2012 MLB Preview: NL East

Now that my NCAA bracket filled with scratch marks and red ink I think it's time to move on to some baseball.  Each year I do a preseason preview for every team and this year will be no different.

The National League East is likely the most improved division in baseball.  They didn't lose any high profile players to other divisions and the one big name that changed teams stayed in the division (Jose Reyes).  Several key players are coming back from injury and there's a lot of young talent that's beginning to mature. As a Braves fan I'm concerned their model for success won't work unless they make some changes but as a baseball fan it's great to see Washington and Miami are no longer pushovers.  Philadelphia is still the team to beat but they're pretty beat up right now making this officially a four team race for two (or three?) spots.

Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89-73

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $101.8 million
Highest Paid Player: Chipper Jones - $13 million
Best Player: Brian McCann has been an All-Star every full season he's played.
Best Pitcher: Tommy Hanson made strides towards becoming an ace last season.  If he's over the shoulder woes he'll be the man.
Say Hello To: Tyler Pastornicky SS, Drew Sutton INF
Wave Goodbye: Alex Gonzalez SS (Mil), Derek Lowe SP (Cle), George Sherrill RP (Sea), Scott Linebrink RP (StL), Brooks Conrad INF (Mil), Nate McLouth OF (Pit)
Biggest Questions:
1. Was standing pat the right move? The Braves didn't add a single player via free agency or trade this offseason.  The club is hoping one of Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons will claim the shortstop job with a strong spring now that Alex Gonzalez has taken his .290 OBP to Milwaukee.

2. Is there enough offense to make the playoffs?  One of the reasons Atlanta didn't make any moves is because they believe the poor seasons of Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and the first half from Dan Uggla were aberrations. They'll also get a full season from Michael Bourn who will provide an upgrade in center field.  A new hitting coach was hired as insurance for these guys.

3. Will this team be able to overcome injuries?  Everyone, even Jones himself, acknowledges Chipper cannot play a full season anymore (he's already being out 3 weeks).  If someone like Heyward and/or like Uggla have to miss extended time how will the team be able to cope?  The losses of Conrad and McLouth make the bench weaker than last season and put an enormous strain on the starters to stay healthy.

Expectations: I think the offense will be better than last season but the bullpen will take small step back. They'll be in the wild card race all year but in the end will fall just short unless they make a move at the deadline.

The Braves goal this year will be to win one last time
for Chipper.  They weren't able to do it for Bobby Cox so
I'm not optimistic this will end any differently.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bourn CF

2. Prado 3B

3. McCann C

4. Uggla 2B
5. Freeman 1B

6. Heyward RF

7. Hinske LF

8. Pastornicky SS

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Hanson
2. Minor
3. Beachy
4. Jurrjens
5. Medlen

Cl: Kimbrel

Top 5 Prospects Who Could Move this Month

Yesterday I wrote about ten players who will likely be moved before this year's trade deadline.  In every deal that's made someone (or cash) needs to be going the other way, too.  Most contenders won't want to give up a piece of their core so prospects tend to make up the bulk of deadline deals. For many teams prospects are the preferred haul anyway.  Below I've listed a few prospects who are likely to be dealt in exchange for help in the final third of the season.

1. Jonathan Singleton 1B, Phillies
With Ryan Howard entrenched at first base for the next several seasons, it's possible the Phillies will look to move their top hitting prospect for some help. Singleton is no sure thing - he's still only 19 and in High A - but he's already shown a knack for taking ball four to go along with his line drive stroke.

2. Arodys Vizcaino/Randall Delgado/Mike Minor SP, Braves
If the Braves are able to acquire a key piece to their team they'll have to give up a good pitching prospect. Everyone should just assume Julio Teheran is untouchable so other teams should turn their focus to three other players rated as B+ or A- prospects.  Vizcaino has the highest ceiling but also has battled elbow and back issues. Delgado has the lowest ceiling of the three (he grades a 3rd starter in the majors) but is nearly a finished product and fared better than Teheran did in his cup of coffee.  Minor has better stuff than Delgado but doesn't have the injury history of Vizcaino. Plus he's already pitched a fair amount in the majors with success.

3. Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick OF, Red Sox
The Red Sox have never been shy about making a splash to help them get a World Series ring. Kalish once ranked as a top prospect but has battled nagging injuries preventing him from playing to his full potential.  Reddick, called to the majors over of Kalish, has really played well lately but many scouts still worry about his lack of plate discipline. Neither of these guys will likely turn into a star but both could bring home a solid left-handed reliever in a poor lefty market.

4. Tanner Scheppers P, Rangers
Scheppers is an enigma. He started off fantastically last season but once he moved to the starting rotation really struggled. He was then moved back to the bullpen where he continued to struggle. This season has been no different. His peripherals suggest a lower ERA than the 5.29 he's currently sporting. Somebody will see the giant P on his back (Potential) and target him in a deal with Texas.

5. Mat Gamel 4C, Brewers
Technically, Gamel's not a prospect. But he hasn't gotten a full time job yet thanks to all of his positions being blocked (Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee, Ryan Braun, and Cory Hart) by established major leaguers.  The Brewers don't have a lot to offer and with the Prince's impending free agency it is very likely they go all in. After all they did when they got Sabathia. Gamel is ready now though he'd be best utilized without his glove.

2011 MLB Predictions: NL East

 David Wright believes his Lord Helmet can save him from the Schwartz as well as concussions.

Now it's time for the NL East.  The Phillies seem to be the champion on paper but let's take a deeper look.

Philadelphia Phillies
Best Player: Chase Utley but we don't know how long he'll be out. After Utley it's probably Ryan Howard.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay is the obvious answer here.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Cliff Lee shocked everyone.
Biggest off-season loss: Jayson Werth was the team's third best hitter and was a good defensive outfielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. When will Chase Utley return? No one is certain if he'll be back in May or if it will be at the All-Star break. The Phillies may not need him to make the playoffs but winning the World Series will be an uphill climb without him.
2. How good is the rotation? Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt are four of the top twenty five pitchers in baseball. If no injuries beset the staff the offense won't need to be nearly as powerful as it has been in recent seasons.
3. Is Dominic Brown ready to be an impact player?  The Phillies don't need the rookie to be an all-star but with Utley hurt and Werth gone there is a void on offense.  Brown was the top hitting prospect last season but many scouts worry the team is too left-handed with him in the lineup.
Expectations: This is a World Series contender.  Anything short of reaching the Series will likely be seen as a disappointment.
Opening day lineup:
1. Victorino CF
2. Polanco 3B
3. Rollins SS
4. Howard 1B
5. Ibanez LF
6. Francisco RF
7. Ruiz C
8. Valdez 2B
SP Roy Halladay

Cliff Lee: He's baaaaack

I've refrained from adding any commentary relating to free agent signings thus far but "The Decision 2010"--wait, someone already used that? Fine. But Cliff Lee choosing Philadelphia's offer over the Yankees offer, which would have made him ridiculously filthy rich, was a bit surprising.

Another blockbuster!

When Roy Halladay is involved in a trade you expect a lot of players to be moving. But would you expect one of those to be Cliff Lee? Me neither. Let's break it down.

Philadelphia receives: Roy Halladay SP, Phillippe Aumont RHP, Tyson Gilles, Juan Ramirez RHP

Yes, the Phillies get Halladay (and his 3 year extension + club option for a 4th) but was it worth trading the only real prospects they had? Only time will tell. Halladay is a top five pitcher in baseball and moving to the National League should provide a nice bump to his stats. But trading Lee for him doesn't improve the team much as you might think. This trade was most likely initiated due to Lee's unwillingness for a discount as opposed to Halladay who just wants to play for a winner. If he stays healthy it's likely his performance boost will be enough to cause Halladay's name to be mentioned as a possible electee to Cooperstown.

Aumont is a prospect with a decent arm but really, I don't see him turning into much more than a #3 starter. It's also possible he ends up in the bullpen. The only thing I know about Gilles is that he's perhaps the fastest player in the minors. Another Michael Bourn perhaps? Juan Ramirez is another guy who has tons of "stuff" but no idea how to use it. He could end up anywhere from a dominant reliever to a guy who never makes it.

