2013 Big Ten/ACC Challenge

For the first time in the now fourteen years of the event, every Big Ten team will be participating in the challenge. Before this year someone was always left out but thanks to the expansion of the ACC every team from the land of the good will get a chance to do their part in proving which conference reigns supreme in basketball this season. This may prove to be more challenging than usual because the ACC has elected to keep the three bottom dwellers from last season (Clemson, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech) out of the event while allowing newcomers Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to participate. The ACC won the first eight challenges and the Big Ten won the next four before the two conferences tied last season.  Here's a look at what's on tap this time around:

Indiana @ Syracuse (Tuesday 7:15pm, ESPN)

This is an intriguing matchup. IU faces off against the team that upset them in last season's NCAA tournament.  Syracuse continues to employ a tough zone defense where they encourage three point attempts while driving to the hoop is difficult. This does not play into Indiana's strengths as so far they are struggling with the outside shot.  Where Indiana does excel is getting to the free throw line. It will be interesting to see if IU is able to continue this trend as high volume free throw shooting teams are often neutralized when facing zone defenses.  Syracuse has been surprisingly efficient on offense despite shooting poorly from the line so far. There's just too much riding on Yogi Ferrell's shoulders in this one though the Hoosiers should have an advantage in the post.

The Pick: Syracuse 77-68.

2013-2014 Men's Big Ten Basketball Preview

Now that I've previewed all twelve teams it's prediction time.  Below I've listed my best guess at the conference standings as well as the awards. In April we can all

Gary Harris & Adreian Payne may be the two
best players in the entire BIG conference.

look back and see how wrong I am.

Standings

	W	L
Michigan St.	14	4
Wisconsin	13	5
Ohio St.	12	6
Michigan	12	6
Purdue	11	7
Iowa	10	6
Indiana	9	9
Illinois	7	11
Penn St.	6	12
Minnesota	5	13
Northwestern	4	14
Nebraska	4	14

All Big Ten First Team
G Aaron Craft - Ohio State
G Gary Harris - Michigan State
G Nik Stauskas - Michigan
F Adreian Payne - Michigan State
F Sam Dekker - Wisconsin

All Big Ten Second Team
G Tim Frazier - Penn State
G Josh Gasser - Wisconsin
G Andre Hollins - Minnesota
F Glenn Robinson III - Michigan
C AJ Hammons - Purdue

Big Ten Freshmen Team
G Derrick Walton, Jr. - Michigan
G Tai Webster - Nebraska
F Zak Irvine - Michigan
F Kendall Stephens - Purdue
C Noah Vonleh - Indiana

BIG Tournament Champ: Michigan State
Defensive player of the Year: Aaron Craft
Big Ten Player of the Year: Adreian Payne

2013-14 Men's Big Ten Basketball Preview: P & W

Today we preview the last three teams in the Big Ten.  There might be a couple of surprises so read on!

Penn State Nittany Lions
Head Coach: Patrick Chambers
Last Season: 10-21 (2-16), last in Big Ten
Graduated: G Nick Colella
Transfered: F Jermaine Marshall, F Jon Graham
Left Early: F Sasa Borovnjak
New Faces: Graham Woodward, Geno Thorpe, John Johnson (transfer)
2013 recap: There was some optimism in State College entering the season and things were looking good after a mild upset victory over Providence in November.  Unfortunately in the following game star point guard Tim Frazier suffered an achilles injury causing him to miss the rest of the season.  Without their star player, the Penn State team fell into complete disarray and began the BIG season 0-14 before finally getting a victory against Michigan.  When the season ended the second best player on the team, Jermaine Marshall, elected to transfer potentially setting back some

May people have forgotten Tim Frazier is
one of the 10 best players in the conference.

progress the team made during the year.
The Starters:

Pos	Players	Height	Wt	Year
PG	Tim Frazier	6'1"	170	Sr.
G	DJ Newbill	6'4"	205	Jr
F	Brandon Taylor	6'7"	235	So.
F	Donovon Jack	6'9"	210	So.
F	Ross Travis	6'6"	225	Jr.

.

Point guard Tim Frazier can do it all.  He's one of the best passers in the nation, knows how to get to the rim, and as a result he gets to the line.  It's not uncommon for him to also lead the team in rebounding. If he's back to form Penn State will be blessed with possibly the league's best player.  DJ Newbill was forced to grow up quite a bit in Frazier's absence.  He became more assertive shooting and learned how to facilitate the offense at the same time.  Look for him to combine with Frazier to give the Nittany Lions one of the conference's best backcourts.  Brandon Taylor is a solid rebounder but more of a role player on offense which works out perfectly for a team whose guards will take the majority of the shots.  If Taylor can establish himself as a decent low post player to compliment his mid-range jumper he could find himself more involved as the season goes along.  Donovan Jack is the "big man" on this team.  Like Taylor, he showed potential as a freshman last year and looks to be an important component for this team's success.  He'll be forced to guard the other big men in the conference and while that may seem daunting he appears to be a solid defensive player.  Ross Travis is the energetic glue guy every team needs. Last season he averaged 7 points and 7 rebounds and coach Chambers has even said he's capable of guarding all five positions.
The Bench:

G	Allen Roberts	6'3"	214	Sr.
F	Alan Wisniewski	6'9"	230	Sr.
G	Graham Woodward	6'0"	170	Fr.
G	Geno Thorpe	6'3"	180	Fr.
F	Julian Moore	6'10"	215	Fr.
G	John Johnson	6'3"	185	Jr.
F	Payton Banks	6'6"	220	Fr.

