Early Observations

We've played about four weeks of college basketball thus far and the world is already abuzz about how incredible these freshmen are, that Kentucky's already a disappointment, and that maybe the Big Ten is the best conference again this year. The new rules are being enforced causing several teams to struggle while other have found a way to exploit them.  It's still early but here are a few of my observations as the first holiday tournaments get going.

Five Surprising Teams

1. UMass - I had no expectations for the Minutemen entering the season and

   

   Who can stop this guy?

   I considered them an NIT team at best.  They've only played two home games out of six (the other four were on neutral courts) yet have an unblemished record.  Their wins have come over BC, LSU, Youngstown State, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Clemson.  The last two got my attention. Color me impressed.
2. Pittsburgh - Pitt's best win thus far is a 21 point shellacking over Stanford on a neutral site.  And that's my point; this team is 6-0 and their closest win was 19 points. Things are looking good.
3. Dayton - They lost to Baylor by one last night but are 5-1 on the season with an impressive win over Gonzaga on Monday.  I thought they might be the second best team in the A-10 prior to the season and now I feel more confident in that pick.  They have a few more challenging games on the docket before the regular season begins. Keep this team in mind in March.
4. Nebraska - They're just 4-2 so far with losses to Dayton and UAB.  Still, the style of play has been effective and they're forcing opponents to shoot tough shots while defending the rim better than maybe anyone else. Offensively they're not turning the ball over and are hitting 37% of their threes. I'm not sure this can last but the team is better than I expected.
5. Wichita State - Everyone should know the Shockers by now. I'm not surprised they're MVC favorites but I am surprised at how well they're playing. This team lost three seniors from last year and I'm not aware of any impact freshmen on the roster.  Last night's thirteen point win over BYU was a statement win.  They've also got dates with St. Louis, Tennessee, and Alabama that warrant our attention. Gregg Marshall is one heck of a coach.

Five Disappointing Teams

1. Georgetown - What. the. #%&*?  Georgetown was many people's pick to win the new Big East. So far they're not inspiring anyone. A loss to Oregon is not a big deal, but Northeastern?  Sure, they beat VCU but are we sure VCU is as good as the pollsters say?  This team fouls too much and until they fix that they'll find themselves letting teams they should be putting away hanging around for far too long.
2. Kansas State - Okay Illinois fans, maybe you were right.  Year two in the Bruce Weber era is not off to a good start and I'm dubious this ship is going to be righted.  Their best win is over Oral Roberts and have lost to No. Colorado, Charlotte, and Georgetown.  Let's see what happens on December 5th when they face Ole Miss. That might make or break their season.
3. North Carolina State - How do you lose to North Carolina Central at home? This team also lost by double digits to Cincinnati and doesn't have a quality win so far.  They get Northwestern at home in the Big10/ACC Challenge.  Since we already know Northwestern's a bottom tier Big Ten team, seeing how they fare in that game should be a good measuring stick. 
4. Virginia Tech - Lost at home to South Carolina Upstate, lost on a neutral site to Michigan State by 19, and lost in a pseudo-road game to Seton Hall.  The defense just hasn't been up to snuff and makes me think the ACC's bottom half is going to drag the entire conference RPI down.
5. Marquette - How do you only score 35 at home? Granted, Ohio State is a tough defense but 35 at home? Inexcusable.  Losing at Arizona State by two is a tough luck loss and not one to dwell on. This team is talented but that home loss still has me shaking my head.

The five best players so far are...

