2014 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 Warning: this is a lengthy post.

Last year I wrote a post detailing the Hall of Fame credentials of each candidate on the ballot using a system I devised called Hall of Fame Score (HOFSc).  I thought it worked well but I wasn't finished tweaking.  I messed around with the formula some more during the summer until I came up with something I think works better.  The main difference is now performance relative to the league has more weight than just WAR.

Craig Biggio was the odds on favorite to be elected last season but he only garnered 68% of the votes (75% is necessary) and therefore was not elected.  Now the ballot is gaining several other players who many feel are deserving of enshrinement including Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, and Curt Schilling.  These players plus the carryovers from last season make for one heck of a dilemma for voters.  If multiple players are not elected this time around it's conceivable in the near future there will be up to twenty players who are legitimate candidates.  Until the voters come to a consensus on how to treat the players who dabbled in PEDs (or those who are speculated to have done so) or until the Baseball Writers Association allows more than ten players to be selected on a ballot, we're going to have quite a mess on our hands.

Here's what the ballot looks like this time with their respective HOFSc:

Catchers - Avg/Median HOFSc = 74.00/75.15
Paul LoDuca (24.6): LoDuca had one really nice season with the Dodgers in 2001 where he batted .320/.374/.543.  He never matched those lofty numbers again but managed to stick around for another decade as a decent hitting catcher.

Mike Piazza (92.40): It's a bit of a shame Piazza didn't get in last season because now the ballot is filled with other great candidates. I think he'll get in next year but not this year.  My scoring system puts him fourth among catchers so there's no excuse for shutting him out for too long.

2013 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 


Each year I do a Keltner List of someone whose Hall of Fame credentials need further examination. I haven't done one this year in part because I've been working on something bigger.  This "project" took up considerable time but I think I'm ready to utilize it now. This is good because it's just in time for the Hall of Fame ballot results to be announced.

There are two ways to build a hall of fame case: a long productive career with many good seasons or a strong peak that puts a player among the elite at their position.  Obviously some players did both but many more players failed to do either.  I've created a ranking system called Hall of Fame Score (HOFSc) which is pretty similar to Baseball Prospectus' JAWS.  HOFSc relies upon WAR values whereas BP uses WARP. So let's review each player's candidacy with my new little toy.

Catchers - Avg HOFSc = 45.5
Sandy Alomar, Jr. (15.0): Sandy was an average catcher who hung around for a long time.  He was the 1990 AL Rookie of the Year and played in two World Series with Cleveland.  He was nothing special as a player but seems he had other non-quantifiable virtues that made him a guy teams wanted to have on their team.

Mike Piazza (57.15): Perhaps the greatest offensive catcher of all time, Piazza should be a lock for the Hall.  I have him ranked as the fifth greatest catcher of all time, just behind Yogi Berra.  There are rumors Piazza was a PED user though I've never seen anything concrete in that regard.

2012 Hall of Fame Candidates: Ballot review

Two years ago I did a post about players on the Hall of Fame ballot and it received some positive feedback so I thought I'd do one this year too.

I'm sure we'll hear plenty about Barry Larkin this summer as the lone inductee - and he is a worthy inductee - but this is more of a chance to glance at everyone who didn't make it. Each writer gets to vote for up to ten players or as few as zero. So, if I had a ballot I couldn't vote for the top fifteen guys I feel are Hall worthy.  Below is the shakedown.

Stand up, Barry Larkin, this Bud's for you.

Barry Larkin, 86.4%: Larkin was arguably the best shortstop of the 90's though he's often forgotten when discussing great shortstops of his era.  I'm sure he'll make a nice speech.

Jack Morris, 66.7%: I'm not a fan of his candidacy but it now seems inevitable that he'll be enshrined one day.  His career ERA+ is 105.  Without researching I'm guessing that would be the worst of any Hall of Famer.

Jeff Bagwell, 56.0%: I don't comprehend why he hasn't been inducted. I'm assuming many voters believe he was a steroid user because he was muscular and hit for power.  This is a man who has never been on any lists and was not investigated in the Mitchell Report even though his team trainer was the star witness. He was a good base runner, excellent fielder and his 1994 season is one of the greatest ever by someone not named Bonds or Ruth.

Lee Smith, 50.6%: Lee Smith was a pretty darn good reliever for a long time which is how he was able to amass 478 career saves.  Unfortunately for him relief pitcher is the toughest position to earn enshrinement with only five relievers in the HOF (Wilhelm, Fingers, Eckersley, Gossage, Sutter). Now that his saves record has been broken by two people it's going to be even harder for him to get in.

Tim Raines, 48.7%: This is a significant gain; Raines has more than doubled his vote total since 2009 when he only managed 22%.  Did you know Tim Raines's career OBP is .385?  By comparison, Tony Gwynn's is .388 and last year's inductee Andre Dawson sports a career .325 mark. Just sayin'.

