Conference Power Rankings: West Coast Conference

Have you ever been home late on a Saturday night and turned the channel over to ESPN2 or ESPNU and seen some college basketball being played in what looked to be a high school gym? Odds are you were watching a West Coast Conference game. The WCC is comprised of nine small private schools - most of which do not have football - with strong religious affiliations. Gonzaga is the most well known to the casual basketball fan. After all, they've made 13 straight NCAA Tournament appearances winning at least once in ten of those years.
Gonzaga's not the only school to make an NCAA appearance during this run, either.  Here's a quick rundown of who has qualified out of the WCC since 1999:

Year	Schools (seed)	Year	Schools (seed)
1999	Gonzaga (10)	2006	Gonzaga (3)
2000	Gonzaga (10), Pepperdine (11)	2007	Gonzaga (10)
2001	Gonzaga (12)	2008	Gonzaga (7), St. Mary's (10), San Diego (13)
2002	Gonzaga (6), Pepperdine (10)	2009	Gonzaga (4)
2003	Gonzaga (9), San Diego (13)	2010	Gonzaga (8), St. Mary's (10)
2004	Gonzaga (2)	2011	Gonzaga (11)
2005	Gonzaga (3), St. Mary's (10)

As the chart shows, six times in the past thirteen years the WCC has sent multiple schools to the Big Dance. Not bad for a mostly obscure conference relegated to playing Saturday night games on the little brother channels of the ESPN network.  Prior to this season the WCC was an eight-member conference but newcomer BYU (basketball only) adds some clout to the hardwood.  The WCC isn't as deep as the Mountain West but St. Mary's and Gonzaga present challenges just the same.  Last year the Cougars earned a three seed and while that's not going to happen this year it's not unreasonable to think that BYU makes this a three-bid league.  So the next time you're flipping through the channels in the middle of the night and you see a couple of WCC schools battling it out stay a while and take it in.  There's some pretty good basketball out there.

Kevin Pangos looks to lead Gonzaga to an incredible
14th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Now on to the Power Rankings:

1. St. Mary's 14-2 (3-0) - How impressive was St. Mary's victory over BYU?  According to kenpom.com, BYU still ranks 30th in the nation in defensive efficiency even after giving up 98 points to the Gaels. That's some offense.
2. Gonzaga 12-2 (2-0) - The Zags continue to prove that the road to a WCC conference crown goes through Spokane. A 39 point victory over Portland was a great way to start the conference season.
3. BYU 13-4 (2-1) - BYU got a reality check when they visited St. Mary's last week. The best win on their schedule is still Oregon so they'll need to beat one of the top dogs to secure an at-large berth.
4. Loyola Marymount 8-7 (1-1) - Loyola played BYU tough and has a couple of nice wins against UCLA and St. Louis but there is a clear divide between #3 and the rest of the conference.
5. Pepperdine 7-7 (1-2) - Pepperdine had people believing they could be a spoiler in the WCC until they lost by 29 to St. Mary's. Losing badly at Gonzaga may even hurt their chances of a CBI invite.
6. Santa Clara 8-6 (0-1) - Thursday night's loss was not the way the Broncos wanted to start the year. A trip to Spokane is next meaning Santa Clara is likely going to be staring 0-2 in the face. This team is better than that and I expect they'll get their act together and make a push for fourth place.
7. San Francisco 10-6 (0-2) - San Francisco continues to play nobody in the non-conference schedule which probably hurts them when they run into the likes of Gonzaga/St. Mary's/BYU.  They may be the fourth best team in the conference or the 8th best.  It's too early to really tell but 0-2 puts you closer to last than first.
8. San Diego 5-9 (0-2) - San Diego's best win to this point is Maine and only two of their losses are by single digits.
9. Portland 4-11 (1-1) - Portland has played a respectable schedule with few cupcakes but no real world beaters either.  With only three wins they're stuck in the basement though they're possibly better than San Diego.

2011 MLB Predictions: NL West

What Lincecum (right) fails to realize is he just lost in the first round of the World Series of Beard. 

Brian Wilson (left) would go on to win both championships last November.

Instead of writing a preview of the National League Central we'll skip it and head to the West. The Central has six teams and will take a bit longer so I'll save it for last. In the West you've got the defending champions as well as some of the best players in baseball. Let's take a look.

