. Led by 6’11” JorgeBrian Diaz, 6’10” Brandon Ubel, and the underrated (but overweight) 6’11” AndreAlmeida the Huskers have a formidable front-court that could cause teamsproblems. These three helped Nebraskafinish sixth in the nation last season at limiting opponent’s second chances onthe glass. Guard play appears to be anissue especially now that Lance Jeter has graduated. Caleb Walker seems the most likely candidateto pick up the slack but the team would love for one of the incoming freshmento step up into a starting role. Adding a bit of intrigue to the team istransfer Bo Spencer. Spencer was a good player at LSU but not a star. If he canplay like he did as a sophomore then the Huskers may be on to somethinghere. Nebraska picked the perfect yearto switch to the Big Ten. The conference lost a number of upper classmen makingthis year’s Huskers the most experienced team. It wouldn’t be a shock if they finish as high as sixth but a bottom halffinish is more likely.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

G BrandonRichardson

G CalebWalker

G Bo Spencer

F BrandonUbel

C JorgeBrian Diaz

Bring Clarity Soon (BCS) - 11/6/11

2011-11-06T20:25:00.003-06:00

The new "Game of the Century" didn't disappoint in intensity, but 15 points scored over 60 minutes of football is definitely disappointing for the casual CFB fan. So I think everyone will agree that LSU and Bama have positioned themselves for a BCS National Championship rematch IF the other major players falter. And sadly, I think they will. Which means we're headed for our 6th (?!) straight SEC representation as national champion.

Oh, and Nebraska disappoints me every time I put them anywhere near that top 10.

I need a drink.

Read more »

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Minnesota

2011-11-06T08:17:00.000-06:00

Trevor Mbakwe is the best rebounder in the BIG and
quite possibly the country. His skills around the basket
will keep Minnesota in hunt for a NCAA bid.

Head Coach: Tubby Smith – 80-53 (.602)

Lost: SG Blake Hoffarber, G Al Nolen, C Colton Iverson (transfer)

Returning: F Trevor Mbakwe (Sr), CRalph Sampson III (Sr), F Rodney Williams (Jr), PG Chip Armelin (So), PG AustinHollins (So), G Maverick Ahanimisi (So), PF Maurice Walker (So), F Oto Osenieks
New faces: SG Joe Coleman(121), SG Andre Hollins(110),PG Julian Welch(transfer)

Preview: Last season’s team was a taleof two halves. The team started off 11-1including neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia. Then thewheels came off. Devoe Joseph, disgruntled with his role in the offense,unexpectedly quit and decided to transfer. Starting PG Al Nolen broke his footin January and didn’t return in time to finish the season. After a five gamewinning streak in January, the Gophers finished 1-10 down the stretch toeliminate themselves from NCAA consideration. What a rough end for Hoffarber,maybe the best pure shooter in Minnesota history. So what should expectations be for Tubby’steam in 2011-12? The Gophers are goingto continue to be a force in the paint with the Mbakwe (the nation’s premiereoffensive rebounder) and Ralph Sampson III. Where the team will be hurting is along the perimeter. There’s not a single player on this team whoshould scare opponents from 3-point range. Rodney Williams, despite NBA buzz due to his ridiculous athleticability, will need to finally become a decent basketball player and someone outof Chip Armelin, Julian Welch, and Austin Hollins will need to improve by leapsand bounds in all areas of their game in order for this team to be more than middleof the pack. The biggest question, fair or not, is if the Gophers have anotherdisappointing season will Tubby Smith be willing to stick around and attempt toright the ship or will he head off for greener pastures?

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

G AustinHollins

G AndreHollins

SF RodneyWilliams

PF TrevorMbakwe

C RalphSampson III

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Michigan St.

