2012 MLB Preview: NL Central

The final division I'm previewing is the National League Central.  This division has seen four different winners in the past four seasons and the last team to repeat as division winner was Chicago who did it in 2007 and 2008.  Three teams haven't finished with a winning record in the same season since 2008 when four teams did it (Cubs, Mil, Hou, Cards).  At first glance this season seems to have three good teams and three not so good teams.  The Cardinals are fresh off a World Series Championship and though they lost the best player in baseball, still have great pitching and a talented offense.  The Brewers lost a star of their own but look to get bounce back years from several players to go along with their own three-headed monster in the rotation.  Cincinnati has the best player in the division and seems poised to make a jump back into the playoffs.  The bottom three teams are a different story. The Pirates flirted with .500 for three and a half months last year before falling apart.  The Cubs are rebuilding and don't expect to contend but are still better than Houston.  Houston had their worst season in franchise history last year and sadly things don't look any better.  With six teams this division is unique; the division won't necessarily be won by who has the best record against the contenders but instead by who has the most success against the Pirates and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs

2011 Record: 71-91

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $88.2 million
Highest Paid Player: Alfonso Soriano - $18 million
Best Player: Starlin Castro led the league with 207 hits last season. I don't think this will be the last time that happens.
Best Pitcher: Even though Dempster's had more success, Matt Garza is the best pitcher on the staff. Last season he struck out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings.  He could break out this year.
Say Hello To: David DeJesus OF, Chris Volstad SP, Anthony Rizzo 1B, Casey Weathers RP, Ian Stewart 3B, Andy Sonnanstine P, Joe Mather OF, Paul Maholm SP
Wave Goodbye: Carlos Zambrano SP (Mia), Carlos Pena 1B (TB), Aramis Ramirez 3B (Mil), John Grabow RP (LA), Ramon Ortiz RP (SF), Tyler Colvin OF (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Theo bring home a championship?  That's the goal, but it's not going to happen this year. The Cubs minor league system is exhausted preventing them from making improvements to the major league club and they're cutting back on payroll so no marquee free agents will be added. Let's talk again in two years.

2. Is Alfonso Soriano just dead weight? When the Cubs signed Soriano in 2007 he was coming off a 46 home run season.  Since then he's hit 30 homers just once and is averaging 26 homers per year as a Cub.  Never a walker, his OBP dipped to new lows last season (.289) meaning he's now a liability in the lineup. The Cubs will have to pay anyone to take him at this point.

3. Can Jeff Samardzija be successful as a starting pitcher?  Scouting reports indicate Jeff should stick to the pen but he wants to start and the Cubs aren't going anywhere this season so why not give him a try?  Velocity isn't Samardzija's issue, it's movement or rather, lack of movement. With a straight fastball and a flat breaking pitch, any time Samardzija's control isn't pinpoint he runs the risk of getting hit hard. 

Expectations: It's going to be a long year on the Northside.  The Cubs are lucky they're in the same division as Houston or they'd likely finish with the worst record in the National League.

With the loss of Aramis Ramirez and the steady decline of
Soriano, Marlon Byrd is now the second best Cub.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. DeJesus RF
2. Barney 2B
3. Castro SS
4. Soriano LF
5. Stewart 3B
6. Baker 1B
7. Byrd CF
8. Soto C

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Dempster
2. Garza
3. Samardzija
4. Volstad
5. Maholm

CL: Marmol

2010 Houston Astros team preview

2009 Record: 74-88   .463

Run Differential: -127

Houston is a team whose demise I've been predicting for three seasons now.  With an aging roster full of overpaid former stars, a pathetic minor league system, and a meddling owner, the Astros continue to exceed my expectations.  Somehow they just missed making the playoffs in 2008, causing many media outlets and the owner to believe they were on the brink of rebounding as a contender.  Last season should have removed all optimism.  There are two culprits which have caused Houston's fall as the dominant team in the division.  First, is their inexcusable effort in past drafts.  2009 marked the first time they paid over slot recommendation for a pick in years.  In fact, this draft strategy has prevented them from signing several high draft picks.  When your highest drafted player to sign is a fifth rounder as was the case in 2008, your franchise's future as a playoff contender is greatly compromised.  The other culprit is as simple as roster construction. Perhaps owner Drayton McLane feels his hands are tied with an already high payroll but after perusing his free agent signings the last couple of seasons, there's clearly a lack of ingenuity.  When Darin Erstad and Jason Michaels are signed to play significant roles on your club, too much pressure is placed on the starters to not only perform but to play every day.  It also means Dallas Cowboy playoff games are the highlight your offseason.

2010 seems to arrive with the realization that changes need to be made for Houston to become competitive once again.