2012 MLB Preview: Predictions

It's a little late but I've decided to publish my preseason predictions anyway.

American League
East
New York	96	66	Have a solid rotation to match formidable offense
Tampa Bay	92	70	Maybe the best rotation in baseball
Boston	87	75	Lack of depth will cost them
Toronto	85	77	Still building but no playoffs in this division
Baltimore	68	94	Future is bright but rotation is worst in AL
Central
Detroit	91	71	Will lead the league in runs scored, errors
Cleveland	80	82	Need one more starter to be a factor
Chicago	77	85	Rios, Dunn rebound but Peavy, bullpen falter
Kansas City	76	86	Still waiting on young pitching to make impact
Minnesota	62	100	Questions about Mauer, Morneau, Baker linger
West
Texas	95	67	Most well rounded team in AL
LAA	89	73	Still have problems at LF, 3B, C
Seattle	73	89	Back end of rotation no match for AL offenses
Oakland	70	92	Cespedes and Weeks are good but not enough
National League
East
Atlanta	87	75	Heyward bounceback, trade of Lowe is enough
Philadelphia	86	76	Injuries to Howard, Utley hold team back
Miami	84	78	Poor outfield defense really hurts in new park
Washington	82	80	Too many questions on offense
New York	75	87	Not as bad as many expected
Central
Milwaukee	88	74	Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum combine for 54 wins
Cincinnati	87	75	Votto, Bruce lead league in teammate HR
St. Louis	84	78	Berkman, Beltran not as good as 2011
Pittsburgh	76	86	Deadline deals prevent team from reaching .500
Chicago	69	93	Theo's first year will be his worst
Houston	50	112	Have questions everywhere except 2B, LF
West
San Francisco	91	71	Great pitching and good offense takes division
Arizona	90	72	Upton, Young become top NL outfield duo
Colorado	78	84	Tulo accumulates more WAR than any 2 'mates
Los Angeles	77	85	Disgruntled Ethier, Kemp regression hurt team
San Diego	75	87	Hang tough thanks to home field advantage

2012 MLB Preview: NL East

Now that my NCAA bracket filled with scratch marks and red ink I think it's time to move on to some baseball.  Each year I do a preseason preview for every team and this year will be no different.

The National League East is likely the most improved division in baseball.  They didn't lose any high profile players to other divisions and the one big name that changed teams stayed in the division (Jose Reyes).  Several key players are coming back from injury and there's a lot of young talent that's beginning to mature. As a Braves fan I'm concerned their model for success won't work unless they make some changes but as a baseball fan it's great to see Washington and Miami are no longer pushovers.  Philadelphia is still the team to beat but they're pretty beat up right now making this officially a four team race for two (or three?) spots.

Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89-73

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $101.8 million
Highest Paid Player: Chipper Jones - $13 million
Best Player: Brian McCann has been an All-Star every full season he's played.
Best Pitcher: Tommy Hanson made strides towards becoming an ace last season.  If he's over the shoulder woes he'll be the man.
Say Hello To: Tyler Pastornicky SS, Drew Sutton INF
Wave Goodbye: Alex Gonzalez SS (Mil), Derek Lowe SP (Cle), George Sherrill RP (Sea), Scott Linebrink RP (StL), Brooks Conrad INF (Mil), Nate McLouth OF (Pit)
Biggest Questions:
1. Was standing pat the right move? The Braves didn't add a single player via free agency or trade this offseason.  The club is hoping one of Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons will claim the shortstop job with a strong spring now that Alex Gonzalez has taken his .290 OBP to Milwaukee.

2. Is there enough offense to make the playoffs?  One of the reasons Atlanta didn't make any moves is because they believe the poor seasons of Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and the first half from Dan Uggla were aberrations. They'll also get a full season from Michael Bourn who will provide an upgrade in center field.  A new hitting coach was hired as insurance for these guys.

3. Will this team be able to overcome injuries?  Everyone, even Jones himself, acknowledges Chipper cannot play a full season anymore (he's already being out 3 weeks).  If someone like Heyward and/or like Uggla have to miss extended time how will the team be able to cope?  The losses of Conrad and McLouth make the bench weaker than last season and put an enormous strain on the starters to stay healthy.

Expectations: I think the offense will be better than last season but the bullpen will take small step back. They'll be in the wild card race all year but in the end will fall just short unless they make a move at the deadline.

The Braves goal this year will be to win one last time
for Chipper.  They weren't able to do it for Bobby Cox so
I'm not optimistic this will end any differently.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bourn CF

2. Prado 3B

3. McCann C

4. Uggla 2B
5. Freeman 1B

6. Heyward RF

7. Hinske LF

8. Pastornicky SS

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Hanson
2. Minor
3. Beachy
4. Jurrjens
5. Medlen

Cl: Kimbrel

2011 MLB Predictions: NL East

 David Wright believes his Lord Helmet can save him from the Schwartz as well as concussions.