2011-11-04T22:48:00.000-05:00

Coach: Tom Izzo – 383-161 (.704)

Lost: G Kalin Lucas, F Delvon Roe (retired),G Darrell Summers, G Mike Kebler, F Garrick Sherman

Returning: F Draymond Green (Sr), G Korie Lucious (Sr), PGKeith Appling (So), F Derrick Nix (Jr), F Adreian Payne(So), G Austin Thornton (Jr),

Draymond Green is a joy to watch and is hands down
the most versatile player in the Big Ten.

New faces: SG Brandon Wood(transfer), SF Branden Dawson(20), PG Travis Trice, SG Dwaun Anderson(95),SG Brandan Kearney(127), F Russell Byrd (Redshirt)

Preview: Last season is likely consideredthe most disappointing season in MSU history. A year after making the Final 4with largely the same team, Michigan St. finished in the middle of the pack inthe conference and squeaked into the NCAAs as a 10 seed where they were bouncedin the first round by UCLA. Luckily forIzzo there’s plenty of new talent on hand to replace the four starters helost. The heart and soul of this team isPF Draymond Green. Green is one of themost versatile players you’ll find; at 6’6” 235 lbs he’s able to bang with thebig boys (he finished 56^th nationally in defensive rebound rate) andstep outside and drain a perimeter shot (36.6 3-point % last year). He’s also an excellent defender and good ballhandler. Joining him in the starting lineup will likely be Derrick Nix whoafter two years finally seems to be in shape. Nix is tough to handle on theblock but really offers little else on the offensive end. His partner in crime is fellow big man Adreian Payne. Unfortunately these two combined to make only 51% of theirfree throws. Izzo will look to sophomoreKeith Appling to run the point and although he struggled last year he has theskills to be a big time player in the BIG. Valpo transfer Brandon Wood is an excellent find by Izzo and shouldstart right away and incoming guards Brandan Kerney and Dwaun Anderson may havetheir moments. But the true star islikely freshman Branden Dawson. Dawson can light up the gym on any given night butwill need to focus defensively if he’s going to be great. Izzo has the pieces to have an excellent seasonbut does he have the depth? Either way things should be better than last year.

Shot in the dark at starting the 5:

PG KeithAppling

SG BrandonWood

SF BrandenDawson

PF DraymondGreen

C DerrickNix

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Michigan

2011-11-04T12:12:00.000-05:00

Coach: John Beilein – 67-67 (.500)

Lost: G Darius Morris

Returning: G Tim Hardaway Jr, (So), G/F Zack Novak (Sr),G Stu Douglass (Sr), F Jordan Morgan(So), F Evan Smotrycz (So), F Jon Horford (So), G Matt Vogrich (Jr), F BlakeMcLimans (Jr)
New faces: SG Carlton Brundidge(106), PGTrey Buke(142), PF Max Bielfeldt

Tim Hardaway, Jr. performed beyond
Michigan's wildest dreams last year.
Now that expectations have been
raised can he do it again?

Preview: It’s too bad Darius Morris left for the NBAbecause if he had stayed one more year in Ann Arbor there would be a lot oftalk about how this team could challenge Ohio St. for the Big Ten title. Now it’s Tim Hardaway’s team and hiscontinued improvements last season make me believe he’s up for thechallenge. A 6’5” guard, Hardaway has anice outside shot but excels in drawing contact penetrating to the rim. Hardaway will need to improve his efficiencythough if the Wolverines are going to be successful in March. Seniors ZackNovak and Stu Douglass are perfect role players, doing the little things suchas rebounding and guarding the opponent’s top player that help take thepressure off the younger guys. Three ofthe aforementioned young guys are Jordan Morgan, Evan Smotrycz, and freshmanMax Biefeldt who the team expects will bring a presence on the blocks. Point guard duties will likely fall to TreyBuke, a promising recruit with excellent ball handling skills and a betterthree point shot than Darius Morris. Michigan will continue to employ their crazy offense; relying heavily onthrees (36.9% of Michigan’s points came on three pointers last season), thisteam is loaded in guys who will make you pay for leaving them open.Defensively, the Wolverines run a variety of looks including zone and a 1-3-1which is either highly effective or worthless. Beilein’s squads have made marked improvement in his time in Ann Arborand I don’t think this year will be any different.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG Trey Buke

G TimHardaway, Jr

G StuDouglass

F Zak Novak

F JordanMorgan

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Iowa

2011-11-03T19:00:00.000-05:00

Melsahn Basabe was an absolute force last year. Hawkeye fans
should thank their lucky stars he followed McCafferey to Iowa City.

