2011 MLB Predictions: NL Central

Unimpressed with his Matrix moves, Chapman fires a fastball at Keanu's head.

It wasn't until the funeral when he learned it's just a movie.

The National League Central has been the home to mediocrity in recent seasons.  In each of the past two seasons a whopping 91 wins has won the division while four teams failed to win at least half their games. I'm not certain that will continue this season but I am certain the bottom two teams in this division will challenge each other for the first pick in next year's amateur draft.

Let's get to it:

Milwaukee Brewers
Best Player: Prince Fielder
Best Pitcher: Zack Greinke 
Biggest off-season move:  Trading for Zack Greinke was the type of "all-in" move fans get excited about. This may be the team's best chance for a while.
Biggest off-season loss: By trading Alcides Escobar, the Brewers are now stuck with Yunieksy Betancourt at SS.
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Prince Fielder be re-signed? It seems unlikely the Brewers will be able to retain their best player after this season so the team needs to win it all.
2. Will Zack Greinke rebound? A goofy injury suffered while playing pick-up basketball will keep Greinke sidelined for a bit, but Greinke should be great once he makes it back.
3. Can the bullpen hold enough leads? This is not a good 'pen but when that's your biggest weakness it's not a bad one to have.
Expectations: This team is assembled to make the playoffs and with Fielder and Braun they should make some noise once they get there.
Opening day lineup:
1. Weeks 2B
2. Gomez CF
3. Braun LF
4. Fielder 1B
5. McGehee 3B
6. Kotsay RF
7. Betancourt SS
8. Nieves C
SP Yovani Gallardo

2010 Houston Astros team preview

2009 Record: 74-88   .463

Run Differential: -127

Houston is a team whose demise I've been predicting for three seasons now.  With an aging roster full of overpaid former stars, a pathetic minor league system, and a meddling owner, the Astros continue to exceed my expectations.  Somehow they just missed making the playoffs in 2008, causing many media outlets and the owner to believe they were on the brink of rebounding as a contender.  Last season should have removed all optimism.  There are two culprits which have caused Houston's fall as the dominant team in the division.  First, is their inexcusable effort in past drafts.  2009 marked the first time they paid over slot recommendation for a pick in years.  In fact, this draft strategy has prevented them from signing several high draft picks.  When your highest drafted player to sign is a fifth rounder as was the case in 2008, your franchise's future as a playoff contender is greatly compromised.  The other culprit is as simple as roster construction. Perhaps owner Drayton McLane feels his hands are tied with an already high payroll but after perusing his free agent signings the last couple of seasons, there's clearly a lack of ingenuity.  When Darin Erstad and Jason Michaels are signed to play significant roles on your club, too much pressure is placed on the starters to not only perform but to play every day.  It also means Dallas Cowboy playoff games are the highlight your offseason.

2010 seems to arrive with the realization that changes need to be made for Houston to become competitive once again.

Season Preview: Houston Astros

2008 Record: 86-75   .534

Run differential: -31 (10^th)

2008 payroll: $88,930,414

Look at the first two lines above.  That’s right, this team had a winning record despite being outscored by 31 runs last season.  In a normal season a team with that run differential would probably have a 75-86 season, not a good record.  In defiance of this statistic, Astro management has failed to realize they don’t have a contending team.  Last season they traded for Randy Wolf at the deadline shore up their rotation in case they had another miraculous surge like 2005 and 2006.  Unfortunately a late fade doomed them.  Although they won 86 games, the Astros finished third in the division and missed the playoffs. 

