2013-14 Conference Predictions

Holiday tournaments are finished and opportunities for non-conference quality wins are waning.  That means whether we realize it or not, the NCAA Tournament is already taking shape.  A lot of teams changed conferences causing a dramatic reshuffling of the college basketball landscape.  The Big East split into two conferences - the Big East and the American Athletic Conference.  The Big Ten will add two teams next year while the ACC loses Maryland but gains Louisville.  All of this likely means we're in for a unique year in college basketball.  Here's a look at what each of the major conferences looks like so far.

ACC
Media's conference champ: Duke
My prediction: North Carolina
Likely Tournament Teams: North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Can Jabari Parker lead Duke to a Final Four?
First he'll need to get his team to the top of the ACC.

Need a few breaks: Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame
Wait 'til Next Year: Maryland, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech
The conference got off to a pretty rough start this season but earned a tie in the BigTen/ACC Challenge.  North Carolina has a couple of baffling losses (Belmont, UAB) but also beat Louisville and Michigan State giving me confidence they'll emerge as the conference's best team at the end of the year.  Duke, Syracuse, and Pitt all look strong in their own rights while Virginia is well positioned despite their loss at Green Bay.

2013 Big Ten/ACC Challenge

For the first time in the now fourteen years of the event, every Big Ten team will be participating in the challenge. Before this year someone was always left out but thanks to the expansion of the ACC every team from the land of the good will get a chance to do their part in proving which conference reigns supreme in basketball this season. This may prove to be more challenging than usual because the ACC has elected to keep the three bottom dwellers from last season (Clemson, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech) out of the event while allowing newcomers Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to participate. The ACC won the first eight challenges and the Big Ten won the next four before the two conferences tied last season.  Here's a look at what's on tap this time around:

Indiana @ Syracuse (Tuesday 7:15pm, ESPN)

This is an intriguing matchup. IU faces off against the team that upset them in last season's NCAA tournament.  Syracuse continues to employ a tough zone defense where they encourage three point attempts while driving to the hoop is difficult. This does not play into Indiana's strengths as so far they are struggling with the outside shot.  Where Indiana does excel is getting to the free throw line. It will be interesting to see if IU is able to continue this trend as high volume free throw shooting teams are often neutralized when facing zone defenses.  Syracuse has been surprisingly efficient on offense despite shooting poorly from the line so far. There's just too much riding on Yogi Ferrell's shoulders in this one though the Hoosiers should have an advantage in the post.

The Pick: Syracuse 77-68.

2013-2014 Men's Big Ten Basketball Preview

Now that I've previewed all twelve teams it's prediction time.  Below I've listed my best guess at the conference standings as well as the awards. In April we can all

Gary Harris & Adreian Payne may be the two
best players in the entire BIG conference.

look back and see how wrong I am.

Standings

	W	L
Michigan St.	14	4
Wisconsin	13	5
Ohio St.	12	6
Michigan	12	6
Purdue	11	7
Iowa	10	6
Indiana	9	9
Illinois	7	11
Penn St.	6	12
Minnesota	5	13
Northwestern	4	14
Nebraska	4	14

All Big Ten First Team
G Aaron Craft - Ohio State
G Gary Harris - Michigan State
G Nik Stauskas - Michigan
F Adreian Payne - Michigan State
F Sam Dekker - Wisconsin

All Big Ten Second Team
G Tim Frazier - Penn State
G Josh Gasser - Wisconsin
G Andre Hollins - Minnesota
F Glenn Robinson III - Michigan
C AJ Hammons - Purdue

Big Ten Freshmen Team
G Derrick Walton, Jr. - Michigan
G Tai Webster - Nebraska
F Zak Irvine - Michigan
F Kendall Stephens - Purdue
C Noah Vonleh - Indiana

BIG Tournament Champ: Michigan State
Defensive player of the Year: Aaron Craft
Big Ten Player of the Year: Adreian Payne

2013-14 Mens' Basketball Big Ten Preview: N & O

This is the third set of team previews for the Big Ten.  Today I'm breaking down N & O.  It's not pretty.

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Head Coach: Tim Miles
Last Season: 15-18 (5-13), tenth in Big Ten
Graduated: G Dylan Talley, C Brandon Ubel, F Andre Almeida
Transfered: None
Left Early: None
New Faces: Tai Webster, Nathan Hawkins, Nick Fuller
2013 recap: Nebraska entered the season with no expectations and they didn't disappoint.  In fact they may actually have brought a tad bit of excitement to some disillusioned fans.  Predicted to finish dead last in the conference, they fought and clawed their way to a tenth place finish.  They even upset Purdue in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. Three starters graduated leaving the roster at its youngest since making the switch from the Big 12.
The Starters:

Pos Players Height Wt Year PG Tai Webster 6'4" 194  Fr. G Ray Gallegos 6'2" 182  Sr. G Shavon Shields 6'7" 219  So. F Leslee Smith 6'8" 255 Jr. C Walter Pitchford 6'10" 234 So.

Freshman Tai Webster is the top freshman on the team this season.  He's a recruit from New Zealand and reports say that he's extremely talented on offense. He'll be looked upon to lead the team from the get-go with guard Ray Gallegos suspended.  Gallegos really improved

Gallegos will need to be on the court not
in court to help Nebraska this season.

his numbers as a junior specifically by increasing his scoring by ten points per game.  He's the team's number one option on offense, at least until Webster establishes himself.  Shavon Shields is listed as a guard but is more of an extremely poor man's Toni Kukoc (that is barely a compliment).  If he makes the leap Nebraska may have something here. Leslee Smith is the type of guy you'd like to come off the bench but Nebraska's not quite there yet. He offers good length and can play out of the high post.  Walter Pitchford is a work in progress at the center position. He's a transfer from Florida so he has some talent. He'll need to develop quickly to help the Cornhuskers stay competitive.
The Bench:

F Terran Petteway 6'6" 209 So. C Kyle Kurowski 6'11" 214 Jr. G Nathan Hawkins 6'5" 198 Fr. G Deverell Biggs 6'0" 175 Jr. G Benny Parker 5'9" 166 So. G David Rivers 6'7" 198 Jr. F Nick Fuller 6'6" 199 Fr.

Forward Terran Petteway is my pick for the team's breakout player. Last season as a freshman he was virtually invisible. Now, with a year of experience he should get an opportunity to prove himself. Center Kyle Kurowski will get minutes backing up Pitchford but don't expect him to make much of an impact in the box score.  That's just not his game.  Guards Nathan Hawkins, Benny Parker, Deverell Biggs, and David Rivers will be fighting for playing time amongst themselves.  I'm not sure who the best option is here but expect the winner of this competition to have a prominent role in coach Miles' rotation.  Freshman Nick Fuller may redshirt this season but his size and length are something that have Husker fans intrigued.
2014 Outlook: The two transfers and three freshman recruits are a nice way to get Tim Miles on the right track. These players bring an improved athleticism and overall skill that the previous regime lacked. Plus now Nebraska has a state of the art facility in which to play their games. There will be excitement early but most of it won't be about the team. If things go right they can finish as high as 8th in the conference, I'm just not willing to bet on it.
Projection: 12th in Big Ten

2013-14 Men's Basketball Big Ten Preview - The Three I's

I started to write all twelve teams at once but felt the overall quality was lacking. Instead I'll break my preview up into groups of three in an attempt to give a better preview for each team.  Today we'll start with the three schools who begin with the letter I.

Illinois Fighting Illini
Head Coach: John Groce
Last Season: 23-13 (8-10), lost in second round of NCAA Tournament to Miami
Graduated: G Brandon Paul, G DJ Richardson, F Tyler Griffey, G Sam McLaurin
Transfered: F Myke Henry
Left Early: None
New Faces: G Kendrick Nunn (#60), F Malcolm Hill (#62), F Austin Colbert (#97), G Rayvonte Rice (transfer), F Jon Eckey (transfer), G Jaylon Tate, C Maverick Morgan
2013 recap: Illinois was coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in school history last year causing coach Bruce Weber to lose his job. Enter John Groce from Ohio University. Taking the same squad (minus Meyers Leonard) Weber left behind, Groce was able to steer his team into the NCAA tournament and almost into the Sweet 16.  The Illini started off hot, winning their first twelve games

Abrams is the unquestioned leader for U of I.
Let's see if the many freshmen can follow.