Coach: Frank McCaffery – 11-20 (.355)

Lost: F Jarryd Cole, PG Cully Payne (transfer)

Returning: G Matt Gatens (Sr), F Melsahn Basabe (So), GBryce Cartwright (Sr), G Eric May (So), F Zach McCabe (So), F Andrew Brommer(Sr), F Devon Archie (Sr), G Roy Devyn Marble (So)

New faces: SG Josh Oglesby(122), C GabeOlaseni, PF Aaron White

Preview: Last year the Hawkeyes showed drasticimprovements in McCafferey’s first season. Unfortunately they still finished4-14 in the Big Ten and their second best player graduated. There’s plenty to like about the futurethough. Bryce Cartwright is an excitingplayer who led the conference in assists per game and Eric May showed flashesof being a reliable complimentary player. What’s got to get you excited if you’re a Hawkeye fan is the how thisyear’s recruiting class is shaping up. No, it’s not a top 10 class but it is leaps and bounds better than theones brought in by Todd Lickliter. Aaron White and sharpshooter Josh Oglesbymay start from the get-go while Gabe Olaseni offers a nice developmental playerwho should make an impact as an upper classman. Furthermore, Melsahn Basabe was the first or second best freshman in theconference last season and was at times unstoppable (vs. OSU last year he putup 22-13 and 6 blocks while guarding Jared Sullinger). He’s a future All BigTen player in the making. This programis definitely moving in the right direction but it’s still at least two yearsaway from making an NCAA Tournament appearance. That’s really too bad for Matt Gatens who is a heck of a player but isunderrated due to having been on some awful teams. Gatens suffered fromLickliter’s offensive style and was constantly misused due to having no otherimpact player on the floor with him for two years. Here’s to hoping for a breakout season fromthe hometown senior.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG BryceCartwright

G MattGatens

G JoshOglesby

F AaronWhite

F MelsahnBasabe

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Indiana

2011-11-03T03:01:00.004-05:00

Coach: Tom Crean – 28-66 (.298)

Lost: G Jeremiah Rivers, G Maurice Creek (injured)

Returning: F Christian Watford (Jr), G Jordan Hulls (Jr), F Tom Pritchard (Sr), G Verdell Jones III (Sr), G Victor Oladipo (So), F Will Sheehy (So), F Bobby Capobianco (Jr), F Derek Elston (Jr), G Matt Roth (Sr), G Daniel Moore (Sr)

New faces: F/C Cody Zeller(15), SG Remy Abell, SF Austin Etherington


Cody Zeller is already the big man on campus and he hasn't even played a game yet. Oh, fickle IU fans.

Preview: While head coach Tom Crean wasn’t given much to work with initially, his tenure has been underwhelming to say the least. Characterized by underperforming (overrated?) recruits, Indiana has taken a firm backseat to instate rivals Purdue and Butler. Fortunately for Crean this may be the year Indiana pulls themselves out of the doldrums of the Big Ten and into NCAA bubble consideration. Before the season even began the Hoosiers realized they will be without dynamic guard Maurice Creek. As tough as it is to lose such a good player, this injury may turn out to be a blessing in disguise in the long run for the program. Freshmen Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehy were both effective players last season but neither averaged more than 20 minutes a game. Now each of these two should offer nice compliments to the team’s best player Christian Watford. Additionally, IU hopes to benefit greatly with the addition of freshman big man Cody Zeller who coaches (and the national media) say will make an impact in the post immediately. Also returning is Jordan Hulls a Damon Bailey type guard who can shoot the lights out but is a little too small and slow to be utilized when his shot’s not falling. It’s hoped the younger players will improve enough to allow Hulls to become more of a role player and less a focal point on the offensive end. With success in this regard the Hoosier offense could be lethal. But the biggest issues this team has in the upcoming season lie on the defensive end. Indiana allowed opponents to make over 36% of their three point attempts and allowed opponents to shoot free throws on over half of their field goal attempts which ranked 333 out of 345 Division I programs. A year of growth should enable IU to improve enough in this area otherwise it will be off to the NIT.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