The bench will likely be pretty short at least until John Johnson is eligible to participate in January.  Guard Allen Roberts is a transfer from Miami (OH) who's experience should enable him to be a quality backup immediately.  In MAC play he proved adept at drawing fouls and was a decent defender.  Geno Thorpe and Graham Woodward are two freshmen who will also get minutes.  Though not ranked in the Rivals top 150, the team seems excited to have them in their midst nonetheless.  Alan Wisniewski will be counted on to provide quality minutes when one of the starting forwards sits.  Freshmen Julian Moore and Payton Banks aren't expected to contribute much but the team could desperately use something out of them.
2014 Outlook: With Tim Frazier back, Penn State is definitely improved from how they finished last season.  The loss of Jermaine Marshall hurts as well as having two potential impact players unavailable to the team due to transfer rules.  The non conference schedule is manageable and should give the team opportunity to sort out a rotation early. Only getting Michigan and Wisconsin once each helps their chances and as a result I expect a bit of a surprise season from the Nittany Lions.
Projection: 9th in Big Ten, NIT invite

2012-13 Big Ten Preview

And we're back!  The summer flew by and unfortunately the blog was neglected as a result. But now it's time for college basketball so I'm feeling a little more energetic this weekend.

I'll start off by giving a short preview of all twelve Big Ten teams and then I'll just pick and choose my way through conferences later. So here we go, my predicted reverse order of finish, the Big Ten preview begins now...

12. Nebraska
Last Season: 12-18, tied for 11th in Big Ten
Graduated: G Bo Spencer, G Toney McCray, G Brandon Richardson, G Caleb Walker, C Jorge Brian Diaz (retired)

Brandon Ubel is the last big man left in Lincoln.
He'll need to anchor this team to avoid a last place finish.

New Faces: Devell Biggs, Benny Parker, Shavon Shields, Sergej Vucetic
Outlook: Poor coach Tim Miles.  In his first season as Huskers head coach he'll have only five returning scholarship players including one starter.  There is potential talent coming in but it will have to wait a year due to transfer requirements.  With a short and shallow roster, Nebraska is destined for a last place finish but with three seniors there will be nights when they compete.
Projected Starters:
G Ryan Gallegos (Jr)
G Dylan Talley (Sr)
G Devell Biggs (Jr)
F Andre Almeida (Sr)
C Brandon Ubel (Sr)
Bench: F David Rivers (So), G Benny Parker (Fr), G Shavon Shields (Fr), C Sergej Vucetic (Fr), G Jordan Tyrance (RS Fr), G Trevor Menke (So), F Kyle Kurkowski (RS Fr)

11. Illinois
Last Season: 17-15, tied for 9th in Big Ten
Graduated/Went Pro: C Meyers Leonard, G Sam Maniscalco

What's going on with this guy? He has all the talent in
the world but his disappointing career to date is a micro-
cosm of Bruce Weber's failed tenure in Champaign.

New Faces: F Sam McLaurin (transfer), Devin Langford (redshirt)
Outlook: There are talented seniors on this roster but none of that talent has materialized for any stretch of length. Now, with no freshmen on the team, Illinois will switch to new coach John Groce's system which relies heavily on a talented point guard. If Tracy Abrams can't handle the job it may be a really long year in Champaign. I think this prediction is conservative though, and still believe there's a chance Brandon Paul finally puts it all together.
Projected Starters:
G Brandon Paul (Sr)
G Tracy Abrams (So)
F DJ Richardson (Sr)
F Tyler Griffey (Sr)
F Nnanna Egwu (So)
Bench: F Mike Shaw (So), F Myke Henry (So), F Ibrahima Djimde (So), Devin Langford (RS Fr)

10. Penn St.
Last Season: 12-20, tied for 11th in Big Ten
Graduated: G Cammeron Woodyard, G Trey Lewis (transfer), G Matt Glover (transfer), C Peter Alexis (retired)

Rumors are Penn St. is challenging the NCAAs anti-cloning
rule regarding Tim Frazier. Five of him would be fun to watch!

New Faces: Brandon Taylor, Donovan Jack, Akosa Maduegbunamm
Outlook: Penn State has an excellent backcourt led by All Big Ten selection Tim Frazier.  The frontcourt, however, is a big question mark. Their lack of experience and talent will be exploited by teams with skilled big men.  This will be a fun team to watch and if the young bigs develop an NIT berth isn't out of the question.
Projected Starters:
G Tim Frazier (Sr)
G DJ Newbill (RS So)
G Jermaine Marshall (Sr)
F Ross Travis (So)
F Sasa Borovnjak (Jr)
Bench: G Nick Colella (Sr), F Patrick Ackerman (So), F Jon Graham (So), F Brandon Taylor (Fr), F Donovan Jack (Fr), G Akosa Maduegbunamm (Fr)

9. Northwestern
Last Season: 19-14, tied for 7th in Big Ten, NIT appearance
Graduated: F John Shurna, F Luka Mirkovic

In a loaded Big Ten, it will take a career year
from Drew Crawford to give Northwestern
some excited high fives post buzzer.

New Faces: Jared Swopshire (transfer), Nikola Cerina (transfer), Tre Demps (redshirt), Michael Turner (redshirt), Alex Olah, Kale Abrahamson, Sanjay Lumpkin, Chier Ajou
Outlook: Last year Northwestern became the only Big Ten school ever to go to the NIT four straight years. Sadly, 2012-13 looks like it will be a fifth.  The young talent on this team is real and just like the last two seasons, there will be a point during the season where people think this team has a shot to earn their elusive NCAA bid.  However, I'm bearish on a defense that was twelfth in the conference last season. Once the young guns get a season under their belts this team can really take off.  If the Wildcats don't make the NCAAs in 2013-14 then I'll be surprised.
Projected Starters:
G Drew Crawford (Sr)
G JerShon Cobb (Jr)
G David Sobolewski (So)
F Jared Swopshire (Sr)
F Alex Olah (Fr)
Bench: G Tre Demps (Sr), G Alex Marcotullio (Sr), F Kale Abrahamson (Fr), G Reggie Hearn (Sr), C Aaron Liberman (Fr), F Chier Ajou (Fr), F Sanjay Lumpkin, G Nikola Cerina (Jr)

8. Iowa
Last Season: 18-17, tied for 7th in Big Ten, lost in second round of CBI tournament
Graduated: G Matt Gatens, F Andrew Brommer, G Bryce Cartwright

Basabe might want to start practicing against
adults if he's to lead Iowa back to the NCAAs.

