2011 Trade Deadline Primer

The All-Star game has come and gone meaning that now teams must redefine their goals for the season. Some teams have already nearly locked up a playoff spot (Phillies, Rangers) while others know they'll be sitting on their couch come October (Cubs, Astros).  The rest of the teams will spend the next couple of weeks evaluating their position before defining themselves as contenders or pretenders. During July these teams are also known as "buyers" and "sellers."  Many things determine whether a team will look to make a trade such as injury, salary dumps, or even depth. With the July 31st trade deadline rapidly approaching, here is a list of the ten players most likely to be traded.

1. Josh Willingham LF
Since the A's have disappointed and failed to meet the front office's expectations moves will be made. Willingham is a relatively inexpensive player who's only under contract for 2011. The A's will likely use their left field vacancy as an audition for younger players.
Strengths: Above average right-handed power bat with solid on-base skills
Weaknesses: Only an average defensive player with little speed
Cost to acquire: Small. Cash or medium prospect
Likelihood of being moved: 95%
Possible destinations: Philadelphia, Boston, San Francisco, Atlanta, Pittsburgh

2. Mike Adams RP
San Diego isn't fooling anyone this year and will definitely look for deals to help them in the future.  Mike Adams has been one of the top relievers in baseball since his move to San Diego in 2008 and with him due for a nice raise in the off-season expect the Padres to move him to a team searching for right-handed bullpen help.
Strengths: Excellent control, doesn't allow homers, high strike-out rate
Weaknesses: None really, but you can expect his ERA to rise if he is moved to a hitters park and/or a team with a poor defense.
Cost to acquire: Medium-High. One top prospect or two solid ones should do it though the Pads would prefer the former.
Likelihood of being moved: 85%
Possible destinations: Anywhere, but I've got my eye on Texas.

3. Wilson Betemit 3B
The once former top-prospect was on the verge of becoming a baseball vagabond until last season in Kansas City.  He's always had some pop but his defense became acceptable and he hit for a decent average for the first time since his Atlanta days.
Strengths: Switch hitter, positional versatility
Weaknesses: Often struggles vs. left-handed pitchers and can be overpowered by hard fastballs.
Cost to acquire: Low. The Royals recently called up 3B prospect Mike Moustakas so Betemit is back to being a bench player.
Likelihood of being moved: 80%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee

4. Carlos Beltran OF
Carlos Beltran is likely the best player that's readily available.  He missed large chunks of 2009 and 2010 due to knee injuries but he's back with a vengeance this season as he currently leads the National League in doubles.
Strengths: Good hitter from both sides of the plate, good power, excellent baserunner even though he no longer steals many bases, having a good season defensively as well
Weaknesses: No longer can play center field, potential knee issues
Cost to acquire: High. The Mets will want a grade A prospect and likely some salary relief from the $18.5 million Beltran is earning this season. Good players don't come cheap.
Likelihood of being moved: 70%
Possible destinations: Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland

5. Jamey Carroll INF
The Dodgers are out of it and-- thanks to their owner filing for bankruptcy-- in desperate need of salary relief.
Strengths: Solid utility player who can contribute offensively
Weaknesses: Stretched at shortstop, 12 career HR in over 1000 career games
Cost to acquire: Low. Carroll has appeal to several teams so his value will probably be driven up in the bidding process but salary relief is likely LA's number one demand
Likelihood of being moved: 67%
Possible destinations: Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago Sox, Braves, St. Louis

6. Tyler Clippard RP
Washington has shown real signs of growth this season and is realistically only a couple of seasons away from putting a playoff-caliber team on the field. Trading Clippard will help the team move in this direction.
Strengths: Stretched as a starter, Clippard has proven to be an excellent long man, situational man, or even late inning reliever.
Weaknesses: Can be prone to give up the gopher ball
Cost to acquire: Medium. While the Nats are actively shopping him, they'll likely be overwhelmed by an offer from some team. He's making the league minimum but is due for his first raise in arbitration this offseason.
Likelihood of being moved: 60%
Possible destinations: Atlanta, St. Louis, Yankees, Philadelphia, Arizona, Tampa

7. BJ Upton CF
While Tampa would be considered a contender by many, they're not against reshaping their team to improve themselves for next year as well. Upton's not having his best season and it might be a time for a change of scenery; the Rays may be ready to see him go.

