2012 MLB Preview: NL West

The National League West is the division that seems to get less coverage than any other.  This may be because the Dodgers have been mediocre of late, the Rockies play in a smaller market, the late start times, or all of the above.  This is all too bad because there were some impressive performances in this division last season.  Ian Kennedy and Clayton Kershaw tied for the league lead with 21 wins apiece -Kershaw actually won the triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) title.  Matt Kemp nearly won the hitter's triple crown, failing to win only the batting title where he finished third.  Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most impressive talents in baseball and last season put up his third straight season of 5 wins above replacement. There is a lot of individual talent but the depth of each team's rosters is lacking.  No team should run away from another and whoever finishes in last place may only be 10 games back giving each intradivisional matchup meaning.  That's good for baseball.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2011 Record: 94-68

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $72.9 million
Highest Paid Player: Stephen Drew - $7.75 million
Best Player: Justin Upton was expected to be a superstar when he broke through to the majors at age 19. Last season he seemed to put it together by hitting 31 homers and finishing with a .289/.369/.529 line.
Best Pitcher: Ian Kennedy had his breakthrough season last year going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Say Hello To: Lyle Overbay 1B, Trevor Cahill SP, Craig Breslow RP, Takashi Saito RP, Jason Kubel OF, Mike Jacobs 1B, Cody Ransom 3B, Craig Tatum C
Wave Goodbye: Xavier Nady OF, Jason Marquis SP,  Zach Duke SP (Hou), Collin Cowgill OF (Oak), Jarrod Parker SP (Oak), Ryan Cook RP (Oak), Micah Owings P (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is this team the 2010-11 Padres? Oh no, they're much better than that.  The Padres won the division in 2010 due to an incredible bullpen, defense, and a ton of luck.  The Dbacks have some real talent on the roster and won't collapse like the Padres did last season.

2. Who's the biggest wild card on this team?  Stephen Drew's health is paramount. Willie Bloomquist is not a good enough player to have in the lineup everyday and while Drew may not have lived up to his hype, he's still a solid major league shortstop.  The longer the club is without him the tougher it will be to overtake the Giants.

3. Is Ian Kennedy the type of pitcher to build around long term? It's too soon to say although last season's results were pretty remarkable.  If he performs close to that level again this season Arizona should be working their butts off to keep him around. 

Expectations: The team traded for Oakland's #2 starter in the offseason in an effort to bolster their own rotation and signed Jason Kubel to be the left-handed side of their platoon in left field.  This team should compete and has a very good chance to get back to the playoffs.

Arizona traded for groundball machine Trevor Cahill to
improve a rotation and enhance their attempts to win now.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bloomquist SS

2. Hill 2B

3. Upton RF

4. Montero C
5. Young CF

6. Kubel LF

7. Roberts 3B

8. Goldschmidt 1B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Kennedy
2. Hudson
3. Cahill
4. Collmenter
5. Saunders

CL: Putz

2011 MLB Predictions: NL West

What Lincecum (right) fails to realize is he just lost in the first round of the World Series of Beard. 

Brian Wilson (left) would go on to win both championships last November.

Instead of writing a preview of the National League Central we'll skip it and head to the West. The Central has six teams and will take a bit longer so I'll save it for last. In the West you've got the defending champions as well as some of the best players in baseball. Let's take a look.

Colorado Rockies
Best Player: Troy Tulowitzki is not only the best SS in baseball but possibly the best player in the National League.
Best Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez had 16 wins at the All-Star break last year.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Ty Wigginton who can play each infield position may pay dividends.
Biggest off-season loss: Clint Barmes was a solid middle infielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. Is the rotation good enough to make the playoffs?  The rotation has questions, yes, but if Jason Hammel and Jorge de la Rosa are healthy they'll be just fine.
2. Was Carlos Gonzalez a fluke last year? Oakland gave up on him because they viewed him as an all-tools guy who couldn't put it together. I think those tools have translated into success.
3. What happens when Todd Helton gets hurt again? Helton's back issues are no secret but he's done better lately at staying in the lineup. Regardless, Colorado should have ample infield depth with Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, and Ian Stewart.
Expectations: This is a playoff caliber team and anything short of the playoffs will put pressure on everyone in the organization to get back to the level Colorado was at in 2008.
Opening day lineup:
1. Fowler CF
2. Smith RF
3. Gonzalez RF
4. Tulowitzki SS
5. Helton 1B
6. Wigginton 3B
7. Lopez 2B
8. Iannetta C
SP Ubaldo Jimenez

Most Overrated Outfielder traded to White Sox

Juan Pierre was finally freed of his role as "4th outfielder" with the Dodgers. The unfortunate thing for Chicago is that 4th outfielder is his perfect role. Juan Pierre - owner of 13 career home runs in 1400+ career games despite playing two and a half seasons in Coors Field - doesn't hit for enough (any) power to be considered a viable every day player. Yes, he does hit for a decent average (.301) but it's likely that once that skill starts to fade his OBP will really suffer as well since he doesn't walk much(career high of 55 in 2003). The skill he is most associated with is his speed until recently wasn't a very good baserunner despite being a threat to lead the league in steals. He takes poor routes to the ball as a center fielder and it's possible the only two outfielders with worse throwing arms are Johnny Damon and Jacoby Ellsbury. What makes this trade a real doozy is that he is owed a ton of money. These are the main reasons why I nicknamed Pierre "Moo" a few years ago (Most Overrated Outfielder).

