2012 MLB Preview: AL West

Since Opening Day is tomorrow I figured I should hurry up and write my preview of the American League West.  This is a top-heavy division.  Anaheim blew their entire wad of cash on the best available free agents while Texas should remain strong thanks to their core of young players.  Seattle is undergoing a youth movement and has several young players who they hope will be a part of their lineup for years to come.  And then there's Oakland, a team who traded away their top players to reload their farm system in hopes they can compete in three years. For some it's time to win now, for others it's in the future.  This division has a lot of both.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2011 Record: 86-76

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $159.1 million
Highest Paid Player: Vernon Wells - $21 million
Best Player: Albert Pujols might be the best player in baseball.
Best Pitcher: The Angels excellent outfield defense makes Weaver really tough to beat.  Give this team an average outfield and it's Dan Haren. Either way this is a really good staff.
Say Hello To: Albert Pujols 1B, CJ Wilson SP, Chris Iannetta C, Brad Mills RP, Jason Isringhausen RP, Juan Rincon RP, LaTroy Hawkins RP, Eric Hurley RP, Ryan Langerhans OF, Jorge Cantu 1B
Wave Goodbye: Russell Branyan 4C (NYY), Fernando Rodney RP (TB), Joel Pineiro RP (Phi), Tyler Chatwood RP (Col), Jeff Mathis C (Tor),
Biggest Questions:
1. Are the Angels the division favorites? They've got the best rotation, the best player, and the best outfield defense, and maybe the best depth but they're not necessarily the best team.  Expect a dogfight with Texas all summer.

2. When will we see Mike Trout?  Mike Trout is to the Angels what Bryce Harper is to the Nationals.  Trout is an electric player who also happens to be an excellent defensive outfielder.  After Vernon Wells' historically bad 2010, if Trout gets off to a hot start a change may be forced to happen.

3. Is the Pujols contract a mistake?  Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do to get your man.  I think Pujols will be worth it the first three years or so but ten years is a long time and these kind of marriages don't always end well.

Expectations: This team forked over more money than any other last season and now sports the third highest payroll in the A.L. With that kind of spending frenzy come playoff expectations.  Winning the World Series should be the goal and this team has the talent to do it.

Perhaps the most underrated pitcher in baseball, Dan Haren
will just keep on keepin' on as this team's true staff ace.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Aybar SS

2. Kendrick 2B

3. Pujols 1B

4. Hunter RF
5. Morales DH

6. Wells LF

7. Callapso 3B

8. Iannetta C
9. Bourjos CF

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Weaver
2. Haren
3. Wilson
4. Santana
5. Williams

Cl: Walden

2011 MLB Predictions: AL West

Hamilton looks up after attempting to set the record for highest infield pop-fly.

Texas Rangers
Best Player: Josh Hamilton was last year's MVP.  I think it's safe to say he's the best player on the team.
Best Pitcher: Neftali Feliz. Another team whose best pitcher is a reliever. They toyed with making him a starter in spring training but decided not to fix what's not broken.
Biggest off-season move:  Tired of Michael Young's "defense" in the infield, the Rangers signed Adrian Beltre and his gold glove to man the hot corner.  Young is now the team's utility player and DH.
Biggest off-season loss: When Cliff Lee bolted for Philly, the Rangers lost their only stud starter.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can the rotation hold up well enough for the Rangers to repeat as division champs?  As I stated earlier, Cliff Lee was a big game pitcher for this team.  They hope CJ Wilson wasn't a flash in the pan and that Derek Holland and Scott Feldman can continue to improve.
2. Will Josh Hamilton stay healthy enough to play a full season?  We already know the answer to this question is no as Hamilton broke his arm this week.  Hamilton's only managed to play 135 games one time in his career.
3. Will Michael Young be happy in his new role? I doubt he is but will he keep his mouth shut and produce enough to be around when Texas plays in October? He already voiced his displeasure in the off-season about being replaced but the guy needs to look in the mirror and see he's not the player he was even three seasons ago.
Expectations: Texas' offense should finish in the top three in runs scored in the American League. The bullpen will be decent enough as long as Feliz is used as needed, but the major question is with the starters. I imagine they'll do just fine as Texas makes it back to the playoffs and possibly the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Kinsler 2B
2. Andrus SS
3. Hamilton LF
4. Beltre 3B
5. Young DH
6. Cruz RF
7. Napoli 1B
8. Torrealba C
9. Borbon CF
SP CJ Wilson