Strengths: Elite speed, very good defensive player, at times has some serious pop
Weaknesses: Attitude and effort are questionable at times, susceptible to prolonged slumps
Cost to acquire: Medium. Tampa already has his replacement ready in AAA but they'll need something worthwhile to move him.
Likelihood of being moved: 50%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati

8. Jeremy Guthrie SP
Guthrie has been Baltimore's #1 starter the last few seasons more by default than by actual performance.  Still, he's durable and can eat up a lot of innings. Teams could do a lot worse.
Strengths: Excellent control, durable
Weaknesses: Gives up a lot of homers, struggles to put hitters away
Cost to acquire: Medium. A major league ready pitcher is a must though he doesn't have to be a future stud.
Likelihood of being moved: 45%
Possible destinations: Detroit, Arizona, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, St. Louis

9. Ivan Rodriguez C
Rodriguez is no longer the catcher he once was but he can still be an asset to a contender. Washington has been utilizing him in a back-up role all season to give their younger players more experience.
Strengths: Cannon arm, defensive master, experience and leadership
Weaknesses: His offensive skills have eroded greatly
Cost to acquire: Low. Lots of cash or a C+ prospect and cash might do it.
Likelihood of being moved: 40%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Yankees, Boston, Detroit

10. Ty Wigginton UT

Colorado has been ravaged by the injury bug this season to the extent that it's likely ended their playoff aspirations already.  Wigginton has been hitting well but really doesn't have a place to play everyday on this team. Look for him to be moved.
Strengths: Defensive versatility, good power, performs well as a bench player
Weaknesses: Has not had a good season batting average wise and is a crappy second baseman
Cost to acquire: Low. Any B prospect should be enough to pry Wigginton away.
Likelihood of being moved: 40%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit

Surprise Deal: Michael Bourn CF
I haven't heard Bourn's name mentioned in any rumors but this is a move that makes too much sense to me.  Houston is awful, awful, awful, and there are several teams out there who could use a good center fielder.
Strengths: Maybe the best defensive center fielder in baseball, excellent baserunner/stealer
Weaknesses: No power, doesn't hit for high average or have a high walk rate
Cost to acquire: Medium-High. He's not really on the market but a solid offer ought to get him. Two B prospects and a young major leaguer should be more than enough.
Likelihood of being moved: 33%
Possible destinations: Atlanta, Tampa, Boston, San Francisco, Detroit, Cleveland

Catching up with the CF prospects of 2009

Two years ago I wrote a post about the top center field prospects in baseball.  In that post I gave a basic rundown of the skills each player was expected to bring to the table as well as my best guess as to win they'd make their MLB debut.  In September I revisited the issue with an overview of how each player fared during the 2009 season but I've failed to look at these guys as a collective group since.  I've been in a bit of a rut so why not bring it up now?

Below I've ranked the eight players discussed in the two previous installments by their performance thus far (along with their career totals).

Andrew McCutchen, Pit: 326 G .287/.370/.465 75 2B, 16 3B, 38 HR, 67/87 SB, 10.9 WAR
McCutchen continues to exceed my expectations. After finishing a distant fourth in ROY voting in 2009, he duplicated his success in 2010 showing everyone it was no fluke.  This year he's elevated his game to a whole new level. He's already mashed 10 HR and stolen 12 bases while improving his defense to the point where not winning a gold glove would be a gross oversight by the voters. As of today he ranks third in the National League in WAR meaning he's achieved superstar status. Give the man a raise!

Drew Stubbs, Cin: 261 G .261/.333/.435 37 2B, 8 3B, 39 HR, 60/72 SB, 9.4 WAR
Once allowed to play everyday, Stubbs immediately brought power and speed to the lineup. Last season he hit 22 home runs and stole 30 bases. Not bad for a guy playing in his first full season. And currently, he leads the NL in runs scored although that is more a result of him being installed as the leadoff hitter than him being a great on-base man.  I noted earlier he plays excellent defense but he's actually better than that. While defensive stats are often questionable for single season data, Stubbs earned 5.2 defensive WAR last year alone! Whether that's perfectly accurate or not, it puts him in the category of Defensive God.

Colby Rasmus, StL: 355 G .264/.340/.448 62 2B, 11 3B, 44 HR, 20/30 SB, 7.1 WAR
I have not changed my stance on him one bit. This guy is going to be great. Luckily for Cardinal fans he's not far away from achieving it.  In 2008 he hit 16 home runs but only had a .307 on-base percentage to go along with his .407 slugging percentage. He did play a very good center field and put up a total WAR of 2.8.  Last season he was even better and hit 23 home runs while upping his percentages to .276/.361/.498. His defense did slip but he still put up 4.3 WAR - an excellent number for a center fielder. The only nitpick right now is he still struggles versus left-handed pitching.