That being said, Moo is still a player with uses. He's a left-handed hitter who makes good contact. Despite not having the power to be a prototypical corner outfielder he's above average defensively there. The main concern should be the fact he turns 33 in August. With his lack of secondary skills (power, OBP) it could be a fast, precipitous fall for Pierre. Combining his age with his personality complex (Spanish first name, French last name) would cause me to shy away from acquiring him.

I don't know where the Sox plan on playing Pierre this season but a LF platoon with Andruw Jones would make the most sense while playing Rios in CF and Quentin in RF. This could be a decent outfield but I wouldn't bet on it.

Season Preview: LA Dodgers

2008 Record: 84-78  .519

Run differential: +52 (6^th)

2008 payroll: $118,588,536

Last season’s Dodger squad was one marred with injuries and disappointment.  Rafael Furcal, Brad Penny, Nomar, Jason Schmidt, and Andruw Jones all failed to live up to expectations and missed substantial playing time.  This necessitated the Dodgers to make some bold moves to strengthen their roster during the stretch run.  Acquisitions of ManRam, Casey Blake, and Greg Maddux helped give them to the division crown for the first time since 2004.  Strong pitching allowed them to sweep past the Cubs and move to the NLCS where they lost to the eventual champion Phillies.

This season’s squad is unlikely to have the same injury luck but if lightning strikes twice it is doubtful there is enough depth to keep the team on top.  Brad Penny and Derek Lowe are both gone from last season’s rotation.  Clayton Kershaw and James McDonald are both ready to step in but there is reason to expect they’ll tire with the number of innings they will be needed to pitch.  The oft-injured Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf are also expected to be contributors.  If these three things work out then the Dodgers may be the best team in the league but it’s most likely only one will.

Offensively the Dodgers are set.  The lineup is a blend of power and speed and is evenly balanced with left and right-handed hitters meaning runs will come in bunches.  James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Rafael Furcal are good bets to improve on last season’s performance and though Manny won’t hit .396 again, having him in the cleanup spot for a full season will pay huge dividends.

This is a Dodger team that has championship expectations and rightly so, but if the rotation has issues it could be a rough summer in Dodgerland.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Russell Martin	$3.9 M	Drafted 17th rd 2002
C	Brad Ausmus	$1 M	Signed as FA 1/26/09
1b	James Loney	$.411 M	Drafted #19 overall 2002
2b	Orlando Hudson	$3.38 M	Signed as FA 2/20/09
3b	Casey Blake	$5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Cle 7/08. Resigned 12/08
SS	Rafael Furcal	$6.5 M	Signed as FA 12/05. Resigned 12/08
LF	Manny Ramirez	$25 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 7/31/08. Resigned 3/09
CF	Matt Kemp	$.406M	Drafted 6th rd 2003
RF	Andre Ethier	$3.1 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak
Inf	Mark Loretta	$1.25 M	Signed as FA 12/10/08
Inf	Blake DeWitt	$.39 M	Drafted #28 overall 2004
Of	Juan Pierre	$10 M	Signed as FA 11/06
Of	Delwyn Young	$.39 M	Drafted 4th rd 2002
SP	Chad Billingsley	$.5 M	Drafted #24 overall 2003
SP	Hiroki Kuroda	$10 M	Signed as FA from Japan 12/07
SP	Clayton Kershaw	$.39 M	Drafted #7 overall 2006
SP	Randy Wolf	$5 M	Signed as FA 2/6/09
SP	Jason Schmidt	$12 M	Signed as FA 12/06
Cl	Jonathan Broxton	$1.83 M	Drafted 6th rd 2002
SU	Hong-Chih Kuo	$.392M	Signed as amateur FA 1999
RP	Cory Wade	$.39 M	Drafted 10th rd 2004
RP	Claudio Vargas	$.4 M	Signed as FA 12/31/08
RP	Greg Miller	$.39 M	Drafted #31 overall 2002
RP	Eric Stults	$.39 M	Drafted 15th rd 2002
RP	Guillermo Mota	$2.35 M	Acquired in trade 11/07. Resigned 1/14/09

Payroll obligations to former players: Andruw Jones, Esteban Loaiza

Say hello to: Mark Loretta, Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf, Brad Ausmus, Claudio Vargas

Wave goodbye: Greg Maddux, Scott Proctor, Nomar Garciaparra, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Joe Beimel

Rookies: James McDonald

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Shawn Estes, Yhenzy Brazoban, Eric Milton, Ivan DeJesus, Doug Mientkiewicz

Potential breakout: Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw

Welcome to Earth: Hiroki Kuroda

Likely to rebound: Rafael Furcal missed most of last season due to injury.  He is apparently healthy this season.

Strengths: Infield defense.  Strong, balanced offense

Weaknesses: No depth in the rotation.  Jason Schmidt, who did not pitch last season and only threw 25 innings in 2007, is penciled in as the #4 starter

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

SS Furcal B  .357/.439/.573  5, 8  .347

C Martin R  .280/.385/.396  13, 18  .288

RF Ethier L  .305/.375/.510  20, 6  .310

LF Ramirez R  .332/.430/.601  37, 3

1B Loney L  .289/.338/.434  13, 7  .274

CF Kemp R  .290/.340/.459  18, 35  .282

2B Hudson B  .305/.367/.450  8, 4  .281

3B Blake R .274/.345/.463  21, 3

Prediction: 2^nd place NL West