Preseason Conference Power Rankings

Obviously these rankings are compiled purely on my best guesses on what will happen during the season.  Once the games begin and we have some statistical evidence, my opinions will change. Basically, don’t put too much stock into these. Let the games begin!

1.       Big East - Every year this conference sends at least eight teams to the tournament. I expect that to hold true to form in 2012 with multiple teams vying for a 1 or 2 seed.

2.       Big 12 – No more Nebraska! No more Colorado! Really, these two schools weren’t that bad last year but they’re not tournament contenders either.  A ten team conference that sends five or six schools dancing plus a national title contender in Kansas make this conference look good.

3.       Big 10 – The BIG lost a lot of talent after last season but there are some great freshmen on campus.  Six teams will likely go dancing with the possibility of eight come March.

4.       SEC – Last year the SEC was just mediocre.  That’s partly due to it being young. Now Alabama is ranked, Kentucky seems poised to grab a 1 seed, and a few other schools look to join them in the Big Dance.  The divisions remain imbalanced so we’ll have to take it for it’s worth.

5.       Atlantic Coast – This is going to be a down year for the ACC.  Duke and North Carolina look good as usual but the bottom of this conference could be awful.  That’s never a good thing for your Strength of Schedule (SOS).

6.       Atlantic 10 – This conference isn’t really a power conference but it’s no mid-major either.  Xavier and Temple are two excellent programs who will make some noise this year. The middle of the conference appears average so expecting four bids again may be a stretch.

7.      Pac 12 – New additions Utah and Colorado won’t help this year.  This conference has been plagued by mediocrity of late and I’m not sure it’ll be any different in 2012.  Arizona is overrated in my mind while other contenders Washington, UCLA, and Cal all have big time flaws. The Pac12 is helped by its solid second tier.

8.       Missouri Valley – With the supposed reemergence of Creighton, the MVC appears to gaining steam as the top mid-major.  Also worth watching are Wichita St., Indiana St., and UNI.  This conference is always fun to watch; it’s kind of like the Big 10’s little brother in terms of style.

9.       West Coast – This is Gonzaga’s year!  I doubt that to be true but all the previews I’ve read expect a big improvement from last season. St. Mary’s remains very good, but the team that pushes this conference into the top ten is BYU.  That’s a very nice trio.

10.   Mountain West – New Mexico St. and UNLV appear to be the front-runners this year. No BYU will hurt the RPI but Colorado St. is improving and San Diego St. will still be good. Two bids is a safe bet and three won’t be a surprise.

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Season Predictions

Now that the individual team previews are complete I'd like to do my predictions.  Hopefully these will turn out to be more accurate than my 2011 MLB predictions.  Remember, the season kicks off Friday but Big Ten conference games won't begin until the final week of December.  That's a lot of games before the real season starts. We'll likely learn who's really good and who's really bad but won't learn how the middle of the conference stacks up until they begin playing each other head to head. 
A special thanks goes out to Ken Pomeroy for making advanced statistics available to everyone on the internet. His website made information gathering simple and has been a valuable tool in many of my NCAA basketball posts. 
Take a look after the jump to see my guess at how it'll all shake out:

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Wisconsin

Coach: Bo Ryan – 242-91 (.727)

Lost:  F Jon Leuer, F Keaton Nankivil, G Tim Jarmusz

Returning: G Jordan Taylor (Sr), G Josh Gasser (So), F Mike Bruesewitz (Sr), F Ryan Evans (Jr), C Jared Berggren (RS Jr), G Rob Wilson (Sr), F Duje Dukan (So)

Jordan Taylor can do it all. If not for some guy named
Sullinger Taylor would likely be the #1 candidate for BIG POY.

New faces:  G Traevon Jackson, G George Marshal, C Frank Kaminsky, PF Jarrod Uthoff(149), C Evan Anderson (Redshirt)

Preview: Every year Wisconsin finishes in the top third of the Big Ten. This year they’ll have their work cut out for them as two very important cogs graduated.  Luckily for Badger faithful 1^st Team All Big Ten guard Jordan Taylor returns.  In 2010-11 Taylor only turned the ball over on 8.5% of his possessions while playing point guard. Low rates like that are unheard of. He’ll need to sustain his excellent shooting touch while taking more shots this season if the Badgers are going to remain at the top of the conference.  Also returning is sophomore Josh Gasser who shot 60% on his two’s but only 30% on threes.  He’ll need to improve his accuracy from long range to spread the defense and help relieve the load off Taylor.  Wisconsin returns a plethora of large bodies, none of which do anything that stands out but all of whom can be expected to be excellent rebounders while solid post defenders.  Typically freshmen do not make much of an impact in Madison but the team may be looking for that to change specifically in regards to Jarrod Uthoff.  Uthoff is listed at 6’8” and has a pretty good looking outside shot.  I think the team will hope he can take the role left by Keaton Nankivil as he grows into his body and learns the system. He may be the most athletic player on the team, too.  Regardless of how Wisconsin attempts to fill the void left by their departing seniors, I don’t think it would come as a surprise to expect them to play even slower than last season (58.0 possessions per game) in an attempt to maximize offensive possessions and to try to keep the game close.  Bo Ryan has his work cut out for him.