1. Jabari Parker - Duke: Parker has been incredible. He's hit over 60% of his threes, is getting to the line, and he's doing this in about 30 minutes a game.  Some say he reminds them of Grant Hill - I'm inclined to think he's more like Antoine Walker - but right now he looks like the first overall pick in the NBA draft.
2. Marcus Smart - Oklahoma State: Did we all see what he did against Memphis last week? Who can guard him in college? He's 6'4" and built sort of like LeBron.  He's quick enough to get by his man into the lane and he's improved his jump shot enough to where he doesn't have to drive on most plays. This is why he's averaging 21 points a game so far.
3. Doug McDermott - Creighton: Mr. Efficiency himself. Dougie fresh is hitting 79% on his freebies, 57% on his twos, and 50% of his threes.  The man may never be a great professional player but he reminds me so much of Wally Szczerbiak in that he can literally hit any shot.
4. Jahii Carson - Arizona State: Carson is 5'10" yet most of his shots are layups.  He's so quick that he can get by anybody.  The sophomore is also hitting 56% of his three pointers and is averaging over 5 assists a game.  He even put up 40 points against UNLV. Wowzah.
5. Tim Frazier - Penn State: Is it possible Frazier's a better shooter than he was pre-injury? The early returns have me thinking yes.  His per game averages thus far are 16 points, 7 assists, plus four rebounds and two steals.  He's really really good.

And finally, the best five teams to date are:

1. Oklahoma State - Marcus Smart is really good and he's got some good wingmen. 
2. Michigan State - I really like this team and think they're the class of the Big Ten but I'm not sure how much better they can get.
3. Arizona - They haven't played anyone significant yet but I'm impressed with what I've seen.  Don't forget about their super freshman Aaron Gordon either.
4. Kansas - The win over Duke was impressive but I don't think this team's hit their groove yet. It's going to be quite a battle for the top in the Big 12.
5. Pitt - I've already talked about these guys.  The new ACC is going to be interesting to say the least.

Power 16: February 10, 2012

Though Austin Rivers' 3-pointer won the game for the Blue Devils it's still not enough 
to earn them a 1 seed. There's still time. And seriously, what was Tyler Zeller thinking?

I held off making this week's Power 16 since there were so many intriguing games in the middle of the week. It paid off.  There's a lot of shuffling going on and while the top teams are starting to secure position the 3's and 4's are not even close to being settled. Check it out to see who moved up and who moved down.

1's	Record	RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Kentucky	24-1 (11-1)	3 / 74/ 5-1
Syracuse	24-1 (11-1)	1 /12 / 6-1
Ohio St.	21-3 (8-2)	4 /41 / 6-3
Missouri	22-2 (9-2)	9 /102 / 6-1

Kentucky continues to roll and unless they lose more than two times down the stretch a 1 seed is all locked up.  Syracuse held off a feisty Georgetown squad this week to stay atop the Big East.  They're in a dogfight with Kentucky for the top overall seed.  Ohio St. is 10-2 over their last 12 games and looks like they've got the Big Ten wrapped up. Missouri earns themselves the final 1 seed by currently sitting in first place in the Big 12. Wins over Kansas and Baylor help their cause.

Power 16: January 29, 2012

The Racers danced with excitement when I informed them of their inclusion
in my latest Power 16.  This is the type of reaction we like to see here at Sportstemps.

January's nearly over and there's still quite a bit of shuffling going on.  Syracuse finally lost, a third team entered the ACC title discussion (Florida St.), Wisconsin's back making the Big Ten more muddled than ever, and mid-majors are on the rise.  February is the most important month of the year since it's the last chance for teams to grab quality wins before the conference tournaments and mid-majors get to play in Bracket Busters.  This is also the month where the average fan who wants to win money in their bracket pools should begin to pay attention. Read on to see who's moved since the last Power 16.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 50
Syracuse	22-1 (9-1)	4-0
Kentucky	21-1 (7-0)	5-1
Ohio St.	18-3 (6-2)	4-3
North Carolina	17-3 (4-1)	4-3

Though Syracuse lost at Notre Dame, they still sit atop the Big East and are an impressive 4-0 against the RPI top 50 with three of those wins coming against top 25 teams.  Kentucky won a close one last weekend against Alabama and now have a commanding lead in the SEC.  Their only loss remains a one point defeat at Indiana making this team a lock for a 1 seed.  Don't look now but Ohio St. is officially on a roll - playing Nebraska and Penn St. helps - and are sitting in a first place tie with Michigan St. in the Big Ten. UNC moves into the 1's almost by default as Baylor continues to struggle with the best teams.

