Who will be the next 300 game winner?

Recently I was listening to a Phillies game on the radio and I heard the announcers talking about how Roy Halladay stands a good shot at winning 300 games and if he does how he'll possibly be the last to do so for a long time. Later Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com blogged about the statement too.  They were right in acknowledging that he's had great durability and that durability will need to continue as he ages if he's to have any chance.  Pitching for the Phillies right now doesn't hurt either since they've been one of baseball's most consistently good teams in the past half decade.

As much as I'm impressed by him I don't believe Roy Halladay has the best chance of winning 300 games of active pitchers. I do believe the next 300 game winner is active, however.  I've often mentioned to friends that I thought CC Sabathia had a real shot of winning 300 after he signed with the Yankees three years ago and this little exercise will give me the opportunity to compare him side by side with Halladay.

First off, here's a little breakdown of every pitcher who's had a shot of winning 300 games since 1980:

		Total Wins	Wins before turning 30	Wins after 30	Age at 300th Win	Age of Final Win	Date of 300th Win
Randy Johnson		303	64	239	45	46	6/4/09
Tom Glavine		305	124	181	41	42	8/5/07
Greg Maddux		355	151	204	38	42	8/7/04
Roger Clemens		354	146	208	40	44	6/13/03
Nolan Ryan		324	122	202	43	46	7/31/90
Tom Seaver		311	146	165	40	41	8/4/85
Don Sutton		324	139	185	41	43	6/18/86
Phil Niekro		318	31	287	46	48	10/6/85
Steve Carlton		329	133	196	38	43	9/23/83
Gaylord Perry		314	58	256	43	44	5/6/82
Tommy John		297	98	199	N/A	46	N/A
Bert Blyleven		287	156	131	N/A	41	N/A
Ferguson Jenkins		284	135	149	N/A	40	N/A

The first thing that stands out is that every 300 game winner has pitched into their 40's and with the exceptions of Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux they've needed to in order to get the milestone.  Another important thing to note is how important it is to be successful in your twenties.  Unless a pitcher can continue pitching until he's 45 he'll need to earn about 120 wins in his twenties to have a realistic shot.  One thing that's not noted in the chart but should be pointed out is that durability is extremely important.  Missing a season can easily set you back enough so that 300 wins is just enough out of reach that a team won't be willing to sign an aging hurler with fading skills.  With that being said here are the best candidates among active pitchers for reaching 300 wins:

		Age	Wins	Wins/Yr	Wins before 30	Wins Needed	Wins/Yr Until 41*
Jamie Moyer		49	269	14	34	31	N/A
Roy Halladay		35	192	17	99	108	18.0
Tim Hudson		36	183	16	101	117	23.4
CC Sabathia		31	181	17	172	119	11.9
Mark Buehrle		33	164	14	122	136	17.0
Roy Oswalt		34	159	16	111	141	20.1
J. Verlander		29	111	18	111	189	15.8
Dan Haren		31	108	14	101	192	19.2
F. Hernandez		26	88	14	88	212	14.1
Jered Weaver		29	87	16	87	213	17.8
Zack Greinke		28	80	12	80	220	16.9
Cole Hamels		28	79	14	79	221	17.0
Tim Lincecum		28	71	15	71	229	17.6
C. Kershaw		24	50	14	50	250	14.7

*Note: I'm using the age of 41 because the average age of players earning their 300th win in the first table is 41.5

Injury and crappy bullpens have cost Tim Hudson more wins than I care to count.

• How amazing is Jamie Moyer?  He only earned 34 wins prior to his 30th birthday and now has 269 on his resume.  Sure he's 49 but what a remarkable career.  This may be his final season as he's coming off Tommy John surgery and is not as effective as he was pre-surgery (when he was 47).  
• Roy Halladay is second on the list with 192 career victories.  If he's to get 300 wins he'll need to average 18 wins a year over the next six seasons.  That's tough but not impossible, especially with the way he's been pitching the last few seasons.
• Tim Hudson is hurt here thanks to losing half of 2008 and all but seven starts worth of 2009 to injury.  I don't have data available but I willing to bet he led the majors in wins blown by bullpen from 2000-2010.  
• Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt have roughly the same shot in my opinion. Buehrle's been plagued by slipping effectiveness while Oswalt has trouble staying healthy.  The odds are stacked against them.
• Justin Verlander is a tricky one to put odds on.  He is absolutely the best pitcher in the American League right now and is extremely durable (look at those innings pitched numbers over the past five seasons: 201, 201, 240, 224, 250).  I'd like his odds better if I believed he'll still be pitching when he's 40.
• Haren is a bit of a late bloomer. He's just now entering his prime and his odds can really improve with a couple more good seasons.
• Weaver, Lincecum, Greinke, and Hamels are all in the same boat. They're young and have a long way to go.  Six years ago Barry Zito would have been in their age group but he had 102 wins so be careful when making projections.
• Clayton Kershaw is a really interesting case.  At just 24 years old he's already 16% of the way there.  Last year's Cy Young Award winner is just too far away to project with any certainty.  An injury could derail him but he's so good that if he doesn't lose too much effectiveness it would only be a minor setback.  He's a fun one to watch.

After factoring in age and career wins presented in the table above, it's clear to me CC Sabathia has an excellent chance at reaching 300 wins.  Roy Halladay is the guy closest with a reasonable chance which is probably why he's the one being talked about most. After CC and Hallday, Felix Hernandez has probably a one in three shot since he's still only 26 and may have 100 career victories by the end of this season.  Everyone else is still too young or too far away to take seriously.  When some of these guys reach 200 wins then we can talk.