Now it's time for the NL East.  The Phillies seem to be the champion on paper but let's take a deeper look.

Philadelphia Phillies
Best Player: Chase Utley but we don't know how long he'll be out. After Utley it's probably Ryan Howard.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay is the obvious answer here.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Cliff Lee shocked everyone.
Biggest off-season loss: Jayson Werth was the team's third best hitter and was a good defensive outfielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. When will Chase Utley return? No one is certain if he'll be back in May or if it will be at the All-Star break. The Phillies may not need him to make the playoffs but winning the World Series will be an uphill climb without him.
2. How good is the rotation? Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt are four of the top twenty five pitchers in baseball. If no injuries beset the staff the offense won't need to be nearly as powerful as it has been in recent seasons.
3. Is Dominic Brown ready to be an impact player?  The Phillies don't need the rookie to be an all-star but with Utley hurt and Werth gone there is a void on offense.  Brown was the top hitting prospect last season but many scouts worry the team is too left-handed with him in the lineup.
Expectations: This is a World Series contender.  Anything short of reaching the Series will likely be seen as a disappointment.
Opening day lineup:
1. Victorino CF
2. Polanco 3B
3. Rollins SS
4. Howard 1B
5. Ibanez LF
6. Francisco RF
7. Ruiz C
8. Valdez 2B
SP Roy Halladay

If I were GM of the Braves for a day...

By not offering 1b Adam LaRoche arbitration, one would hope the Braves had a plan on how to fill the void at first base and right field.  So far there's been no activity on their part while Nick Johnson, Hideki Matsui, Mike Cameron, have already signed.  It's pretty evident Atlanta has no interest in the top two free agents Jason Bay and Matt Holliday as well.  Well, then who should they sign to help the offense?Right now, it appears Atlanta's everyday lineup looks like this:

c: Brian McCann L
1b:
2b: Martin Prado R
3b: Chipper Jones B
ss: Yunel Escobar R
lf: Matt Diaz R
cf: Nate McLouth L
rf:

Bench: David Ross c, Diory Hernandez inf, Gregor Blanco of, Omar Infante inf/of

If/when Atlanta trades Derek Lowe they will have anywhere from $10-15 million coming off the books plus another $5-7 to spend.  Here is what I recommend:

1. Sign Vladimir Guerrero. Just do it. Pay him what he wants, seriously.  Vlad was hoping to be somebody's designated hitter but it seems those spots are all taken. Even Milton Bradley was traded to the AL to take up another DH spot.  Sign Guerrero and put him at 1b.  I don't care if he sucks over there. The Braves are desperate for a right-handed power hitter and Guerrero fits the bill.  Guerrero would probably demand a 2-3 year deal for $9-12 million annually.

2. Sign Randy Winn to a two-year deal. Randy Winn would be a perfect fit in right field and it's doubtful he would demand more than two years.  Atlanta could probably get him for $3-4 million also.  Winn also gives Atlanta leverage in 2011 on what to do with Matt Diaz and his arbitration case.

3. Give Jason Heyward an extended look in spring training.  Heyward is the #1 hitting prospect in baseball and deserves a shot to make the team.  If he does make it he would form the left-handed side of a platoon with Winn/Diaz in the outfield and give the team added depth when Guerrero goes down.

If these moves are successful here's what Atlanta's batting lineup would look like in 2010:
1. Nate McLouth cf
2. Martin Prado 2b
3. Chipper Jones 3b
4. Vladimir Guerrero 1b
5. Brian McCann c
6. Yunel Escobar ss
7. Randy Winn rf
8. Matt Diaz lf

Season Preview: Atlanta Braves

2008 Record: 72-90  .444

Run differential: -25 (9^th)

2008 payroll: $102,365,683

The 2007 offseason saw Atlanta make a couple of moves which they thought would put the finishing touches on a team expected to contend and back into the playoffs.  Edgár Rentería was traded to Detroit for a couple of prospects including Jair Jurrjens, Tom Glavine was signed, and Omar Infante was acquired from the Cubs.  In the end injuries, the league’s worst outfield, and a historically awful record in one run games doomed the Braves.

While the Braves cried, “Pity me!” the rest of the league had good reason to laugh.  Yes, the amount of injuries showed bad luck but the real problem was in the plan itself.  One cannot go into a season counting on getting significant contributions from two 40+-year-old pitchers and Mr. Glass.  The key contributors in the bullpen were also associated with injuries.  Offensive superstar Mark Teiexeira’s career performance in the first half is best reflected in the number of All-Star teams he’s made (1).  Adding insult to injury was free-swinging Jeff Francouer having the worst season by a Braves outfielder EVER.