Austin Jackson, Det: 218 G .282/.338/.393 47 2B, 15 3B, 7 HR, 37/45 SB, 4.7 WAR
Jackson narrowly lost out on winning the A.L. Rookie of the Year last season. A hot start catapulted his candidacy early but he couldn't avoid a summer fade. Jackson hit 34 doubles and 10 triples last year while stealing 27 bases. Speed has never been an issue but contact is as he also led the league with 170 whiffs last year. An average defensive player, as long as Jackson maintains his speed he'll be valuable. If he can up his walk to strikeout ratio (47:170) he'll be even more than that.

Cameron Maybin, SD: 220 G .251/.317.390 32 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR, 26/33 SB, 3.1 WAR
It seems like forever ago when Maybin made his debut with the Tigers, right? That was 2007 and he's been traded twice since then. Now in San Diego and still only 24, Maybin appears to have landed with an organization whose willing to let him learn through his struggles instead of sending him back down to AAA. He's never been expected to hit for average but he'll need to up his walk rate for teams to take him seriously.  There is power there but that's just one of the many aspects of his game that remains inconsistent. I can't say what to expect out of him anymore but I think at worst he can stick around in the league as a fourth outfielder.

Dexter Fowler, Col: 337 G .255/.349/.391 62 2B, 29 3B, 10 HR, 42/66 SB, 2.1 WAR
Fowler is a guy I was convinced would turn out to be an impact player. With his gap power and excellent speed, I felt like he was the perfect fit for Coors Field. Though he did lead the league with 14 triples in 2010, Fowler has really struggled since becoming a starter in 2009. He's still not a great base stealer and he's prone to stretches where he makes no contact (100+ strikeouts in '08 & '09 and 66 already this year).  Fowler desperately needs to find consistency or the Rockies may be forced to look elsewhere for a player who will provide more help to their playoff aspirations.

Michael Saunders, Sea: 191 G .203/.270/.318 17 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 14/20 SB, -0.3 WAR
No offense to Mr. Saunders but this is the one guy I wasn't sold on as a prospect.  Too many swings and misses with a below average walk rate meant he'd have to play good defense to stick. Unfortunately for Saunders, the Mariners have an elite defensive center fielder in Franklin Gutierrez, so Saunders was moved to left.  Newsflash sports fans: Michael Saunders doesn't hit well enough to be an everyday left fielder. Compounding matters is the fact that his GM is feeling a lot of pressure from the owner to put a competitive team on the field which likely reduces the amount of time Saunders has to prove himself. I'm sure he'll have a season or two where he manages to hit .250 with 20-25 home runs but that could be several years down the road and not in Seattle.

Jordan Schafer, Atl: 68 G .209/.312/.297 10 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9/12 SB, -0.7 WAR
When Schafer was sent back to the minors in 2009 it was revealed he had a significant wrist injury that he tried to play through.  That injury not only cost him experience, it appears to have altered the type of player he will become. He no longer smokes line drives to the gaps or rips balls down the lines for extra bases. Instead he's relying more on speed; improving his bunting technique and excelling as a runner. Not that it's bad, but his defense hasn't been quite at the level that was expected either. A player with this skill set can play in the majors it just likely won't be with Atlanta. Still, with an injuries to the Braves outfielders an opportunity has presented itself for him to showcase his worth and prove his doubters wrong.

Ranking the AL Shortstops

It's no secret over the past few seasons the best shortstops have been in the National League. Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Troy Tulowitzki are the names people tend to throw out first when talking about the best shortstops in baseball.  Long gone are the glory days of Jeter (age 37), ARod (35 and now a third baseman), Miguel Tejada (37 and mostly plays 3B), and Nomar Garciaparra (retired). Who then are the best shortstops in the American League?  After evaluating all fourteen A.L. starting shortstops, I've managed to rank them in different groups Bill Simmons style.

