Breaking down the Royals-Rays trade

My friend and former blog contributor Taylor asked me to give my take on the trade. I thought it'd make a pretty nice blog post too so I've pasted what I said.

Ok, here's the deal:

Royals get James Shields (2 yrs $21 million) and Wade Davis (4 yrs, still pre-arbitration) plus a player to be named/cash.

Rays get: #1 prospect Wil Myers, middling prospect SP Mike Montgomery, SP prospect Jake Odirizzi, and 3B Patrick Leonard.

Let's start with the Rays. 

• Wil Myers should immediately start in RF for them. He is the #1 hitting prospect in baseball and even if he doesn't hit for a high average, he has good power and will be a very good player.  
• Jake Odorizzi was probably the first or second best pitching prospect for the Royals. They must not have much faith in him contributing right away or else he would not have been included in this deal.  Tampa probably gives him a shot to win the #5 starter spot in spring training with becoming a #3 starter being his eventual ceiling.
• Mike Montgomery was regarded as the Royals top pitching prospect two seasons ago but since then he's been pretty mediocre or hurt.  He's your classic throw in to a big trade like this where the acquiring team hopes a new coaching staff can help him out of his funk. Boom or bust here.
• Leonard could turn out to be a real steal. He's got a ton of power but right now has trouble making consistent contact.  However, he's only in low A ball and you can't really predict how he'll turn out. He's still too far away.
• Essentially Tampa knew they needed hitting help and had excess pitching so calling up the Royals for Myers is a move that makes too much sense.

Now for the Royals:

• James Shields is 31 years old and is an above average pitcher. He is not an ace. He can win 15+ games for  you and pitch 200+ innings. But remember, Tampa is a pitcher's park and the Rays had the best defense in the majors last year. Those definitely helped his numbers.  However, whose spot does he take in the rotation? Bruce Chen? He's a significant upgrade over what they had but he'll only be around for two years.
• Wade Davis is a guy who the Rays moved to the pen because he was really struggling as a starter. Apparently last year he ironed some things out and many people believe he deserves another shot as a starter. As a reliever he's very good and could work anywhere from long relief to closer.  As a starter he's probably a #4 guy at best - which isn't bad! #4 Starters get $8-12 million dollar contracts these days.
• This trade makes me think the Royals were really frustrated with their inability to trade or sign a front line starter this off-season.  Giving up Wil Myers isn't inherently bad; it's just that they gave up a lot with him for someone who is not an ace.  Now Jeff Francoeur is locked in as the starting RF for another season when it's possible just promoting Myers and cutting ties with Frenchy (the worst position player in the AL last season) would have yielded the same improvement as trading for a new starter.  That's the gut punch.
• The silver lining in all of this is that Wil Myers is not a slam dunk. No prospect is.  All the hype around him is speculative but I'm convinced he's already better than Jeff Francoeur. And with the AL Central a toss up every year the Royals struck while the iron is hot so they can actually try to win now for once.

2011 Trade Deadline - Big Moves

So, this afternoon is the trade deadline. I expect there will be a flurry of minor moves (relief pitchers) to happen around noon today but there have already been some big trades that I'll quickly recap below.

Phillies acquire Hunter Pence from Houston for prospects Jarred Cosart SP, Jonathan Singleton 1b, Josh Zeid RP, and PTBNL

This move was a bit of a surprise to me. Pence is a good player but that's all.  To obtain him Philadelphia gave up three of their top 25 prospects though none of them is a sure thing.  The part that makes this deal interesting is that Pence is likely to earn more than $10 million through arbitration next season and then will likely get even more than that in 2013.  Basically, he's about to get really expensive. Still, he's a good right-handed hitter and strong defender in right field who will help the Phillies.

Houston, in my opinion, could have done better. Yes, they got three good prospects but since Cosart and Singleton are still in A-ball there is still quite a bit of risk associated with them. I would have tried to get more of a sure thing when trading my best player.

Giants acquire OF Carlos Beltran NY Mets for SP Zack Wheeler and cash
The Giants offense has been absolutely putrid this season. Part of that is due to managment's misconception that Aubrey Huff represents an upgrade over top prospect Brandon Belt but it's also due to the fact that their offense just isn't any good.  Putting Beltran in the lineup gives this team an everyday hitter opponents will actually have to be wary of.