Power 16: January 18, 2012

Soph. Dion Waiters leads the Orange's excellent defense this season.
According to Kenpom.com Waiters ranks 3rd in the nation in steal % which
along with his teammates puts Syracuse first nationally in steal %. This team
has to be the favorite to cut down the nets in April.

It's been more than two weeks since I put out a Power 16 and there has been some shuffling.  Conference play is underway for everyone so we're starting to sort out the pretenders from the contenders.  At 2/3 of the way through the season, if your team hasn't started to put things together by now it's likely they will not.  Here's how we stand in the third week of January:

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Syracuse	20-0 (7-0)	Florida, Marquette, Stanford
Kentucky	18-1 (4-0)	Kansas, UNC, Louisville
Ohio St.	16-3 (4-2)	Duke, Florida, Indiana
Baylor	17-1 (4-1)	Kansas St., St. Mary's, BYU

Syracuse has been phenomenal.  At 20-0 they're one of only two undefeated teams remaining (Murray St.) and though the Big East is no cakewalk there are no teams that are on the same level with the Orange.  Kentucky will be tested vs. Alabama this weekend but with their only loss at Indiana they've got a firm grasp on a one seed.  Ohio St. is only 4-2 in conference play but has one of the best resumes of any team in the nation.  Plus Jared Sullinger is healthy and the committee will take that into consideration.  Baylor is a bit of an enigma.  They haven't played many top teams and their 18 point loss at Kansas raises some questions.

Conference Power Rankings: Big East

It's no secret the Sportstemps are partial to the happenings in the Midwest and tend to neglect items that happen on the coasts.  While the watching games on the West Coast can be a bit inconvenient due to scheduling, East Coast games seem to be on whenever you're flipping through the channels.  The world's biggest sports network will pummel the average American with commercials advertising mediocre matchups just because they happen close to home.  Let Dick Vitale continue to praise the awesomeness of the ACC just because he was buds with Jimmy V and Dean Smith.  And let Doug Gottlieb continue to pretend he knows all just because.  That being said, there is some good basketball being played out east and just because we don't have a horse in the race doesn't mean we don't follow what's going on.
I've decided to take a break from the Big Ten this week and start a run-down of the major conferences to provide a quick overview of how each team is doing and where they stand in relation to their league-mates.  We'll start with one of ESPN's favorites: the Big East.

The Sportstemps agree there's good bball
in the Big East but regardless of what ESPN
would have you believe, DePaul, USF, and Rutgers still
remain members of the conference meaning the
Big East also contains the Big Least of roundball.

1. Syracuse 16-0 (3-0) - A perfect 15-0 record to go along with a more than convincing win over Seton Hall.  This is a team whose biggest road bump to an undefeated January will be a home match with Marquette.  

Power 16: Ringing in the New Year

What better way for the blog to celebrate the new year than with the first Power 16 of the college basketball season!  It's still early and only half the conferences have played a conference game but we're starting to see some separation at the top.  Remember, the Power 16 predicts which teams would earn protective seeds if the NCAA Tournament began today. 

Marquis Teague may be the best freshman
in the country.  He's also the starting PG for
the nation's best team. 

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Kentucky	13-1 (0-0)	Kanas, UNC, Louisville
North Carolina	12-2 (0-0)	Michigan St., Wisconsin, Texas
Indiana	13-1 (1-1)	Kentucky, Ohio St., NC St.
Syracuse	14-0 (1-0)	Florida, Stanford, Seton Hall

Kentucky has been the best team this season; they own the best collection of quality wins and their only loss was suffered at IU.  I expect them to maintain their position all year.  North Carolina looks like another top tier team despite suffering a couple of losses (@UNLV, @Kentucky).  Their non-conference schedule was strong and boosts them to the #2 overall at this point. Indiana has home victories over both Kentucky and Ohio St.  They may not be able to sustain this level all year but they're pretty darn good and it will be a surprise if they lose at home this season.  Despite zero losses Syracuse sits at number four.  Going undefeated this long is impressive but it's slightly less impressive when you see they've only played one true road game, tied with Missouri for the fewest in the country.