before falling to Missouri.  Though they finished the conference slate with a losing record they were able to acquire big wins over Ohio State and Indiana. This enabled the Fighting Illini to earn a #7 seed. A win over Colorado matched them up with #2 Miami and they took them to the wire before falling by four. It was a bittersweet end for the seniors on the team - no they didn't reach a Final Four but after 2012's debacle they were able to return to the NCAA's and win a game.
The Starters:

	Player	Height	Wt	Year
PG	Tracy Abrams	6'2"	190	Jr.
G	Kendrick Nunn	6'3"	180	Fr.
G	Joseph Bertrand	6'6"	200	Sr.
F	Jon Ekey	6'7"	225	Sr.
C	Nnanna Egwu	6'11"	235	Jr.

.

Gone is Brandon Paul who posted one of the highest usage rates in the country and second highest in the Big Ten.  Gone is three year starter DJ Richardson and two year starter Tyler Griffey.  Returning is Tracy Abrams who is the unquestioned man at the point.  Last season he struggled as a three point shooter (27%) and his turnovers were a little high.  He'll need to improve in both facets this season if the Illini are going to present any kind of challenge for the Big Ten crown.  With Groce's offense relying heavily on guard play, freshman guard Kendrick Nunn looks to seize a starting spot as a combo guard. A product out of Simeon High School in Chicago, Nunn excels at beating his man off the dribble but his three point shot may be shaky at first which could doom the Illini's attempt to space the floor. Guard Joseph Bertrand also seems to have locked down a starting job.  Last season he led the team in free throw percentage (77%) but he only attempted 44 of them.  He'll need to get to the line more this season and take fewer three point attempts to help improve the efficiency of the offense.  Defensively, Bertrand is underrated. His long arms allow him to reach into passing lanes and poke the ball away.  Jon Eckey seems to have secured the power forward spot with ease. While not physically imposing, Eckey is known for his shot-blocking ability.  He prefers to face the basket as his post-up game is virtually non-existent.  Look for the Illini to rely on him to hit several mid-range jumpers a game in an attempt to clear the lane for their quick guards.  Nnanna Egwu continues to improve but now the Illini are going to need him more than ever.  With an influx of talented centers in the conference Egwu will be tested on a nightly basis.  Hopefully for Illini fans he'll be able to improve on his 6.5 points per game and 5 rebounds per game averages from last season.
The Bench:

G	Rayvonte Rice	6'4"	235	Jr.
G	Mike LaTulip	6'1"	170	So.
G	Malcolm Hill	6'6"	210	Fr.
C	Maverick Morgan	6'10"	250	Fr.
G	Jaylon Tate	6'3"	160	Fr.
F	Austin Colbert	6'9"	210	Fr.
F	Darius Paul	6'8"	220	So.

.

The bench is filled with freshmen who will fight and claw their way in to some form of a pecking order during the non-conference season.  I really don't have much information to add on these players except that Rice and Hill will be leaned on heavily for minutes.  If either or both of these two shows to be a capable three point shooter and solid defender they will find themselves getting a boatload of minutes.  Maverick Morgan has plenty of size and seems to have established himself as Egwu's backup.  Getting exposure in the Big Ten as a freshman can do wonders for his development down the road.  Forwards Darius Paul and Austin Colbert will also find themselves on the floor a lot early on as they look to provide depth.
2014 Outlook: This is a young team that may struggle mightily out of the gate as Groce figures out which players work best together. There don't appear to be any players that will be able to consistently hit three pointers which may cause floor spacing to be an issue.  Groce's teams typically aren't ones to crack down on defense either so offensive efficiency will make or break them on most nights.  There is a lot of talent on hand and the team will improve as the season goes along and may even score a couple of upsets along the way.  It seems unlikely that this team will be able to finish with a winning record in conference play which puts them squarely in the NIT.
Projection: 8th in Big Ten, NIT bid

March 10th, 2012 Madness (updated)

The Buffaloes have found greener pastures in the Pac 12 - ask Nebraska how their
move to the BIG went. Will they finish their impressive run to the conference tournament
final today and secure an automatic bid?

