2008 Record: 82-80 .506
Run differential: +14 (7th)
2008 payroll: $66,202,712
On May 1st Arizona was 20-8 and had outscored its opponents by 56 runs. Justin Upton looked like the next Ken Griffey Jr. and the trade for Dan Haren solidified a rotation that appeared to be the best in the league. Shortly thereafter the offense went to sleep. Chris Young only managed to hit .248, Eric Byrnes severely injured both hamstrings to the point where his future may be in question, and Chad Tracy had another disappointing season. The bullpen wasn’t without blame either. A year after having a fantastic season that caused many to include him among the league’s best relievers, Tony Pena put up numbers more along his career line (4.33 ERA, 80 hits in 72 IP). Adam Dunn was acquired in a trade late in the season to try and resurrect a struggling lineup and Conor Jackson was shifted to left field in an effort to replace Byrnes. These moves were made much too late, because in the end, Arizona missed out on the playoffs by just two games.
Now, Arizona did not make many moves this past offseason but there are still several reasons to like this club. First is that the improvements of Stephen Drew and Justin Upton are for real. Upton is just 21 meaning the sky is the limit and Drew will probably make the All-Star team. Although Chris Young’s batting average tanked last year his walk rate improved. Replacing the departed Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez should at least be able to play 150 games giving the lineup additional stability. If Eric Byrnes is able to play most of the season I think there will be a real offensive explosion in the desert. Also, Max Scherzer and Jon Garland join a rotation, which is arguably already the league’s best with Webb, Haren, and innings eater Doug Davis. Arizona is the rare case where just sitting back and letting the kids grow older represents a greater gain than any free agent move. Since the Dodger’s did little to improve this offseason, expect a dogfight for the division crown.
Likely opening day roster:
| Pos. | Name | Salary | How Acquired |
| C | Chris Snyder | $3 M | Drafted 2nd rd 2002 |
| C | Miguel Montero | $.401M | Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2001 |
| 1b | Conor Jackson | $3.05 M | Drafted #19 overall 2003 |
| 2b | Felipe Lopez | $3.5 M | Signed as FA 12/12/08 |
| 3b | Mark Reynolds | $.397M | Drafted 16th rd 2004 |
| SS | Stephen Drew | $1.5 M | Drafted #15 overall 2004 |
| LF | Eric Byrnes | $11 M | Signed as FA 12/27/05 |
| CF | Chris Young | $1.75 M | Acquired in trade w/ ChA 12/05 |
| RF | Justin Upton | $.393M | Drafted #1 overall 2005 |
| Inf | Chad Tracy | $4.75 M | Drafted 7th rd 2001 |
| Inf | Tony Clark | $.8M | Acquired in trade w/ SD 7/08. Resigned 2/09 |
| Inf | Augie Ojeda | $.712M | Signed as FA 12/07 |
| Of | Alex Romero | $.39 M | Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2002 |
| SP | Brandon Webb | $6.5 M | Drafted 8th rd 2000. Signed extension 1/06 |
| SP | Dan Haren | $5.5 M | Acquired in trade w/ Oak 12/07. Signed extension 8/5/08 |
| SP | Doug Davis | $8.75 M | Acquired in trade w/ Mil 11/25/06 |
| SP | Jon Garland | $6.25 M | Signed as FA 1/29/09 |
| SP | Max Scherzer | $1 M | Drafted #11 overall 2006 |
| Cl | Chad Qualls | $2.53M | Acquired in trade w/ Hou 12/07 |
| SU | Jon Rauch | $2 M | Acquired in trade w/ Was 7/22/08 |
| RP | Tom Gordon | $.5 M | Signed as FA 2/6/09 |
| RP | Scott Schoenweis | $3.6 M | Acquired in trade w/ NYM 12/12/08 |
| RP | Tony Pena | $.43 M | Signed as amateur FA from D.R. 2002 |
| RP | Yusmiero Petit | $.412M | Acquired in trade w/ Fla 3/07 |
| RP | Travis Blackley | $.405M | Signed as FA 12/19/08 |
Payroll obligations to former players: none
Say hello to: Scott Schoenweis, Felipe Lopez, Jon Garland, Tom Gordon
Wave goodbye: Connor Robertson, Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Lyon, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Juan Cruz
Rookies: none
Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Gerardo Parra
Potential breakout: Justin Upton, Stephen Drew
Welcome to Earth: I see no one on this team that is likely to decline. Maybe a bullpen guy?
Likely to rebound: Chris Young
Strengths: The best 1-2 punch of any rotation in the NL.
Weaknesses: Strikeouts. Reynolds whiffed 200 times last year and Young, Byrnes, Upton, and the combined at-bat total for the catchers are all a threat to swing and miss 150+ times.
Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):
CF Young R .248/.315/.443 22, 14 .258
SS Drew L .291/.333/.502 21, 3 .277
1B Jackson R .300/.376/.446 12, 10 .285
RF Upton R .250/.353/.463 15, 1 .272
3B Reynolds R .239/.320/.458 28, 11 .266
LF Byrnes R .209/.272/.369 6, 4 .219
C Snyder R/Montero L .272/.260
2B Lopez R .283/.343/.387 6, 8
Prediction: 1st place NL West. Lose in NLCS.
1 comment:
I didn't know Tom "Flash" Gordon was still around, that's awesome.
What did you think about my outfield arm rankings? I'm guessing I'm at least mostly off.
Bet you didn't like my mock of the Bills taking Oher? At least if they can resign Peters they won't have to think about it.
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