Seattle receives: Cliff Lee LHP

Cliff Lee, as we all know, is a former Cy Young Award winner who made the transition to the Junior League with no problems. He was also the best pitcher in October last season. How Seattle found a way to finagle themselves into this deal is beyond me, but they will love seeing Lee take the ball every fifth day right behind Felix. This team just got a lot better.

Toronto receives: Kyle Drabek SP, Travis d'Arnaud C, Michael Taylor OF

Toronto is getting some really nice prospects here but where's the major leaguer? If Toronto could've pulled in someone like Brandon Morrow or even Michael Saunders this would be a huge get. Unfortunately neither was included leaving the Jays to hope that these three prospects hit their projected ceilings.

I love Kyle Drabek as a starter and agreed with the Phillies last year when they refused to include him in any deal. I know my buddy Keith Law feels there's nothing special about him (he'll probably say as much in his trade analysis) but I humbly disagree. Michael Taylor is a monster of a prospect who would make their outfield sickening except for the fact they turned around and traded him to the A's (more on that below). Travis d'Arnaud is a solid catching prospect and could end up performing like a young Jason Kendall (without the speed) but I think that's a little optimistic. I'm wondering if including him allowed Philadelphia to gain some leverage in this trade considering Toronto didn't have a single catcher on their 40-man roster Sunday.

Later, Toronto traded Michael Taylor to the A's for 3b prospect Brett Wallace. I'm not sure I really understand this but let me take a gander. Brett Wallace is not a good defensive player and it's possible he won't be able to play the hot corner for long. He appears to have the ability to hit for high average but I'm not sure he'll ever be much of a power hitter. I think this is what motivated the A's to deal him. Wallace is ready for an extended look in spring training and I won't be surprised to see him start the year with Toronto in 2010.

For Oakland, Michael Taylor immediately becomes the best prospect in the system. The A's have several prospects who can hit but only one who hits for power. Oakland tends to be moderately difficult on power hitters and I don't know how well Taylor's power will translate to Oakland's home park, but perhaps management felt it translated better than Wallace's skills since Oakland is known for suppressing batting average.

Verdict:

Philadelphia gets a win for improving their team (although slightly) this season. I'm still on the fence on whether or not they will be improved in 2014 because of it.

Seattle, tell your fans to get excited. With the league's best defense and now an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, the Mariners have to be considered legitimate post season contenders. If they are able to shore up the bullpen then this team could be scary. Big win here.

Toronto gets some prospects I love but are missing the one major league player that allows me to say they get a win out of this deal. Instead they likely walk away getting a #2 starter whose had some history with injuries, a 3b who will hit for average, and a catching prospect who will be a solid but not spectacular starter.

Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Record: 92-70  .568

Run differential: +119 (2^nd)

2008 payroll: $98,269,880

Last year’s Phillie team was not unlike the previous year’s or even 2006.  The core was made up of Utley, Rollins, and Howard as well as a solid pitching staff and good defense.  Why was 2008 the year the Phillies were able to bring home the championship?  There’s no real answer to this question except that maybe they were due.  Though he wasn’t infallible (getting nothing for Bobby Abreu, signing Adam Eaton), Pat Gillick deserves a lot of credit for plugging and tweaking his team to get the pieces he felt they needed.   Maybe more credit should go to former GM Ed Wade who drafted the big 3 and later as GM of the Astros traded Brad Lidge to Philadelphia for a bag of peanuts.  Also, Charlie Manuel was probably the best manager in baseball last season.  Manuel knew which relievers he could use in certain situations, was not afraid to pinch hit with his backup catcher, and only attempted stolen bases with the guys that should attempt them.  No matter how you look it at it, this all goes to show that if you build for a championship and stick with it, you can bring home the hardware.

