Power 16: February 10, 2012

Though Austin Rivers' 3-pointer won the game for the Blue Devils it's still not enough 
to earn them a 1 seed. There's still time. And seriously, what was Tyler Zeller thinking?

I held off making this week's Power 16 since there were so many intriguing games in the middle of the week. It paid off.  There's a lot of shuffling going on and while the top teams are starting to secure position the 3's and 4's are not even close to being settled. Check it out to see who moved up and who moved down.

1's	Record	RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Kentucky	24-1 (11-1)	3 / 74/ 5-1
Syracuse	24-1 (11-1)	1 /12 / 6-1
Ohio St.	21-3 (8-2)	4 /41 / 6-3
Missouri	22-2 (9-2)	9 /102 / 6-1

Kentucky continues to roll and unless they lose more than two times down the stretch a 1 seed is all locked up.  Syracuse held off a feisty Georgetown squad this week to stay atop the Big East.  They're in a dogfight with Kentucky for the top overall seed.  Ohio St. is 10-2 over their last 12 games and looks like they've got the Big Ten wrapped up. Missouri earns themselves the final 1 seed by currently sitting in first place in the Big 12. Wins over Kansas and Baylor help their cause.

Power 16: January 29, 2012

The Racers danced with excitement when I informed them of their inclusion
in my latest Power 16.  This is the type of reaction we like to see here at Sportstemps.

January's nearly over and there's still quite a bit of shuffling going on.  Syracuse finally lost, a third team entered the ACC title discussion (Florida St.), Wisconsin's back making the Big Ten more muddled than ever, and mid-majors are on the rise.  February is the most important month of the year since it's the last chance for teams to grab quality wins before the conference tournaments and mid-majors get to play in Bracket Busters.  This is also the month where the average fan who wants to win money in their bracket pools should begin to pay attention. Read on to see who's moved since the last Power 16.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 50
Syracuse	22-1 (9-1)	4-0
Kentucky	21-1 (7-0)	5-1
Ohio St.	18-3 (6-2)	4-3
North Carolina	17-3 (4-1)	4-3

Though Syracuse lost at Notre Dame, they still sit atop the Big East and are an impressive 4-0 against the RPI top 50 with three of those wins coming against top 25 teams.  Kentucky won a close one last weekend against Alabama and now have a commanding lead in the SEC.  Their only loss remains a one point defeat at Indiana making this team a lock for a 1 seed.  Don't look now but Ohio St. is officially on a roll - playing Nebraska and Penn St. helps - and are sitting in a first place tie with Michigan St. in the Big Ten. UNC moves into the 1's almost by default as Baylor continues to struggle with the best teams.

Power 16: January 18, 2012

Soph. Dion Waiters leads the Orange's excellent defense this season.
According to Kenpom.com Waiters ranks 3rd in the nation in steal % which
along with his teammates puts Syracuse first nationally in steal %. This team
has to be the favorite to cut down the nets in April.

It's been more than two weeks since I put out a Power 16 and there has been some shuffling.  Conference play is underway for everyone so we're starting to sort out the pretenders from the contenders.  At 2/3 of the way through the season, if your team hasn't started to put things together by now it's likely they will not.  Here's how we stand in the third week of January:

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Syracuse	20-0 (7-0)	Florida, Marquette, Stanford
Kentucky	18-1 (4-0)	Kansas, UNC, Louisville
Ohio St.	16-3 (4-2)	Duke, Florida, Indiana
Baylor	17-1 (4-1)	Kansas St., St. Mary's, BYU

Syracuse has been phenomenal.  At 20-0 they're one of only two undefeated teams remaining (Murray St.) and though the Big East is no cakewalk there are no teams that are on the same level with the Orange.  Kentucky will be tested vs. Alabama this weekend but with their only loss at Indiana they've got a firm grasp on a one seed.  Ohio St. is only 4-2 in conference play but has one of the best resumes of any team in the nation.  Plus Jared Sullinger is healthy and the committee will take that into consideration.  Baylor is a bit of an enigma.  They haven't played many top teams and their 18 point loss at Kansas raises some questions.

Power 16: Ringing in the New Year

What better way for the blog to celebrate the new year than with the first Power 16 of the college basketball season!  It's still early and only half the conferences have played a conference game but we're starting to see some separation at the top.  Remember, the Power 16 predicts which teams would earn protective seeds if the NCAA Tournament began today. 

Marquis Teague may be the best freshman
in the country.  He's also the starting PG for
the nation's best team. 

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Kentucky	13-1 (0-0)	Kanas, UNC, Louisville
North Carolina	12-2 (0-0)	Michigan St., Wisconsin, Texas
Indiana	13-1 (1-1)	Kentucky, Ohio St., NC St.
Syracuse	14-0 (1-0)	Florida, Stanford, Seton Hall

Kentucky has been the best team this season; they own the best collection of quality wins and their only loss was suffered at IU.  I expect them to maintain their position all year.  North Carolina looks like another top tier team despite suffering a couple of losses (@UNLV, @Kentucky).  Their non-conference schedule was strong and boosts them to the #2 overall at this point. Indiana has home victories over both Kentucky and Ohio St.  They may not be able to sustain this level all year but they're pretty darn good and it will be a surprise if they lose at home this season.  Despite zero losses Syracuse sits at number four.  Going undefeated this long is impressive but it's slightly less impressive when you see they've only played one true road game, tied with Missouri for the fewest in the country.

