2011 NCAA Predictions revisited

Before conference play began I took a gander (here and here) at who I thought would win each conference regular season and other teams I thought had a shot for the NCAA tournament.  This is where I look back and see how smart (or dumb) I was.

ACC
Conference Champ: North Carolina (defeated Duke on the last day to win the title)
Predicted Champ: Duke (conference tournament champ)
NCAA Teams: 4
Biggest miss: Maryland. Maryland played well according to their rate stats but it didn't show up in the win column as they only went 7-9 in conference play.

Atlantic 10
Conference Champ: Xavier
Predicted Champ: Richmond (although they did win the conference tournament)
NCAA Teams: 3
Biggest miss: St. Louis. Last season St. Louis rallied late and made a push for the NCAAs. I thought Rick Majerus could make the jump with those late season improvements. I was wrong.

Predicting the Field

When the Selection Committee puts together their field they first start by ranking teams on an S-curve from 1-68.  After that each team is placed into regions in attempt to give the higher seeded teams favorable courts to play on all the while keeping each region is fair.  Below is my S-curve ranking (I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Ohio St. beats Penn St. today in the Big Ten Final).  Further explanation and a bracket will follow.

March 13th Madness

No bubble spots were lost during Saturday's action but teams did solidify their standing in the eyes of the committee.

• Marquette is now a lock. There's no doubt in my mind that 11 teams from the Big East will make the tournament. 
• I currently have Alabama as the last team IN. With only three tournament finals in action Sunday, there's a decent chance they're safe.
• One scenario where Alabama fails to qualify is if Dayton upsets Richmond in the Atlantic 10 final. Richmond's win over Temple solidified their status as an at-large team.
• I'm really not too confident in the last two teams I have as IN. Alabama won the SEC West but has too many bad losses and no good wins in non-conference play. The same can be said for Penn St. who has a chance to improve their profile considerably in their bout with Ohio State.

March 12th Madness

No championship games yesterday but that didn't stop things from getting crazy. Several teams have been bumped off the bubble, seed places have changed, and underdogs have emerged.

• The top 4 seeds in the Big Ten were all nearly eliminated yesterday. Only Ohio St. escaped with a win in OT. MSU plays PSU today.
• Notre Dame's quest for a #1 seed ended yesterday when they lost to Louisville in OT. They'll likely be the best 2 seed.
• Alabama defeated Georgia in OT.  This was likely an elimination game for the Bulldogs.
• New Mexico was unable to beat BYU for a third time this season. BYU now faces SDSU (who squeaked by UNLV) in the Mountain West Championship. Both teams are going to be 2 seeds.
• Big winners from Thursday include Michigan St., Penn St., Michigan, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Michigan.
• These teams may have seen their bubble chances slip through their fingers: Georgia, USC, Boston College.  
• I don't know what to do with Illinois.

March 11th Madness

All the major conference tournaments are now underway and the bubble is feeling the effects.  There were no championship games Thursday but there will be a few today. Stay tuned, there's sure to be some upsets along the way.

• UConn's win over Pitt will rectify their late season-slide and will probably bump them up a seed.
• Pitt on the other hand slips a little bit and if Notre Dame and Duke win their conference tournaments they'll knock Pitt out of a 1 seed.
• UAB's loss likely eliminates them from bubble consideration. Conference USA will not get two bids this year unless the committee likes UTEP more than I think.
• New Mexico moved back into bubble consideration by beating Colorado St. They'll face BYU in their next game, whom they've already beaten twice this season.
• Big winners from Thursday include Georgia, New Mexico, and Colorado
  

We're getting to the stage where every win shifts the bubble.  Butler's win in the Horizon League championship game was great news to all the teams on the bubble as it "expanded" the field by one team (I was leaving open the possibility the Horizon League could get two bids had Butler failed to win).
Other notes:

• Villanova's epic collapse shouldn't cost them a spot in the tournament but they are no longer in "lock" territory.  It's likely they'll return in a couple of days after the bubble becomes more clear.
• The bubble is rooting for Utah St. and UAB to come away with conference championships.
• Harvard and Princeton play a winner-take-all game this Saturday for Ivy representation.
• If New Mexico were to beat BYU for a third time they would likely re-enter the bubble discussion.
• Baylor's bubble has nearly popped and Nebraska is now definitely out.

March Madness Updated

With more conference tournament action, more teams have punched their ticket to the dance. Here's another update:

Automatic Bids (8 + 14 one bid-conferences TBD)
America East: TBD
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: TBD
Big South: UNC-Asheville
Big West: TBD
Colonial: Old Dominion
Conference USA: TBD
Ivy: TBD
MAAC: St. Peter's
MAC: TBD
MEAC: TBD
Missouri Valley: Indiana St.
Northeast: TBD
Ohio Valley: Morehead St.
Patriot: TBD
Southern: Southern
Southland: TBD
SWAC: TBD
Summit: TBD
Sun Belt: TBD
WAC: TBD
West Coast: Gonzaga

Locks (35)
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas St., Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Ohio St., Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Duke, Florida St., North Carolina, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, BYU, San Diego St., UNLV, George Mason, Temple, Xavier, Utah St.
Update: I made a mistake in the last post. The Great West does not receive an auto-bid.

Should Be In (3)
Butler, Illinois, Marquette

Bubble (8 spots to fill)
Alabama, Baylor, Boston College, Clemson, Colorado, Georgia, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan St., Nebraska, Richmond, UAB, USC, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington St., Missouri St., Wichita St., St. Mary's
Edit: I somehow forgot the WCC contenders Gonzaga and St. Mary's yesterday.