New Faces: Adam Woodbury, Mike Gesell, Kyle Meyer
Outlook: Iowa made huge strides last season under Fran McCaffery.  The fast pace the Hawkeyes play is a bit refreshing in the grind-it-out Big Ten.  This team could finish anywhere from fifth to tenth. Much of that depends on the incoming freshmen and the improvements made by last year's freshmen. Either way this is a team who should be knocking on an NCAA berth this season.
Projected Starters:
G Mike Gesell (Fr)
G Roy Devyn Marble (Jr)
G Josh Oglesby (So)
F Aaron White (So)
C Melsahn Basabe (Jr)
Bench: F Eric May (Sr), F Zach McCabe (Jr), C Adam Woodbury (Fr), F Gabe Olaseni (So), F Kyle Myer (Fr)

7. Minnesota
Last Season: 23-15, tied for 9th in Big Ten, lost in NIT championship
Graduated: F Ralph Sampson, Chip Armelin (transfer)

Here's to hoping Trevor Mbakwe can be the same player
he was before he tore his ACL. The man was a beast in the paint!

New Faces: Charles Buggs, Wally Ellenson
Outlook: Minnesota must wonder what they've done to upset the basketball gods. Each year they look like a contender only to have injuries severely hamper their roster. Last season was no exception and it took until late in the year for the team to come together. If this team can just stay healthy they can compete with anyone in the conference. I'm not one to bet against history hence my prediction that the Gophers finish in the middle of the pack. That shouldn't prevent this team from qualifying for the NCAA tournament.
Projected Starters:
G Andre Hollns (So)
G Austin Hollins (Jr)
G Joe Coleman (So)
F Rodney Williams (Sr)
F Trevor Mbakwe (RS Sr)
Bench: F Elliott Eliason (RS So), G Charles Buggs (Fr), G Julian Welch (Sr), G Maverick Ahanmisi (Jr), G Wally Ellenson (Fr), F Andre Ingram (Sr), F Oto Osenieks (So),

6. Purdue
Last Season: 22-13, 6th in Big Ten, lost in Round of 32 to Kansas
Graduated: F Robbie Hummel, G Ryne Smith, PG Lewis Jackson, G/F Kelsey Barlow (dismissed)

Purdue fans held many candlelight vigils in an attempt
to rectify Terone's embarrassing .435 FT%.

New Faces: Ronnie Johnson, Donnie Hale (redshirt), AJ Hammons, Raphael Davis, Jay Simpson
Outlook: The Boilermakers are a team in transition. The Baby Boilers are officially gone and are replaced by one of the nation's top recruiting classes. Led by guard Terone Johnson and seven footer AJ Hammons, Purdue will look to clamp down on defense and make the lane a place opponents avoid .  There will be struggles for this team but head coach Matt Painter has only failed to win twenty-two games once in his career as a head coach.
Projected Starters:
G Ronnie Johnson (Fr)
G Terone Johnson (Jr)
F DJ Byrd (Sr)
F Donnie Hale (RS Fr)
C Sandi Marcius (RS Jr)
Bench: G Raphael Davis (Fr), G Anthony Johnson (RS So), C AJ Hammons (Fr), F Jacob Lawson (So), F Jay Simpson (Fr), F Travis Carroll (Jr), F Dru Anthrop (Sr)

5. Wisconsin
Last Season: 26-10, 4th in Big Ten, lost in Sweet 16 to Syracuse
Graduated: PG Jordan Taylor, G Rob Wilson

By channeling his inner Manute Bol,
(draining 3's, blocking shots), this string bean
has become a very good player.

New Faces: Sam Dekker, Zak Showalter
Outlook: The Badgers lost All-American candidate point guard Jordan Taylor and their top perimeter player Josh Gasser will miss the season after tearing his ACL.  Things may seem dark but haven't we learned not to count Bo Ryan out? Wisconsin has never finished worse than fourth in his eleven years with the program.  I'm picking them fifth here but that's no slouch in the country's top conference. Also, I expect them to make the Sweet 16 for the sixth time in the last eleven years. This is a solid program.
Projected Starters:
G George Marshall (RS Fr)
G Ben Brust (Jr)
F Ryan Evans (R Sr)
F Mike Bruesewitz (Sr)
C Jared Berggren (R So)
Bench: G Sam Dekker (Fr), C Frank Kaminsky (So), G Traevon Jackson (So), C Evan Anderson (RS So), F Duje Dukan (Jr), G Jordan Smith (So), G Zak Showalter (Fr), F Zach Bohannon (RS Jr)

4. Michigan
Last Season: 24-10, tied for 1st in Big Ten, lost in first round to Ohio
Graduated: F Zack Novak, G Stu Douglass

Trey Burke is flipping awesome. The Wolverines
might want to win some tournament games this year
because I doubt he's back for his junior season.