This is the final weekend before the bracket is announced. I've done a comprehensive check of all the teams who hope to avoid the NIT and play for the national title.  Here are a few notes followed by how everything looks at 1:30 pm today.

• Texas' win over Iowa St. pushes them into the "Should be In" category.  Despite a 1-8 record vs. the top 25, they're 48 in RPI meaning the committee will likely select them as an at-large team.
• The lack of upsets in the mid-majors means the bubble remains large (or soft in you prefer ESPN's lingo) enough for multiple power conference bubble teams to qualify.  West Virginia and Seton Hall send their thanks.
• It looks like the Pac 12 will only get two bids this year. Cal is a lock and with Arizona and Colorado playing in the conference tournament, the winner will likely steal a bid and push Washington off the bubble.
• As much as I'd like to see Drexel (27-6) and Iona (25-7) in the tournament there's just a noticeable lack of good wins for both programs.  I can see Drexel squeaking in but Iona's loss in the second round if their conference tournament was probably a death blow.
• I forgot to include Long Beach St. in the bubble team section earlier.  They are definitely in the hunt for an at-large bid if they fail to win their championship game tonight. Win, however, and the point is moot.
• Kentucky's win today assured them of getting the number one seed in the Louisville region.  I don't care who they play, getting that kind of advantage in the first weekend's games makes them a lock for the Sweet 16.
• Xavier's big win over St. Louis should be enough to get them in.  They've got quality wins but were on the bubble thanks to losing five out of six games after their brawl with Cincinnati.
• By advancing to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan St. stays in the hunt for a number one seed.  I've got them #5 on the S-curve right now behind Kansas and just ahead of Missouri.  These three teams are so tightly bunched right now that their final game will determine how they're seeded.
• Ohio St.'s win over Michigan locks them up at a 2 seed.  Duke's loss means they may have fallen behind Ohio St. on the S-curve and if OSU wins tomorrow they'll definitely be ahead of the Blue Devils.
• Bubble teams everywhere let out a sigh of relief when Vanderbilt finished off Ole Miss today.  That's another potential bubble spot that remains open for an at-large team.
• Keep your eye on the Pac 12 tonight.  Whichever team wins is going dancing and the loser likely goes to the NIT.

Updated at 6:25pm.

NCAA Conference Power Rankings: Final list of 2011

In January I'll begin doing the Power 16 and soon my NCAATournament predictions while continuing the mid-major rankings.  I've been asked to do another conference power ranking this month and I think now is a good time.  This way we can kind of see how all the conferences stack up with each other before conference play really swings into full gear.

Matt Carlino's transfer from UCLA has been a
revelation for BYU and the entire WCC.

1. Big Ten - The entire conference enjoyed non-conference play while picking up numerous quality wins including Kentucky and Duke.  Have eight or nine teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations while Ohio St. may be the best team in the country.  Non-conference record: 123-28.
2. Big 12 - There's only 10 teams in the Big 12 this year and with the losses of Nebraska and Colorado the conference as a whole is improved.  Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri look like potential Final Four teams.  Non-conferenc record: 91-24.

Looking Back: Last Chance for Quality Wins

Happy Holidays everyone!  This week marked the last opportunity for many teams to make a statement before the conference slate begins this week.  Here are several games from last week that caught my eye:

Resume Building Wins

• Creighton 87 - Northwestern 79: Creighton is now 3-0 against the best conference in the country, the Big Ten.
• Oklahoma St. 69 - Alabama 52: This is a big victory by a team who's expected to finish in the middle of the Big 12.  Alabama is a strong contender for the SEC West crown but this loss should only provide further evidence about how much better the Big 12 is than the SEC.
• Indiana St. 61 - Vanderbilt 55: Another big win for the MVC over a sure thing NCAA Tournament team.
• Davidson 80 - Kansas 74: This is the biggest win for any team this season.  Davidson is now a legit mid-major at-large team.  
• UNLV 85 - Cal 68: The Runnin Rebels have effectively moved on after being humbled at Wisconsin.  This is a team that could win a couple of games in March.

