All Time All Stars - Red Sox Pitchers

Imagine an All Time All Stars World Series of Boston vs. New York.  The Yankees would trot Ruth, Gehrig, and Mantle out there everyday.  That's some pretty scary stuff and most teams would probably acknowledge that they have little chance in competing with the greatest offensive force ever seen. Well, the Red Sox are one team that would not be intimidated.  Ted Williams didn't take crap from anybody and at first glance the pitching staff seems quite strong.  I can just picture Roger Clemens and Pedro giving the boys in pinstripes the middle finger as they strut to the mound. Those guys were tough sons of guns who didn't shy away in the heat of the moment. Let's take a look at who was on this team when SI published the game in 1973.

Is this the greatest pitcher of all time?

• Ray Culp SP
• Bill Dinneen SP
• Joe Dobson SP
• Ellis Kinder RP
• Dutch Leonard SP
• Carl Mays SP
• Mel Parnell SP
• Joe Wood SP
• Cy Young SP

This was just an okay staff. Cy Young might be the greatest pitcher of all time while Smoky Joe Wood and Dutch Leonard had a few excellent seasons but it pretty much ends there.  Teams are going to have to do better if they want to hang with the Yankees.  Luckily, with Roger Clemens and Pedro coming on board it's about to get scary good in the rotation.

Original Locks: Cy Young, Smoky Joe Wood, Ellis Kinder, Dutch Leonard

Cy Young is a no brainer.  Joe Wood had a great run from 1911-1915 that make him a cinch as well. Leonard was Wood's teammate and may have been even better.  Kinder is the best reliever in team history in my opinion.  In 1949 he led the league in complete game shutouts and two years later led the league in saves while accumulating 5.1 WAR.  

New guys that are locks: Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant, Tim Wakefield,

With the retention of Cy Young, this rotation is now possibly the best in the game. Roger Clemens can also be included in the conversation as greatest pitcher ever and he has the hardware to prove it by putting 7 Cy Young Awards on his mantle.  Pedro Martinez's 1999 and 2000 seasons might be the greatest back to back years ever.  He averaged 20-5 with a 1.90 ERA in the steroid era.  His ERA+ for those two combined seasons is 265!  That's two hundred and sixty five percent better than the league average.  Luis Tiant won 20 games three times and led the league in ERA once.  And Tim Wakefield is the franchise leader in innings pitched and is third in wins.  Gotta have the knuckler in there.

If the Red Sox were to set a rotation I think it'd go Young, Clemens, Martinez, Tiant.  Wow.

Just like with the Yankees we've got eight locks out of ten spots. Below are who I believe are the best candidates for the final two spots.

Guys on the bubble:

• Josh Beckett - The ace on the Sox second championship team, Beckett has had moments of brilliance cuopled with injuries. In 2007 he was fantastic and led the league in wins with 20.
• Joe Dobson - Dobson pitched 1500+ innings in Beantown and won 106 games.  Both rank in the 10 ten in team history.
• Derek Lowe - Lowe bounced from starting and relieving, finding success in each role. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2002 and his ERA+ was 127 as a member of the Red Sox.
• Carl Mays - Mays played for four different franchises and none of them really scream at me as the obvious choice.  He ranks highly in several categories including having the sixth best career ERA among Red Sox pitchers so I'll put him here. 
• Mel Parnell - Won 20+ games twice including 25 in 1949.  Parnell only pitched ten years but managed to accumulate the 8th most WAR in team history.
• Jonathan Papelbon - Love him or hate him the man was pretty dominant as a closer for the BoSox.  Made four all star teams and saved 322 games in Boston.
• Bob Stanley - Stanley was a multi-inning reliever who pitched really well for nine straight seasons until 1986.  He ranks eighth in wins, second in saves, and first in games pitched in team history.
• Babe Ruth - Ruth's not going to make this team because he's already a Yankee but he would be a candidate otherwise.  

Vote for the two pitchers you feel should make the team in the poll located on the upper right-hand side of the homepage.

Updated poll results: Jonathan Papelbon was the top vote getter with Mel Parnell second. These two will be added to Boston's staff.

All Time All Stars - Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox franchise is one of the greatest in the sport.  There are several Hall of Famers from Ted Williams to Cy Young who wear the Boston "B" on their bust in Cooperstown.  Yet, despite this the team went nearly 90 years between championships.  How does this happen?  I'm not even sure but fans will be excited to see some of the improvements the franchise has made since their original roster was created. As a refresher, below are the guidelines for choosing each team's roster.