Feb 14: Power 16

We're one week closer to March and while many teams have solidified themselves as contenders there's been some movement in the Power 16.

 Now that Evan Turner is back in the fold, Ohio St. should be 

considered a serious contender for the Final Four.

1. Kansas - Only Kansas St. has challenged the Jayhawks in conference play.  This team should cruise the rest of the way.  Chances of #1 overall seed: 80%
2. Kentucky - Tennessee played them tough at Rupp Arena last night but Kentucky is starting to silence the critics who claim there is too much youth on this team to take them seriously.  Odds of #1 seed in NCAA: 70%
3. Syracuse - Just when you thought the Orange were gaining on Kansas they lose at home to a bubble team. Ouch.  Still 24-2 is mighty impressive.  Play at Georgetown this week so the ride might get a bit bumpy.  Odds of #1 seed: 67%
4. Villanova - Sneaky win in Morgantown last Monday solidifies Villanova a notch above the next four.  If you like scoring you like Villanova basketball.  Odds of #1 seed: 50%
5. Purdue - Statement win in East Lansing shows these Boilers should be taken seriously.  A 5-1 record against the RPI top 25 makes them the most likely candidate to challenge for a #1 seed.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
6. Duke - Crushed the Terrapins yesterday.  There will be no challenger for the Duke's regular season title although they still have three road games left.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
7. West Virginia - A bad week for the Mountaineers as they lost both at home to Villanova and at Pitt in a 3 OT thriller.  A loss this week may cost them #2 seed.
8. Kansas St. - A win over Iowa St. moved the Wildcats to 7-3 in Big 12 play.  They're now at the easier part of their schedule with the only game they should have much trouble in is a road game against the Jayhawks.  If they don't slip up beforehand, KSU may have locked up a 2 seed.
9. Michigan St. - This is where the rankings get fuzzy.  Lucas is back and so is the Spartans' mojo.  Indiana appears to be the unfortunate victim of MSU's renewed focus before Ohio St. comes to town Saturday.
10. Georgetown - Wildly inconsistent.  The Hoyas play extremely well against good teams yet have losses to Old Dominion, home to S. Florida, and now at Rutgers.  Expect a tight game in their first round match-up of the NCAA tournament.
11. Ohio St. - The win at Illinois should act as a wakeup call to everyone.  Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball and Ohio St. is an elite team when he plays.  If the Buckeyes defeat Purdue this week they'll vault into the #2 seed group.
12. New Mexico - Steve Alford has this team ready for the NCAA Tournament.  The Lobos had a couple of impressive road wins this week against UNLV and Utah.
13. Wisconsin - The home loss to Illinois was a bit of a shocker.  Still, Wisconsin is 9-4 in Big Ten play and completely annihilated the Hoosiers yesterday.
14. Brigham Young - There's no shame in losing on the road to UNLV but losing there shows the Cougars aren't unstoppable.  They may be a better team than New Mexico but we'll have to wait until the end of the month to prove it.
15. Vanderbilt - A complete trouncing of Tennessee keeps the Commodores in the Power 16.  Next Saturday's home match vs. Kentucky could be the game of the weekend.
16. Gonzaga - Sweeping the top three teams in the WCC moves the Zags into the Power 16 for the first time this year.  The WCC doesn't participate in Bracket Busters so the Zags next meaningful game won't take place until their conference tournament.  For now they need to continue to win to avoid slipping in the minds of the committee.

Also considered: Butler, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV