Power 16: February 10, 2012

Though Austin Rivers' 3-pointer won the game for the Blue Devils it's still not enough 
to earn them a 1 seed. There's still time. And seriously, what was Tyler Zeller thinking?

I held off making this week's Power 16 since there were so many intriguing games in the middle of the week. It paid off.  There's a lot of shuffling going on and while the top teams are starting to secure position the 3's and 4's are not even close to being settled. Check it out to see who moved up and who moved down.

1's	Record	RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Kentucky	24-1 (11-1)	3 / 74/ 5-1
Syracuse	24-1 (11-1)	1 /12 / 6-1
Ohio St.	21-3 (8-2)	4 /41 / 6-3
Missouri	22-2 (9-2)	9 /102 / 6-1

Kentucky continues to roll and unless they lose more than two times down the stretch a 1 seed is all locked up.  Syracuse held off a feisty Georgetown squad this week to stay atop the Big East.  They're in a dogfight with Kentucky for the top overall seed.  Ohio St. is 10-2 over their last 12 games and looks like they've got the Big Ten wrapped up. Missouri earns themselves the final 1 seed by currently sitting in first place in the Big 12. Wins over Kansas and Baylor help their cause.

2011 MLB Predictions: NL East

 David Wright believes his Lord Helmet can save him from the Schwartz as well as concussions.

Now it's time for the NL East.  The Phillies seem to be the champion on paper but let's take a deeper look.

Philadelphia Phillies
Best Player: Chase Utley but we don't know how long he'll be out. After Utley it's probably Ryan Howard.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay is the obvious answer here.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Cliff Lee shocked everyone.
Biggest off-season loss: Jayson Werth was the team's third best hitter and was a good defensive outfielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. When will Chase Utley return? No one is certain if he'll be back in May or if it will be at the All-Star break. The Phillies may not need him to make the playoffs but winning the World Series will be an uphill climb without him.
2. How good is the rotation? Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt are four of the top twenty five pitchers in baseball. If no injuries beset the staff the offense won't need to be nearly as powerful as it has been in recent seasons.
3. Is Dominic Brown ready to be an impact player?  The Phillies don't need the rookie to be an all-star but with Utley hurt and Werth gone there is a void on offense.  Brown was the top hitting prospect last season but many scouts worry the team is too left-handed with him in the lineup.
Expectations: This is a World Series contender.  Anything short of reaching the Series will likely be seen as a disappointment.
Opening day lineup:
1. Victorino CF
2. Polanco 3B
3. Rollins SS
4. Howard 1B
5. Ibanez LF
6. Francisco RF
7. Ruiz C
8. Valdez 2B
SP Roy Halladay

Are the Marlins for real?

After 12 games in this young season, the Florida Marlins are 11-1 with a run differential of +32.  Both marks are best in the majors but is it just a hot streak or a sign of things to come?  Here are a few trends I have noticed:

• Rookie 3b Emilio Bonifacio started off 14-24 (.583) in his first five games but since then has gone 3 for 29 (.103) with 0 walks.
• Cameron Maybin is hitting .206/.289/.235
  
• Cody Ross has 2 walks in 45 plate appearances 
  
• John Baker is hitting .333/.421/.545

Now, Maybin is going to hit but the other three bullet points should be cause for concern.  John Baker was the main focus of Moneyball but he's not really this good.  Cody Ross has always had plate disicplate problems but this is bad even for him.  And scouts were saying even during Bonifacio's hot start that he's just an "average" player.  I love Florida's pitching but their offense will have to get more from Maybin if they are going to be playing in October.

Season Preview: Florida Marlins

2008 Record: 84-77  .522

Run differential: +3 (8^th)

2008 payroll: $21,811,500

2008 represented yet another season in which the kids in the south sun exceeded all expectations.  Finishing with a winning record despite trading away their two best known players in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis is yet another testament to GM Larry Beinfest. Having the lowest payroll in the majors is not considered a handicap to this organization.  Instead it gives them an excuse to play minor leaguers who are ready for The Show.  When these players start to get expensive they are shipped off like Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham were this past offseason.  The catch is these guys aren’t stars but instead are cheaper than the alternatives in other organizations.  Even getting something for Kevin Gregg and Mike Jacobs who were candidates to be non-tendered is impressive.