New Faces: Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Nik Stauskas, Max Biefeldt, Spike Albrecht, Caris Levert
Outlook: The Wolverines surprised many by winning a share of the Big Ten last season but followed that up with a very disappointing loss in the first round of the NCAAs. This season they're bringing in the conference's top recruiting class and look to reclaim a share of the title.  While their starting lineup may be the best outside Bloomington, their depth remains questionable. Still, this is a team that should earn a top four or five seed in the Big Dance come April.
Projected Starters:
G Trey Burke (So)
G Tim Hardaway (Jr)
F Glenn Robinson III (Fr)
F Mitch McGary (Fr)
C Jordan Morgan (Jr)
Bench: F John Horford (RS So), G Matt Vogrich (Sr), G Eso Akunne (Sr), C Blake McLimans (Sr), G Nik Stauskas (Fr), F Max Biefeldt (RS Fr), G Spike Albrecht (Fr), G Caris Levert (Fr)

3. Ohio St.
Last Season: 31-8, tied for 1st in Big Ten, lost in Final 4 to Kansas
Graduated/Went Pro: F Jared Sullinger, G William Buford, Jd Weatherspoon (transfer), Jordan Sibert (transfer)

Sure Craft fouls on every play, but that's more a knock on
officials than him.  Expect him to lead the BIG in steals again.

New Faces: G Amedeo Della Valle
Outlook: Ohio St. may have lost its two best players last season but that is no reason to expect them to fall down the Big Ten standings. Aaron Craft is possibly the most tenacious defender in the college ranks while DeShaun Thomas is still an underrated scorer.  Though many people may not recognize the names on the roster, everyone should remember Thad Matta doesn't rebuild. He just reloads.
Projected Starters:
G Aaron Craft (Jr)
G Lenzelle Smith (Jr)
F DeShaun Thomas (Jr)
F Sam Thompson (So)
C Amir Williams (So)
Bench: PG Shannon Scott (So), F Evan Ravenel (Jr), F LaQuinton Ross (So), G Alex Rogers (Jr), G Amedeo Della Valle (Fr)

2. Michigan St.
Last Season: 29-8, tied for 1st in Big Ten, lost in Sweet 16 to Louisville
Graduated: F Draymond Green, G Brandon Wood, F Austin Thornton

Some may say this was Branden Dawson's date
with Karma for the way he spurned Purdue.

New Faces: Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Matt Costello, Kenny Kaminski
Outlook: The Spartans again have loaded up their non-conference schedule in an attempt to prepare for the NCAA tournament.  Izzo knows they may struggle early but as Branden Dawson continues to improve (torn ACL) and the team gels they'll be right there in Big Ten play. I'm calling an Elite 8 appearance for this team.
Projected Starters:
G Keith Appling (Jr)
G Gary Harris (Fr)
F Branden Dawson (So)
F Adreian Payne (Jr)
F Derrick Nix (Sr)
Bench: PG Travis Trice (So), F Denzel Valentine (Fr), G Brandon Kearney (So), F Alex Gauna (So), G Kennan Wetzel (So), F Matt Costello (Fr), G Kenny Kaminski (Fr)

1. Indiana
Last Season: 27-9, 5th in Big Ten, lost in Sweet 16 to Kentucky
Graduated: G Verdell Jones, F Tom Pritchard, G Matt Roth

I feel you, Oladipo. You're the most under-
rated player in the BIG. Hello NBA.

New Faces: Yogi Ferrell, Peter Jurkin, Jeremy Hollowell
Outlook: Want to know why IU is the consensus #1 team in the country? Last year they ranked fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency and the entire starting lineup is returning. The top bench players are also coming back and IU landed a top five recruiting class. The defense may still be bad but with this offense that shouldn't be a problem.  This team should win the conference and go to the Final Four.
Projected Starters:
G Yogi Ferrell (Fr)
G Victor Oladipo (Jr)
F Will Sheehey (Jr)
F Christian Watford (Sr)
F Cody Zeller (So)
Bench: F Derek Elston (Jr), G Jordan Hulls (Sr), G Remy Abell (So), Maurice Creek (RS Jr), F Austin Etherington (So), F Jeremy Hollowell (Fr), C Peter Jurkin (Fr)

All Big Ten First Team
C Cody Zeller
G Victor Oladipo
G Aaron Craft
G Trey Burke
F DeShaun Thomas

All Big Ten Second Team
G Terone Johnson
G Brandon Paul
G Tim Frazier
C Jared Berggren
F Trevor Mbakwe

Big Ten/ACC Challenge Preview

This week the Big Ten/ACC Challenge will kick off for the thirteenth time.  ESPN created this event as a way to match the two best basketball conferences up against each other in an attempt to prove which conference had more game (ratings, anyone?).  The ACC won the first ten challenges, even winning eight of the eleven matchups in 2006 and 2007.  In 2009 the Big Ten finally proved victorious when Ohio St. beat Florida St. in the final game of the challenge. Last year the Big Ten won the challenge again by an identical score of 6-5.  With the addition of Nebraska, this year will mark the first time each conference has an equal number of teams (12) so no one will be left out.  Maryland has the longest active winning streak (6) and Iowa has the longest losing streak (5).  Here’s a look at this year’s matchups:

Michigan @ Virginia (Tuesday ESPN2, 7pm)

Virginia gets to host one of the BIG’s contenders in the tip-off game.  They’ve excelled on the defensive side of the ball thus far (Drexel only managed 35 points on Nov 19) while playing at a pace Wisconsin would be proud of.  Michigan’s only loss thus far came at the hands of Duke in the Maui Invitational.  Michigan loves to shoot a lot of 3’s but as a team are shooting 62% on their 2’s. It will be interesting to see if Michigan's offense can crack Virginia's stout defense.

The Pick: Michigan in a nail biter 61-58.

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Season Predictions

Now that the individual team previews are complete I'd like to do my predictions.  Hopefully these will turn out to be more accurate than my 2011 MLB predictions.  Remember, the season kicks off Friday but Big Ten conference games won't begin until the final week of December.  That's a lot of games before the real season starts. We'll likely learn who's really good and who's really bad but won't learn how the middle of the conference stacks up until they begin playing each other head to head. 
A special thanks goes out to Ken Pomeroy for making advanced statistics available to everyone on the internet. His website made information gathering simple and has been a valuable tool in many of my NCAA basketball posts. 
Take a look after the jump to see my guess at how it'll all shake out:

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Purdue

Coach: Matt Painter - 138-64 (.683)

Lost: F JaJuan Johnson, G E’Twuan Moore

This was the last time Robbie Hummel stepped foot on a court in a
NCAA game.  Purdue fans are ready to put this image behind them
and hope Robbie can lead this young team back to a BIG championship.

