2011 MLB Predictions: AL Central

When I finish all the previews I'll add a post in which I predict each team's final record as well as individual award winners.

Chicago White Sox
Best Player: Tough one. I think I'd take Dunn though if Beckham plays like he did down the stretch last season he's the pick.
Best Pitcher: Jon Danks - not Buehrle -is the best pitcher on the team. It would be Peavy if he could make more than 12 starts.
Biggest off-season move:  Adam Dunn is the perfect hitter for Cellular One Field.
Biggest off-season loss: Many may disagree but losing Bobby Jenks hurts the bullpen's depth.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can Gordon Beckham rebound? Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 as a rookie but slipped to .252/.317/.378 last year with only 9 home runs. Can improve on his rookie season's performance  and become a superstar or will he just be an average second baseman?
2. The Bullpen.  Gone are Putz and Jenks.  Chris Sale is up to take one spot but can Jesse Crain and Will Ohman be consistent enough to keep Ozzie of their backs?
3. Third base. Brent Morel won the job in spring training but he's no superstar. If he slumps Ozzie will throw Teahen out there and we know how that went last season.
Expectations: This offense is good. Expect lots of base stealing attempts from Pierre, Rios, and possibly Beckham. Expect lots of home runs. Expect good starting pitching. I also expect a division title.
Opening day lineup:
1. Pierre LF
2. Beckham 2B
3. Dunn DH
4. Konerko 1B
5. Rios CF
6. Quentin RF
7. Pierzynski C
8. Ramirez SS
9. Morel 3B
SP Mark Buehrle

Zack Greinke traded to Milwaukee

Zack Greinke was not only the best player on the Royals in 2009 but he was the best pitcher in the American League.  Last season he regressed significantly but was still good. After telling the Royals he no longer wanted to be there, nearly every team had a chance to get him.  After about a month of speculation, a winner emerged when the Milwaukee Brewers traded four players for Greinke. 

The breakdown is after the jump.

GMs compete for Title

Yesterday two trades occurred in an apparent attempt for the respective General Managers to claim the title "Worst GM in Major League Baseball."

The first trade took place mid-afternoon. The Royals, realizing they have been playing the majority of the season without a shortstop, traded their 2008 Minor League Pitcher of the year (Daniel Cortes) and a 21 year old left-handed reliever in A ball. Now, neither of these guys looks to be much more than a situational relief pitcher in the bigs, but considering what they got in return makes this seem like a coup for Seattle.

In return, Seattle gladly gives them Yuniesky Betancourt who is not only the worst defensive shortstop in baseball but has a career OBP of .302 and a career slugging of .393. The fact that he's 27 and has continually gotten worse makes this trade stink even more. I hope Dayton Moore realizes he still needs a shortstop.

Not to be outdone, a few hours later Omar Minaya and Frank Wren agreed on a challenge trade that probably caused Frank Wren to pinch himself to make sure he wasn't dreaming. Jeff Francouer and cash go to the Mets for Ryan Church (can you believe Francoeur actually makes MORE than Church?). What makes this trade especially sweet from the Braves perspective is that not only to the Braves get an improvement but they make the Mets worse at the same time! If the deal itself isn't enough to fire Minaya, here's a quote, "One thing I really liked about Jeff Francoeur is the amount of games he plays." Wow.

Although these guys think it's an easy win for the Mets, these guys are left with their mouths open.

So who gets the crown?

Alex Gordon = bust?

Today at work my co-author and I were discussing Alex Gordon and whether or not it's time to abandon ship. I thought it was too early to do so considering he's only been in the league for two seasons but I couldn't help but think that he has been a massive disappointment. So I figured "why not write today's blog about it in order to form a conclustion instead of relying on my gut?" Well, here we go:

Drafted second overall in the 2005 draft, Alex Gordon was seen as the second coming of George Brett for the franchise. Now that he's played two seasons, the word "bust" is being used quite frequently to describe him by fans and analysts alike. Is he really a bust or just a victim of unrealistic expectations?

Coming out of Nebraska in 2005, Gordon went immediately to AA Wichita. In 486 plate appearances Gordon hit .325/.427/.588 showing good plate discipline, power, and proving that he was adequate enough defensively to man the hot corner in the bigs. Needless to say his performance did little to temper expectations but instead raised them by showing the organization that he was probably MLB ready from the get-go.

As a rookie in 2007, Gordon struggled. Badly. He hit .247/.314/.411 and struck out three times as much he walked. The one bright spot was his baserunning where he went 14-18 on SBs. Even his defense slipped. The organization wasn't worried though and even left him on the major league roster for the whole season, confident that he'd right himself.

This past season Gordon improved but not as much as everyone thought he would. His struggles were compounded by his awful defense at third. Towards the end of the season there were rumblings coming out of the front office that he would have to be moved to 1b sooner than later adding to the organizational logjam at 1b/dh.