Edgar Martinez, 36.5%: Edgar's holding steady in the mid 30's.  He's a tough case for a lot of voters since he's the first pure DH to warrant serious Hall consideration.  He led the league in batting twice (in the Kingdome!), OBP three times, runs scored twice, doubles twice, runs and RBI once, and finished with a career OPS+ of 147. The man could hit.

Alan Trammell, 36.8%: What's this, a sudden spike in votes for Trammell?  It's his eleventh try on the ballot so it may be too little too late but it's something. Bill James ranked him as the 9th greatest shortstop of all time in his 2000 Baseball Abstract.

Fred McGriff, 23.9%: 493 career home runs ain't what it used to be. I'll have a Keltner List up for McGriff later but as of now his prospects don't look good.

Larry Walker, 22.9%: It's easy to forget how good Walker's statistics are. He won three batting titles, an MVP, seven Gold Gloves, and was a five time All-Star.  That's a pretty good resume.  Still, we need to take his numbers with a grain of salt since he played in Colorado in the pre-Humidor era.  He's a good candidate for a future Keltner List post.

Mark McGwire, 19.5%: 583 career home runs, 12 time all-star, led the league in OBP twice, slugging four times, and OPS+ four times.  Won a gold glove and finished in the top six in MVP voting five times.  Alas, there's a steroid scandal and if weren't for that he'd be in.

Don Mattingly, 17.8%:  Don Mattingly is sort of like Nomar Garciaparra.  He was great in his peak years but otherwise just another player.  Like Nomar, Mattingly had some injuries contribute to his downfall.  If not for that he may have been another Hall of Famer. Always "what if."

Dale Murphy, 14.5%: This is his fourteenth year on the ballot meaning it's 2013 or bust.  He has a pretty solid case to be inducted but when his prime was over so was his career.

Palmeiro: "I have never used steroids." This is all
you need to know about why he's an afterthought.

Rafael Palmeiro, 12.6%: Career longevity led to 3020 hits and 569 home runs. Steroids led to him only getting 72 votes.

Bernie Williams, 9.6%: I figured he would do a little better being a Yankee and all.  See how I feel here.


Everybody mentioned thus far will return on 2013's ballot. The players listed below failed to receive 5% of the vote and won't get another chance for induction.

Juan Gonzalez, 4.0%: I'm pretty surprised he didn't make it over the 5% threshold. He hit 40+ homers five times and had 157 RBI in 1998.  A two-time MVP, even with steroid rumors he deserved better.

Vinny Castilla, 6 votes: Castilla was a good defensive third baseman who had some serious pop. In 1996 and 1997 he finished with the exact same triple crown stats (.304/40/113) which is really weird. He hit 30+ home runs six times.

What happens when you win 2 MVP's, hit 40 home runs
five times but are rumored to have used PEDs?  You get
kicked off the ballot after two years. 

Tim Salmon, 5 votes: Salmon is probably the best player to never make an All-Star game. He finished just one homer shy of 300.

Bill Mueller, 4 votes: Pedro Gomez of ESPN voted for you and not Tim Raines!  A good OBP guy who was underrated until he had his career year with Boston.  After that he became overrated.

Brad Radke, 2 votes: One of the best pitchers in Twins history, Radke had impeccable control and was a 20 game winner once.

Eric Young & Javy Lopez, 1 vote: Lopez probably deserved more while Eric Young should be happy to get one.

Jeremy Burnitz, Ruben Sierra, Phil Nevin, Brian Jordan, Terry Mulholland, and Tony Womack* - 0 votes.  Congrats for being on the ballot.

*Womack somehow made the cut over superior players like Edgardo Alfonzo. 

Major League Steroids

I'll save the longer, more in-depth analysis for Anderson, but with the announcement last night that 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun has been busted for juicing, I had to write something.

I've heard there are studies out there that "prove" that steroid use does not correlate or cause increased performance. There is also the res ipsa loquitur approach of "the thing speaks for itself" that players getting busted are the ones putting up outstanding performances.

Whatever side you fall on, I need to say this...

• Top 6 single-season Home Run Performances: Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, McGwire, Sosa, Sosa. All either proved, admitted, or super-duper highly suspicious users.
• All-Time Home Run Leader: Barry Bonds. Also in the top 10: McGwire, Sosa, A-Rod...see above.
• Oldest pitcher to win a Cy Young: Roger Clemens...same story. Also #3 all-time in strikeouts.

Even if you don't think PEDs can make you swing harder or throw faster, most people would agree that they speed recovery. That's the type of thing that can keep you on top of your game late into your 30s or even your 40s, thus padding the career/all-time stats.

If you take the "suspect" players off the single-season HR records list, only Babe Ruth (twice) and Willie Mays have hit more than 51 HRs after age 31. That's 3 completely honest performances by guys over 31 out of the top 31 overall. That should make you think that maybe power-hitting after 30 is quite a rare, HOF-worthy feat.

2010 Hall of Fame Candidates

I had intended on writing a posting relating to the potential candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame but got interrupted several times and was unable to finish (I'm looking at you Joby).  Now, we've learned Andre Dawson is the sole inductee.  I wrote briefly last season about my feelings on Hawk's eligibility. My opinion has not changed.