• Each team must be composed of fifteen (15) position players and ten (10) pitchers.
• At least one pitcher must be a relief pitcher
• Each position must have at least two players on the roster who can capably fill it.  Think of this as having a starter and a backup. 
• At least one player chosen to represent a position must have played that position as their primary defensive position.  For instance, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth cannot be chosen as the only two representatives at first base since neither played there for the majority of their career.
• Players must have been active no earlier than 1901.  I chose 1901 since that was the first year of the American League.  We need a cutoff at some point and this seemed logical to me. If a player accumulated stats prior to 1901 (Cy Young for instance) these stats will be disregarded.
• To be eligible for a position a player must have played one full season as a starter there or 10% of his career games.  The same goes for starting and relieving.
• The team a player represents should be the one that makes the most sense for that player. For instance, Alex Rodriguez has played for three teams but he's played 300 more games as a Yankee than a Mariner. He won an MVP as a Yankee and has more career WAR as a Yankee.  Therefore, he's going to be on the Yankee roster.
• Batter handedness should not impact the players chosen.

Here we go...

2012 MLB Preview: AL East

Every year there is talk about how baseball should approach realignment to make it more fair for the other teams in the American League East division.  "Who can compete when you've got teams tripling the payroll of the other teams?" they say.  The Yankees and Red Sox are two of the most successful teams in baseball right now and it's no coincidence that they're the two big spenders, too. But frugal Tampa Bay has had success right along with them of late and looks to be there again this season as well.  Now Toronto's rebuild is beginning to bear fruit and after finishing with a winning record last season, the team looks to take the next step with some exciting young players.  Baltimore is in the middle of what seems like a never ending rebuilding process but there are beginning to be signs of changes for the positive.  All of these factors make this a division to watch this summer.  The Yankees and Red Sox are not invulnerable meaning maybe it's someone else's time for a change.  This should end all that nonsense about "fairness" and realignment.

Baltimore Orioles

2011 Record: 69-93

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $97 million
Highest Paid Player: Nick Markakis - $12 million
Best Player: Catcher Matt Wieters broke out last season but I believe the best is yet to come.
Best Pitcher: Jake Arrieta gets the nod over Brian Matusz here simply because of how awful Matusz was last season.
Say Hello To: Darren O'Day RP, Taylor Teagarden C, Endy Chavez OF, Jai Miller OF, Wilson Betemit 3B, Armando Galarraga SP, Ronny Paulino C, Jason Hammel SP, Matt Lindstrom RP, Nick Johnson 1B
Wave Goodbye: Craig Tatum RP (Hou), Vladimir Guerrero (Japan), Cesar Izturis SS (Mil), Luke Scott DH (TB), Jo-Jo Reyes SP (Pit), Jeremy Guthrie SP (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. What is the organizational plan? The team believes by abstaining from big name free agents and allocating that money to player development through the draft and via international signees they'll be able to build a better foundation that will allow for prolonged success.  The only problem with this method is it takes a long time to see results.

2. Is Brian Matusz's career as an effective big leaguer over? That's a little harsh but there are reasons to be concerned. Whispers about work ethic may not be unfounded but the bigger question is why did his velocity and command slip so much last season? If he posts another year like 2011 he'll go from elite prospect to bust in less than two years.

3. What's the latest on Brian Roberts' health?  In May of last season Roberts hit his head sliding into first base and suffered a severe concussion.  He missed the rest of the season and has not participated in live games in spring training.  The team is likely optimistic he'll play soon since they put him on the 15 day DL and not the 60 day DL.

Expectations: It's going to be another losing season thanks to being in a stacked division.  If the young pitchers can take a step forward there will be reason for optimism, otherwise the team will be going backwards - not a good sign when you're already in last place.

Matt Wieters is another example of how it often takes a catcher
 longer than the average hitter to develop his offensive skills.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Reimold LF

2. Johnson DH

3. Markakis RF

4. Jones CF
5. Wieters C

6. Hardy SS

7. Reynolds 3B

8. Davis 1B
9. Andino 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Arrieta
2. Hammel
3. Chen
4. Hunter
5. Matusz

CL: Johnson

Top 5 Prospects Who Could Move this Month

Yesterday I wrote about ten players who will likely be moved before this year's trade deadline.  In every deal that's made someone (or cash) needs to be going the other way, too.  Most contenders won't want to give up a piece of their core so prospects tend to make up the bulk of deadline deals. For many teams prospects are the preferred haul anyway.  Below I've listed a few prospects who are likely to be dealt in exchange for help in the final third of the season.

1. Jonathan Singleton 1B, Phillies
With Ryan Howard entrenched at first base for the next several seasons, it's possible the Phillies will look to move their top hitting prospect for some help. Singleton is no sure thing - he's still only 19 and in High A - but he's already shown a knack for taking ball four to go along with his line drive stroke.