Missed Opportunities

• Illinois 74 - Missouri 78: The Illini hung tough for the entire contest but never could get over the hump. If they struggle in BIG play then this loss will hurt.
• Missouri St. 68 - West Virginia 70 (OT): This game is one that not only hurts Missouri St. but also affects the entire MVC.  Getting a win versus a quality Big East foe on a neutral court would've added to the credibility of the entire conference.
• Dayton 64 - Seton Hall 69: Dayton will have a hard time finishing in the top three of the A10 this season so non-conference wins are a great opportunity to prove they're still an NCAA team. Losing at home to a bottom half Big East team does not help.
• Northwestern 79 - Creighton 87: I know I've already mentioned this game but for a team who has NEVER (seriously, this is the only BCS school to have never made the NCAA Tournament) qualified for the Big Dance marquee wins are important. Finishing in the middle of the Big Ten won't be enough.

Damaging Losses

• Xavier 82 - Hawai'i 84 (OT):  Their two losses to Oral Roberts and Long Beach St. shouldn't come as a surprise after the fallout from their fight with Cincinnati.  The loss to Hawaii, however, hurts. Xavier is an NCAA Tournament team, no doubt, but this one will hurt their seeding.
• Purdue 65 - Butler 67: Losing a game you've led for 39 minutes to a team who is not expected to qualify for the NCAA Tournament hurts.
• Washington 72 - South Dakota St. 93: This loss could really affect the RPI for the entire Pac 12.  Washington is arguably one of the top three teams so a bad loss to an average DI team in a non-power conference could have ugly ramifications.

NCAA Basketball: Conference Predictions

The non-conference portion of everyone's schedules draw to a close this week.  After a weekend off for the holidays, the NCAA basketball season really gets started with conference play.  Some conferences will sort themselves out quickly while others may not ever (see Pac 10 in 2009) have a clear-cut order.  One thing is sure: conference play is where the majority of teams build their resume for postseason qualification.  A strong showing in January and February can override a ghastly start in November.  With the NCAA Tournament now selecting 68 teams to the foray, there's an extra four bubble spots to be won. Below I've gone through all the "Power" conferences and projected how things will shake out.

ACC
Conference Champ: North Carolina
Likely Tournament Teams: Duke, Virginia, Florida St.
Need a few breaks: Clemson, Virginia Tech,  Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina St.
Wait til Next Year: Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
The two things that stick out the most to me about the ACC are 1) the conference isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks it is and 2) the only team capable of winning a championship is North Carolina.  Virginia has been a pleasant surprise and Florida St. is consistently a tournament team.  The middle of the conference will have a couple of teams receive bubble interest but I doubt more than five schools make the tournament with four the most likely outcome.

Big Ten/ACC Challenge Preview Part 2

Well, that was interesting. The Big Ten took four out of the six games last night with Ohio St. stealing the show by routing Duke.  Tonight the BIG looks for their third straight Challenge title.

Indiana @ North Carolina St. (Wednesday ESPN2, 7:15pm)

Indiana looks improved this year and even has a couple of decent wins over Evansville and Butler as proof.  However, this looks to be their toughest game yet and will be used as a measuring stick for their progress.  They've done a great job shooting the ball and defending two point shots which may be largely attributed to freshman Cody Zeller. NC State also has been effective scoring this season and defending twos but have been burned by the three.  Taking care of the ball may be the Wolfpack's greatest strength so there likely won't be a lot of empty possessions on their end. IU will have to overcome this with excellent shooting of their own if they expect to prevail.

The Pick: IU gets hot from downtown and wins in a barn burner 80-74.

Big Ten/ACC Challenge Preview

This week the Big Ten/ACC Challenge will kick off for the thirteenth time.  ESPN created this event as a way to match the two best basketball conferences up against each other in an attempt to prove which conference had more game (ratings, anyone?).  The ACC won the first ten challenges, even winning eight of the eleven matchups in 2006 and 2007.  In 2009 the Big Ten finally proved victorious when Ohio St. beat Florida St. in the final game of the challenge. Last year the Big Ten won the challenge again by an identical score of 6-5.  With the addition of Nebraska, this year will mark the first time each conference has an equal number of teams (12) so no one will be left out.  Maryland has the longest active winning streak (6) and Iowa has the longest losing streak (5).  Here’s a look at this year’s matchups:

Michigan @ Virginia (Tuesday ESPN2, 7pm)

Virginia gets to host one of the BIG’s contenders in the tip-off game.  They’ve excelled on the defensive side of the ball thus far (Drexel only managed 35 points on Nov 19) while playing at a pace Wisconsin would be proud of.  Michigan’s only loss thus far came at the hands of Duke in the Maui Invitational.  Michigan loves to shoot a lot of 3’s but as a team are shooting 62% on their 2’s. It will be interesting to see if Michigan's offense can crack Virginia's stout defense.