Returning:  F Robbie Hummel (RS Sr), PG Lewis Jackson (Sr), G Kelsay Barlow (Jr), F DJ Byrd (Jr), G Ryne Smith (Sr), G Terone Johnson (So), F/C Travis Carroll (So), F/C Sandi Marcius (RS So), G John Hart (RS Jr),

New faces:  F Donnie Hale, PF Jacob Lawson, G Anthony Johnson (Redshirt)

Preview: Each of the last two seasons Boilermaker fans believed not reaching the Final Four would be considered a disappointment. We all know what happened.  Now Hummel is healthy (presumably) but without fellow classmen JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore.  Perhaps the most fundamentally sound player in the conference, Hummel is able to score from anywhere on the floor, is a strong rebounder, excellent passer, and a solid defender.  He will need to transform his game from facilitator to scorer in order for the offense to be successful, no small task for an unselfish player.  Also returning is waterbug point guard Lewis Jackson.  LewJack is grease lighting at getting to the rim but his inconsistent outside shot allows defenses to sag and clog up the middle. His intense on-ball defense and improved free throw shooting make him an asset to have on the floor.  Fellow guard Ryne Smith hit 44% of his threes last year and will need to duplicate that success again to keep defenses honest.  Kelsay Barlow and DJ Byrd are excellent role players capable of guarding the 1-4 positions while scoring just enough.  Without JaJuan Johnson a quartet of players will be looked upon to make up for his lost production. Travis Carroll and Donnie Hale are the more gifted offensive players while Sandi Marcius and Jacob Lawson (if he doesn’t redshirt) can cause nightmares on defense.  There will likely be a lot of mixing and matching throughout the season to maximize matchups.  But the team will be looking most anxiously at guards Terone and Anthony Johnson to be scorers. Terone struggled with his shot last year but showed he can slash to the basket.  Anthony can fill it up but will need to show his defense is ready to play for Painter.  It will likely take several games for these players to gel and find their roles on the court - and with Painter’s track record there’s little reason to expect they won’t – but once they do, with their bullying defense and methodical motion offense Purdue will be a team no one wants to face. 

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG Lewis Jackson

G Ryne Smith

G Terone Johnson

F Robbie Hummel

F Travis Carroll

January 23: Power 16

I've been slacking lately and haven't posted a Power 16 yet. Remember, this is not who I necessarily feel the top sixteen teams are but instead these are the sixteen teams that currently hold an inside track to receiving a protected seed (1-4) on Selection Sunday.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
Ohio St.	20-0 (7-0)	2-0
Duke	18-1 (5-1)	1-0
Pittsburgh	19-1 (7-0)	4-1
Kansas	18-1 (3-1)	1-1

Ohio St. continues to roll along, putting up the most impressive undefeated record thus far. Their big road win in Champaign over the weekend cements their spot as the #1 overall seed.  Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and shouldn't expect many difficult matchups along the way. They've edged their way back to #2 overall.  Pitt is possibly the best team in the Big East and is a serious National Title contender.  Kansas home loss to Texas drops them down two spots but they're still clinging to a number one seed.

Feb 14: Power 16

We're one week closer to March and while many teams have solidified themselves as contenders there's been some movement in the Power 16.

 Now that Evan Turner is back in the fold, Ohio St. should be 

considered a serious contender for the Final Four.

1. Kansas - Only Kansas St. has challenged the Jayhawks in conference play.  This team should cruise the rest of the way.  Chances of #1 overall seed: 80%
2. Kentucky - Tennessee played them tough at Rupp Arena last night but Kentucky is starting to silence the critics who claim there is too much youth on this team to take them seriously.  Odds of #1 seed in NCAA: 70%
3. Syracuse - Just when you thought the Orange were gaining on Kansas they lose at home to a bubble team. Ouch.  Still 24-2 is mighty impressive.  Play at Georgetown this week so the ride might get a bit bumpy.  Odds of #1 seed: 67%
4. Villanova - Sneaky win in Morgantown last Monday solidifies Villanova a notch above the next four.  If you like scoring you like Villanova basketball.  Odds of #1 seed: 50%
5. Purdue - Statement win in East Lansing shows these Boilers should be taken seriously.  A 5-1 record against the RPI top 25 makes them the most likely candidate to challenge for a #1 seed.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
6. Duke - Crushed the Terrapins yesterday.  There will be no challenger for the Duke's regular season title although they still have three road games left.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
7. West Virginia - A bad week for the Mountaineers as they lost both at home to Villanova and at Pitt in a 3 OT thriller.  A loss this week may cost them #2 seed.
8. Kansas St. - A win over Iowa St. moved the Wildcats to 7-3 in Big 12 play.  They're now at the easier part of their schedule with the only game they should have much trouble in is a road game against the Jayhawks.  If they don't slip up beforehand, KSU may have locked up a 2 seed.
9. Michigan St. - This is where the rankings get fuzzy.  Lucas is back and so is the Spartans' mojo.  Indiana appears to be the unfortunate victim of MSU's renewed focus before Ohio St. comes to town Saturday.
10. Georgetown - Wildly inconsistent.  The Hoyas play extremely well against good teams yet have losses to Old Dominion, home to S. Florida, and now at Rutgers.  Expect a tight game in their first round match-up of the NCAA tournament.
11. Ohio St. - The win at Illinois should act as a wakeup call to everyone.  Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball and Ohio St. is an elite team when he plays.  If the Buckeyes defeat Purdue this week they'll vault into the #2 seed group.
12. New Mexico - Steve Alford has this team ready for the NCAA Tournament.  The Lobos had a couple of impressive road wins this week against UNLV and Utah.
13. Wisconsin - The home loss to Illinois was a bit of a shocker.  Still, Wisconsin is 9-4 in Big Ten play and completely annihilated the Hoosiers yesterday.
14. Brigham Young - There's no shame in losing on the road to UNLV but losing there shows the Cougars aren't unstoppable.  They may be a better team than New Mexico but we'll have to wait until the end of the month to prove it.
15. Vanderbilt - A complete trouncing of Tennessee keeps the Commodores in the Power 16.  Next Saturday's home match vs. Kentucky could be the game of the weekend.
16. Gonzaga - Sweeping the top three teams in the WCC moves the Zags into the Power 16 for the first time this year.  The WCC doesn't participate in Bracket Busters so the Zags next meaningful game won't take place until their conference tournament.  For now they need to continue to win to avoid slipping in the minds of the committee.