For a player who would be a free agent in a couple of months, the Mets did very well here. Plus, Beltran has a clause in his contract preventing any team from offering arbitration (thereby preventing the team from gaining compensation picks when he leaves as a FA). From the scouting reports I've read, Zack Wheeler is still very raw but his ceiling is that of an All-Star major leaguer.  Good haul for the Mets.

White Sox trade SP Edwin Jackson, 4C Mark Teahen to Toronto for RP Jason Frasor, SP Zach Stewart
Kenny Williams said he wanted to shed salary and he did ($7.2 million for Teahen this year!).  Edwin Jackson was having a good season but Mark Teahen has been a large disappointment since coming to Chicago.  In exchange the Sox receive a good reliever in Frasor and an intriguing prospect in Stewart. This is a pretty darn good trade for the Sox in my opinion.
After this trade was finalized the Blue Jays made another move:

Blue Jays trade SP Edwin Jackson, RP Mark Rzepczynski, RP Octavio Dotel, OF Corey Patterson to St. Louis for CF Colby Rasmus, RP Trever Miller, RP Brian Tallet, RP P.J. Walters

It's been no secret Tony LaRussa is not the biggest fan of Colby Rasmus. Why that is, I'm sure only the Cardinals organization knows. Additionally, the Cardinals rid themselves of a couple of relievers they weren't using and a prospect who is no longer one (Walters).  The return is just okay. Rzepczynski is a pretty effective lefty who can get guys out from both sides of the plate and is under team control until 2015. Octavio Dotel is decent against righties but shouldn't be counted on in the late innings. Why they took on Corey Patterson I have no idea. I guess he can spot start in center since Rasmus is gone.

I could write an essay on how well I think Toronto did in their two trades. Rasmus has a big fan in this blog, so I guess now we're big fans of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  Trever Miller and PJ Walters are not expected to play significant roles for the Jays and were likely just included because that's what it took to get this deal done.  Brian Tallet, when he comes off the DL, could have some value though. The amazing part is how they managed to get rid of Patterson since he wasn't even a rostered player in spring training. Now, he's been included in one of the biggest deals of the year.  In total Toronto traded four relief pitchers, a decent pitching prospect, and Patterson for Colby Rasmus and Tehean's contract. This took a lot of creativity and flexibility that not all GMs have. Great work by Anthopoulos.

Top 5 Prospects Who Could Move this Month

Yesterday I wrote about ten players who will likely be moved before this year's trade deadline.  In every deal that's made someone (or cash) needs to be going the other way, too.  Most contenders won't want to give up a piece of their core so prospects tend to make up the bulk of deadline deals. For many teams prospects are the preferred haul anyway.  Below I've listed a few prospects who are likely to be dealt in exchange for help in the final third of the season.

1. Jonathan Singleton 1B, Phillies
With Ryan Howard entrenched at first base for the next several seasons, it's possible the Phillies will look to move their top hitting prospect for some help. Singleton is no sure thing - he's still only 19 and in High A - but he's already shown a knack for taking ball four to go along with his line drive stroke.

2. Arodys Vizcaino/Randall Delgado/Mike Minor SP, Braves
If the Braves are able to acquire a key piece to their team they'll have to give up a good pitching prospect. Everyone should just assume Julio Teheran is untouchable so other teams should turn their focus to three other players rated as B+ or A- prospects.  Vizcaino has the highest ceiling but also has battled elbow and back issues. Delgado has the lowest ceiling of the three (he grades a 3rd starter in the majors) but is nearly a finished product and fared better than Teheran did in his cup of coffee.  Minor has better stuff than Delgado but doesn't have the injury history of Vizcaino. Plus he's already pitched a fair amount in the majors with success.

3. Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick OF, Red Sox
The Red Sox have never been shy about making a splash to help them get a World Series ring. Kalish once ranked as a top prospect but has battled nagging injuries preventing him from playing to his full potential.  Reddick, called to the majors over of Kalish, has really played well lately but many scouts still worry about his lack of plate discipline. Neither of these guys will likely turn into a star but both could bring home a solid left-handed reliever in a poor lefty market.

