2011 MLB Predictions: NL West

What Lincecum (right) fails to realize is he just lost in the first round of the World Series of Beard. 

Brian Wilson (left) would go on to win both championships last November.

Instead of writing a preview of the National League Central we'll skip it and head to the West. The Central has six teams and will take a bit longer so I'll save it for last. In the West you've got the defending champions as well as some of the best players in baseball. Let's take a look.

Colorado Rockies
Best Player: Troy Tulowitzki is not only the best SS in baseball but possibly the best player in the National League.
Best Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez had 16 wins at the All-Star break last year.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Ty Wigginton who can play each infield position may pay dividends.
Biggest off-season loss: Clint Barmes was a solid middle infielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. Is the rotation good enough to make the playoffs?  The rotation has questions, yes, but if Jason Hammel and Jorge de la Rosa are healthy they'll be just fine.
2. Was Carlos Gonzalez a fluke last year? Oakland gave up on him because they viewed him as an all-tools guy who couldn't put it together. I think those tools have translated into success.
3. What happens when Todd Helton gets hurt again? Helton's back issues are no secret but he's done better lately at staying in the lineup. Regardless, Colorado should have ample infield depth with Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, and Ian Stewart.
Expectations: This is a playoff caliber team and anything short of the playoffs will put pressure on everyone in the organization to get back to the level Colorado was at in 2008.
Opening day lineup:
1. Fowler CF
2. Smith RF
3. Gonzalez RF
4. Tulowitzki SS
5. Helton 1B
6. Wigginton 3B
7. Lopez 2B
8. Iannetta C
SP Ubaldo Jimenez

The Pac 10

I'm sure you've heard rumblings (on this site too) about how mediocre Pac 10 basketball has been this season.  It's quite possible only one team may qualify for the tournament.  This unprecedented for a BCS conference - even the SEC which is not known for basketball routinely gets three bids.  The most common reasoning I've heard for the conference's poor season has been the number of players drafted by the NBA over the last couple of years.  Let's take a look.
 

School	Record	RPI	Players Lost
Arizona St.	16-7 (6-4)	76	James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph
California	14-8 (6-4)	27	Ryan Anderson, DeVon Hardin*
Arizona	12-10 (6-4)	57	Jerryd Bayless, Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger
UCLA	11-11 (6-4)	123	Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Luc Mbah a Moute*,
			Jrue Holliday, Darrin Collison*
Washington	15-7 (5-5)	60	Jon Brockman
USC	13-9 (5-5)	83	OJ Mayo, DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson
Oregon	12-9 (4-5)	137	Malik Hairston*, Maarty Leunen*
Stanford	10-12 (4-6)	148	Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez
Wash. St.	14-8 (4-6)	110	Kyle Weaver*
Oregon St.	9-12 (3-6)	205

 

* denotes this player would be unable to help this season due to exhausted eligibility

Wow, that's a lot of players. UCLA in particular could have four more players on their team right now.  I still think this is a bit misleading.  I think the majority of players who know they will be first round picks as an underclassmen bolt, but how many do as freshman? Last year two players declared for the draft as after their first year in college making it likely that if it wasn't for the silly NBA rule these guys wouldn't have attended college at all.  I think schools realize the possibility of this happening when they offer a high profile kid a scholarship.  Only John Calipari has come to grips with it.

My take on this is, yeah, the Pac 10 has lost a ton of talent to the NBA which has caused typical contenders (UCLA, Arizona, ASU) to come back to the pack.  The result is a bunched conference with no elite team.  But saying the Pac 10 is a terrible basketball conference is lazy and doesn't address the real issue.  After all they've had 21 players drafted in the last two seasons.  The question analysts should be asking is where is that talent now?  I don't see any underclassmen as sure thing first rounders.  Last time I checked, when a player leaves school you get that scholarship back to offer to a new recruit.  This is likely just the result of a cyclical pattern but it bears watching next season.

3 Team Blockbuster: Is the winner who you think?

I'm only going to blog a short bit on this because the media is probably going to overly analyze it.

Yankees get: Curtis Granderson CF

Granderson is considered a superstar by many though that is inaccurate. He has decent pop, plays very good defense, and is still fleet of foot. The problem is his complete inability to hit left-handed pitching. A .600 OPS isn't going to get it done. I just heard someone on ESPN say that part of Granderson's appeal is his personality. He's a guy everyone will love talking to and can handle any media market. For once I agree with you, ESPN. Touche.

Diamondbacks get: Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson

Why Arizona felt the need to become involved in a trade like this is somewhat baffling. Trading five years of Scherzer for Edwin Jackson fresh off a career year is puzzling. The only thing that I can conjure up is that Arizona feels there's an excessive inherent injury risk associated with him. Despite failing miserably in 2008, Ian Kennedy is worth taking a flier on. Sure he flopped in New York the first time around but he could be a fine back-end starter in the JV league.

Tigers get: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, Austin Jackson

If you're going to trade your best and most marketable player you better get something good in return. Luckily for the Tigers it appears they did just that. Austin Jackson was the Yankees #1 prospect in 2009 and will be expected to immediately step in to fill Granderson's shoes. Scherzer could go one of two ways. He could figure things out and be one of the top starters in the AL or get moved to the bullpen and become a dominant reliever. Schlereth is probably going to end up in the bullpen also but should be an excellent reliever. He's still a prospect so if Detroit wants to give him another go as a starter you couldn't blame them. Phil Coke is a failed starter that should be a LOOGY in the pen.