Also considered: Butler, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV

2009-2010 Big Ten Preview Part 2

5. Michigan

Coach: John Beilein hopes this is the year. The entire starting lineup is returning from last season and another solid recruiting class adds depth. Sims and Harris are stars while Perry, Gibson, and Novak are great role players. The conference schedule is always tough but with a couple of superstars and a tricky zone defense this is the type of team that can get hot and make some noise in tournaments.

Lineup: G Laval Lucas-Perry, G Manny Harris, F Zack Gibson, F Anthony Wright, F DeShawn Sims

Bench: Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, Darius Morris, Matt Vogrich

Star: One of the most versatile players in the Big Ten, Manny Harris contemplated going pro at the end of last season. Not only is he the most likely player to lead the conference in scoring, he's also a threat for a triple double every night.

Top Freshman: Darius Morris is a big guard that will be a role player this season. Next year though - especially if Harris leaves - expect him to be on nightly highlight reels.

NCAA Seed: 7

4. Minnesota

Coach: Tubby Smith coaxed a fourth place finish out of last season's Gopher squad. This year the expectations are even higher. Ralph Sampson III is expected to take the next step to team with veteran guards Al Nolen and Lawrence Westbrook. The fact that Tubby seems to like coaching in Minnesota (as opposed to using this as a stopgap for a more prestigious program) has had a great effect on the recruiting. Once again, the Golden Gophers have a top recruiting class. The added depth and quality give this team an outside shot at the Big Ten title.

Lineup: PG Al Nolen, SG Lawrence Westbrook, SF Damian Johnson, Rodney Williams, C Ralph Sampson III

Bench: Colton Iverson, Devoe Joseph, Blake Hoffbarber, Paul Carter

Star: Nagging injuries have prevented Lawrence Westbrook from playing an entire season. If he's able to make complete a year unscathed, Minnesota will get some recognition on the All Big Ten team.

Top Freshman: Royce White. Minnesota's Mr. Basketball chose to stay in-state instead of attending other high profile schools like Kansas and Michigan St. A possible red-shirt season is likely to keep him off the court this year but he may be the best Gopher player since Kris Humphries or Bobby Jackson.

NCAA Seed: 6

3. Ohio State

Coach: Thad Matt has won two Big Ten championships, has gone to the national title game, and averages 25 wins a game. What more does he need to accomplish to be considered one of the elite coaches? For three straight years Ohio State has lost a 7'0" freshman to the NBA. Next season it is almost certain they will be without Turner. Luckily 2010 is probably the nation's #1 recruiting class. I don't know what else Matta can do to increase his recognition but winning 2 games in the NCAA Tournament seems likely yet again for the Buckeyes.

Lineup: SG David Lighty, SG William Buford, SG Jon Diebler, SF Evan Turner, Kyle Madsen

Bench: Dallas Lauderdale, Jeremie Simmons, PJ Hill

Star: Evan Turner is the best player in the Big Ten. No one else is capable of filling up a stat sheet as consistently. Without a true PG, Turner fills in. When the team needs to go small, Turner plays power forward. Expect him to be a lottery selection in the NBA draft.

Top Freshman: No freshmen on roster.

NCAA Seed: 4

2. Michigan State

Coach: Tom Izzo reached the national title game last year for what seems like the tenth time. This year's squad returns all the guards and has some solid freshmen as well. Unfortunately three big men have graduated leaving a gaping hole down low. Expect some struggles early in the year against taller teams particularly North Carolina. But these games will allow Izzo's youngins to grow into their roles as the Big Ten season gets underway. I think Ohio State is a better team but Izzo has worked magic before.

Lineup: PG Kalin Lucas, SG Durrell Summers, F Delvon Roe, F Raymar Morgan, F Garrick Sherman

Bench: Draymond Green, Chris Allen, Korie Lucious, Derrick Nix

Star: Kalin Lucas doesn't look like a typical big-time scorer but that's just what he is. The junior averaged 14.7 ppg last year and also took home the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award.

Top Freshman: Garrick Sherman is starting as a freshman. Although he doesn't have the high ceiling most other freshman starters have had under Izzo, he'll be a solid Big Ten player for four years.

NCAA Seed: 3

1. Purdue

Coach: Matt Painter's desire to recruit players that will stay four years and gel into a team has paid off. The Baby Boilers are no more, instead they're a team ranked in the top ten that expects to compete for the Final Four. It's possible Johnson or Hummel could leave at the end of the season. If that's the result of a Final Four appearance I think most Purdue fans will tell you it's worth it. The 2010 recruiting class is similar to the one three years ago so it's hopeful the cycle is about to begin anew.

Lineup: G Kelsey Barlow, G E'Twan Moore, G Chris Kramer, F Robbie Hummel, C JaJuan Johnson

Bench: Keaton Grant, Ryne Smith, DJ Byrd, Patrick Bade

Star: Robbie Hummel's ability to hit the timely three and find the open man are qualities that make the Purdue team tick. The Boilers really struggled when he went down with a back injury last season.