Observations from the Trop

Last Saturday I made my way down to Tampa to meet up with my family for the long weekend. While there we all went to the Rays game versus the Indians.  The game failed to reach the level of excitement I anticipated beforehand (though Avril Lavigne did her best to draw attention to the post-game activities). I talked up James Shields all morning about how he was the AL Cy Young frontrunner only to see him give up two runs in the first where he was actually hit pretty hard. The Indians piled on late in the game and held on for a 7-3 win. Below are some notes I took during the game:

Pre Game

• Avril Lavigne throws out the first pitch. Not only is she tiny (Yahoo! says she's between 5'2" and 5'3" probably 100lbs soaking wet) but she can't throw. Standing a good ten feet in front of the mound she one hops the throw to the catcher at home plate.
• Carlos Carrasco is warming up in the bullpen for Cleveland. Looks like he's throwing hard.
• Evan Longoria is batting leadoff for the first time in his career. 
• I'm excited Grady Sizemore is back in the lineup (though he's just DHing) after missing time with a knee injury. He's an exciting player when healthy

Top of the 1st

• Shields gives up a hard hit single and a triple to the first two batters but does something I've never seen live before when he picks Asdrubal Cabrera off third base. The play was obviously planned as Longoria sprinted from his spot deep on the dirt to the bag to get Cabrera.
• The next two batters single but Shields gets out of the inning when the Indians fly out to right on a hit and run play resulting in a double play.

Bottom of the 1st

• Evan Longoria singles in his first career at-bat as a leadoff hitter. Nice.

Top 2

• Casey Kotchman shows how he's managed to stick around in the bigs with a nice leaping play at first to rob Sizemore of a double
• Matt LaPorta absolutely crushes one to right for an opposite field-line drive homer. Shields strikes out two but has already given up three runs and five hits.

Top 3

• Shields appears to be making adjustments and now seems unwilling to give in. Makes it out of the inning without allowing a run but still walked two. 

Bottom 3

• Longoria homers to dead center. I guess he likes this leadoff spot (even though he didn't lead off this inning).
• Johnny Damon doubles into the right field corner. The guy can still pull the ball down the line. Three years ago he'd be standing on third.
• Choo does a so-so job digging it out of the corner but shows off his strong arm by throwing a laser to the second baseman.

Bottom 4

• Matt Joyce gets a hit to raise his AL leading average to .358. 
• Kotchman - who also is miraculously hitting over .330 - hits a bleeder through the infield which advances Joyce to third.
• Sean Rodriguez beatifully bunts down the first base line on a suicide squeeze. The official scorer rules it a hit which I think is a mistake. If Carrasco had thrown to first instead of home he would have gotten an out. Instead it's first and second for Tampa though they won't score again this inning.

Top 5

• Shields has officially settled in. Whatever plagued him the first two innings has been remedied.  He now has eight strikeouts through five innings after striking out 2 in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th.

Top 6

• Creighton takes over scorekeeping duties as I pick at a poorly prepared Papa John's pizza. I think this will be the last pizza I grab at the Trop. It's hot dogs or Outback from here on out.
• After a few unsuccessful attempts, a wave breaks out in the lower section. I hate the wave. I hate it even more than this pizza.
• Creighton comments that Carlos Santana has a cool name.

Bottom 6

• BJ Upton is completely lost. He's struck out twice and now grounded out. When he's on he's a superstar but when he's not he looks very, very bad.
• Carlos Carrasco has been very effective this evening. The Rays go down 1-2-3 in the sixth without hitting the ball out of the infield.
• Asdrubal Cabrera is a slick shortstop. He gets to almost everything and looks smooth. I can see why Cleveland was so high on him a couple of years ago.
• Carrasco final line is 6 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, no walks, and four strikeouts.

Top 7

• Shields gets the Indians to go down 1-2-3 in the seventh. You really have to give it to him for keeping his team in the game after having a rough start.
• Shields' final line is 7-7-3-3-8. A strong performance.

Bottom 7

• With speedy Sam Fuld on second, Johnny Damon steps up to try and get a big hit. After working a 2-2 count with several foul balls, Tony Sipp throws one up and in which pushes Damon off the plate. Unfortunately in the process of moving out of the way Damon's bat crossed home plate for a swinging strike. Damon argues and a chorus of boos erupt from the Tampa fans. Good to see they're still awake.

Top 8

• JP Howell makes another appearance. Howell missed all of 2010 and early parts of 2011 due to arm problems and still doesn't seem to be right. The Indians must think it's batting practice because they're getting some good swings.
• After a Michael Brantley single, Asdrubal Cabrera hits a hard sinking liner to second. Zobrist doesn't get in front of it and boots it badly for an error. Wait, now it's a hit. Bad call.
• Choo gets hit by a pitch to load the bases causing the Rays to go into an interesting defensive alignment with Travis Buck up. See the image below:
• 
• Howell gets lifted after Buck singles and Kyle Farnsworth comes in to finish the inning. The damage has been done though with the Indians plating four more runners.
• Speaking of Farnsworth, the former Cub is having a career year with that 1.50 ERA he's sporting.