G Jordan Hulls

G Victor Oladipo

F Will Sheehy

F Christian Watford

F Cody Zeller

Boise State: FTW or FML?

2011-11-02T23:24:00.000-05:00

Boise State has once again found themselves in the enviable position of being a BCS-buster and "Top 5" College Football program. Okay, so the second part of that statement is a stretch, but they do find a way to get this little school from the Gem State into major media outlets each Autumn. And barring any unforeseen upsets, they will once again crack the NCAA Football elitist train wreck known as the BCS this January.

I'm going to assume you know enough about Boise State to know that their field is blue, they like to run trick plays, and none of the major contenders want to play them. But let's talk about how the Broncos could maybe possibly get to the apex that has eluded them for the past ten-plus years of dominating the Pacific Northwest in college football.

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Illinois

2011-11-02T02:57:00.002-05:00

Brandon Paul will be All Big 10 this year. Mark it down.

Head Coach: Bruce Weber – 193-86 (.692)

Lost: G Demetri McCamey, C Mike Tisdale, F Mike Davis, F Bill Cole, G/F Jereme Richmond

Returning: G Brandon Paul (Jr), G DJ Richardson (Jr), C Meyers Leonard (So), F Tyler Griffey (Jr), G Crandall Head (So), G Joe Bertrand (RS So)

New faces: PG Tracy Abrams(58), C Nnanna Egwu(97), SF Michael Henry(39), PF Mike Shaw(59), SF Devin Langford, C Ibrahima Djimde, G Brad Maniscalco (transfer)

Preview: The Fighting Illini lost four seniors who made up the core of their team the past four seasons as well as the highly intriguing G/F Jereme Richmond who declared for the NBA draft but was not selected. Now it’s time for Juniors Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson to step up. As dysfunctional as the team was last season I think most Illini fans will agree with me when I say the team ran more smoothly when these two were on the floor. Both can go nuts from 3 on any given night though improving consistency from long range should be a point emphasis. Paul is the more dynamic player and Weber will probably look to use him as the center of the offense utilizing his playmaking ability. The team will hope Tyler Griffey can add some strength in order to help him bang more down low and sophomore seven-footer Myers Leonard will need to improve by leaps and bounds as he couldn’t have been more raw last season. The incoming talent is really incredible but if they don’t gel better than last season’s senior class Bruce Weber’s time in Champaign will end before their graduation. It’s NCAA Tournament or bust for this team.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG Brandon Paul

G DJ Richardson

F Tyler Griffey

F Mike Shaw

F Nnanna Egwu

Be Afraid (Happy Halloween) - Top 25 (9/30/11)

2011-10-30T12:51:00.002-05:00

Well, a few Top 10 shakeouts that were "expected" and one surprise. Also, Wisconsin comes down to 2 Hail Mary's in their loss to Ohio State, and somehow my beloved Cornhuskers surprised even me in their domination of Michigan State. Boise State is sitting at home this week loving the havoc these conference rivals are wreaking on each other. Only 6 undefeated teams remain, and it was almost 5 by the end of Saturday. Can the chips finally fall their way?

Lets get to some answers...and maybe some more questions.