2009 appears to be much like 2008 for the Fish.  Expectations are low, payroll is even lower, but the talent is here.  The organization even locked up Hanley Ramirez, who is arguably the best player in baseball, to a long-term contract. Plans for a new stadium finally appear to be in the works also.  There is no guarantee this will increase revenue for the franchise but you can bet that ownership is banking on it.  With the pipeline of young talent showing no signs of drying up and their best player locked in for several years, it would be foolish to bet against this team having an awful season.  The continuation of smart management decisions coupled with the growth of young players, could allow this franchise be building the next mini-dynasty.  It’s just up to ownership and the fans in Miami to determine how long it lasts.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	John Baker	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 3/07
C	Ronny Paulino	$.44 M	Acquired in trade w/ SF 3/28/09
1b	Jorge Cantu	$3.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ TB 7/07
2b	Dan Uggla	$5.35M	Selected in Rule V draft '05.
3b	Emilio Bonifacio	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 11/08
SS	Hanley Ramirez	$5.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 11/05. Signed extension 5/08
LF	Jeremy Hermida	$2.25M	Drafted #11 overall 2002
CF	Cameron Maybin	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 12/07
RF	Cody Ross	$2.25M	Contract purchased from Cin 5/2006
Inf	West Helms	$1.9 M	Acquired in trade w/ Phi 4/08. Signed extension 10/08
Inf	Andy Gonzalez	$.39M	Signed as FA 1/13/09
Of	Ross Gload	$1.9 M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 4/09
UT	Alfredo Amezaga	$1.3 M	Claimed off waivers from Col 4/05
SP	Ricky Nolasco	$2.4 M	Drafted #11 overall 2002
SP	Josh Johnson	$1.4 M	Drafted 4th rd 2002
SP	Chris Volstad	$.4 M	Drafted #16 overall 2005
SP	Anibal Sanchez	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 11/05
SP	Andrew Miller	$5.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 12/07
Cl	Matt Lindstrom	$.41 M	Acquired in trade w/ NYM 11/06
SU	Leo Nunez	$.415M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 10/08
RP	Scott Proctor	$.75M	Signed as FA 1/5/08
RP	Renyel Pinto	$.404M	Acquired in trade w/ ChC 12/7/05
RP	Logan Kensing	$.66 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2003
RP	Dan Meyer	$.4 M	Claimed off waivers from Oak 11/08
RP	Hayden Penn	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bal 4/1/09

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Say hello to: Ross Gload, Emilio Bonifacio, Wes Helms, Hayden Penn, Dan Meyer, Leo Nunez, Ronny Paulino, Jose Ceda

Wave goodbye: Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Arthur Rhodes, Matt Treanor, Mark Hednrickson, Joe Nelson, Sergio Mitre

Rookies: Emilio Bonifacio, Gaby Sanchez, Cameron Maybin

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Kiko Calero

Potential breakout: Cameron Maybin

Welcome to Earth: Chris Volstad, Jorge Cantú

Likely to rebound: Hanley Ramirez (kidding), Josh Johnson, Jeremy Hermida

Strengths: There is a lot of power in this lineup

Weaknesses: Infield defense is iffy unless last season’s improvements from Ramirez and Uggla were for real

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

3b Bonifacio B  .248/.305/.344  0, 6  .231

LF Hermida L  .249/.323/.406  17, 6  .260

SS Ramirez R  .301/.400/.540  33, 35  .324

2b Uggla R  .260/.360/.514  32, 5  .299

1b Cantú R  .277/.327/.481  29, 6  .280

CF Maybin R

Rf Ross R  .260/.316/.488  22, 6  .280

C Baker L  .299/.392/.447  5, 0  .301

Prediction: 4th place NL East.