Bottom 8

• Rays go weakly in the eighth as Tony Sipp mows them down in order.

Bottom 9

• Casey Kotchman of all people leads off the inning with a double off Rafael Perez. Perez has never really been the same after Cleveland abused him during their 2007 post-season run.
• Sean Rodriguez singles to put runners on the corners.
• After Sam Fuld and John Jaso each hit infield pop-ups, Longoria walks to load the bases second. 
• Chris Perez is called in because it's a "save situation". What a bunch of baloney. Yes, the bases are loaded but there's two outs and the batter is not the tying run. Leave him out there to finish the game!
• Johnny Damon works a tough at bat and hits a hot shot down the line that LaPorta gets in front of but can't handle. Kotchman scores and Damon is safe on the error.
• Evan Longoria evidently thought Rodriguez was going to score too because he sprints down to third base only to find...Rodriguez. Rodriguez, now in a run-down between third and home, does a great job of making the Cleveland infielders work even diving under a tag at one point to keep the pickle alive. Alas, he is tagged out and the game ends. Longoria, who had the offensive heroics to keep the team in the game early, makes the bonehead baserunning move late to end the game.

Final Thoughts

The Rays offense just never got going today while the Indians took advantage of a shaky James Shields early on. Though the Rays had the bases loaded in the 9th it's unlikely they would have won even without the baserunning blunder since they were already down to their last out. I love going to games and it's always a plus when you go with people you like. Thanks Mom!

Jorge Posada and Catchers of his Era

What if I told you it was Posada and not Jeter that was the engine that drove the Yankee dynasty?

Last week when Jorge Posada went to Joe Girardi and asked out of the lineup, ESPN grabbed the story and ran with it. Regardless of how the organization felt about the situation, it's clear Posada is struggling. Going into that game was only hitting .165 and had lost his catching duties.  What do you do with a DH who can't hit?  The Yankees are trying to work their way around this situation while remaining loyal to one of the key cogs in their latest dynasty.  Who knows if Posada will start hitting but I'm guessing the Yankees have a deadline in mind in which they expect results or he'll be asked to retire/be released.
Anyway, all this hoopla got me thinking about what a great player Posada has been. Is he a hall of famer? My gut says no but with all those postseason appearances I wouldn't rule it out. Where does he rank in terms of catchers all time? That's a loaded question especially since his career hasn't ended (officially) yet. How does he rank among catchers of his era? That's a question that I'm not afraid to tackle. Using Baseball-reference's readily available data, I went and ranked catchers of the past thirty years in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR - quite possibly the best statistic there is in determining how valuable a player is in any given season).
Here's the top 10 in career WAR when only considering games from 1980-2010:

Examining the leaderboard

With just over 25% of the season complete I thought it would be a fun exercise to look at some statistical leaders in baseball. I don't think this needs much more explanation so without further ado:

American League                          National League                   

Batting Average		Batting Average
1. Jose Bautista Tor        .364		1. Matt Holliday StL        .356
2. Matt Joyce TB             .354		2. Lance Berkman StL     .349
3. Michael Young Tex     .331		3. Placido Polanco Phi    .333
4. Adrian Gonzalez Bos  .326		4. Joey Votto Cin             .331
5. Howie Kendrick LA     .322		5. Matt Kemp LA             .324
Runs Scored		Runs Scored
1. Jose Bautista Tor           37		1.Drew Stubbs Cin           33
2. Miguel Cabrera Det      33		2. Joey Votto Cin              32
3. Ben Zobrist TB             31		t. Colby Rasmus StL         32
4. Curtis Granderson NY  30		t. Ryan Braun Mil             32
t. Howie Kendrick LA      30		5. Matt Holliday StL         31
		t. Lance Berkman StL       31
Home Runs		Home Runs
1. Jose Bautista Tor           18		1. Ryan Braun                    12
2. Curtis Granderson NY  14		2. Alfonso Soriano Chi     11
3. Mark Teixeira NY         11		t. Troy Tulowitzki Col       11
4. Paul Konerko Chi         10		4. Paul Konerko Chi         11
5. Adrian Beltre Tex         10		5. Four tied at                  10
RBI		RBI
1. Adrian Gonzalez Bos   41		1. Prince Fielder Mil         35
2. Adrian Beltre Tex         37		t. Ryan Braun Mil              35
3. Paul Konerko Chi         35		t. Ryan Howard Phi          35
4. Curtis Granderson NY 34		t. Lance Berkman StL       35
5. Michael Young Tex      31		5. Hunter Pence Hou       33
t. Jose Bautista Tor           31
Stolen Bases		Stolen Bases
1. Jacoby Ellsbury Bos    14		1. Jose Reyes NY                16
t. Elvis Andrus Tex          14		t. Michael Bourn Hou       16
3. Coco Crisp Oak           13		3. Drew Stubbs Cin           14
4. Rajai Davis Tor           12		t. Ian Desmond Was         14
t. Sam Fuld TB                12		5. Matt Kemp LA               12
		t. Jason Bourgeois Hou    12