2012 MLB Preview: NL West

The National League West is the division that seems to get less coverage than any other.  This may be because the Dodgers have been mediocre of late, the Rockies play in a smaller market, the late start times, or all of the above.  This is all too bad because there were some impressive performances in this division last season.  Ian Kennedy and Clayton Kershaw tied for the league lead with 21 wins apiece -Kershaw actually won the triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) title.  Matt Kemp nearly won the hitter's triple crown, failing to win only the batting title where he finished third.  Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most impressive talents in baseball and last season put up his third straight season of 5 wins above replacement. There is a lot of individual talent but the depth of each team's rosters is lacking.  No team should run away from another and whoever finishes in last place may only be 10 games back giving each intradivisional matchup meaning.  That's good for baseball.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2011 Record: 94-68

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $72.9 million
Highest Paid Player: Stephen Drew - $7.75 million
Best Player: Justin Upton was expected to be a superstar when he broke through to the majors at age 19. Last season he seemed to put it together by hitting 31 homers and finishing with a .289/.369/.529 line.
Best Pitcher: Ian Kennedy had his breakthrough season last year going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Say Hello To: Lyle Overbay 1B, Trevor Cahill SP, Craig Breslow RP, Takashi Saito RP, Jason Kubel OF, Mike Jacobs 1B, Cody Ransom 3B, Craig Tatum C
Wave Goodbye: Xavier Nady OF, Jason Marquis SP,  Zach Duke SP (Hou), Collin Cowgill OF (Oak), Jarrod Parker SP (Oak), Ryan Cook RP (Oak), Micah Owings P (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is this team the 2010-11 Padres? Oh no, they're much better than that.  The Padres won the division in 2010 due to an incredible bullpen, defense, and a ton of luck.  The Dbacks have some real talent on the roster and won't collapse like the Padres did last season.

2. Who's the biggest wild card on this team?  Stephen Drew's health is paramount. Willie Bloomquist is not a good enough player to have in the lineup everyday and while Drew may not have lived up to his hype, he's still a solid major league shortstop.  The longer the club is without him the tougher it will be to overtake the Giants.

3. Is Ian Kennedy the type of pitcher to build around long term? It's too soon to say although last season's results were pretty remarkable.  If he performs close to that level again this season Arizona should be working their butts off to keep him around. 

Expectations: The team traded for Oakland's #2 starter in the offseason in an effort to bolster their own rotation and signed Jason Kubel to be the left-handed side of their platoon in left field.  This team should compete and has a very good chance to get back to the playoffs.

Arizona traded for groundball machine Trevor Cahill to
improve a rotation and enhance their attempts to win now.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bloomquist SS

2. Hill 2B

3. Upton RF

4. Montero C
5. Young CF

6. Kubel LF

7. Roberts 3B

8. Goldschmidt 1B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Kennedy
2. Hudson
3. Cahill
4. Collmenter
5. Saunders

CL: Putz

2011 MLB Predictions: NL West

What Lincecum (right) fails to realize is he just lost in the first round of the World Series of Beard. 

Brian Wilson (left) would go on to win both championships last November.

Instead of writing a preview of the National League Central we'll skip it and head to the West. The Central has six teams and will take a bit longer so I'll save it for last. In the West you've got the defending champions as well as some of the best players in baseball. Let's take a look.

Colorado Rockies
Best Player: Troy Tulowitzki is not only the best SS in baseball but possibly the best player in the National League.
Best Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez had 16 wins at the All-Star break last year.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Ty Wigginton who can play each infield position may pay dividends.
Biggest off-season loss: Clint Barmes was a solid middle infielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. Is the rotation good enough to make the playoffs?  The rotation has questions, yes, but if Jason Hammel and Jorge de la Rosa are healthy they'll be just fine.
2. Was Carlos Gonzalez a fluke last year? Oakland gave up on him because they viewed him as an all-tools guy who couldn't put it together. I think those tools have translated into success.
3. What happens when Todd Helton gets hurt again? Helton's back issues are no secret but he's done better lately at staying in the lineup. Regardless, Colorado should have ample infield depth with Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, and Ian Stewart.
Expectations: This is a playoff caliber team and anything short of the playoffs will put pressure on everyone in the organization to get back to the level Colorado was at in 2008.
Opening day lineup:
1. Fowler CF
2. Smith RF
3. Gonzalez RF
4. Tulowitzki SS
5. Helton 1B
6. Wigginton 3B
7. Lopez 2B
8. Iannetta C
SP Ubaldo Jimenez

2010 San Francisco Giants team preview

2009 Record: 88-74   .543

Run Differential: +46

Going into 2009 San Francisco knew if they were going to make the playoffs they would have to be led by their pitching staff.  The staff didn't disappoint as Tim Lincecum won his second Cy Young Award and Matt Cain had his best season to date.  Jonathan Sanchez, plagued by inconsistency during his young career, even threw a no-hitter.  The most pleasant surprise was provided in the form of Barry Zito who reverted to his form in Oakland in the second half of the season. As the pitching staff paved the way the offense flopped.  Only Pablo Sandoval played well enough to give the team hope for the future as his .330/.387/.556 line was enough to make him an All Star in his first full season.  Edgar Renteria was brought in to stabilize the infield but hit only .250 with no power raising concerns that he might be done.  Fred Lewis failed to repeat his surprising 2008 and everyone else that got serious playing time stunk, too.  If it wasn't for their NL leading defense the Giants would have finished a distant fourth in the division as opposed to a couple of games out of the Wild Card.

Unfortunately 2010 looks more like a repeat of 2009 than a new chapter.