Top Freshman: Kelsey Barlow is taking over at PG due to Lewis Jackson's foot injury. Long and quick, he has the potential to be an elite on-ball defender.

NCAA Seed: 2

2009-2010 Big Ten Preview

Another exciting season of NCAA Basketball is underway. As I did last year, I will again predict the Big Ten standings for the upcoming season. Here we go:

11. Iowa

Coach: 2009 proved to be even more difficult to stomach than anyone expected in Iowa City. Last year I wrote:

Lickliter's biggest challenge is getting good players. He's been the first to admit that it's a challenge to recruit Big Ten players and not just guys who fit his scheme.

This appears even more apparent this season after a mass exodus of last year's team. If the Hawkeyes don't improve upon their 15-17 record this could be it for Lickliter.

Lineup: G Matt Gatens, G Anthony Tucker, G Cully Payne, F Jarryd Cole, F Brennan Cougill

Bench: Eric May, Devan Bawinkel, Aaron Fuller, Andrew Brommer

Star: Matt Gatens is head and shoulders the best player on this team. With his versatility and high percentage shooting, he could go down as one of the best Hawkeyes ever.

Top Freshman: Cully Payne

NIT Bid: No

10. Indiana

Coach: Tom Crean has shown he is a master recruiter and a patient mentor. He inherited a Hoosier team bereft of all talent and only managed to win one conference game. This season, with the conference's top recruiting class and a few of last year's recruits on board, IU looks to make some noise as they attempt to move up the ranks. They're still a year away though.

Lineup: PG Verdell Jones III, G Maurice Creek, G Jeremiah Rivers, F Tom Pritchard, F/C Christian Watford

Bench: Derek Elston, Devan Dumes, Jordan Hulls, Bobby Capobianco

Star: Look for Verdell Jones to really improve now that he has some legitimate players around him.

Top Freshman: Christian Watford

NIT Bid: No

9. Penn St.

Coach: Last year may have been the most successful season in Nittany Lion history. Snubbed by the NCAA despite finishing 4th in the Big Ten and winning 23 games, this team went on to win the NIT championship proving its doubters wrong. Yet Ed DeChellis knows this season may be even tougher after the departure of three seniors. But as long as Talor Battle is around this team will scare people.

Lineup: G Talor Battle, G Jeff Brooks, F Andrew Jones, G Chris Babb, F David Jackson

Bench: Tim Frazier, Cammeron Woodyard, Adam Highberger

Star: Talor Battle was all Big Ten last year as a sophomore. This guy is a true game changer.

Top Freshman: Tim Frazier

NIT Bid: Yes

8. Illinois

Coach: Bruce Weber got his team back to the tournament last year. However the good news ends there. When Sr. guard Chester Frazier got went down late in the year, the Illini offense went with him. Putrid offensive showings vs. Purdue in the Big Ten tournament and in a blowout loss to 12th seeded Western Kentucky have left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. Unfortunately last year's team had several seniors so a minor step back may occur this season. For the first time in his tenure, Weber managed to bring in two of the top freshmen in the conference. If these two can contribute right away look for the Illini to return to the NCAA Tournament.

Lineup: G Demitri McCamey, G Brandon Paul, G DJ Richardson, F Mike Davis, C Mike Tisdale

Bench: Alex Legion, Bill Cole, Dominique Keller, Jeffrey Jordan

Star: Mike Davis exploded last year. Named to the Big Ten 2nd team, he averaged 11.3 pts/game and led the Big Ten in rebounding.

Top Freshman: DJ Richardson. Richardson's team went 33-0 and won the state title his senior year.

NIT Bid: Yes

7. Northwestern

Coach: Bill Carmody almost got his team where no Northwestern team had ever been: the NCAA Tournament. With a team loaded with seniors this looked to be the year, if ever, they would finally make it. Unfortunately a pre-season injury to the team's best player may prevent the Wildcats from reaching their full potential. Good teams tend to struggle against NWU as their 1-3-1 zone defense causes opponents fits. I'm not sure Carmody's job is on the line but if they don't make the tournament it will be another disappointing season in Evanston.

Lineup: G Michael Thompson, G Jeremy Nash, G/F Drew Crawford, F John Shurma, C Luka Mirkovic

Bench: Kyle Rowley, Alex Marcotullio, Ivan Peljusic

Star: With Kevin Coble out for the year, Michael Thompson assumes the reins of team superstar. Only 5'10", he's a strong rebounder and penetrator

Top Freshman: Drew Crawford

NCAA Bid: No

6. Wisconsin

Coach: Never count Bo Ryan out. I, for one, thought last season's team would be awful. Although they didn't dominate the way some Badger teams of the past have done, they still won 20 games and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. This season will be even more of a challenge after his top two players graduated. Expect more Wisconsin basketball: slow, grinding offense and an in-your-face defense focused on rebounding. I don't see a lot of talent on this squad but as I already said, don't count Bo Ryan out.

Lineup: PG Trevon Hughes, G Jason Bohannon, G/F Tim Jarmusz, F Keaton Nankivil, F Jon Leuer

Bench: Ryan Evans, Jordan Taylor, Mike Bruesewitz

Star: Trevon Hughes is lightning quick and one of the best defensive players in the country.