No One Is Safe - Top 25 (9/23/11)

2011-10-23T14:44:00.001-05:00

WOW.
That's really all that needs to be said about the end of the Wisconsin v. Michigan State game. In case you weren't watching, the Badgers jumped out to an early lead before Russell Wilson made the first few "bad" decisions I've seen this year out of the N.C. St. transplant, including an interception and a safety from intentional grounding. MSU carried that momentum into the 2nd half and led by 14 with about 11 minutes left in the game. But Wisconsin fought back, and tied things up with just 90 seconds left. The Spartans tried to get into FG range, but the final drive sputtered after a Kirk Cousins fumble brought up 2nd & 21. He then completed a mid-range pass bringing up 3rd & 6 when suddenly everything changed...

Read more »

Upcoming schedule and possible layout change

2011-10-20T00:57:00.001-05:00

In late October/early November I'll be rolling out another preview for college basketball's power conferences including a somewhat in-depth look at the Big Ten (BIG). November marks the beginning of the season so I'll try to hold off until then. Besides I know everyone is more interested in football anyway. The posts may come fast and furious or they may start off fast and peter out like most years; right now it's too soon to say. Until then, please continue to enjoy Taege's weekly BCS preview.

On another note, I'm contemplating doing an overhaul of the layout. I like the color scheme fine but it can get annoying when you try to post something and the format goes all out of whack. I'll probably tinker with it this weekend and see if there's anything positive in the new Blogger interface (it's possible we may lose Fred McGriff).

I think that's all I've got for now. Carry on.

Pre-BCS Top 25

2011-10-16T17:26:00.000-05:00

Tonight the first BCS rankings will come out. Pretty sure we all know the top 3 schools, and the order is a little irrelevant since LSU plays Alabama in a few short weeks. What will be interesting is where the Boise (Blowout) Blue Broncos fall. Odds are good they will be short of all the undefeateds from the major conferences, possibly including Clemson and Wisconsin. Speaking of undefeated teams, a few ran into problems yesterday which results in a new team in the Top 10.

It is so....

Read more »

Put up or Shut up!

2011-10-09T14:21:00.001-05:00

Conference play is in full swing, and there were some heavy-hitting matchups among top 25 teams this weekend. A little redemption for Nebraska and Taylor Martinez against Big Ten perennial powerhouse Ohio State. Who cares if the Buckeyes are down this year due to the scandals? The Huskers are trying to hold onto a respectable season after the defense has vastly underperformed so far this year. Also, the Red River Rivalry was not close, and that's why I think Oklahoma continues to be the obvious number 1.

So, without further adieu...

Read more »

Conference Shakedown - 10/1/11

2011-10-02T08:12:00.001-05:00

Some serious matchups between top 25 schools this week. Some schools stepped up big (Bama, Wisc). Others were a letdown (Neb, Va Tech). I will say this much. The B1G Ten has 1 school carrying the torch for the conference right now, and Wisconsin better win out to keep things respectable. The SEC dominated the news again, and it looks like a Big XII v. SEC title is brewing.

Show me whatcha workin with.

Read more »

Top 25 - 9/25/11 (Now It Gets Interesting)

2011-09-25T13:17:00.001-05:00

Now that the "preseason" cupcakes are out of the way for most major programs, it's time to dig in to some serious conference play. True, a few teams broke out the conference matchups right off the bat, but now there's nowhere to hide for everyone else. So this is the final Top 25 before everything gets the James Bond martini treatment.

Let's go.

Read more »

Top 25 - 9/20/11

2011-09-20T18:45:00.000-05:00

A few days late. My apologies....family in town this weekend. Here weeeee goooooooo!

Read more »

Top 25 - 9/11/11

2011-09-11T17:34:00.001-05:00

Ten years later...

This isn't an article about the terrorist attacks or "where was I", but I think it's important to acknowledge something that has definitely had an impact on me in many areas of my life over the last decade.