2010 Seattle Mariners team preview

2009 Record: 85-77   .525

Run Differential: -52

When Seattle looked to fill it's GM vacancy after the 2008 season they went outside the box.  What followed was a flurry of moves as the roster was completely reshaped in Jack Zduriencik image.  Jack Z may be even more statistically advanced than A's GM Billy Beane and it showed as he went after the best defensive players at each position.  Trading for outfielder Franklin Gutierrez and signing Endy Chavez were the big moves made before the season.  Gutierrez had a season that Willie Mays would be proud of as he saved 25 runs more than the average center fielder.  During the season Jack Wilson, Ryan Langerhans, and Jack Hannahan were all acquired as the team cornered the market on elite defensive talent.  The best news, however, was from the performance of Felix Hernandez.  King Felix struck out 217 batters in 238 innings and posted a 2.49 ERA which earned him a second place finish in the Cy Young voting.  Ichiro got 200 hits again and Russell Branyan had a career year. Unfortunately the rest of the offense tanked and prevented this team from ever being taken seriously as a playoff contender.

The roster continued to take shape over the winter but the same questions remain.

Another blockbuster!

When Roy Halladay is involved in a trade you expect a lot of players to be moving. But would you expect one of those to be Cliff Lee? Me neither. Let's break it down.

Philadelphia receives: Roy Halladay SP, Phillippe Aumont RHP, Tyson Gilles, Juan Ramirez RHP

Yes, the Phillies get Halladay (and his 3 year extension + club option for a 4th) but was it worth trading the only real prospects they had? Only time will tell. Halladay is a top five pitcher in baseball and moving to the National League should provide a nice bump to his stats. But trading Lee for him doesn't improve the team much as you might think. This trade was most likely initiated due to Lee's unwillingness for a discount as opposed to Halladay who just wants to play for a winner. If he stays healthy it's likely his performance boost will be enough to cause Halladay's name to be mentioned as a possible electee to Cooperstown.

Aumont is a prospect with a decent arm but really, I don't see him turning into much more than a #3 starter. It's also possible he ends up in the bullpen. The only thing I know about Gilles is that he's perhaps the fastest player in the minors. Another Michael Bourn perhaps? Juan Ramirez is another guy who has tons of "stuff" but no idea how to use it. He could end up anywhere from a dominant reliever to a guy who never makes it.

Seattle receives: Cliff Lee LHP

Cliff Lee, as we all know, is a former Cy Young Award winner who made the transition to the Junior League with no problems. He was also the best pitcher in October last season. How Seattle found a way to finagle themselves into this deal is beyond me, but they will love seeing Lee take the ball every fifth day right behind Felix. This team just got a lot better.

Toronto receives: Kyle Drabek SP, Travis d'Arnaud C, Michael Taylor OF

Toronto is getting some really nice prospects here but where's the major leaguer? If Toronto could've pulled in someone like Brandon Morrow or even Michael Saunders this would be a huge get. Unfortunately neither was included leaving the Jays to hope that these three prospects hit their projected ceilings.

I love Kyle Drabek as a starter and agreed with the Phillies last year when they refused to include him in any deal. I know my buddy Keith Law feels there's nothing special about him (he'll probably say as much in his trade analysis) but I humbly disagree. Michael Taylor is a monster of a prospect who would make their outfield sickening except for the fact they turned around and traded him to the A's (more on that below). Travis d'Arnaud is a solid catching prospect and could end up performing like a young Jason Kendall (without the speed) but I think that's a little optimistic. I'm wondering if including him allowed Philadelphia to gain some leverage in this trade considering Toronto didn't have a single catcher on their 40-man roster Sunday.