So what to expect from 2009?  New GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is not off to a good start.  His first move was to not offer Pat Burrell arbitration.  Raul Ibanez, who was offered arbitration by Seattle, signed to take Burrell’s place at a way over market rate with a 3 year $30 million contract, costing the team their first round draft pick.  Later Burrell signed at market rate with Tampa to be their DH.  Since Burrell was not offered arbitration the team gets no compensation for losing him and is now susceptible to left-handed pitching in the heart of the order.  Also, Amaro failed to get a quality backup infielder in case Utley is to miss any serious time from off-season hip surgery.  That isn’t to say any of these moves will prevent the Phillies from repeating but in a tight division every little move matters.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Carlos Ruiz	$.425 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2005
C	Ronny Paulino	$.424 M	Acquired in trade w/ Pit 12/08
1b	Ryan Howard	$15 M	Drafted 5th rd 2001. Signed extension 2/09
2b	Chase Utley	$11 M	Drafted #15 overall 2000.  Signed extension 1/07
3b	Pedro Feliz	$5 M	Signed as FA 1/28/08
SS	Jimmy Rollins	$7.5 M	Drafted 2nd rd 1996. Signed extension 6/05
LF	Raul Ibanez	$6.5 M	Signed as FA 12/16/08
CF	Shane Victorino	$3.13 M	Selected in 2003 Rule V draft
RF	Jayson Werth	$2 M	Signed as FA 12/06
Inf	Eric Bruntlett	$.6 M	Acquired in trade w/ Hou 11/07.
UT	Greg Dobbs	$1.15 M	Claimed off waivers 1/07
Of	Geoff Jenkins	$6.75 M	Signed as FA 12/07
Of	Matt Stairs	$1 M	Acquired in trade w/ Tor 8/28/08
SP	Cole Hamels	$4.35 M	Drafted #17 overall 2002. Signed extension 1/09
SP	Brett Myers	$12 M	Drafted #12 overall 1999.
SP	Jamie Moyer	$6.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 8/06. Resigned 12/08
SP	Joe Blanton	$5.48 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 7/17/08
SP	J.A. Happ	$.39 M	Drafted 3rd rd 2004
Cl	Brad Lidge	$11.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Hou 11/07.  Signed extension 7/08
SU	Ryan Madson	$2 M	Drafted 9th rd 1998
RP	Scott Eyre	$2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Cubs 8/08. Resigned 11/08
RP	Chad Durbin	$1.64 M	Signed as FA 12/07
RP	Chan Ho Park	$2.5 M	Signed as FA 12/15/08
RP	Clay Condrey	$.65 M	Acquired in trade w/ StL 12/4/08
RP	Adam Eaton	$8.5 M	Signed as a FA 11/06

Say hello to: Raul Ibañez, Ronny Paulino

Wave goodbye: So Taguchi, Pat Burrell, RJ Swindle, Jason Jaramillo, Greg Golson

Rookies: Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, J.A. Happ

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Jason Donald, Marcus Giles, Pablo Ozuna, Gary Majewski

Potential breakout: Ryan Madson

Welcome to Earth:  Shane Victorino, everyone in the bullpen not named Madson

Likely to rebound: Geoff Jenkins.  There aren’t a lot of candidates here

Strengths: The heart of this order is the best in the NL.  Utley and Rollins are both GG material up the middle.

Weaknesses: The bench is really not that good.  There are a lot of injury risks on the roster.

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

RF Werth R .273/.363/.498  24, 20  .301

LF Ibañez L .293/.358/.479  23, 2  .293

2B Utley L .292/.380/.535  33, 14  .311

SS Rollins R  .277/.349/.437  11, 47  .285

1B Howard L .251/.339/.543  48, 1  .292

CF Victorino B  .293/.352/.447  14, 36  .282

3B Feliz R .249/.302/.402  14, 0  .247

C  Ruiz R .219/.320/.300  4, 1  .224

Prediction: 2^nd place and the NL wildcard. 

Phillies Ph Up.

Today Philadelphia signed Raul Ibanez to a $30+ million dollar contract over 3 years.  Ouch.

When I first read this I was flabbergasted.  I am not a Ibanez supporter and why would they give him this deal when they wouldn't give it to Pat Burrell?  The world may never know.

Fortunately for us, Keith Law has written a wonderful post about this.  Thank goodness it's not me because I just don't know what to say.