Verdict: The Tigers are probably the big winners here. Picking up four players who can step in and help the team contend for a division crown for a combined 22 years is an impressive haul. The fact that the team is saving almost $15 million makes this a huge win for the franchise.

With free agents Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui questionable to return, the Yankees get the missing piece to their outfield while giving up only #1 prospect and fringe arm. The only negative is if Granderson's production begins to tail off as he ages, it could become a bit of an albatross. Either way I think this move propels them back to the World Series.

Arizona gets a solid mid-rotation starter who last season threw harder than everyone else in the AL and a finesse pitcher whose skills were once overrated. I don't think we'll be able to properly analyze this trade for the Diamondbacks for several years. I'm not ready to call them the big loser just yet, but it would not be surprising if they end up that way.

Season Preview: Arizona Diambondbacks

2008 Record: 82-80  .506

Run differential: +14 (7^th)

2008 payroll: $66,202,712

On May 1^st Arizona was 20-8 and had outscored its opponents by 56 runs.  Justin Upton looked like the next Ken Griffey Jr. and the trade for Dan Haren solidified a rotation that appeared to be the best in the league.  Shortly thereafter the offense went to sleep.  Chris Young only managed to hit .248, Eric Byrnes severely injured both hamstrings to the point where his future may be in question, and Chad Tracy had another disappointing season.  The bullpen wasn’t without blame either.  A year after having a fantastic season that caused many to include him among the league’s best relievers, Tony Pena put up numbers more along his career line (4.33 ERA, 80 hits in 72 IP).  Adam Dunn was acquired in a trade late in the season to try and resurrect a struggling lineup and Conor Jackson was shifted to left field in an effort to replace Byrnes.  These moves were made much too late, because in the end, Arizona missed out on the playoffs by just two games.

Now, Arizona did not make many moves this past offseason but there are still several reasons to like this club.  First is that the improvements of Stephen Drew and Justin Upton are for real. Upton is just 21 meaning the sky is the limit and Drew will probably make the All-Star team.  Although Chris Young’s batting average tanked last year his walk rate improved.  Replacing the departed Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez should at least be able to play 150 games giving the lineup additional stability.  If Eric Byrnes is able to play most of the season I think there will be a real offensive explosion in the desert.  Also, Max Scherzer and Jon Garland join a rotation, which is arguably already the league’s best with Webb, Haren, and innings eater Doug Davis.  Arizona is the rare case where just sitting back and letting the kids grow older represents a  greater gain than any free agent move.  Since the Dodger’s did little to improve this offseason, expect a dogfight for the division crown.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Chris Snyder	$3 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2002
C	Miguel Montero	$.401M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2001
1b	Conor Jackson	$3.05 M	Drafted #19 overall 2003
2b	Felipe Lopez	$3.5 M	Signed as FA 12/12/08
3b	Mark Reynolds	$.397M	Drafted 16th rd 2004
SS	Stephen Drew	$1.5 M	Drafted #15 overall 2004
LF	Eric Byrnes	$11 M	Signed as FA 12/27/05
CF	Chris Young	$1.75 M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 12/05
RF	Justin Upton	$.393M	Drafted #1 overall 2005
Inf	Chad Tracy	$4.75 M	Drafted 7th rd 2001
Inf	Tony Clark	$.8M	Acquired in trade w/ SD 7/08. Resigned 2/09
Inf	Augie Ojeda	$.712M	Signed as FA 12/07
Of	Alex Romero	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2002
SP	Brandon Webb	$6.5 M	Drafted 8th rd 2000. Signed extension 1/06
SP	Dan Haren	$5.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 12/07. Signed extension 8/5/08
SP	Doug Davis	$8.75 M	Acquired in trade w/ Mil 11/25/06
SP	Jon Garland	$6.25 M	Signed as FA 1/29/09
SP	Max Scherzer	$1 M	Drafted #11 overall 2006
Cl	Chad Qualls	$2.53M	Acquired in trade w/ Hou 12/07
SU	Jon Rauch	$2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 7/22/08
RP	Tom Gordon	$.5 M	Signed as FA 2/6/09
RP	Scott Schoenweis	$3.6 M	Acquired in trade w/ NYM 12/12/08
RP	Tony Pena	$.43 M	Signed as amateur FA from D.R. 2002
RP	Yusmiero Petit	$.412M	Acquired in trade w/ Fla 3/07
RP	Travis Blackley	$.405M	Signed as FA 12/19/08

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Say hello to: Scott Schoenweis, Felipe Lopez, Jon Garland, Tom Gordon

Wave goodbye: Connor Robertson, Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Lyon, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Juan Cruz

Rookies: none

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Gerardo Parra

Potential breakout: Justin Upton, Stephen Drew

Welcome to Earth: I see no one on this team that is likely to decline.  Maybe a bullpen guy?

Likely to rebound: Chris Young

Strengths: The best 1-2 punch of any rotation in the NL.

Weaknesses: Strikeouts. Reynolds whiffed 200 times last year and Young, Byrnes, Upton, and the combined at-bat total for the catchers are all a threat to swing and miss 150+ times.

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

CF Young R  .248/.315/.443  22, 14  .258

SS Drew L  .291/.333/.502  21, 3  .277

1B Jackson R  .300/.376/.446  12, 10  .285

RF Upton R  .250/.353/.463  15, 1  .272

3B Reynolds R  .239/.320/.458  28, 11  .266

LF Byrnes R  .209/.272/.369  6, 4  .219

C Snyder R/Montero L  .272/.260

2B Lopez R  .283/.343/.387  6, 8

Prediction: 1^st place NL West. Lose in NLCS.