Shot in the dark at the starting the 5:
PG Jordan Taylor
G Josh Gasser
F Mike Bruesewitz
F Ryan Evans
F Jared Berggren

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Purdue

Coach: Matt Painter - 138-64 (.683)

Lost: F JaJuan Johnson, G E’Twuan Moore

This was the last time Robbie Hummel stepped foot on a court in a
NCAA game.  Purdue fans are ready to put this image behind them
and hope Robbie can lead this young team back to a BIG championship.

Returning:  F Robbie Hummel (RS Sr), PG Lewis Jackson (Sr), G Kelsay Barlow (Jr), F DJ Byrd (Jr), G Ryne Smith (Sr), G Terone Johnson (So), F/C Travis Carroll (So), F/C Sandi Marcius (RS So), G John Hart (RS Jr),

New faces:  F Donnie Hale, PF Jacob Lawson, G Anthony Johnson (Redshirt)

Preview: Each of the last two seasons Boilermaker fans believed not reaching the Final Four would be considered a disappointment. We all know what happened.  Now Hummel is healthy (presumably) but without fellow classmen JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore.  Perhaps the most fundamentally sound player in the conference, Hummel is able to score from anywhere on the floor, is a strong rebounder, excellent passer, and a solid defender.  He will need to transform his game from facilitator to scorer in order for the offense to be successful, no small task for an unselfish player.  Also returning is waterbug point guard Lewis Jackson.  LewJack is grease lighting at getting to the rim but his inconsistent outside shot allows defenses to sag and clog up the middle. His intense on-ball defense and improved free throw shooting make him an asset to have on the floor.  Fellow guard Ryne Smith hit 44% of his threes last year and will need to duplicate that success again to keep defenses honest.  Kelsay Barlow and DJ Byrd are excellent role players capable of guarding the 1-4 positions while scoring just enough.  Without JaJuan Johnson a quartet of players will be looked upon to make up for his lost production. Travis Carroll and Donnie Hale are the more gifted offensive players while Sandi Marcius and Jacob Lawson (if he doesn’t redshirt) can cause nightmares on defense.  There will likely be a lot of mixing and matching throughout the season to maximize matchups.  But the team will be looking most anxiously at guards Terone and Anthony Johnson to be scorers. Terone struggled with his shot last year but showed he can slash to the basket.  Anthony can fill it up but will need to show his defense is ready to play for Painter.  It will likely take several games for these players to gel and find their roles on the court - and with Painter’s track record there’s little reason to expect they won’t – but once they do, with their bullying defense and methodical motion offense Purdue will be a team no one wants to face. 

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG Lewis Jackson

G Ryne Smith

G Terone Johnson

F Robbie Hummel

F Travis Carroll

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Penn St.

Coach: Patrick Chambers- 0-0

Lost: G Talor Battle, F Jeff Brooks, F David Jackson, F Andrew Jones, G Taran Buie (transfer)

Returning:  PG Tim Frazier (Jr), G Jermaine Marshall (RS So), F Billy Oliver (So), G/F Cammeron Woodyard (Sr), F Sasa Borovnjak (RS So), G Nick Colella (Jr)

Tim Frazier will need to continue his great passing
but also add some scoring for the Lions this year.

New faces:  PG Trey Lewis, SF Ross Travis, C Patrick Ackerman, C Peter Alexis, F Jon Graham (Redshirt), G Matt Glover (transfer)

Preview:  You’ve got to feel for the returning players at Penn St.  Gone are four starters who all played more than 75% of available minutes including the best player in program history (Battle).  Also leaving is head coach Ed DeChellis who did a great job in his last two seasons even getting the Nittany Lions to the NCAA Tournament last year.  Now four new starters will need to be found under new head coach Patrick Chambers.  Tim Frazier is the one returning starter and will need to be the floor general.  He is an adept passer who can get to the rim at times but is not a strong outside shooter and often has trouble taking care of the basketball.  He’ll need to improve in these areas to help a team with serious offensive deficiencies.  Freshman Trey Lewis is the most highly regarded recruit and will likely start a lot of games this year. Hopefully he’ll be capable of picking up some of the offensive slack. Sasa Borovnjak seems another likely candidate to take a starting spot.  Borovnjak has a series of post moves and can rebound but it will be interesting to see how he stacks up against other big men in the conference. Finding two other legitimate starters will be difficult.  Of all the remaining players Billy Oliver seems to have the most promise but has had trouble staying healthy.   Patrick Ackmeran could see a lot of playing time but will probably need to add girth to take the pounding he’ll encounter during the season.  There’s not a lot to like here for this season but there is talent that over time can develop and help this program become a middle of the conference team.  That year is not this year, however, so expect some ugly losses and a last place finish.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG Tim Frazier

G Trey Lewis

F Jon Graham

F Billy Oliver

F Sasa Borovnjak

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Ohio St.