Colorado Rockies
Best Player: Troy Tulowitzki is not only the best SS in baseball but possibly the best player in the National League.
Best Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez had 16 wins at the All-Star break last year.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Ty Wigginton who can play each infield position may pay dividends.
Biggest off-season loss: Clint Barmes was a solid middle infielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. Is the rotation good enough to make the playoffs?  The rotation has questions, yes, but if Jason Hammel and Jorge de la Rosa are healthy they'll be just fine.
2. Was Carlos Gonzalez a fluke last year? Oakland gave up on him because they viewed him as an all-tools guy who couldn't put it together. I think those tools have translated into success.
3. What happens when Todd Helton gets hurt again? Helton's back issues are no secret but he's done better lately at staying in the lineup. Regardless, Colorado should have ample infield depth with Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, and Ian Stewart.
Expectations: This is a playoff caliber team and anything short of the playoffs will put pressure on everyone in the organization to get back to the level Colorado was at in 2008.
Opening day lineup:
1. Fowler CF
2. Smith RF
3. Gonzalez RF
4. Tulowitzki SS
5. Helton 1B
6. Wigginton 3B
7. Lopez 2B
8. Iannetta C
SP Ubaldo Jimenez

2010 San Diego Padres team preview

2009 Record: 75-87   .463

Run Differential: -131

Before the season even began in 2009, the Padres seemed resigned to last place.  New ownership had moved in and lacked the financial resources to devote big bucks to the club right away causing Trevor Hoffman to leave via free agency and Jake Peavy to be placed on the trading block.  In fact, with numerous trade rumors swirling around their best player, it seemed they were begging someone to take him away.  Although the team exceeded many expectations and avoided last place, more roster changes were made. Scott Hairston, the team's second best hitter, was shipped to Oakland for prospects though he was re-acquired over the winter.  At the trading deadline Jake Peavy was traded to the White Sox for four pitching prospects arousing suspicions that the club was looking for quantity over quality.  Kevin Kouzmanoff was also traded to Oakland allowing Chase Headley to finally move to his natural position. New GM Jed Hoyer reportedly blew away the field in his interview which is good because he was probably the best GM candidate.  Judging by the low payroll and dearth of talent at all levels, he has his work cut out for him.

Expectations for 2010 should not be different than those of 2009. 

Mike Cameron to BoSox: What does it really mean?

The Red Sox signed Mike Cameron to a 2-year deal this week with the intention of putting him in left field. Cameron is easily one of the best five or ten defensive centerfielders in baseball. When Jason Bay spurned the Red Sox for free agency Boston wisely snatched Cameron, whose overall value is underrated. There have been several articles/blogposts about how Cameron's value is at least equal to that of Bay.

All that is nice but I can't help but feel this move was made with something bigger in mind. Boston is the one park where you can hide a terrible defensive left fielder (Manny) for 81 games.

No, the recent rumors of Boston trying to trade for Adrian Gonzalez would seem to have merit. Any trade for Gonzalez would likely include Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz (hence Boston also signing John Lackey). If Boston doesn't make a big trade then they'll just have to settle for having what is likely one of the greatest defensive outfields of all time.

Season Preview: San Diego Padres

2008 Record: 63-99  .389

Run differential: -127 (14th)

2008 payroll: $73,776,616

The worst thing that could have happened to this year’s San Diego team was the passing of California’s Community Property Law decades ago.  With owner John Moores going through divorce, all of his entities must be divided in half.  Since the team cannot be divided into two equal parts it must be sold.  This really is too bad because the franchise had its greatest successes under Moores including a 1998 trip to the World Series.

In order to make the team affordable for potential buyers, Khalil Greene was traded to St. Louis for a bag of apples and a mediocre reliever, Jake Peavy was in constant trade rumors all winter, and the team’s big free agent splash was backup outfielder Cliff Floyd. 

Furthermore, San Diego has one of the bottom five minor league systems with only Matt Antonelli having the potential to be an above average major leaguer—and even that seems unlikely after last season’s flop in AAA.  Even when a new owner is found the future looks bleak. 