Wins			Wins
1. Jered Weaver LA	6		1. Kyle McClellan StL	6
t. Josh Tomlin Cle	6		t. Roy Halladay Phi	6
t. Jon Lester Bos	6		16 tied at	5
t. Max Scherzer Det	6
t. Trevor Cahill Oak	6
ERA			ERA
1. Josh Beckett Bos	1.73		1. Josh Johnson Fla	1.64
2. Trevor Cahill Oak	1.79		2. Jaime Garcia StL	1.64
3. Dan Haren LA	1.84		3. Jair Jurrjens Atl	1.80
4. Alexi Ogando Tex	2.13		4. Kyle Lohse StL	2.17
5. Zach Britton Bal	2.14		5. Roy Halladay Phi	2.21
Strikeouts			Strikeouts
1. Justin Verlander Det	71		1. Roy Halladay Phi	80
2. Dan Haren LA	66		2. Clayton Kershaw LA	70
3. Jered Weaver LA	65		3. Tim Lincecum SF	69
4. Felix Hernandez Sea	64		4. Cliff Lee Phi	68
5. Jon Lester Bos	63		t. Matt Garza Chi	68
Innings Pitched			Innings Pitched
1. Dan Haren LA	73 1/3		1. Roy Halladay Phi	77 2/3
2. Justin Verlander Det	73		2. Ian Kennedy Ari	66 2/3
3. Felix Hernandez Sea	69 2/3		3. Kyle Lohse StL	66 1/3
t. Jered Weaver LA	69 2/3		4. Tim Hudson Atl	66
5. C.J. Wilson Tex	68 1/3		5. Livan Hernandez Was	64 1/3
Saves			Saves
1. Mariano Rivera NY	13		1. Leo Nunez Fla	16
2. Chris Perez Cle	12		2. Francisco Rodriguez NY	15
3. Jose Valverde Det	10		3. Huston Street Col	14
t. Brandon League Sea	10		4. Brian Wilson SF	13
5. Kyle Farnsworth TB	9		5. Joel Hanrahan Pit	12
t. Brian Fuentes Oak	9

Sammy Wanjiru

Sammy Wanjiru is a name most people probably don't recognize.  Being a long distance runner rarely is accompanied with fame in this part of the world afterall.  Unfortunately, he won't get a chance to add to his fame or records due to his strange and unexpected death this week. Think Steve Prefontaine only with the ability to break down time barriers that were believed impossible as recently as five years ago.  

Like most runners Wanjiru began running track as a teenager. He was very successful in the 10,000m and his coaches wisely realized he had potential to dominate longer distances. At the age of 18, two weeks after destroying the junior 10,000m record by 23 seconds, Wanjiru set the World Record in the half-marathon in Rotterdam (a fast course). His official time is listed at 59:16 which was one second faster than Paul Tergat's previous record. This got everyone's attention. I remember talking to my friends about how impressive a record it was--and by such a young person! If a bunch of kids in the midwest noticed then imagine the publicity in Europe and Kenya.  Sammy Wanjiru was officially on the map.

Evidently Wanjiru decided he could become a great marathoner also.  He ran London in 2008, a good warmup for the upcoming Olympics, and finished in second place with a great time of 2:05:24.  He more than held his own in a decent field that included Ryan Hall, Richard Kiplagat, and Abderrahim Goumri.  

Later that year, he would accomplish a feat in which he may be most remembered for. In a grueling race with temperatures at an uncomfortably high level, Wanjiru blazed through the marathon at a pace that had never been accomplished at an Olympics.  Finishing in first place by over 30 seconds, Wanjiru not only took home Kenya's first ever marathon gold medal but he also shattered the Olympic record by over three minutes. Still, Wanjiru wasn't done.  