Ranking the Bubble (first 8 are in):

1. St. Mary's
2. Michigan
3. Richmond
4. UAB
5. Michigan St.
6. Colorado
7. Virginia Tech
8. Boston College
9. Alabama
10. Georgia
11. Baylor
12. Clemson
13. USC
14. Washington St.
15. VCU
16. Memphis
17. Nebraska
18. Wichita St.
19. Missouri St.

So Who's IN and Who's OUT (updated)?

Here's an update on who's going dancing and who still has work to do.

Automatic Bids (4 + 17 one-bid leagues TBD)
America East: TBD
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: TBD
Big South: UNC-Asheville
Big West: TBD
Conference USA: TBD
Great West: TBD
Ivy: TBD
MAAC: TBD
MAC: TBD
MEAC: TBD
Missouri Valley: Indiana St.
Northeast: TBD
Ohio Valley: Morehead St.
Patriot: TBD
Southern: TBD
Southland: TBD
SWAC: TBD
Summit: TBD
Sun Belt: TBD
WAC: TBD
 
Locks (35)
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas St., Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Ohio St., Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Duke, Florida St., North Carolina, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, BYU, San Diego St., UNLV, George Mason, Temple, Xavier, Utah St.

Should Be In (4)
Butler, Illinois, Marquette, Old Dominion

Bubble (8 spots to fill)
Alabama, Baylor, Boston College, Clemson, Colorado, Georgia, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan St., Nebraska, Richmond, UAB, USC, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington St., Wichita St.

I'll continue making updates throughout the week.

Let's do this a different way

Predicting what seeds teams will earn is an exercise in futility right now. Too many games still need to be played, and while I can give each team a seed for where they stand right now, it's not necessarily likely they'll keep that seed by the time the tournament starts in two weeks.  Instead, I've decided to do a conference run down of who is locked in in order to see how many bubble spots are available. Once this is done we will have a greater understanding of the pecking order and what needs to be done for these bubble teams to get in.

Thirty two (32) of the 68 available spots are determined via automatic bid.  The other thirty six spots are up for at-large consideration. Several of these teams are already locks. The ones that aren't are considered "bubble" teams.
Below is a list of current conference leaders in line to receive their conference's auto bid:
1. America East: Vermont
2. Atlantic 10: Xavier
3. ACC: Duke
Continued after the jump.

My guess at the current bracket (Part 2)

Yesterday I did the 1-4 seeds.  Those really weren't too difficult as most anyone can identify the top teams in the nation. Now we start to get into teams who are finishing in the middle of their respective conferences which can be a little more challenging to sort out.

5's
1. Louisville (20-7, 9-5) - Game on Sunday vs. Pitt will say a lot about this team.
2. Vanderbilt (20-6, 8-4) - SEC stinks but Vandy has wins over UNC, St. Mary's, Marquette, Belmont, and Nebraska in non-conference play.
3. St. John's (17-9, 9-5) - Do huge home wins (G'town, ND, Duke, UConn, Pitt) offset bad road loss to Fordham (RPI 246)?  I think so.
4. Syracuse (23-6, 10-6) - Last night's win inches them closer to Louisville. This is the most tightly bunched teams of any seed line in my opinion. A win over Georgetown this week clinches a 5 for them.

6's
1. Kentucky (19-7, 7-5) - Wildcats are 5-5 vs. RPI top 50 and 7-7 vs. RPI top 100. 
2. West Virginia (17-9, 8-6) - Have played nine games against RPI top 25 and are 4-5 in those games. Teams that hold their own this well are worthy of a mid-seed.
3. Xavier (21-6, 12-1) - Hitting their stride at the right time. Teams that finish well are rewarded by the committee.
4. Texas A&M (21-5, 8-4) - Their qualification isn't in doubt but their seeding definitely is. 0-2 against RPI top 25 but 4-1 against 26-50.

7's
1. George Mason (23-5, 14-2) - When you don't play a lot of good competition you need to make the best of your opportunities. 2-1 vs. RPI top 50.
2. Washington (18-8, 10-5) - Undefeated at home but some strange conference road losses (Oregon St., Stanford) probably knock them down a rung.
3. Temple (21-5, 11-2) - Beating Georgetown qualifies as a key win. Getting a win @ Duke this weekend would qualify them as a six seed. No pressure.
4. Missouri (21-6, 7-5) - Need to finish at least fourth in the Big 12 and win a conference tournament game. Thin line between here and a 9 seed.

8's
1. UNLV (20-7, 8-5) - 1-5 record vs. top 25 in the RPI hurts. Winning their conference tournament would give them at least one, maybe two, more of those wins. If that happens the committee will have to evaluate this team closely
2. Florida St. (19-7, 9-3) - Key wins: Duke. Bad losses: Auburn. Advantage: Push.
3. Cincinnati (21-6, 8-6) - Rough, rough remaining schedule. Go 2-2 and will stay at worst as an 8.
4. Utah St. (25-3, 12-1) - This is one tough team for me to gauge how the committee will be judging them. They've dominated their conference and whipped St. Mary's. Then again they've only played three games against potential tournament teams (1-2).

Separating 8's from 9's is nearly impossible. That's why each has won roughly 50% of the time in the NCAA Tournament. Tomorrow things start to wind down as I do 9 - 12's and let you know who the last four at-large teams will be.