That being said, it's also my mom's birthday today. Not a great way to remember someone's birthday, but at least it didn't take a historic event to lock it away in my mind. She's been celebrating 9/11 a lot longer than we've been memorializing 9/11/01. Today is still my mom's birthday first, and the anniversary of a National tragedy second.

And onto the new top 25.

Read more »

Super Duper Mega Conferences: Pac-16

2011-09-08T22:44:00.003-05:00

All this talk of superconferences is not new. In fact, when the Big Ten announced they were looking for a 12th team 2 years ago, I put in my two cents (as I always do) that 16-team conferences were right around the corner. Apparently I was just a little bit premature - er, early - in making such a bold claim. But it is certainly looking more and more like a viable possibility.

So, why not some hypothetical Superconferences? Keep in mind, my firsthand knowledge is only by performance in College Football. And college football is the obvious draw here since NCAA basketball already has a playoff system that people are mostly happy with. I'll try to due some diligence to include academic accolades, but no guarantees.

Imagine 4 conferences with 16 teams each resulting in a veritable "King of the Hill" of college football. Mandatory conference review/realignment every 5 years to ensure up-and-comers get their fair shake too. Today's report looks at a hypothetical Pac-16 since they are the focal point among experts right now.

Read more »

The 2011 College Football Season is Here

2011-09-03T22:29:00.001-05:00

What a better way to avoid back-to-back hangovers and save some $$ than by staying in on Saturday night to blog! It's been a while since I've written, so I'm probably a bit rusty. Let's get to it.

Read more »

2011 Trade Deadline - Big Moves

2011-07-31T09:45:00.001-05:00

So, this afternoon is the trade deadline. I expect there will be a flurry of minor moves (relief pitchers) to happen around noon today but there have already been some big trades that I'll quickly recap below.

Phillies acquire Hunter Pence from Houston for prospects Jarred Cosart SP, Jonathan Singleton 1b, Josh Zeid RP, and PTBNL

This move was a bit of a surprise to me. Pence is a good player but that's all. To obtain him Philadelphia gave up three of their top 25 prospects though none of them is a sure thing. The part that makes this deal interesting is that Pence is likely to earn more than $10 million through arbitration next season and then will likely get even more than that in 2013. Basically, he's about to get really expensive. Still, he's a good right-handed hitter and strong defender in right field who will help the Phillies.

Houston, in my opinion, could have done better. Yes, they got three good prospects but since Cosart and Singleton are still in A-ball there is still quite a bit of risk associated with them. I would have tried to get more of a sure thing when trading my best player.

Giants acquire OF Carlos Beltran NY Mets for SP Zack Wheeler and cash
The Giants offense has been absolutely putrid this season. Part of that is due to managment's misconception that Aubrey Huff represents an upgrade over top prospect Brandon Belt but it's also due to the fact that their offense just isn't any good. Putting Beltran in the lineup gives this team an everyday hitter opponents will actually have to be wary of.

For a player who would be a free agent in a couple of months, the Mets did very well here. Plus, Beltran has a clause in his contract preventing any team from offering arbitration (thereby preventing the team from gaining compensation picks when he leaves as a FA). From the scouting reports I've read, Zack Wheeler is still very raw but his ceiling is that of an All-Star major leaguer. Good haul for the Mets.

White Sox trade SP Edwin Jackson, 4C Mark Teahen to Toronto for RP Jason Frasor, SP Zach Stewart
Kenny Williams said he wanted to shed salary and he did ($7.2 million for Teahen this year!). Edwin Jackson was having a good season but Mark Teahen has been a large disappointment since coming to Chicago. In exchange the Sox receive a good reliever in Frasor and an intriguing prospect in Stewart. This is a pretty darn good trade for the Sox in my opinion.
After this trade was finalized the Blue Jays made another move:

Blue Jays trade SP Edwin Jackson, RP Mark Rzepczynski, RP Octavio Dotel, OF Corey Patterson to St. Louis for CF Colby Rasmus, RP Trever Miller, RP Brian Tallet, RP P.J. Walters