Later, Toronto traded Michael Taylor to the A's for 3b prospect Brett Wallace. I'm not sure I really understand this but let me take a gander. Brett Wallace is not a good defensive player and it's possible he won't be able to play the hot corner for long. He appears to have the ability to hit for high average but I'm not sure he'll ever be much of a power hitter. I think this is what motivated the A's to deal him. Wallace is ready for an extended look in spring training and I won't be surprised to see him start the year with Toronto in 2010.

For Oakland, Michael Taylor immediately becomes the best prospect in the system. The A's have several prospects who can hit but only one who hits for power. Oakland tends to be moderately difficult on power hitters and I don't know how well Taylor's power will translate to Oakland's home park, but perhaps management felt it translated better than Wallace's skills since Oakland is known for suppressing batting average.

Verdict:

Philadelphia gets a win for improving their team (although slightly) this season. I'm still on the fence on whether or not they will be improved in 2014 because of it.

Seattle, tell your fans to get excited. With the league's best defense and now an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, the Mariners have to be considered legitimate post season contenders. If they are able to shore up the bullpen then this team could be scary. Big win here.

Toronto gets some prospects I love but are missing the one major league player that allows me to say they get a win out of this deal. Instead they likely walk away getting a #2 starter whose had some history with injuries, a 3b who will hit for average, and a catching prospect who will be a solid but not spectacular starter.

GMs compete for Title

Yesterday two trades occurred in an apparent attempt for the respective General Managers to claim the title "Worst GM in Major League Baseball."

The first trade took place mid-afternoon. The Royals, realizing they have been playing the majority of the season without a shortstop, traded their 2008 Minor League Pitcher of the year (Daniel Cortes) and a 21 year old left-handed reliever in A ball. Now, neither of these guys looks to be much more than a situational relief pitcher in the bigs, but considering what they got in return makes this seem like a coup for Seattle.

In return, Seattle gladly gives them Yuniesky Betancourt who is not only the worst defensive shortstop in baseball but has a career OBP of .302 and a career slugging of .393. The fact that he's 27 and has continually gotten worse makes this trade stink even more. I hope Dayton Moore realizes he still needs a shortstop.

Not to be outdone, a few hours later Omar Minaya and Frank Wren agreed on a challenge trade that probably caused Frank Wren to pinch himself to make sure he wasn't dreaming. Jeff Francouer and cash go to the Mets for Ryan Church (can you believe Francoeur actually makes MORE than Church?). What makes this trade especially sweet from the Braves perspective is that not only to the Braves get an improvement but they make the Mets worse at the same time! If the deal itself isn't enough to fire Minaya, here's a quote, "One thing I really liked about Jeff Francoeur is the amount of games he plays." Wow.

Although these guys think it's an easy win for the Mets, these guys are left with their mouths open.

So who gets the crown?

Are the Marlins for real?

After 12 games in this young season, the Florida Marlins are 11-1 with a run differential of +32.  Both marks are best in the majors but is it just a hot streak or a sign of things to come?  Here are a few trends I have noticed:

• Rookie 3b Emilio Bonifacio started off 14-24 (.583) in his first five games but since then has gone 3 for 29 (.103) with 0 walks.
• Cameron Maybin is hitting .206/.289/.235
  
• Cody Ross has 2 walks in 45 plate appearances 
  
• John Baker is hitting .333/.421/.545

Now, Maybin is going to hit but the other three bullet points should be cause for concern.  John Baker was the main focus of Moneyball but he's not really this good.  Cody Ross has always had plate disicplate problems but this is bad even for him.  And scouts were saying even during Bonifacio's hot start that he's just an "average" player.  I love Florida's pitching but their offense will have to get more from Maybin if they are going to be playing in October.

