Breaking down the Royals-Rays trade

My friend and former blog contributor Taylor asked me to give my take on the trade. I thought it'd make a pretty nice blog post too so I've pasted what I said.

Ok, here's the deal:

Royals get James Shields (2 yrs $21 million) and Wade Davis (4 yrs, still pre-arbitration) plus a player to be named/cash.

Rays get: #1 prospect Wil Myers, middling prospect SP Mike Montgomery, SP prospect Jake Odirizzi, and 3B Patrick Leonard.

Let's start with the Rays. 

• Wil Myers should immediately start in RF for them. He is the #1 hitting prospect in baseball and even if he doesn't hit for a high average, he has good power and will be a very good player.  
• Jake Odorizzi was probably the first or second best pitching prospect for the Royals. They must not have much faith in him contributing right away or else he would not have been included in this deal.  Tampa probably gives him a shot to win the #5 starter spot in spring training with becoming a #3 starter being his eventual ceiling.
• Mike Montgomery was regarded as the Royals top pitching prospect two seasons ago but since then he's been pretty mediocre or hurt.  He's your classic throw in to a big trade like this where the acquiring team hopes a new coaching staff can help him out of his funk. Boom or bust here.
• Leonard could turn out to be a real steal. He's got a ton of power but right now has trouble making consistent contact.  However, he's only in low A ball and you can't really predict how he'll turn out. He's still too far away.
• Essentially Tampa knew they needed hitting help and had excess pitching so calling up the Royals for Myers is a move that makes too much sense.

Now for the Royals:

• James Shields is 31 years old and is an above average pitcher. He is not an ace. He can win 15+ games for  you and pitch 200+ innings. But remember, Tampa is a pitcher's park and the Rays had the best defense in the majors last year. Those definitely helped his numbers.  However, whose spot does he take in the rotation? Bruce Chen? He's a significant upgrade over what they had but he'll only be around for two years.
• Wade Davis is a guy who the Rays moved to the pen because he was really struggling as a starter. Apparently last year he ironed some things out and many people believe he deserves another shot as a starter. As a reliever he's very good and could work anywhere from long relief to closer.  As a starter he's probably a #4 guy at best - which isn't bad! #4 Starters get $8-12 million dollar contracts these days.
• This trade makes me think the Royals were really frustrated with their inability to trade or sign a front line starter this off-season.  Giving up Wil Myers isn't inherently bad; it's just that they gave up a lot with him for someone who is not an ace.  Now Jeff Francoeur is locked in as the starting RF for another season when it's possible just promoting Myers and cutting ties with Frenchy (the worst position player in the AL last season) would have yielded the same improvement as trading for a new starter.  That's the gut punch.
• The silver lining in all of this is that Wil Myers is not a slam dunk. No prospect is.  All the hype around him is speculative but I'm convinced he's already better than Jeff Francoeur. And with the AL Central a toss up every year the Royals struck while the iron is hot so they can actually try to win now for once.

2012 MLB Preview: AL Central

After emerging as the "mystery team" in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, the Detroit Tigers now have their sights set on more than just repeating as division champs.  The core of their team already included one of the best positional players in Miguel Cabrera and last year's American League MVP Justin Verlander.  With Prince on board the team hopes they'll be contenders for the next several years. The rest of the division will be fighting for seconds as all of them have serious concerns.  Kansas City is a team on the rise but their young rotation isn't ready to lead them.  Chicago says it's rebuilding but is stuck with some albatross contracts that prevent them from going all-in at anything.  Cleveland is probably one pitcher short of being taken seriously making their performance in the first two months critical for their playoff chances. Minnesota has a little bit of everything from injury concerns to aging players that the team cannot or will not move.  If you like high scoring games with little regard for the team's overall record then this is the division for you.

Chicago White Sox

2011 Record: 79-83

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $98 million
Highest Paid Player: Jake Peavy - $17 million
Best Player: Paul Konerko just keeps on ticking.  He's second all time in franchise history in HR, RBI,  and will be second in total bases by May.
Best Pitcher: John Danks had a bit of a down year in 2011 but some of that may be attributed to injury, Ozzie Guillen, and bad luck.  His peripherals remained strong and he's an excellent bounce back candidate in 2012.
Say Hello To: Simon Castro RP, Delwyn Young UT, Dan Johnson 1B, Kosuke Fukudome OF
Wave Goodbye: Mark Buehrle SP (Mia), Juan Pierre OF (Phi), Omar Vizquel INF (Tor), Sergio Santos CL (Tor), Tony Pena RP (Bos), Jason Frasor RP (Tor), Carlos Quentin OF (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is Adam Dunn done?  Dunn seemed like the perfect fit for the Cell since it's a great home run park, he's a home run hitter, and he can DH. Instead he had one of the worst seasons of all time and despite walking 75 times he managed only 11 home runs and a putrid .159 batting average.  He's looked good in spring training making me optimistic there's still some left but it's clear the Sox aren't getting what they paid for.