January 23: Power 16

I've been slacking lately and haven't posted a Power 16 yet. Remember, this is not who I necessarily feel the top sixteen teams are but instead these are the sixteen teams that currently hold an inside track to receiving a protected seed (1-4) on Selection Sunday.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
Ohio St.	20-0 (7-0)	2-0
Duke	18-1 (5-1)	1-0
Pittsburgh	19-1 (7-0)	4-1
Kansas	18-1 (3-1)	1-1

Ohio St. continues to roll along, putting up the most impressive undefeated record thus far. Their big road win in Champaign over the weekend cements their spot as the #1 overall seed.  Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and shouldn't expect many difficult matchups along the way. They've edged their way back to #2 overall.  Pitt is possibly the best team in the Big East and is a serious National Title contender.  Kansas home loss to Texas drops them down two spots but they're still clinging to a number one seed.

Feb 14: Power 16

We're one week closer to March and while many teams have solidified themselves as contenders there's been some movement in the Power 16.

 Now that Evan Turner is back in the fold, Ohio St. should be 

considered a serious contender for the Final Four.

1. Kansas - Only Kansas St. has challenged the Jayhawks in conference play.  This team should cruise the rest of the way.  Chances of #1 overall seed: 80%
2. Kentucky - Tennessee played them tough at Rupp Arena last night but Kentucky is starting to silence the critics who claim there is too much youth on this team to take them seriously.  Odds of #1 seed in NCAA: 70%
3. Syracuse - Just when you thought the Orange were gaining on Kansas they lose at home to a bubble team. Ouch.  Still 24-2 is mighty impressive.  Play at Georgetown this week so the ride might get a bit bumpy.  Odds of #1 seed: 67%
4. Villanova - Sneaky win in Morgantown last Monday solidifies Villanova a notch above the next four.  If you like scoring you like Villanova basketball.  Odds of #1 seed: 50%
5. Purdue - Statement win in East Lansing shows these Boilers should be taken seriously.  A 5-1 record against the RPI top 25 makes them the most likely candidate to challenge for a #1 seed.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
6. Duke - Crushed the Terrapins yesterday.  There will be no challenger for the Duke's regular season title although they still have three road games left.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
7. West Virginia - A bad week for the Mountaineers as they lost both at home to Villanova and at Pitt in a 3 OT thriller.  A loss this week may cost them #2 seed.
8. Kansas St. - A win over Iowa St. moved the Wildcats to 7-3 in Big 12 play.  They're now at the easier part of their schedule with the only game they should have much trouble in is a road game against the Jayhawks.  If they don't slip up beforehand, KSU may have locked up a 2 seed.
9. Michigan St. - This is where the rankings get fuzzy.  Lucas is back and so is the Spartans' mojo.  Indiana appears to be the unfortunate victim of MSU's renewed focus before Ohio St. comes to town Saturday.
10. Georgetown - Wildly inconsistent.  The Hoyas play extremely well against good teams yet have losses to Old Dominion, home to S. Florida, and now at Rutgers.  Expect a tight game in their first round match-up of the NCAA tournament.
11. Ohio St. - The win at Illinois should act as a wakeup call to everyone.  Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball and Ohio St. is an elite team when he plays.  If the Buckeyes defeat Purdue this week they'll vault into the #2 seed group.
12. New Mexico - Steve Alford has this team ready for the NCAA Tournament.  The Lobos had a couple of impressive road wins this week against UNLV and Utah.
13. Wisconsin - The home loss to Illinois was a bit of a shocker.  Still, Wisconsin is 9-4 in Big Ten play and completely annihilated the Hoosiers yesterday.
14. Brigham Young - There's no shame in losing on the road to UNLV but losing there shows the Cougars aren't unstoppable.  They may be a better team than New Mexico but we'll have to wait until the end of the month to prove it.
15. Vanderbilt - A complete trouncing of Tennessee keeps the Commodores in the Power 16.  Next Saturday's home match vs. Kentucky could be the game of the weekend.
16. Gonzaga - Sweeping the top three teams in the WCC moves the Zags into the Power 16 for the first time this year.  The WCC doesn't participate in Bracket Busters so the Zags next meaningful game won't take place until their conference tournament.  For now they need to continue to win to avoid slipping in the minds of the committee.

Also considered: Butler, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV

The Big 12

With all the talk of the craziness in the Big Ten, I thought I'd wander a bit and focus on the Big 12. 

If you've been reading the blog (or not) you're aware that Kansas is really good.  You might also have heard since being annointed the #1 team in the country Texas is 2-5.  Unfortunately the rest of the conference has taken a back seat to these noteworthy performances.
Here are the standings as of 2/10/10:

 

	Conf.		Overall
Kansas	23	1	9	0
Kansas St.	19	4	6	3
Texas A&M	17	6	6	3
Missouri	17	6	5	3
Texas	19	5	5	4
Baylor	17	5	4	4
Oklahoma St.	16	7	4	5
Texas Tech	16	7	4	5
Oklahoma	13	10	4	5
Iowa St.	13	10	2	6
Nebraska	13	10	1	7
Colorado	11	12	2	7

 

• Kansas is truly an elite team as they rank second in both adjusted (tempo-free) offense and defense.  They've nearly locked up a one seed and have to be the favorite to earn the number one overall seed.
• Kansas St. now has to be considered the second best team in the conference. With wins over Xavier and on the road at UNLV they have a decent non-conference resume.  If there were still doubters after starting 17-3, taking Kansas in OT should have convinced them this team is for real.  They are currently sitting in the 2-4 seed range.  

Read about the other teams after the jump.