As a freshman Jared Sullinger was a man
among boys. It's scary to think what he
can accomplish in his sophomore year.

Coach: Thad Matta – 190-57 (.769)
Lost:  G/F David Lighty, G Jon Diebler, F Dallas Lauderdale
Returning: F Jared Sullinger (So), G William Buford (Sr), G Aaron Craft (So), F DeShaun Thomas (So), G Jordan Sibert (So)
New faces: C  Amir Williams(77), PG Shannon Scott(53), SF Sam Thompson(50), PF Trey McDonald

Preview: To say the Big Ten is Ohio St.’s to lose would be an understatement.  Just like every other contender, the Buckeyes lost several contributing players. The key is what’s returning. Unanimously selected as the pre-season Big Ten POY, Jared Sullinger hopes to improve upon last season’s dominant performance.  Sullinger made 55% of his twos while posting an excellent 65.1 free throw rate (FT attempts divided by FG attempts).  Add to that his incredible rebounding ability and you have the number one candidate for national player of the year.  The only aspect he really needs to improve is his midrange game and the early rumors out of Columbus say he’s lost several pounds with an emphasis on playing away from the basket more. Scary.  I’m sure I wasn’t the only person surprised with the news of William Buford returning this season.  Buford is another excellent shooter (44% on 3’s last year) who plays good defense and can run the point in a pinch.  He’s a great compliment to Sullinger.  Point guard Aaron Craft enters his sophomore year as perhaps the most hated player in the conference. His on-ball defense can be described as a real invasion of personal space, harassing players into silly mistakes.  DeShaun Thomas could have declared for the NBA draft also but probably wanted to come back just to show he can be a significant contributor as he only played in about 30% of total minutes last year.  He’s long and athletic so expect That Matta to be able to use him just fine.  If all of this wasn’t enough reason for optimism, Ohio State also brings in one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. Amir Williams and Shannon Scott could start right away while Sam Thompson and Trey McDonald could be key reserves. Ohio State is sitting pretty and I'm expecting a deep Tournament run.
Shot in the dark at the starting the 5:
PG Aaron Craft
SG William Buford
F DeShaun Thomas
F Jared Sullinger
C Amir Williams

Let the Offseason Begin!

Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals on winning the 2011 World Series.  Now it’s time for the next season to begin: the offseason.  Right away teams will need to decide if they want to keep their impending free agents by offering them arbitration or let them walk.  In the case of the Oakland A’s, they’ve already said goodbye to their entire starting outfield from this season (David DeJesus, Coco Crisp, Josh Willingham).  The deadline for offering arbitration is November 23.  Though teams can contact players and begin negotiations, the signings don’t really begin to start moving around until after this deadline.

I’m sure everyone is aware Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are the top available names this offseason.  Even most are aware that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins have the chance to leave the teams they’ve been with their entire careers. Let me bring to your attention two players who can make a big impact whom you’re not familiar with.

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Northwestern

I know John Shurna looks like he should be starring
for his high school J.V. team but the guy can really ball.
Too bad he plays defense like there's no foul limit. You get five, man. Just five.

Head Coach: Bill Carmody – 160-176 (.476)

Lost: G Michael Thompson, G Mike Capocci

Returning:  F John Shurna (Sr), G Drew Crawford (Jr), C Luka Mirkovic (Sr), G JerShon Cobb (So), G Alex Marcotullio (Jr), F Davide Curletti (Sr)

New faces:   SG Tre Demps, PG David Sobolewski, PF Mike Turner

Preview: Will this be the year the Wildcats finally make the Big Dance? Losing Michael Thompson is really going to hurt but the good news is the rest of their core is returning.  Northwestern’s strengths are good strengths: low turnover rate, excellent 3-point shooting, and a top-notch overall offensive efficiency which stems from their distinct style of play that can be difficult to prepare for. Unfortunately, their flaws are glaring and often debilitating. The team was opportunistic in forcing turnovers but simply could not stop their opponents from scoring. Last season the NCAA average FG% was 47.8 but when playing Northwestern, opponents shot 52.6%. Furthermore, their post players have a tendency to pick up lots of cheap fouls. A deep team can overcome this.  Northwestern, however, is not a deep team.  Fixing one of these two would flaws would seem to be enough to push Northwestern into the upper half of the conference but it doesn’t seem Carmody or this group players are able to improve on the defensive side of the ball. The starting five (Shurna, Crawfrod, Mirkovic, Cobb, and one player to bedetermined) should at least continue last season’s offensive fireworks.  And as long as Northwestern stays efficient on the offensive end they’ll have a chance for upsets.  Alas, it seems the NCAA window has passed this team by without them making an appearance.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

G Drew Crawford

G JerShon Cobb

G Alex Marcotullio

F John Shurna

C Luka Mirkovic