2. Who's the next guy to go?  Sox management traded a boatload of players and even manager Ozzie Guillen in the offseason.  Expecting them to continue to dismantle in an effort to rebuild the worst minor league system in baseball would be wise.  John Danks has been rumored to be available but the price remains too high as of now.  Danks, Floyd, and even Peavy if he's pitching well could be moved this summer.

3. How bad is the farm system?  It's really bad.  Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 100 prospects in the minor leagues and the Sox had zero on the list.  On the Up and In podcast, Kevin Goldstein says it's the worst he's ever seen and when he asked other scouts to name a top prospect none came to mind. It's bad but at least it can't get worse. 

Expectations: Realistically this team could finish anywhere from second to fifth.  If Dunn and Rios rebound then this offense can be pretty good.  The bullpen lacks depth and so does the rotation.  While Northsiders will be crying about how bad the Cubs are, at least Sox fans have the potential to be entertained by exciting - albeit not necessarily good - baseball.

Beckham is a great defensive player but
his offense is still lacking.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. De Aza CF

2. Rios RF

3. Ramirez SS

4. Konerko 1B
5. Dunn DH

6. Fukudome LF

7. Pierzynski C

8. Morel 3B
9. Beckham 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Danks
2. Peavy
3. Floyd
4. Sale
5. Humber

CL: Thornton

2011 MLB Predictions: AL Central

When I finish all the previews I'll add a post in which I predict each team's final record as well as individual award winners.

Chicago White Sox
Best Player: Tough one. I think I'd take Dunn though if Beckham plays like he did down the stretch last season he's the pick.
Best Pitcher: Jon Danks - not Buehrle -is the best pitcher on the team. It would be Peavy if he could make more than 12 starts.
Biggest off-season move:  Adam Dunn is the perfect hitter for Cellular One Field.
Biggest off-season loss: Many may disagree but losing Bobby Jenks hurts the bullpen's depth.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can Gordon Beckham rebound? Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 as a rookie but slipped to .252/.317/.378 last year with only 9 home runs. Can improve on his rookie season's performance  and become a superstar or will he just be an average second baseman?
2. The Bullpen.  Gone are Putz and Jenks.  Chris Sale is up to take one spot but can Jesse Crain and Will Ohman be consistent enough to keep Ozzie of their backs?
3. Third base. Brent Morel won the job in spring training but he's no superstar. If he slumps Ozzie will throw Teahen out there and we know how that went last season.
Expectations: This offense is good. Expect lots of base stealing attempts from Pierre, Rios, and possibly Beckham. Expect lots of home runs. Expect good starting pitching. I also expect a division title.
Opening day lineup:
1. Pierre LF
2. Beckham 2B
3. Dunn DH
4. Konerko 1B
5. Rios CF
6. Quentin RF
7. Pierzynski C
8. Ramirez SS
9. Morel 3B
SP Mark Buehrle

Zack Greinke traded to Milwaukee

Zack Greinke was not only the best player on the Royals in 2009 but he was the best pitcher in the American League.  Last season he regressed significantly but was still good. After telling the Royals he no longer wanted to be there, nearly every team had a chance to get him.  After about a month of speculation, a winner emerged when the Milwaukee Brewers traded four players for Greinke. 

The breakdown is after the jump.

2010 Kansas City Royals team preview

  2009 Record: 65-97   .401

Run differential: -156

Spring training of 2009 was filled with optimism for Kansas City fans, as it appeared the AL Central was moving backwards which would allow the Royals to catch up.  Expected improvements from young players and GM Dayton Moore’s penchant for building a bullpen seemed to back up this theory. Unfortunately the Royals were downright awful and narrowly avoided 100 losses.  In the winter Moore traded one of his most effective relievers in 2008 for likely non-tender Mike Jacobs and his career .318 OBP.  Not only did Jacobs fail to hit, but his defense at first base was so bad Billy Butler became the full time starter while Jacobs DH’d .  Compounding this trade was the fact that the acquisition of Jacobs blocked one of the better prospects in the system, Kila Ka’ahue.  If this wasn’t bad enough, Moore traded for the worst starting infielders in the majors in August (SS Yuniesky Betancourt) and allowed Trey Hillman to find regular at- bats for Willie Bloomquist and his .655 OPS. Fan outrage called Moore out for his ineptitude leading to a tirade about trusting the process that may never die.  Injuries to Alex Gordon, Mike Aviles, and Coco Crisp also played a part in driving this team to the cellar.

2010 seems to arrive with tempered expectations. 

GMs compete for Title

Yesterday two trades occurred in an apparent attempt for the respective General Managers to claim the title "Worst GM in Major League Baseball."

The first trade took place mid-afternoon. The Royals, realizing they have been playing the majority of the season without a shortstop, traded their 2008 Minor League Pitcher of the year (Daniel Cortes) and a 21 year old left-handed reliever in A ball. Now, neither of these guys looks to be much more than a situational relief pitcher in the bigs, but considering what they got in return makes this seem like a coup for Seattle.

In return, Seattle gladly gives them Yuniesky Betancourt who is not only the worst defensive shortstop in baseball but has a career OBP of .302 and a career slugging of .393. The fact that he's 27 and has continually gotten worse makes this trade stink even more. I hope Dayton Moore realizes he still needs a shortstop.

Not to be outdone, a few hours later Omar Minaya and Frank Wren agreed on a challenge trade that probably caused Frank Wren to pinch himself to make sure he wasn't dreaming. Jeff Francouer and cash go to the Mets for Ryan Church (can you believe Francoeur actually makes MORE than Church?). What makes this trade especially sweet from the Braves perspective is that not only to the Braves get an improvement but they make the Mets worse at the same time! If the deal itself isn't enough to fire Minaya, here's a quote, "One thing I really liked about Jeff Francoeur is the amount of games he plays." Wow.

Although these guys think it's an easy win for the Mets, these guys are left with their mouths open.

So who gets the crown?

Alex Gordon = bust?

Today at work my co-author and I were discussing Alex Gordon and whether or not it's time to abandon ship. I thought it was too early to do so considering he's only been in the league for two seasons but I couldn't help but think that he has been a massive disappointment. So I figured "why not write today's blog about it in order to form a conclustion instead of relying on my gut?" Well, here we go:

Drafted second overall in the 2005 draft, Alex Gordon was seen as the second coming of George Brett for the franchise. Now that he's played two seasons, the word "bust" is being used quite frequently to describe him by fans and analysts alike. Is he really a bust or just a victim of unrealistic expectations?

Coming out of Nebraska in 2005, Gordon went immediately to AA Wichita. In 486 plate appearances Gordon hit .325/.427/.588 showing good plate discipline, power, and proving that he was adequate enough defensively to man the hot corner in the bigs. Needless to say his performance did little to temper expectations but instead raised them by showing the organization that he was probably MLB ready from the get-go.

As a rookie in 2007, Gordon struggled. Badly. He hit .247/.314/.411 and struck out three times as much he walked. The one bright spot was his baserunning where he went 14-18 on SBs. Even his defense slipped. The organization wasn't worried though and even left him on the major league roster for the whole season, confident that he'd right himself.

This past season Gordon improved but not as much as everyone thought he would. His struggles were compounded by his awful defense at third. Towards the end of the season there were rumblings coming out of the front office that he would have to be moved to 1b sooner than later adding to the organizational logjam at 1b/dh.

Last season wasn't a total waste as Gordon did improve in several areas. Gordon's raised his percentages across the board to .260/.351/.432. Additionally he was 9-11 on SBs and his K:BB ratio not only went down to 2:1 but his walk rate (PA's/BB's) stood at 11.6%. all respectable numbers. His OPS+* might tell the best story. After posting an 87 as a rookie, Gordon ended last season with a 110 mark. Where 100 is average (or replacment level), this shows us that Gordon was actually above average with the bat. Not All-Star caliber but a massive improvement from his first season. His real team value drops when taking his bad defense into consideration, probably leaving him as a league average player (this does not take positional value into effect).

*OPS+ takes park effects into consideration

So what's he going to be? Baseball-prospectus says Gordon's best comparables are Joey Foy (who?), Howard Johnson, and Tim Wallach. However, when discussing Alex Gordon with Ryan, I immediately drew the comparison to Curtis Granderson.

Curtis Granderson has played about 3.5 seasons and has steadily improved to the point where he is considered a borderline superstar. Here's his %'s his first 3 seasons:

2005: .272/.314/.494
2006: .260/.335/.438
2007: .302/.361/.552

Notice the breakout in 2007? If you look at the OBP and SLG you can see we have a similar player to Gordon. Sure the skill set is slightly different but the results are compelling. Granderson and Gordon also have one other thing holding them back--their inability to hit left-handed pitching.

Here's Gordon's and Granderson's career splits:
Gordon vs RHP: .264/.349/.445 and vs LHP: .226/.291/.365
Granderson vs RHP: .297/.369/.524 and vs LHP: .221/.280/.387

These numbers aren't doing Gordon any favors here. I guess what I'm saying is, with Gordon I see a similarity to Granderson. Granderson exploded in year 3, showing improved ability to make contact resulting in much more power. Gordon made small steps last year which make me a optimistic that he is also ready for a similar growth in his game.

Two seasons is too soon to write off a player but it's not too soon to get a glimpse of what that player is most likely to become. With Gordon he could go either way. If he improves the way Granderson did his offense will mask his defensive deficiencies and he will be a perennial All-Star. If his offense doesn't improve he will be a mediocre hitting, poor fielding 3b with nowhere to go; poor fielding third basemen don't become utility players, they move to 1b. But in an organization that has lots of players at 1b, none of whom Gordon has proved he's substantially better than, it appears the time has come for Gordon to put up or move on.

Royals go Cuckoo for Coco Crisp

Earlier this week the Red Sox traded Coco Crisp to the Royals for RP Ramon Ramirez.  Kansas City, who had one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, has now traded two relievers this offseason.  Crisp was rumored to have been on the block all through last season but apparently was never traded because the Red Sox felt that they  needed safeguard in case Jacoby Ellsbury faltered and weren't being offered equal value for 2+ years of Crisp.  Now that he was finally moved let's see what each team is getting in the deal.

Boston

Ramirez is a right-handed relief pitcher who posted a 2.64 ERA in 71.1 IP last season.  Ramirez struck out 70 batters and walked 31.  Now these numbers look like Ramirez should be a closer candidate, but let's take a closer look to see if this still holds true.

Ramirez vs RHP .153/.244/.212 and vs LHP .300/.370/.375

This is an extreme split which shows us that last year's performance is not really sustainable unless used as  a ROOGY (righty one out guy).  His failure to neutralize lefties relegates him to a career as a middle reliever.

Kansas City

It turns out Coco Crisp is not the star many thought he would be while playing in Cleveland. What Crisp has developed into is someone who is likely to put up an OBP in the .340s with very good defense.  Two years ago he led the league in +/- whereas last year he was +3 (although he did battle leg injuries all season).  His true ability probably lies somewhere in between.   Either way he automatically becomes the best defensive player on the Royals and improves team OBP.  

Recap: Boston will maximize their team value if the acquisition of Ramirez does not push Justin Masterson to the rotation.  Leaving Masterson in the pen--who absolutely has the ability to pitch multiple innings-- will further enable the BoSox to use Ramirez correctly due to his extreme platoon split.  This trade also proves that Ellsbury is the man in center.  For a team like Boston these are good gambles to take.  A fourth outfielder is easy enough to find and solidifying their bullpen is something that could make the difference in an always tough AL East.

For Kansas City the need for everyday players was urgent.  Mark Teahen and Jose Guillen were not getting it done in the outfield corners.  Now one of them is on the trade block (I'm guessing for a relief pitcher) with DeJesus moving from center to take their spot.   Fans need to realize that Crisp is not a savior and will not make this team a contender by himself.  What he does do is improve the team in some of the smaller areas that needed definite improvement: defense, baserunning, and getting on base.

In each of his years as GM,  Dayton Moore has been able to build solid bullpens.  By making this trade he is admitting that he needs help in finding the every day guys.  

Realizing that dominant bullpens are luxuries contenders should enjoy, this is a trade the Royals needed to make.  

   

Verdict: Assuming Crisp's option for 2010 is picked up, I think the Royals win this trade.