The Pick: Michigan in a nail biter 61-58.

Early Season Observations: 3 Good & 3 Bad

There's been a lot of games early in the basketball landscape making it hard to digest all that's happened.  It's still way too early to believe everything you see but there have been some telling signs also.  Here are some of the things that have stood out to me thus far.

         The Good

1.             The Big Ten: In my preseason Power Rankings I listed the Big Ten as the third best conference.  If I were to do an update now I’d say they are number two.  Ohio State still seems like the only team who will contend for a national title but rest of the conference have played better than expected.  The conference has a combined record of 36-5 with the worst loss being to Creighton on a neutral floor (though Penn St. was never in their game vs. Kentucky).
   2.       Kentucky Wildcats: Every year Calipari reloads with a top-10 recruiting class. And every year Calipari’s teams are among the youngest due to players leaving early for the NBA.  Well, this Kentucky team looks good and I expect them to be in the top 5 all year.
   3.       Creighton Blue Jays: Creighton was hyped up as being one of the top mid-major teams this preseason.  ESPN pumped them up so much I was sure they were doomed. Well, so far so good for these Blue Jays.  A nice win over UAB gave me hope they would play Iowa well in Des Moines in what Vegas had pinned as a close game (Creighton -1.5).  The game was never close as Creighton led by 16 at half time and won by 23.  This bodes well for the MVC.
   
   
   
   
   The Bad
   
   
   1.       Colonial Athletic Association: A year after sending George Mason, VCU, and Old Dominion to the NCAA Tournament last year, Drexel was voted as the preseason favorite in the coaches’ poll.  They’re now 1-2 with a loss to Norfolk St. (finished 269 in the RPI last year) and a loss to Virginia in which they only scored 35 points.   Old Dominion is 3-2 but was crushed by Northern Iowa and George Mason is in another rebuilding year.  There won’t be multiple bids in the conference this year.
   2.       Utah Utes: Last year the Mountain West was a pretty formidable conference and, although not good, Utah held their own.  Now in the Pac-12 it looks like it could be a long year.  In their opening game, Utah squeaked by San Diego Christian for a three point win.  They followed that up by getting crushed at Boise St (not a good basketball school) while Saturday they lost at home to Montana State.  Things don’t look to get any better this week when they take on a Harvard squad who returns their entire roster from last year.
   3.       UCLA Bruins: If UCLA were to play Utah right now I’m not sure who would win. UCLA is 0-2 with both losses coming at home, neither of which was to a power conference team (Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee St.). Also, neither was close.  The Bruins now head off to Hawaii where they’ll play Div II Chaminade in the first round of the Maui Invitational. 

Preseason Conference Power Rankings

Obviously these rankings are compiled purely on my best guesses on what will happen during the season.  Once the games begin and we have some statistical evidence, my opinions will change. Basically, don’t put too much stock into these. Let the games begin!

1.       Big East - Every year this conference sends at least eight teams to the tournament. I expect that to hold true to form in 2012 with multiple teams vying for a 1 or 2 seed.

2.       Big 12 – No more Nebraska! No more Colorado! Really, these two schools weren’t that bad last year but they’re not tournament contenders either.  A ten team conference that sends five or six schools dancing plus a national title contender in Kansas make this conference look good.

3.       Big 10 – The BIG lost a lot of talent after last season but there are some great freshmen on campus.  Six teams will likely go dancing with the possibility of eight come March.

4.       SEC – Last year the SEC was just mediocre.  That’s partly due to it being young. Now Alabama is ranked, Kentucky seems poised to grab a 1 seed, and a few other schools look to join them in the Big Dance.  The divisions remain imbalanced so we’ll have to take it for it’s worth.

5.       Atlantic Coast – This is going to be a down year for the ACC.  Duke and North Carolina look good as usual but the bottom of this conference could be awful.  That’s never a good thing for your Strength of Schedule (SOS).