Top Freshman: Mike Bruesewitz

NCAA Bid: Yes

Purdue vs. Ohio State Rd 2

	PURDUE (6)	Pts		RB		A		Stls		Fg%		3pt%		FT%
PG	Chad Austin	17.0		3.6		3.1		1.2		0.416		0.359		0.768
G	Kenny Lowe	10.1		2.4		1.7		0.8		0.442		0.398		0.863
F	Cuonzo Martin	13.1		3.8		2.0		0.6		0.472		0.451		0.777
F	Carl Landry	17.4		7.1		1.2		1.0		0.602		0.232		0.714
C	Brad Miller	12.0		6.7		2.5		2.0		0.572		0.259		0.754
B:	G Willie Deane	14.4		3.6		2.4		1.4		0.426		0.355		0.763
	F Robbie Hummel	11.9		6.1		2.6		1.2		0.489		0.464		0.882
	F Brian Cardinal	12.0		5.7		2.1		2.0		0.461		0.365		0.761

Austin: Strong guard that was the go-to guy on this team.  Liked to post up his man and could blow by him.  His clutch basket at the buzzer to beat IU in Bloomington has immortalized him.  Honors: 1st team All Big Ten 1997, 1998

Lowe: This was a guy whose first two years were spent just being the fifth man on the floor.  His last two years were plagued by injuries but he somehow single handedly carried them his senior year.  Pretty much erased other team's best player as a defender.  Honors: Defensive Player of the Year 2003, 2004

Martin: This is a 6'6" guy with no real position.  He played center when Glenn Robinson was on the team and after he left he moved to "scorer".  His senior year averaged over 18 a game and became the Big Ten's all time leading 3 point shooter.  He's a nice compliment to Austin.  Honors: 1st team All Big Ten 1995

Landry: JUCO transfer whose time in W. Laf may best be remembered as being one of two players who could actually play.  Averaged 19 a game and was a heck of a rebounder.  Honors: 1st team All Big Ten 2007

Miller: A much better NBA player than college.  Skills include great passing, good shooting, and was pretty careful with the ball.  However he was not a game changer, something this Purdue squad needs to advance far in the tournament.  

Bench: Willie Deane led the Big Ten in scoring his senior year.  When he was hot, he was HOT but when he wasn't he did little to affect the game in other areas.  Robbie Hummel was a 1st team all-conf as a freshman and fills up the stat sheet.  Brian Cardinal or "the janitor" is the hustle machine.

Strengths: FT shooting, 3pt shooting, defense 

Purdue has no individual who can really take over instead having several guys who have "moments" therefore relying on intense defense to force turnovers and create fast break opportunities.  Cuonzo Martin is a career 45% shooter from 3 and everyone else save Landry will venture out there as well.  No weaknesses on the line so save your fouls.

Weaknesses: Lack of dominating scorer, depth

No Big Dog on this team so points may be hard to come by.  If Martin is double teamed will Austin be able to create enough opportunities to keep Purdue in the game?  Hummel is a solid player but you don't really want to rely on him for big minutes.  Cardinal is a solid player but in crunch time he can take some maddening shots.

	OHIO STATE (3)	Pts		RB		A		Stls		Fg%		3pt%		FT%
G	Scoonie Penn	15.4		3.8		4.0		2.1		0.415		0.345		0.754
G	Michael Redd	19.6		6.2		2.5		1.6		0.447		0.318		0.648
G	Ron Lewis	13.2		4.1		2.0		0.9		0.418		0.330		0.796
C	Terence Dials	11.9		6.6		0.7		0.7		0.558		0.000		0.648
C	Greg Oden	15.7		9.6		0.7		0.6		0.616		0.000		0.628
B:	G Mike Conley	11.3		3.4		6.1		2.2		0.518		0.304		0.694
	G Brian Brown	10.7		3.5		2.9		1.0		0.467		0.378		0.723
	C Ken Johnson	8.3		5.8		0.5		0.3		0.539		0.000		0.629

Penn: Dynamite in the backcourt.  Not a big passer but was actually better than Redd in college.

Honors: 1st team All Big Ten 1999, 2000; Player of the Year 2000

Redd: Redd could score but actually was a better passer in college.  He was not the player you see today in the NBA.  However, when teamed with Penn this backcourt went nuts.  Took Ohio State to the Elite 8 in 2000.  Honors: 1st team All Big Ten 2000

Lewis: This G/F is a nice compliment to the big men.  He can rebound a little, play a little defense, and shoot the three.  The team's best FT shooter.

Dials: A lumbering giant who didn't have a lot of skills offensively but was just so big teams couldn't stop him.  Honors: 1st team All Big Ten 2006; Player of the Year 2006

Oden: We know a lot about this guy.  Polished in the lane, very good rebounder, but Ohio State will count on him to be an enforcer since they are lacking a stopper on the perimeter.  Honors: 1st team All Big Ten 2007; Defensive Player of the Year 2007

Bench: Mike Conley, another freshman NBA lottery pick, is an impressive substitute to have on the bench, guard Brian Brown won 1st team honors in 2002 largely due to his offensive efficiency, and center Ken Johnson gives OSU three 7 footers that won first team honors.  Johnson is the most one dimensional of the three, leading the conference in blocks at least two times.

Strenghts: Size, size, size, and familiarity on the perimeter

This team is HUGE.  Oden, Dials, Johnson will clog the lane making life hell for opponent's big men.  After having spent 3 years as teammates in Columbus, Penn and Redd start together in our tournament, a trait several teams wish they had.

Weaknesses: Free throw shooting, three point shooting

This team's free throw shooting stinks.  Only two guys are over 70%.  If the game is close OSU could be in a bit of trouble.  Also, there are no real threats from three.  When OSU is playing the giants and the outside shot isn't falling the lane is going to be very crowded.

What to Expect:

A boring, low scoring game with several shot clock buzzers ringing in your ears.  Ohio State and Purdue both will stress slowing it down.  Ohio State will have trouble running with the bigs so they will be forced to work it down low.  Purdue will be sending double teams left and right trying to confuse Ohio State while Lowe works his magic on Penn or Redd.  Expect both teams to work inside out and in Ohio State's case inside again.

Matchup to watch:  Carl Landry vs Greg Oden

Seeing as how this matchup really happened, it will be fun to watch again.  Landry will get his points but Oden will get his boards.  Which stat is more important will be determined by  how everyone else plays.