After trading for Vazquez, the 2008 offeseason headed on a downward spiral as high profile free agents Burnett, Rafael Furcal, and Griffey Jr all spurned the Braves for other deals.  Frank Wren rallied to sign a few guys, most notably Derek Lowe, in a desperate attempt to renew the faith of the fans.  Instead of signing free agents Atlanta needs to remember how they got to the playoffs to begin with: a core built and developed via a strong farm system.  Atlanta has the prospects in place for their next run.  As it is though, the Braves appear on the cusp of contention this season but if they fail it will just be a big waste of money.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Brian McCann	$3.5 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2002. Signed extension 3/07
C	David Ross	$1.4 M	Signed as FA 12/5/08
1b	Casey Kotchman	$2.89 M	Acquired in trade w/ LAA 7/29/08
2b	Kelly Johnson	$2.83 M	Drafted #38 overall 2000.
3b	Chipper Jones	$10 M	Drafted #1 overall 1990. Signed extension 11/05
SS	Yunel Escobar	$.403M	Drafted 2nd rd 2005
LF	Garret Anderson	$2.5 M	Signed as FA 2/22/09
CF	Gregor Blanco	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2000
RF	Jeff Francoeur	$3.38M	Drafted #23 overall 2002.
Inf	Martin Prado	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2001
Of	Matt Diaz	$1.24 M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 12/05
UT	Omar Infante	$1.85M	Acquired in trade w/ ChN 12/4/07
UT	Greg Norton	$.8 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 5/08. Resigned 12/08
SP	Derek Lowe	$15 M	Signed as FA 1/15/09
SP	Javier Vazquez	$11.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 12/4/08
SP	Jair Jurrjens	$.39 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 10/29/07
SP	Kenshin Kawakami	$7 M	Signed as FA 1/13/09
SP	Tom Glavine	$1 M	Signed as FA 11/07. Resigned 2/09
Cl	Mike Gonzalez	$3.45M	Acquired in trade w/ Pit 1/07
SU	Rafael Soriano	$6.1 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 12/06.
RP	Peter Moylan	$.44M	Signed as amateur FA from Australia 3/06
RP	Manny Acosta	$.39 M	Signed as FA 2/07
RP	Blaine Boyer	$.39 M	Drafted 15th rd 2005
RP	Jorge Campillo	$.39 M	Signed as FA 12/17/07
RP	Boone Logan	$.405M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 12/4/08

Say hello to: Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Boone Logan, Eric O’Flaherty, David Ross, Garret Anderson

Wave goodbye: Brent Lillibridge, Mike Hampton, John Smoltz

Rookies: Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Jordan Schafer, Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson

Potential breakout: Yunel Escobar

Welcome to Earth: Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Jorge Campillo

Likely to rebound: Jeff Francoeur (he can’t be any worse, right?),

Strengths: Innings eating rotation, infield defense

Weaknesses: The offensive output from the outfield looks bleak and no RH power hitters.

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

CF Blanco L  .251/.366/.309  1, 13  .259

SS Escobar R .288/.366/.401 10, 2  .275

3B Jones B  .364/.470/.574  22, 4  .363

C  McCann L  .301/.373/.523  23, 5  .311

LF Anderson L/Diaz R    .262/.202

2B Johnson L  .287/.349/.446  12, 11  .281

1B Kotchman L  .237/.331/.316  2, 0 . 235

RF Francoeur R  .239/.294/.359  11, 0  .231

Prediction: 3^rd place

 

Where do the Braves go from here?

Seriously, this is getting annoying.  Another top pitcher to the Yankees?  

The Braves reportedly offered AJ Burnett 5 yrs for $80 million while the Yankees got him for 5 and $82.5 million.  Factoring in taxes and cost of living, the Braves offered the better deal.  It appears winning was the deciding factor and I guess you can't blame a guy for that.  So what do the Braves do now?

The Braves reportedly had about $42 million to spend this offseason.  After trade talks for Peavy fizzled (thank you), Burnett burning them for New York, and Derek Lowe showing not interest I'm worried the Braves will throw a boatload of cash at 2nd-tier free agent in an effort to get someone to sign.  This would be a mistake.

What they should do is sit on the money.  Put more money in the draft.  Every year there is 1st and 2nd round talent that gets drafted in the 10th round because of their contract demands.  My advice is: Give in to those demands.  Pony up the dough.  Why not keep stockpiling the minor league system?  Boston does this and they are rewarded for it.  Follow their example.