Blockbuster sends 12 packing

There was a pretty big trade last night.  As a Braves fan I'm sick and as a Cleveland supporter and a little befuddled.  Here's a quick rundown of each team's transaction starting with the middleman:

Cleveland sends OF Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle for RP Joe Smith and 2b Luis Valbuena 

Gutierrez represents a nice little lefty masher while playing good defense in both corners and center.  This past season was his first real chance to play everyday and he did not live up to expectations.  Cleveland already had Ben Francisco and Shin -Soo Choo so one had to move. I think Cleveland chose the right guy.  

Valbuena is a nice little gamble for 2b.  He gets on base at a fair clip and has some nice doubles power.  He's got the body of Carlos Baerga though, so if he doesn't stay in shape he might lose nearly all his value.

Joe Smith is a nifty sidearming righty that fits in well in a pen already stocked with goodies. Cleveland now has a situational righty to slide in late innings enabling Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt to keep their multi-inning roles.  Once Kerry Wood finalizes his deal this bullpen will be set.  It will also be the best in baseball.

Seattle traded RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, and OF Jeremy Reed to NY Mets and 2b Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for OF Endy Chavez, RHP Aaron Heilman, RHP prospect Maikel Cleto, 1b prospect Mike Carp, LHP Jason Vargas, OF Ezequiel Carrera, and OF Franklin Gutierrez.

The Mariners get a whopping seven players here.  I'll sort through as fast as I can.

Losing Putz means relatively little to a team that is not in contention.  Green was a nice reliever that had some value but he can be replaced also.

For Seattle Francisco is the guy that made this deal work.  He'll turn 26 in spring so his potential is just now starting to show.  Plays very good defense and is a superb baserunner.  There is some power potential but it seems likely he'll stay a doubles hitter accompanied by a lot of triples as long as his speed holds up.  It remains to be seen if he plays center or left but I have a feeling Seattle puts him in center to see if he can handle it (which he will).  As a fantasy player my eye is on him.

Endy Chavez should be used as a fourth outfielder since his hitting skills are weak at best.  He's another excellent defender who's probably best known for his catch in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS than anything else.

Aaron Heilman is a disgruntled reliever who told the Mets to start him or trade him.  Well, Aaron, you got your wish.  If used as a starter it will be a disaster since he only has two decent pitches and a pretty significant platoon split. Should ably fill the vacancy left by Sean Green.

Vargas is a bit of an enigma to me.  He destroyed the lower minors and showed loads of potential in AA, but once he hit AAA the wheels came off.  Maybe he can't hack it as a starter.  Some work with the pitching coaches should turn him into a valuable reliever.

Ezekiel Carrera is all wheels, Mike Carp looks like a lefty hitting Ryan Garko, and Maikel Cleto is only 19 so there's still time for him to turn into a dominating closer.  

NY Mets traded OF Endy Chavez, OF Ezequiel Carrera, RP Aaron Heilman, RP Maikel Cleto, LHP Jason Vargas, 1b Mike Carp, and to Seattle and RP Joe Smith to Cleveland for RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, and OF Jeremy Reed.

JJ Putz gives the Mets a dominating reliever (when healthy) that's actually better than KRod.  He has averaged more than 11 strikeouts per 9 innings over the last three seasons and, if memory serves me correctly, saved 35 consecutive games in 2007.  

Sean Green is a sinkerballing reliever whose biggest concern is that Luis Castillo remembers how to play defense.  Green has solid control and to use the ever popular phrase "a move to the National League can only help."

Jeremy Reed takes Endy Chavez's place as 4th outfielder/late inning defensive replacement.  This guy was a hot prospect but never developed power or mastered the strike zone.

Verdict:  Surprisingly, I really like what this deal does for the Indians.  The AL Central is a division completely up for grabs this season and little moves like this one might be difference makers.  Seattle gets to restock the the upper levels of their minor league system and gets to embark on a risk-free experiment known as Franklin Gutierrez.  But really, let's not fool ourselves.  The team with the biggest improvement from this trade is the Mets.  Reed and Green essentially replace two guys they were traded for (and are younger) while Putz improves them by 2-3 wins.  Maybe as much as 5 if you look at the guys he replaced.  As a Braves fan I just threw up a little.