6.       Atlantic 10 – This conference isn’t really a power conference but it’s no mid-major either.  Xavier and Temple are two excellent programs who will make some noise this year. The middle of the conference appears average so expecting four bids again may be a stretch.

7.      Pac 12 – New additions Utah and Colorado won’t help this year.  This conference has been plagued by mediocrity of late and I’m not sure it’ll be any different in 2012.  Arizona is overrated in my mind while other contenders Washington, UCLA, and Cal all have big time flaws. The Pac12 is helped by its solid second tier.

8.       Missouri Valley – With the supposed reemergence of Creighton, the MVC appears to gaining steam as the top mid-major.  Also worth watching are Wichita St., Indiana St., and UNI.  This conference is always fun to watch; it’s kind of like the Big 10’s little brother in terms of style.

9.       West Coast – This is Gonzaga’s year!  I doubt that to be true but all the previews I’ve read expect a big improvement from last season. St. Mary’s remains very good, but the team that pushes this conference into the top ten is BYU.  That’s a very nice trio.

10.   Mountain West – New Mexico St. and UNLV appear to be the front-runners this year. No BYU will hurt the RPI but Colorado St. is improving and San Diego St. will still be good. Two bids is a safe bet and three won’t be a surprise.

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Season Predictions

Now that the individual team previews are complete I'd like to do my predictions.  Hopefully these will turn out to be more accurate than my 2011 MLB predictions.  Remember, the season kicks off Friday but Big Ten conference games won't begin until the final week of December.  That's a lot of games before the real season starts. We'll likely learn who's really good and who's really bad but won't learn how the middle of the conference stacks up until they begin playing each other head to head. 
A special thanks goes out to Ken Pomeroy for making advanced statistics available to everyone on the internet. His website made information gathering simple and has been a valuable tool in many of my NCAA basketball posts. 
Take a look after the jump to see my guess at how it'll all shake out:

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Wisconsin

Coach: Bo Ryan – 242-91 (.727)

Lost:  F Jon Leuer, F Keaton Nankivil, G Tim Jarmusz

Returning: G Jordan Taylor (Sr), G Josh Gasser (So), F Mike Bruesewitz (Sr), F Ryan Evans (Jr), C Jared Berggren (RS Jr), G Rob Wilson (Sr), F Duje Dukan (So)

Jordan Taylor can do it all. If not for some guy named
Sullinger Taylor would likely be the #1 candidate for BIG POY.

New faces:  G Traevon Jackson, G George Marshal, C Frank Kaminsky, PF Jarrod Uthoff(149), C Evan Anderson (Redshirt)

Preview: Every year Wisconsin finishes in the top third of the Big Ten. This year they’ll have their work cut out for them as two very important cogs graduated.  Luckily for Badger faithful 1^st Team All Big Ten guard Jordan Taylor returns.  In 2010-11 Taylor only turned the ball over on 8.5% of his possessions while playing point guard. Low rates like that are unheard of. He’ll need to sustain his excellent shooting touch while taking more shots this season if the Badgers are going to remain at the top of the conference.  Also returning is sophomore Josh Gasser who shot 60% on his two’s but only 30% on threes.  He’ll need to improve his accuracy from long range to spread the defense and help relieve the load off Taylor.  Wisconsin returns a plethora of large bodies, none of which do anything that stands out but all of whom can be expected to be excellent rebounders while solid post defenders.  Typically freshmen do not make much of an impact in Madison but the team may be looking for that to change specifically in regards to Jarrod Uthoff.  Uthoff is listed at 6’8” and has a pretty good looking outside shot.  I think the team will hope he can take the role left by Keaton Nankivil as he grows into his body and learns the system. He may be the most athletic player on the team, too.  Regardless of how Wisconsin attempts to fill the void left by their departing seniors, I don’t think it would come as a surprise to expect them to play even slower than last season (58.0 possessions per game) in an attempt to maximize offensive possessions and to try to keep the game close.  Bo Ryan has his work cut out for him.

Shot in the dark at the starting the 5:
PG Jordan Taylor
G Josh Gasser
F Mike Bruesewitz
F Ryan Evans
F Jared Berggren