The second part is to use the money they had set aside for this season on next season's free agents.  Let's compare the pitchers quickly:

2008	2009
CC Sabathia	Josh Beckett
AJ Burnett	John Lackey
Derek Lowe	Tim Hudson
Andy Pettitte	Brett Myers
Oliver Perez	Cliff Lee
Ryan Dempster	Rich Harden
Jon Garland	Erik Bedard
Randy Wolf	Kelvim Escobar
Jason Jennings	Joel Piniero
Mike Hampton	Vicente Padilla
Jamie Moyer	Brad Penny
John Smoltz	Doug Davis

Next year's market looks pretty good.  What if Atlanta signed Beckett to a huge contract?  This is unlikely, but it's possible if they hold off.  Frank Wren knows he needs 2 more starters.  How do John Lackey and Tim Hudson sound?  This is realistic and but it will only happen if the team remains patient and does not overreact.  Next year however, there is no excuse for not signing someone.  But that is a year away.  Now I'm just hoping they don't throw $10 million a year at Oliver Perez and $30 million at Raul Ibanez--wait, the Phillies already did that. 

Things are looking up already.

Vazquez to Braves for a Bag of Goodies

The White Sox traded Javier Vazquez  and Boone Logan to Atlanta for Brent Lillibridge and three prospects the other day.  I actually read Keith Law's take on this trade earlier today so Keith, if you're reading, I'm sorry for stealing some of your thunder.  Actually, it's what I get for not getting this post up earlier in the week. 

 

The Braves perspective:

The White Sox traded the man slated to be their number two starter this week.  Now, part of me wants to jump up and down because Atlanta finally has a competent pitcher besides Jair Jurrjens.  But part of me realizes that Vazquez is not the perennial all-star many had hoped while playing in Montreal but instead is a guy whose main value lies in pitching 200+ innings each year.  Typically a non-believer in "clutch", I think there's something to the notion that Vazquez struggles in pressure situations.  Is it a coincidence that his best years came pitching in empty stadiums in Montreal?  Or that his September ERA was 6.25?  Maybe, but at 2 yrs for $23 million Atlanta will try to find out.  Moving to the non-DH league should only help a pitcher, though, so in this Atlanta acquires a #3 type starter who ably eats up innings to save the fragile bullpen and if blessed with the "good Javy" gets someone capable of putting up low vote totals on the Cy Young ballot.

Boone Logan represents a throw-in.  He doesn't throw particularly hard and from what I've seen doesn't know what to do against righties so perhaps he could find some value as a LOOGY, giving the Braves three from which to choose (O'Flaherty, Ridgway, Logan).  If I had to pick I'd say O'Flaherty with Logan as a fallback.

White Sox:

SS Brent Lillibridge, 3b Jon Gilmore, LHP Santos Rodriguez, C Tyler Flowers

Brent Lillbridge is the name in the deal, but his performance has been underwhelming at the major league level.  He's essentially a singles hitter who plays good defense at shortstop with the added value of his ability to play third and center field.  This probably ends the chances that Juan Uribe and Pablo Ozuna have of coming back and may even enable Ozzie to come up with some creative lineups.

Jon Gilmore is a prospect who hit well in the  Sally League but is still young and could be seen as a replacement for Josh Fields at 3b in two or three years.  However, I don't see how he'll be an updgrade since he has little power and bad defense.

Santos Rodriguez is a lefty with major control problems but 45 strikeouts in 29 innings must've caused Kenny Williams to do a double take.  There's upside but I doubt he ever amounts to much.

The real guy in this trade is Tyler Flowers.  Flowers is a prospect who somehow managed to stick around while the Braves traded off a glut of catchers (McCann, Saltalamacchia, Clint Sammons, Max Ramirez, Brayan Pena) so that says something right there.  His defense remains a work in progress causing some scouts to suggest a move from behind the dish is inevitable, but I think his offense will cause the Sox to overlook his defensive deficiencies in a Piazza-esque sort of way if you wish.  And for a team who has put up with Pierzynski, why wouldn't they?  In fact Flowers should be ready to take over full time right when Pierzynski is given the wave good-bye in 2010.

Verdict:

The White Sox get a player that should provide a serious offensive impact whether at 1b, DH, or C.  Obviously this addition will be maximized if Flowers stays at catcher but for a team with aging stars, this is a very very good acquisition.  Lillibridge is a nice utility player with some speed but no pop and Gilmore could be a starting 3b but that is far enough a way that it's perhaps just wishful thinking.  In my opinion, Flowers ranks as the Sox #3 prospect and allows them to save a bucket full of change.

On Atlanta's side they get a player that has value but what's the difference in winning 83 games from 75?  That's all I see and frankly it frustrates me.  At least they didn't give up Kelly Johnson.  Advantage: White Sox.