Now, in sort of a post-election recap, I'll give my thoughts of each of the players on the ballot.  Be sure to check out baseball-reference to see each player's stats and awards.

Andre Dawson, 77%: I will not argue against his great defense, famous throwing arm, and power. But I want to reiterate something Keith Law said, "Dawson finished 8th all time in outs made but just 96th in times reaching base." The fact that his career OBP is .02 lower than the previous low (held by Lou Brock) should say all you need to know.

Bert Blyleven, 74.2%: Seriously, five votes short?  This poor guy.  Does anyone else think Hall voters have gotten really tough on starting pitchers since Nolan Ryan?  Not one single starting pitcher has been elected by the BBWAA since Ryan in 1999.  I'll argue Blyleven was just as good as Ryan if not better.

Roberto Alomar, 73.7%: This is what he gets for spitting on an ump. He'll be in next year so I won't complain too much.

Jack Morris, 52.3%: Universally known as the "Best pitcher of the 80's".  You know what?  If his best seasons were from 1985-1995 no one would even give a crap. Let it go, people!  Jack, you were a very good pitcher who pitched perhaps the greatest World Series game since Don Larsen.  That is all.

Barry Larkin, 51.6%: I had a discussion about Larkin via email with one of my friends the other day.  He believes Larkin should be a shoo-in.  I was on the fence about his candidacy but now I feel better about it.  Bill James ranked Larkin as the seventh greatest shortstop of all time in his latest Baseball Abstract.  While I won't go that far, I agree his ability to get on base, play very good defense, and his playoff performances equate to those of a Hall of Famer.  I'm mostly concerned with his inability to stay healthy as he only played 150 games two times.  With over 50% of the vote in his first year, it's likely he'll be enshrined in the next two seasons.

Lee Smith, 47.3%: I don't remember what his vote total was from last season but I seem to remember it being about the same.  He was a good relief pitcher who put up astronomical save totals but not Hall worthy.

Edgar Martinez, 36.2%: I think we should begin to evaluate full time designated hitters like we do relief pitchers.  Martinez didn't have a long career but when you put up an OPS+ of over 150 for seven straight seasons you're one heck of a hitter.  And remember, he wasn't moved to DH because he was an atrocious defensive player (though he wasn't good).  He was moved in an effort to keep him healthy (isn't this part of why the position was created?).  36% is a pretty good starting block.  I think he'll eventually get in.

Tim Raines, 30.4%: An 8% jump!  Seriously, Raines is the second best player on this ballot.  I've gone on too much about him already.  I'll just link you to Joe Posnanski.

Mark McGwire, 23.7%: The best player on the ballot.  I'd vote for him every year if I could.  Yes, he used performance enhancers. How do we really know who did and who didn't?  I vote yes because he was the best at a time when we need to assume everyone was using.

Alan Trammell, 22.4%: What's funny is that Trammell was the second best AL shortstop of his time, behind only Ripken.   He should be grouped with Ripken, Ozzie, and Larkin.  Maybe if Larkin gets in people will say, "Hey? What about Alan Trammell?"

Fred McGriff, 21.5%: The Crime Dog actually did pretty well.  I don't think he'll get in but he was a good player for a long time.  Thanks for the memories.

Don Mattingly, 16.1%:  Going backwards.  Mattingly was an excellent defensive player and had a couple of monster offensive seasons.   Would you say he was ever the best player in baseball? Second best? Top five?  I'm not sure I would (this will be a very interesting topic once Rafael Palmeiro becomes eligible).

Dave Parker, 15.2%: I don't see what the big difference between Dawson and Parker is.  Parker was a jerk, yeah, but that shouldn't cost him 60% of his votes.  Wait, what? Maybe people are overrating Dawson? No...couldn't be...

Dale Murphy, 11.7%: I wrote last year how I've changed my mind about Murphy.  Was Murphy ever the best player in baseball? Yes, 1984.  Top five? Four or five times.  That's quite a peak.  Remains a yes on my ballot.  Sadly, I doubt he ever gets in.

Harold Baines, 6.1%: Hard to believe he's still on the ballot.  He could hit but not as well as everyone thinks (finished in the top ten of OPS just three times).

Andres Galarraga, 4.1%: Hit his prime in the greatest offensive park of all time allowing him to put up some pretty amazing numbers.  I'm glad he got some votes.

Robin Ventura, 7 votes: I may have voted for him too as an homage to my favorite third baseman before Chipper.

Ellis Burks, 2 votes: See Galarraga.
Eric Karros, 2 votes: That Rookie of the Year Award really paid off.

Kevin Appier & Pat Hentgen, 1 vote: Good careers. Nice to see they got a recognition vote.
David Segui, 1 vote: WTF?

Todd Zeile, Ray Lankford, Mike Jackson, Shane Reynolds - 0 votes.  Congrats for being on the ballot.