In 2009 Wanjiru went back to London and this time ran a 2:05:10, winning the race and setting a new course record. This affirmed his status as one of the top three marathoners in the world.  In the fall Wanjiru went to Chicago and with me in attendance (and John Krumsee only 32 minutes behind) ran the fastest marathon ever on American soil.  According to Wikipedia, that win moved him to number one in the World Marathon Rankings and with it a nice income of $500,000.  Wanjiru was able to defend his title in Chicago this past year giving him three wins in the World Marathon Majors plus an Olympic gold medal in just over two years.

In my opinion, Wanjiru was on his way to becoming the greatest long-distance runner of all-time. Though he does not hold any world records in the marathon (nor any top 10 times for that matter), he accomplished more things by the time he turned 24 than most elite runners do in their entire careers. Considering elite marathoners tend to peak in their late twenties and early thirties it seems there was a good chance for improvement.  He stated he felt he was ready to challenge and break the impossible "two-hour barrier" and I believe if anyone on this Earth could do it it would be Sammy Wanjiru.

Instead the world is left stunned by his death while wondering what could have been. We'll never know but it's fun to imagine.

Accomplishments

• World Junior Record for 10,000m (26:41.75)
• Three time World Record Holder in half-marathon (58:33)
• 2009 & 2010 Chicago Marathon winner
• 2009 London Marathon winner
• 2008 Olympic Record for Marathon
• 2009 Ranked #1 in World Marathon Rankings 
• Personal record in marathon: 2:05:10 (London 2009)

Prospect 4 Pack

Unlike the two previous seasons, I did not do a prospect watch this year.  Part of it was because I didn't see a position that is overflowing with talent like center field and catcher.  The other reason is because I thought I could just do periodic updates to see how the top prospects are faring during the season. Performance is 2/3 of how guys get their ratings.  The other third comes from potential to improve.  Every player has "tools", it's just a matter of what they can do with those tools to become successful. It's important to keep that in mind when reviewing how each player is doing throughout the year. To start I'll do a run down on the top four prospects in my mind entering this season.

• Julio Teheran SP Atlanta  

Although only 20 Teheran started the year in AAA and so far has started six games with dominating results. He's 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He's struck out more men than hits allowed, too.  His only real flaw is his inconsistent command of his curve ball and change-up which were prevalent in his major league debut against the Phillies.  The Braves rotation is already excellent so Teheran may be called up to be a reliever down the stretch as the Braves try to make it back to the playoffs.

2011 NFL Draft Thoughts: Final Impressions

Well, last weekend was fun.  This post is coming a little late I know, but it's also given me time to go over each team's draft and think about how each pick can potentially impact current rosters and direction of each team.  It's too early to give each team a grade but it's not too early to see who tried to help themselves and who didn't.  It's no surprise that the teams who performed the best on draft day are winning franchises. The Lions may not fit the mold but once Matt Millen was fired they've had some good drafts and begun turning things around.

 Don't cry, Mark. The Saints trading up to select you is my favorite move of the NFL Draft.

Three Teams Whose Drafts I Like

1. Indianapolis Colts
1. Anthony Castonzo OT
2. Ben Ijalana OT
3. Drake Nevis DT
4. Delone Carter RB
5. Chris Rucker DB
• A lot was made of how horribly Peyton Manning played last season.  Not as many people talked about how awful the Colts offensive line was. No, they didn't give up a lot of sacks - Manning is masterful at getting rid of the ball - but running game was atrocious. The line couldn't block for the run game or the pass game and as a result Manning was rarely comfortable. In my opinion Castonzo was the best tackle in the draft and will protect the blind side immediately. Ijalana is another prospect who will anchor this line from day 1. He might not start at RT but he should end up there.  Drake Nevis is a great fit in the Colts 4-3 scheme and will help against the run. Delone Carter will likely be the #3 running back to start but could end up being the main guy if Donald Brown can't stay healthy.  He's already better than Mike Hart. Chris Rucker is a special teamer and depth at a position where the Colts always have injury issues. I love this draft and the Colts should be better now and in five years from now.
2. New Orleans Saints
1. Cameron Jordan DE
2. Mark Ingram RB
3. Martez Wilson ILB
4. Johnny Patrick CB
5. Greg Romeus DE
6. Nathan Bussey OLB
•  Despite having Drew Brees the Saints were never completely in sync last year. The defense lacked the big plays that they lived on in 2009 and the offense suffered injuries at the running back position.  With the first pick New Orleans took best player available in DE C. Jordan who just so happened to fit in with their needs list. He should start immediately.  I've already talked about what a great move it was to get RB Ingram.  Martez Wilson is a big hitter who will slide in next to Scott Shanle.  Johnny Patrick is a CB who could turn into a very good nickel back, Greg Romeus is an excellent run defender and will stick with the team, Nathan Bussey adds depth and special teams ability. The Saints are instant contenders again.
3. Detroit Lions
1. Nick Fairley DT
2. Titus Young WR
3. Mikel Leshoure RB
4. Douglas Hogue OLB
5. Johnny Culbreath OT
• The Lions did not address the offensive line or secondary which most fans and draft pundits agreed were their two biggest needs.  They did, however, add play makers to three key positions which make them instant playoff contenders. I think only Cam Newton is a higher bust risk than Nick Fairley but if Fairley works out watch out! Fairley next to Suh is downright scary. Two DTs that are excellent pass rushers will increase the pressure off the edge and in theory improve the DBs.  Titus Young provides a quick underneath target so Megatron won't be double teamed on every play.  Mikel Leshoure is likely going to steal a lot of carries from Javhid Best and is more durable.  Douglas Hogue was a productive player in college but I'm not sure if he'll have much of a career in the NFL. Johnny Culbreath is a nice developmental pick who could stick at tackle in a couple of years. Expect the Lions to go after a CB and OT if there's free agency.