Gone this season are #3 starter Randy Wolf, starting 3B Ty Wigginton, and utility infielder Mark Loretta.  Houston signed Mr. Glass Mike Hampton to replace Wolf and two players who appeared washed up a couple a years ago in Aaron Boone and Jason Michaels.  Adding insult to injury here is the fact that Houston has the worst minor league system in baseball due to owner Drayton McLane’s draft debacles.  There’s only one prospect that could possibly make any kind of impact in 2009 in Brian Bogusevic and he is not projected to be much more than a borderline starter.  The entire rotation runs the risk of missing time with an injury (Oswalt has back issues, Backe had TJ surgery and missed time w/ a sore forearm last year, Hampton is Mr. Glass, Wandy Rodriguez is hurt all the time).  With Tejada at shortstop and Bourn and Lee in the outfield the defense is one of the worst in the league too. According to Baseball Prospectus, Houston was the oldest team in the league last year so there is little reason to expect improvement.  In fact it’s one Oswalt/Berkman/Lee injury away from mission control turning off radio contact and letting this team just float away into space.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	J.R. Towles	$.402M	Drafted 20th rd 2004
C	Humberto Quintero	$.61 M	Acquired in trade w/ SD 3/28/05
1b	Lance Berkman	$14.5 M	Drafted #16 overall 1997. Signed extension 3/05
2b	Kaz Matsui	$5 M	Signed as FA 12/2/07
3b	Geoff Blum	$1.2 M	Signed as FA 11/20/07
SS	Miguel Tejada	$13 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bal 12/12/07
LF	Carlos Lee	$18.5 M	Signed as FA 11/06
CF	Michael Bourn	$.435 M	Acquired in trade w/ Phi 11/7/07
RF	Hunter Pence	$.45 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2004.
Inf	Aaron Boone	$.75 M	Signed as FA 12/17/08
UT	David Newhan		Non Roster Invitee
Of	Darin Erstad	$1.75 M	Signed as FA 12/27/07. Signed extension 8/08
Of	Jason Michaels	$.75 M	Signed as FA 12/15/08
SP	Roy Oswalt	$14 M	Drafted 23rd rd 1996. Signed extension 8/06
SP	Wandy Rodriguez	$2.6 M	Signed as amateur FA 1/12/99
SP	Mike Hampton	$2 M	Signed as FA 12/3/08
SP	Brandon Backe	$1.55 M	Acquired in trade w/ TB 12/14/03
SP	Brian Moehler	$2.3 M	Signed as FA 1/07. Signed extension 8/08
Cl	Jose Valverde	$8M	Acquired in trade w/ Ari 12/14/07
SU	LaTroy Hawkins	$3.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ NYY 7/30/08. Resigned 11/6/08
RP	Doug Brocail	$2.5 M	Signed as FA 11/07. Resigned 12/08
RP	Geoff Geary	$1.7 M	Acquired in trade w/ Phi 11/7/07
RP	Chris Sampson	$.449M	Drafted 8th rd 1999
RP	Wesley Wright	$.425M	Selected in 2007 Rule V draft
RP	Fernando Nieve	$.414M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 1999

Say hello to: Tyler Lumdsen, Aaron Boone, Jason Michaels, Mike Hampton, Jeff Fulchino

Wave goodbye: Mark Loretta, Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton, Brad Ausmus

Rookies: Brian Bogusevic

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Reggie Abercrombie, Russ Ortiz, Toby Hall

Potential breakout: Wandy Rodriguez

Welcome to Earth: Kaz Matsui, José Valverde,

Likely to rebound: Hunter Pence, Brandon Backe, J.R. Towles

Strengths: Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt are perennial all-stars.

Weaknesses: The rotation is fragile. The lineup is made up of 4 guys that should not be playing everyday.  The outfield defense is poor.  The bullpen is an afterthought. Nineteen of the 25 players on the roster are over 30 and 11 are 33 or older.

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

2B Matsui  B .293/.354/.427  6, 20  .281

RF Pence R  .269/.318/.466  25, 11  .269

1B Berkman  B  .312/.420/.534  29, 18  .336

LF Lee  R .314/.368/.569  28, 4  .316

SS Tejada  R  .283/.314/.415  13, 7  .253

3B Blum  B  .240/.287/.418  14, 1  .245

C  Towles R  .137/.250/.253  4, 0 .183

CF Bourn L  .229/.288/.300  5, 41  .227

Prediction: 6^th in the NL Central