2. Arodys Vizcaino/Randall Delgado/Mike Minor SP, Braves
If the Braves are able to acquire a key piece to their team they'll have to give up a good pitching prospect. Everyone should just assume Julio Teheran is untouchable so other teams should turn their focus to three other players rated as B+ or A- prospects.  Vizcaino has the highest ceiling but also has battled elbow and back issues. Delgado has the lowest ceiling of the three (he grades a 3rd starter in the majors) but is nearly a finished product and fared better than Teheran did in his cup of coffee.  Minor has better stuff than Delgado but doesn't have the injury history of Vizcaino. Plus he's already pitched a fair amount in the majors with success.

3. Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick OF, Red Sox
The Red Sox have never been shy about making a splash to help them get a World Series ring. Kalish once ranked as a top prospect but has battled nagging injuries preventing him from playing to his full potential.  Reddick, called to the majors over of Kalish, has really played well lately but many scouts still worry about his lack of plate discipline. Neither of these guys will likely turn into a star but both could bring home a solid left-handed reliever in a poor lefty market.

4. Tanner Scheppers P, Rangers
Scheppers is an enigma. He started off fantastically last season but once he moved to the starting rotation really struggled. He was then moved back to the bullpen where he continued to struggle. This season has been no different. His peripherals suggest a lower ERA than the 5.29 he's currently sporting. Somebody will see the giant P on his back (Potential) and target him in a deal with Texas.

5. Mat Gamel 4C, Brewers
Technically, Gamel's not a prospect. But he hasn't gotten a full time job yet thanks to all of his positions being blocked (Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee, Ryan Braun, and Cory Hart) by established major leaguers.  The Brewers don't have a lot to offer and with the Prince's impending free agency it is very likely they go all in. After all they did when they got Sabathia. Gamel is ready now though he'd be best utilized without his glove.

MLB Predictions: AL East

Wow, I apologize to my readers for not having posted this prior to the start of the season.  Time has really gotten away from me. I'll do my best to get my predictions up for the season in the next few days. Each year I do a season preview for each team but this year I've decided to amend it a bit in order to make it easier to read and easier for me to compile.

Boston Red Sox
Best Player: Kevin Youkilis is the guy I'd most like to have in real life. Carl Crawford in fantasy.
Best Pitcher: Jon Lester
Best off-season move:  Signing Carl Crawford to a 7 year mega-contract and trading for 1B Adrian Gonzalez tie for the best move.
Biggest off-season loss: Adrian Beltre
Biggest Concerns:
1. Team defense.  Although Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent defensive player, having Youkilis slide back over to 3B where he did not play last season hurts a little bit. Also Crawford is probably wasted in left field 81 times this year due to the Green Monster and Jacoby Ellsbury does not rate well at all in center field.
2. Will Varitek and Saltalamacchia hit?
3. Can Josh Beckett rebound or is he now a back-end of the rotation pitcher?
Expectations: If Boston fails to reach the playoffs heads will roll.  On paper this is the best team in baseball and expectations are that they will reach the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Crawford LF
4. Youkilis 3B
5. Gonzalez 1B
6. Ortiz DH
7. Cameron RF
8. Saltalamacchia C
9. Scutaro SS
SP Jon Lester

Mike Cameron to BoSox: What does it really mean?

The Red Sox signed Mike Cameron to a 2-year deal this week with the intention of putting him in left field. Cameron is easily one of the best five or ten defensive centerfielders in baseball. When Jason Bay spurned the Red Sox for free agency Boston wisely snatched Cameron, whose overall value is underrated. There have been several articles/blogposts about how Cameron's value is at least equal to that of Bay.

All that is nice but I can't help but feel this move was made with something bigger in mind. Boston is the one park where you can hide a terrible defensive left fielder (Manny) for 81 games.

No, the recent rumors of Boston trying to trade for Adrian Gonzalez would seem to have merit. Any trade for Gonzalez would likely include Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz (hence Boston also signing John Lackey). If Boston doesn't make a big trade then they'll just have to settle for having what is likely one of the greatest defensive outfields of all time.

Jim Rice Keltner List

In Jim Rice's first year on the ballot he received less than 30 percent of the vote.  Last year he was oh-so-close to getting in.  Now that the fifteenth and final year of his eligibility is upon us there is growing speculation that he's in.  Why is he a better candidate today than he was fifteen years ago?  I have no idea.  I thought I'd run a Keltner test on him to see if we can find anything.  The Keltner List a non-quantified way of determining a player's HOF candidacy.  Here we go:

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

Yes, in a way.  He was regarded as the best hitter for a couple of years in the late '70s but not necessarily the best player. He did lead the AL in VORP (value over replacement level) in 1978 and finished 2nd in 1977 & 1979.

Was he the best player on his team?

Yes & No.  Fred Lynn was the superior player but injuries frequently kept him out of the lineup.  In the '80s Wade Boggs, Dwight Evans, and Rice flip flopped being the best player.

Was he the best player in baseball at his position?