Honorable Mention

• Baltimore Ravens - Got a good CB (Jimmy Smith), a speedy WR (Torrey Smith), a potential possession receiver (Tandon Doss), and a OT prospect (Jah Reid). Filled their needs without having to reach or trade. The playoff streak will continue.
• Cincinnati Bengals - Took the best player in the draft (AJ Green), a QB they're sold on being their franchise QB (Andy Dalton), an underrated pass rusher (Dontay Moch),  and perhaps the best interior lineman in the draft (Clint Boling) all by the fourth round. An excellent draft for a rebuilding team.
• New York Giants - Got a the second best CB (Prince Amukamara), another pass rushing DT (Marvin Austin), a big play WR (Jerrel Jernigan), a big OT (James Brewer), and a tackle machine (Greg Jones) at linebacker. They had perhaps the best value pick of any team in every round of this draft.

2011 MLB Predictions: Awards

Now that I've completed my divisional previews I suppose it's time to get down to the nitty gritty.  Believe me when I say I'm glad I finished the previews.  By the time I'd gotten to the National League Central I was pooped.  Then I was rewarded by doing write-ups for Pittsburgh and Houston.  At least the Pirates have a brightening future.
Anyway, this post will be dedicated to my award winners and due to reader request I will also put down my predicted records for each team.  First, the records:

AL East				NL East
Boston	98	64		Philadelphia	97	65
New York	90	72		Atlanta	92	70
Tampa	84	78		New York	81	81
Toronto	78	84		Washington	73	89
Baltimore	73	89		Florida	73	89
AL Central				NL Central
Chicago	87	75		Milwaukee	91	71
Detroit	83	79		Cincinnati	88	74
Minnesota	80	82		St. Louis	83	79
Cleveland	79	83		Chicago	77	85
Kansas City	70	92		Pittsburgh	68	94
				Houston	61	101
AL West				NL West
Texas	94	68		Colorado	93	69
Oakland	90	72		San Fran	88	74
Los Angeles	83	79		Los Angeles	80	82
Seattle	58	104		San Diego	70	92
				Arizona	68	94

Putting that table in was a huge pain in the butt.  As you can see no surprises in the division winners unless you think Milwaukee is a big underdog.  My biggest surprise is picking Oakland to win the AL Wild Card. If this holds true to form this is how I think the playoffs will go:
Boston over Oakland                   Milwaukee over Philadelphia
Texas over Chicago                     Colorado over Atlanta
Boston over Texas                        Milwaukee over Colorado

Boston over Milwaukee (hey, I can dream, right?)

Now your Award winners:
AL MVP                                     NL MVP
1. Adrian Gonzalez                     1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Robinson Cano                       2. Albert Pujols
3. Miguel Cabrera                       3. David Wright

AL Cy Young                              NL Cy Young
1. Brett Anderson                        1. Tim Lincecum
2. CC Sabathia                            2. Josh Johnson
3. Neftali Feliz                            3. Tommy Hanson

AL Rookie                                  NL Rookie
1. Jeremy Hellickson SP (TB)    1. Craig Kimbrel RP (Atl)
2. J.P. Arencibia C (Tor)             2. Freddie Freeman 1B (Atl)
3. Dustin Ackley 2B (Sea)         3. Brandon Beachy SP (Atl)

Good thing I'm not a betting man.