Mid-major rankings: Ground Hog Day, 2012

There's been quite a shakeup in the Mid-major rankings since the last one came out.  It's nitty gritty time for a lot of these schools and the upcoming Bracketbusters could provide a last chance for statement wins.  Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow won't provide six more weeks to the college basketball season but it also shows that there's still time for teams to build their resumes.  Don't be surprised if a team towards the bottom of this list makes a move around conference tournament time.

St. Mary's has found success recruiting most of their players from Australia.
I wonder, does the ball go around the rim counter-clockwise down there too?

1. Creighton (21-2) – The Bluejays are on a roll and are the best mid-major team in the country right now.  There are still a couple of tricky conference games left but they host Wichita St. and will host Long Beach St. in the Bracketbuster.  
2. St. Mary's (21-2) – While we didn't know much about St. Mary's in the latest Power Rankings, we know plenty now.  They're 10-0 in the WCC and their two losses came at Denver (so-so), and to Baylor (forgiven).  
3. Murray St. (21-0) – Undefeated and untested in conference play, the Racers will host St. Mary's for their Bracketbuster.  If they win an undefeated season will be in their grasp.
4. Harvard (18-2) – The Crimson remain undefeated in the Ivy League though their loss to Fordham in January took a little shine off their resume.
5. Wichita St. (19-4) – Starting 10-2 in the Missouri Valley would get a little more publicity most years but this team still hasn't answered the number one question: can they beat anybody good?  They'll have to win their rematch with Creighton to prove it as their Bracketbuster matchup with Davidson isn't going to provide much help.
6. Gonzaga (17-3) – Gonzaga's a decent school and a good bet to make the dance but don't expect much once there.  Their best win is Xavier and they lost by 19 to St. Mary's.  They have won 12 of their last 13 though.
7. Middle Tennessee (20-3) – I never would've guessed this team would be so successful this season.  They thumped UCLA, split with Belmont, and played a hot Vanderbilt team tough.  They may not earn a good seed in March but they'll give whomever they play quite a game.
8. Long Beach St. (16-6) – Of their six losses five are to at-large teams. They've got wins over Pitt and Xavier so beating Creighton would be icing on the cake. They, too, are undefeated in conference play (Big West).
9. BYU (18-6) – BYU has won every game they're supposed to except one (Loyola) but they're lacking the signature win needed to give their bubble much credential.  With no Bracketbuster on the docket, and still two games with Gonzaga, BYU have little margin for error.
10. Davidson (16-5) – Their win over Kansas likely put them in the NCAA Tournament but they still need to finish strong to keep ahold of an at-large bid.  Wichita St. comes to town in a couple of weeks for another chance at a quality win.
11. VCU (19-5) – VCU lack the quality wins necessary for an at-large berth but they're in a three-way tie for first in the Colonial.  They'll play Northern Iowa for their bracket buster.
12. Cleveland St. (18-4) – The Horizon's most likely bet for representation in the NCAA Tournament, Cleveland St. has won 8 of their last 10 gets to play the two Chicago schools before  their date with Valpo.
13. Akron (15-7) – It looks as if this team is just hitting their stride. They've actually got a couple of decent wins putting them in position for a potential at-large bid if they finish strong.  They can't afford to lose to Oral Roberts in the Bracketbuster.

Just missed: Iona, Belmont, Drexel

NCAA Basketball: Mid-Major Conference Predictions

We've gotten some decent traffic on the site when putting a new post up about mid-majors.  As a follow up to yesterday's post discussing my conference predictions and NCAA Tournament predictions, I've construed a similar post for the most successful mid-majors.  Take a look below:

Colonial Athletic Association

Conference Champ: VCU

Other contenders: George Mason, Georgia St., Old Dominion, Drexel

Multiple Bids?: 50%

We all remember what VCU did last season and though they lost several starters they appear to be the best team.  Georgia St. and George Mason are also right there and it's anybody's guess who wins the league. Based on the success of this conference in past NCAA Tournaments I could see a bubble team getting the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday.

Horizon League

Conference Champ: Cleveland St.

Other contenders: Milwaukee, Butler, Valparaiso.

Multiple Bids?: 25%

Cleveland St's loss to South Florida may prevent them from earning an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament.  Still, they've looked the best in the early going and remain my pick to win their league.  Milwaukee looks to be their biggest challenger but I refuse to discount Butler after their success the last two seasons.  Valpo may be a stretch but have already beaten Butler to start the conference season.

Mid-Major Rankings: December 2011

It’s time for another Mid-major Power Ranking!  I’ve done a lot of thinking and have decided to overhaul the teams eligible.  There is no clear-cut definition of a mid-major in college basketball.  Obviously the Big Six are excluded (Big East, Big Ten, Big12, SEC, ACC, Pac12) but what about leagues such as the Mountain West which routinely sends multiple schools to the NCAA Tournament and has teams ranked all year long?  

I’ve decided that mid-majors should be classified as:

• Leagues that do not have Division I football and
• Leagues that hope - not expect - to have a school selected as an at-large bid.

For instance, even though the Missouri Valley Conference is at this juncture are the best mid-major conference, they do not have DI football and will therefore be included.  The Atlantic 10 does not have Division I football (the schools that do join another conference such as Temple with the MAC) but routinely expect multiple schools to participate in the NCAA Tournament and are thereby excluded.  Thus, the precedent is set and these are my rankings:

Mid-Major Watch: Ranking Potential At-Large Teams

I don't know how much basketball everyone is watching and it's way too early to start talking about bubble teams for March Madness, but the talking heads over at ESPN keep saying it's going to be a "chalk year" in the NCAA Tournament.  What they mean is they expect the top seeded teams to move along without many upsets occurring along the way.  After watching several games the last few weeks, I've come up with the opinion that the major conferences are not that deep this season.  It may be a chalk year but I believe we can expect several mid major conferences to have multiple schools qualify for the Big Dance and this is something I like.
Below I've ranked a baker's dozen schools who could earn an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton may rely upon Doug McDermott too much.
Then again, he's so good why not use him as much as possible?

1. UNLV - When you beat the best team in the country your NCAA Tournament profile looks good.  They'll look for an encore in a bout with Wichita St. this weekend.
2. Gonzaga - Play Illinois this weekend in a game that will say a lot about where the Zags are right now.  I believe they're the best team in the West Coast Conference and new addition BYU will only add to the conference resume.  Other non-conference games include Michigan St., Arizona, Butler, and Xavier.