At least Sandy Alderson and Kevin Towers retained their jobs so there is creativity in the front office.  San Diego fans should hope Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and possibly even Jake Peavy get traded to the highest bidders over the next couple of seasons in order to restock a terrible farm system Oakland style.  This will at least give the team some starting blocks.  Because with a low payroll and no minor league system we’re looking at the 1998-2000 Devil Rays as a best case scenario.  I doubt even the San Diego Chicken will even come out to watch these guys so if San Diegans need to laugh they should watch Anchorman.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Nick Hundley	$.39 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2005
C	Henry Blanco	$.75 M	Signed as FA 1/21/09
1b	Adrian Gonzalez	$9.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Tex 1/6/06. Signed extension 4/07
2b	Matt Antonelli	$.39 M	Drafted #17 overall 2006
3b	Kevin Kouzmanoff	$.41 M	Acquired in trade w/ Cle 11/06
SS	David Eckstein	$.85 M	Signed as FA 1/15/09
LF	Chase Headley	$.39 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2005
CF	Jody Gerut	$1.78 M	Signed as FA 1/21/08
RF	Brian Giles	$9M	Acquired in trade w/ Pit 8/26/03. Resigned 5/05.
Inf	Luis Rodriguez	$.675 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela '97
Inf	Everth Cabrera	$.39 M	Selected in Rule V draft '08
Of	Scott Hairston	$1.25 M	Acquired in trade w/ Ari 7/27/07
Of	Cliff Floyd	$.75 M	Signed as FA 2/5/09
SP	Jake Peavy	$8 M	Drafted 15th rd 1999. Signed extension 12/07
SP	Chris Young	$4.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Tex 1/6/06. Signed extension 4/07
SP	Cha Seung Baek	$.393 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 5/27/08
SP	Wade LeBlanc	$.39 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2006
SP	Josh Greer	$.39 M	Drafted 3rd rd 2005
Cl	Heath Bell	$1.23 M	Acquired in trade w/ NYM 11/15/06
SU	Justin Hampson	$.403 M	Claimed off waivers from Col 10/06
RP	Cla Meredith	$.415 M	Drafted 6th rd 2004
RP	Joe Thatcher	$.393 M	Acquired in trade w/ Mil 7/25/07
RP	Chad Reineke	$.39 M	Acquired in trade w/ Hou 7/22/08
RP	Mark Worrell	$.39 M	Acquired in trade w/ StL 12/4/08
RP	Mike Ekstrom	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Panama 2006

Say hello to: Mark Worrell, Chris Britton, Henry Blanco, David Eckstein, Cliff Floyd

Wave goodbye: Khalil Greene, Josh Bard, Michael Barrett, Shawn Estes, Clay Hensley

Rookies: Matt Antonelli

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Mark Prior, Kyle Blanks, Chris Burke, Chris Britton, Emil Brown

Potential breakout: Chase Headley

Welcome to Earth:  Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent player but last season was a career year.

Likely to rebound: Chris Young

Strenghts: Jake Peavy and Chris Young play in a big ballpark with a good defensive outfield.

Weaknesses: There are many but I’ll say shortstop if Luis Rodriguez is playing everyday.

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

RF Giles L .306/.398/.456  12, 2  .318

2B Antonelli R

1B Gonzalez R  .279/.361/.510  36, 0  .311

3B Kouzmanoff R  .260/.299/.433  23, 0  .263

CF Gerut L/Hairston R* .303/.284

LF Headley B  .269/.337/.420  9, 4  .281

SS Eckstein R .265/.343/.349  2, 2,  .260

C Hundley R  .237/.278/.359  5, 0  .236

*I have listed EqA’s for Gerut & Hairston

Prediction: 5^th place and the worst record in the NL 

Khalil Greene to St. Louis

Khalil Greene was traded to St. Louis last week for RHP Mark Worrell and a Player to be Named Later (PTBNL).

For St. Louis, running Greene out there everyday instead whichever inept utility infielder they were putting out there before represents a pretty nifty upgrade.  One might look at Greene's stats and see a guy that shouldn't be playing everyday but when not playing in Petco National Park Greene has posted an acceptable .270/.318/.484 line.  The real concern St. Louis fans should have is his how he'll adjust to his new surroundings.  Since going to school at Clemson, Greene has had the reputation of having a good glove.  Most defensive metrics rate him somewhere in the middle of the pack which is fine if he's hitting, but Busch stadium is nearly as tough on right handed power hitters as Petco so there is a bit of a risk his offense improves minimally.  

In Worrell San Diego gets a AAA side-arming relief pitcher with fly ball tendencies.  Petco seems to be the perfect place for a guy like this. Due to his side-arm delivery he'll probably always have trouble with lefties, but GM Kevin Towers always seems to pull someone off the scrap pile that works better than imagined so if he puts up a 3.60 ERA in 50 innings I won't be surprised.  Basically, though, this trade is a straight out salary dump (probably enabling the team to keep Peavy).  But what do they do for SS now?  

Verdict: This trade really concerns me.  With the John Moore (the owner of the Padres) going through a divorce, the team is up for sale and slashing payroll .  When trading your starting shortstop who's making $6.5 million (a real bargain) for a middle reliever and a PTBNL is considered a necessity, that's a problem.

Easy win for St. Louis.  Watch Greene hit 20 homers and hit 35 doubles for LaRussa because that's just the way things seem to work for him.