It's been no secret Tony LaRussa is not the biggest fan of Colby Rasmus. Why that is, I'm sure only the Cardinals organization knows. Additionally, the Cardinals rid themselves of a couple of relievers they weren't using and a prospect who is no longer one (Walters). The return is just okay. Rzepczynski is a pretty effective lefty who can get guys out from both sides of the plate and is under team control until 2015. Octavio Dotel is decent against righties but shouldn't be counted on in the late innings. Why they took on Corey Patterson I have no idea. I guess he can spot start in center since Rasmus is gone.

I could write an essay on how well I think Toronto did in their two trades. Rasmus has a big fan in this blog, so I guess now we're big fans of GM Alex Anthopoulos. Trever Miller and PJ Walters are not expected to play significant roles for the Jays and were likely just included because that's what it took to get this deal done. Brian Tallet, when he comes off the DL, could have some value though. The amazing part is how they managed to get rid of Patterson since he wasn't even a rostered player in spring training. Now, he's been included in one of the biggest deals of the year. In total Toronto traded four relief pitchers, a decent pitching prospect, and Patterson for Colby Rasmus and Tehean's contract. This took a lot of creativity and flexibility that not all GMs have. Great work by Anthopoulos.

Top 5 Prospects Who Could Move this Month

2011-07-19T20:57:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I wrote about ten players who will likely be moved before this year's trade deadline. In every deal that's made someone (or cash) needs to be going the other way, too. Most contenders won't want to give up a piece of their core so prospects tend to make up the bulk of deadline deals. For many teams prospects are the preferred haul anyway. Below I've listed a few prospects who are likely to be dealt in exchange for help in the final third of the season.

1. Jonathan Singleton 1B, Phillies
With Ryan Howard entrenched at first base for the next several seasons, it's possible the Phillies will look to move their top hitting prospect for some help. Singleton is no sure thing - he's still only 19 and in High A - but he's already shown a knack for taking ball four to go along with his line drive stroke.

2. Arodys Vizcaino/Randall Delgado/Mike Minor SP, Braves
If the Braves are able to acquire a key piece to their team they'll have to give up a good pitching prospect. Everyone should just assume Julio Teheran is untouchable so other teams should turn their focus to three other players rated as B+ or A- prospects. Vizcaino has the highest ceiling but also has battled elbow and back issues. Delgado has the lowest ceiling of the three (he grades a 3rd starter in the majors) but is nearly a finished product and fared better than Teheran did in his cup of coffee. Minor has better stuff than Delgado but doesn't have the injury history of Vizcaino. Plus he's already pitched a fair amount in the majors with success.

3. Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick OF, Red Sox
The Red Sox have never been shy about making a splash to help them get a World Series ring. Kalish once ranked as a top prospect but has battled nagging injuries preventing him from playing to his full potential. Reddick, called to the majors over of Kalish, has really played well lately but many scouts still worry about his lack of plate discipline. Neither of these guys will likely turn into a star but both could bring home a solid left-handed reliever in a poor lefty market.

4. Tanner Scheppers P, Rangers
Scheppers is an enigma. He started off fantastically last season but once he moved to the starting rotation really struggled. He was then moved back to the bullpen where he continued to struggle. This season has been no different. His peripherals suggest a lower ERA than the 5.29 he's currently sporting. Somebody will see the giant P on his back (Potential) and target him in a deal with Texas.

5. Mat Gamel 4C, Brewers
Technically, Gamel's not a prospect. But he hasn't gotten a full time job yet thanks to all of his positions being blocked (Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee, Ryan Braun, and Cory Hart) by established major leaguers. The Brewers don't have a lot to offer and with the Prince's impending free agency it is very likely they go all in. After all they did when they got Sabathia. Gamel is ready now though he'd be best utilized without his glove.