Yes.  In the 1980s he was third behind Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

The Red Sox won the AL East in 1975 & 1986.  In 1977 they just finished 2.5 out and in 1978..well Bucky Dent ruined that one.

Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Not really.  1986 was the end of the line.  Played poorly in '87 and '88.

Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the HOF?

No. In fact I believe he is not the best at his position who is not in the HOF since I rank him behind Tim Raines, Albert Belle, and maybe Roy White.

Are most players who have comparable statistics in the HOF?

Using the Baseball-Reference link four of his best comps are in the HOF.  The six that are not are Galarraga, Ellis Burks, Moises Alou, and Luis Gonzalez.  

Do the players statistics meet HOF standards?

Yes. Again, using the Baseball-Reference HOF monitor he meets the standards.

Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Yes.  His home/road splits are dramatic and his defensive value is inflated due to playing in Fenway (see assists for Ramirez, Manny).  His OPS+ was 128 for his career though, and that is right on par for HOFers.

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the HOF?

No.  

How many MVP type seasons did he have?  Did he ever win an MVP award?  If not, how many times was he close?

Rice finished in the top 5 six times and won the award in 1978.

How many All-Star type seasons did he have?  How many All-Star games did he play in?  Did most of the players who played this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Rice made the squad eight times.  I think that meets the standard for HOF.

If this man was the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

The years he was the best (1977, 1978, 1983) they missed by 2.5 games, Bucky Dent, and a lot of games.  I think the answer to this question is yes.

What impact did this player have on baseball history?  Was he responsible for any rule changes?  Did he introduce any new equipment?  Did he change the game in any way?

No.

Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?  

From what I can find he was somewhat surly in his interviews but is most remembered for carrying a child out of the stands and to safety after being hit w/ a foul ball.  Was also credited as being one of the guys who "played the game the right way."  Sounds a bit like Frank Thomas, no?

I don't think this screams yes or no.  He's definitely on the fence.  If I had a vote I'd probably lean towards no based on the fact that he is not one of the three best players at his position not in the Hall of Fame.  Voters should be responsible for keeping the Hall of Fame an elite group.  I don't think electing Jim Rice enhances the Hall of Fame in any way.

Jim Rice was a very good player and in some seasons a great player but he would not get my vote.  Sorry, Jim.

Royals go Cuckoo for Coco Crisp

Earlier this week the Red Sox traded Coco Crisp to the Royals for RP Ramon Ramirez.  Kansas City, who had one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, has now traded two relievers this offseason.  Crisp was rumored to have been on the block all through last season but apparently was never traded because the Red Sox felt that they  needed safeguard in case Jacoby Ellsbury faltered and weren't being offered equal value for 2+ years of Crisp.  Now that he was finally moved let's see what each team is getting in the deal.

Boston

Ramirez is a right-handed relief pitcher who posted a 2.64 ERA in 71.1 IP last season.  Ramirez struck out 70 batters and walked 31.  Now these numbers look like Ramirez should be a closer candidate, but let's take a closer look to see if this still holds true.

Ramirez vs RHP .153/.244/.212 and vs LHP .300/.370/.375

This is an extreme split which shows us that last year's performance is not really sustainable unless used as  a ROOGY (righty one out guy).  His failure to neutralize lefties relegates him to a career as a middle reliever.

Kansas City

It turns out Coco Crisp is not the star many thought he would be while playing in Cleveland. What Crisp has developed into is someone who is likely to put up an OBP in the .340s with very good defense.  Two years ago he led the league in +/- whereas last year he was +3 (although he did battle leg injuries all season).  His true ability probably lies somewhere in between.   Either way he automatically becomes the best defensive player on the Royals and improves team OBP.  

Recap: Boston will maximize their team value if the acquisition of Ramirez does not push Justin Masterson to the rotation.  Leaving Masterson in the pen--who absolutely has the ability to pitch multiple innings-- will further enable the BoSox to use Ramirez correctly due to his extreme platoon split.  This trade also proves that Ellsbury is the man in center.  For a team like Boston these are good gambles to take.  A fourth outfielder is easy enough to find and solidifying their bullpen is something that could make the difference in an always tough AL East.

For Kansas City the need for everyday players was urgent.  Mark Teahen and Jose Guillen were not getting it done in the outfield corners.  Now one of them is on the trade block (I'm guessing for a relief pitcher) with DeJesus moving from center to take their spot.   Fans need to realize that Crisp is not a savior and will not make this team a contender by himself.  What he does do is improve the team in some of the smaller areas that needed definite improvement: defense, baserunning, and getting on base.

In each of his years as GM,  Dayton Moore has been able to build solid bullpens.  By making this trade he is admitting that he needs help in finding the every day guys.  

Realizing that dominant bullpens are luxuries contenders should enjoy, this is a trade the Royals needed to make.  

   

Verdict: Assuming Crisp's option for 2010 is picked up, I think the Royals win this trade.