2012 MLB Preview: NL East

Now that my NCAA bracket filled with scratch marks and red ink I think it's time to move on to some baseball.  Each year I do a preseason preview for every team and this year will be no different.

The National League East is likely the most improved division in baseball.  They didn't lose any high profile players to other divisions and the one big name that changed teams stayed in the division (Jose Reyes).  Several key players are coming back from injury and there's a lot of young talent that's beginning to mature. As a Braves fan I'm concerned their model for success won't work unless they make some changes but as a baseball fan it's great to see Washington and Miami are no longer pushovers.  Philadelphia is still the team to beat but they're pretty beat up right now making this officially a four team race for two (or three?) spots.

Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89-73

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $101.8 million
Highest Paid Player: Chipper Jones - $13 million
Best Player: Brian McCann has been an All-Star every full season he's played.
Best Pitcher: Tommy Hanson made strides towards becoming an ace last season.  If he's over the shoulder woes he'll be the man.
Say Hello To: Tyler Pastornicky SS, Drew Sutton INF
Wave Goodbye: Alex Gonzalez SS (Mil), Derek Lowe SP (Cle), George Sherrill RP (Sea), Scott Linebrink RP (StL), Brooks Conrad INF (Mil), Nate McLouth OF (Pit)
Biggest Questions:
1. Was standing pat the right move? The Braves didn't add a single player via free agency or trade this offseason.  The club is hoping one of Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons will claim the shortstop job with a strong spring now that Alex Gonzalez has taken his .290 OBP to Milwaukee.

2. Is there enough offense to make the playoffs?  One of the reasons Atlanta didn't make any moves is because they believe the poor seasons of Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and the first half from Dan Uggla were aberrations. They'll also get a full season from Michael Bourn who will provide an upgrade in center field.  A new hitting coach was hired as insurance for these guys.

3. Will this team be able to overcome injuries?  Everyone, even Jones himself, acknowledges Chipper cannot play a full season anymore (he's already being out 3 weeks).  If someone like Heyward and/or like Uggla have to miss extended time how will the team be able to cope?  The losses of Conrad and McLouth make the bench weaker than last season and put an enormous strain on the starters to stay healthy.

Expectations: I think the offense will be better than last season but the bullpen will take small step back. They'll be in the wild card race all year but in the end will fall just short unless they make a move at the deadline.

The Braves goal this year will be to win one last time
for Chipper.  They weren't able to do it for Bobby Cox so
I'm not optimistic this will end any differently.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bourn CF

2. Prado 3B

3. McCann C

4. Uggla 2B
5. Freeman 1B

6. Heyward RF

7. Hinske LF

8. Pastornicky SS

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Hanson
2. Minor
3. Beachy
4. Jurrjens
5. Medlen

Cl: Kimbrel

Where do the Braves go from here?

Seriously, this is getting annoying.  Another top pitcher to the Yankees?  

The Braves reportedly offered AJ Burnett 5 yrs for $80 million while the Yankees got him for 5 and $82.5 million.  Factoring in taxes and cost of living, the Braves offered the better deal.  It appears winning was the deciding factor and I guess you can't blame a guy for that.  So what do the Braves do now?

The Braves reportedly had about $42 million to spend this offseason.  After trade talks for Peavy fizzled (thank you), Burnett burning them for New York, and Derek Lowe showing not interest I'm worried the Braves will throw a boatload of cash at 2nd-tier free agent in an effort to get someone to sign.  This would be a mistake.

What they should do is sit on the money.  Put more money in the draft.  Every year there is 1st and 2nd round talent that gets drafted in the 10th round because of their contract demands.  My advice is: Give in to those demands.  Pony up the dough.  Why not keep stockpiling the minor league system?  Boston does this and they are rewarded for it.  Follow their example.

The second part is to use the money they had set aside for this season on next season's free agents.  Let's compare the pitchers quickly:

2008	2009
CC Sabathia	Josh Beckett
AJ Burnett	John Lackey
Derek Lowe	Tim Hudson
Andy Pettitte	Brett Myers
Oliver Perez	Cliff Lee
Ryan Dempster	Rich Harden
Jon Garland	Erik Bedard
Randy Wolf	Kelvim Escobar
Jason Jennings	Joel Piniero
Mike Hampton	Vicente Padilla
Jamie Moyer	Brad Penny
John Smoltz	Doug Davis

Next year's market looks pretty good.  What if Atlanta signed Beckett to a huge contract?  This is unlikely, but it's possible if they hold off.  Frank Wren knows he needs 2 more starters.  How do John Lackey and Tim Hudson sound?  This is realistic and but it will only happen if the team remains patient and does not overreact.  Next year however, there is no excuse for not signing someone.  But that is a year away.  Now I'm just hoping they don't throw $10 million a year at Oliver Perez and $30 million at Raul Ibanez--wait, the Phillies already did that. 

Things are looking up already.

Phillies Ph Up.

Today Philadelphia signed Raul Ibanez to a $30+ million dollar contract over 3 years.  Ouch.

When I first read this I was flabbergasted.  I am not a Ibanez supporter and why would they give him this deal when they wouldn't give it to Pat Burrell?  The world may never know.

Fortunately for us, Keith Law has written a wonderful post about this.  Thank goodness it's not me because I just don't know what to say.