Last season wasn't a total waste as Gordon did improve in several areas. Gordon's raised his percentages across the board to .260/.351/.432. Additionally he was 9-11 on SBs and his K:BB ratio not only went down to 2:1 but his walk rate (PA's/BB's) stood at 11.6%. all respectable numbers. His OPS+* might tell the best story. After posting an 87 as a rookie, Gordon ended last season with a 110 mark. Where 100 is average (or replacment level), this shows us that Gordon was actually above average with the bat. Not All-Star caliber but a massive improvement from his first season. His real team value drops when taking his bad defense into consideration, probably leaving him as a league average player (this does not take positional value into effect).

*OPS+ takes park effects into consideration

So what's he going to be? Baseball-prospectus says Gordon's best comparables are Joey Foy (who?), Howard Johnson, and Tim Wallach. However, when discussing Alex Gordon with Ryan, I immediately drew the comparison to Curtis Granderson.

Curtis Granderson has played about 3.5 seasons and has steadily improved to the point where he is considered a borderline superstar. Here's his %'s his first 3 seasons:

2005: .272/.314/.494
2006: .260/.335/.438
2007: .302/.361/.552

Notice the breakout in 2007? If you look at the OBP and SLG you can see we have a similar player to Gordon. Sure the skill set is slightly different but the results are compelling. Granderson and Gordon also have one other thing holding them back--their inability to hit left-handed pitching.

Here's Gordon's and Granderson's career splits:
Gordon vs RHP: .264/.349/.445 and vs LHP: .226/.291/.365
Granderson vs RHP: .297/.369/.524 and vs LHP: .221/.280/.387

These numbers aren't doing Gordon any favors here. I guess what I'm saying is, with Gordon I see a similarity to Granderson. Granderson exploded in year 3, showing improved ability to make contact resulting in much more power. Gordon made small steps last year which make me a optimistic that he is also ready for a similar growth in his game.

Two seasons is too soon to write off a player but it's not too soon to get a glimpse of what that player is most likely to become. With Gordon he could go either way. If he improves the way Granderson did his offense will mask his defensive deficiencies and he will be a perennial All-Star. If his offense doesn't improve he will be a mediocre hitting, poor fielding 3b with nowhere to go; poor fielding third basemen don't become utility players, they move to 1b. But in an organization that has lots of players at 1b, none of whom Gordon has proved he's substantially better than, it appears the time has come for Gordon to put up or move on.

Royals go Cuckoo for Coco Crisp

Earlier this week the Red Sox traded Coco Crisp to the Royals for RP Ramon Ramirez.  Kansas City, who had one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, has now traded two relievers this offseason.  Crisp was rumored to have been on the block all through last season but apparently was never traded because the Red Sox felt that they  needed safeguard in case Jacoby Ellsbury faltered and weren't being offered equal value for 2+ years of Crisp.  Now that he was finally moved let's see what each team is getting in the deal.

Boston

Ramirez is a right-handed relief pitcher who posted a 2.64 ERA in 71.1 IP last season.  Ramirez struck out 70 batters and walked 31.  Now these numbers look like Ramirez should be a closer candidate, but let's take a closer look to see if this still holds true.

Ramirez vs RHP .153/.244/.212 and vs LHP .300/.370/.375

This is an extreme split which shows us that last year's performance is not really sustainable unless used as  a ROOGY (righty one out guy).  His failure to neutralize lefties relegates him to a career as a middle reliever.

Kansas City

It turns out Coco Crisp is not the star many thought he would be while playing in Cleveland. What Crisp has developed into is someone who is likely to put up an OBP in the .340s with very good defense.  Two years ago he led the league in +/- whereas last year he was +3 (although he did battle leg injuries all season).  His true ability probably lies somewhere in between.   Either way he automatically becomes the best defensive player on the Royals and improves team OBP.  

Recap: Boston will maximize their team value if the acquisition of Ramirez does not push Justin Masterson to the rotation.  Leaving Masterson in the pen--who absolutely has the ability to pitch multiple innings-- will further enable the BoSox to use Ramirez correctly due to his extreme platoon split.  This trade also proves that Ellsbury is the man in center.  For a team like Boston these are good gambles to take.  A fourth outfielder is easy enough to find and solidifying their bullpen is something that could make the difference in an always tough AL East.

For Kansas City the need for everyday players was urgent.  Mark Teahen and Jose Guillen were not getting it done in the outfield corners.  Now one of them is on the trade block (I'm guessing for a relief pitcher) with DeJesus moving from center to take their spot.   Fans need to realize that Crisp is not a savior and will not make this team a contender by himself.  What he does do is improve the team in some of the smaller areas that needed definite improvement: defense, baserunning, and getting on base.

In each of his years as GM,  Dayton Moore has been able to build solid bullpens.  By making this trade he is admitting that he needs help in finding the every day guys.  

Realizing that dominant bullpens are luxuries contenders should enjoy, this is a trade the Royals needed to make.  

   

Verdict: Assuming Crisp's option for 2010 is picked up, I think the Royals win this trade.