4. Tanner Scheppers P, Rangers
Scheppers is an enigma. He started off fantastically last season but once he moved to the starting rotation really struggled. He was then moved back to the bullpen where he continued to struggle. This season has been no different. His peripherals suggest a lower ERA than the 5.29 he's currently sporting. Somebody will see the giant P on his back (Potential) and target him in a deal with Texas.

5. Mat Gamel 4C, Brewers
Technically, Gamel's not a prospect. But he hasn't gotten a full time job yet thanks to all of his positions being blocked (Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee, Ryan Braun, and Cory Hart) by established major leaguers.  The Brewers don't have a lot to offer and with the Prince's impending free agency it is very likely they go all in. After all they did when they got Sabathia. Gamel is ready now though he'd be best utilized without his glove.

2011 Trade Deadline Primer

The All-Star game has come and gone meaning that now teams must redefine their goals for the season. Some teams have already nearly locked up a playoff spot (Phillies, Rangers) while others know they'll be sitting on their couch come October (Cubs, Astros).  The rest of the teams will spend the next couple of weeks evaluating their position before defining themselves as contenders or pretenders. During July these teams are also known as "buyers" and "sellers."  Many things determine whether a team will look to make a trade such as injury, salary dumps, or even depth. With the July 31st trade deadline rapidly approaching, here is a list of the ten players most likely to be traded.

1. Josh Willingham LF
Since the A's have disappointed and failed to meet the front office's expectations moves will be made. Willingham is a relatively inexpensive player who's only under contract for 2011. The A's will likely use their left field vacancy as an audition for younger players.
Strengths: Above average right-handed power bat with solid on-base skills
Weaknesses: Only an average defensive player with little speed
Cost to acquire: Small. Cash or medium prospect
Likelihood of being moved: 95%
Possible destinations: Philadelphia, Boston, San Francisco, Atlanta, Pittsburgh

2. Mike Adams RP
San Diego isn't fooling anyone this year and will definitely look for deals to help them in the future.  Mike Adams has been one of the top relievers in baseball since his move to San Diego in 2008 and with him due for a nice raise in the off-season expect the Padres to move him to a team searching for right-handed bullpen help.
Strengths: Excellent control, doesn't allow homers, high strike-out rate
Weaknesses: None really, but you can expect his ERA to rise if he is moved to a hitters park and/or a team with a poor defense.
Cost to acquire: Medium-High. One top prospect or two solid ones should do it though the Pads would prefer the former.
Likelihood of being moved: 85%
Possible destinations: Anywhere, but I've got my eye on Texas.

3. Wilson Betemit 3B
The once former top-prospect was on the verge of becoming a baseball vagabond until last season in Kansas City.  He's always had some pop but his defense became acceptable and he hit for a decent average for the first time since his Atlanta days.
Strengths: Switch hitter, positional versatility
Weaknesses: Often struggles vs. left-handed pitchers and can be overpowered by hard fastballs.
Cost to acquire: Low. The Royals recently called up 3B prospect Mike Moustakas so Betemit is back to being a bench player.
Likelihood of being moved: 80%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee

4. Carlos Beltran OF
Carlos Beltran is likely the best player that's readily available.  He missed large chunks of 2009 and 2010 due to knee injuries but he's back with a vengeance this season as he currently leads the National League in doubles.
Strengths: Good hitter from both sides of the plate, good power, excellent baserunner even though he no longer steals many bases, having a good season defensively as well
Weaknesses: No longer can play center field, potential knee issues
Cost to acquire: High. The Mets will want a grade A prospect and likely some salary relief from the $18.5 million Beltran is earning this season. Good players don't come cheap.
Likelihood of being moved: 70%
Possible destinations: Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland

5. Jamey Carroll INF
The Dodgers are out of it and-- thanks to their owner filing for bankruptcy-- in desperate need of salary relief.
Strengths: Solid utility player who can contribute offensively
Weaknesses: Stretched at shortstop, 12 career HR in over 1000 career games
Cost to acquire: Low. Carroll has appeal to several teams so his value will probably be driven up in the bidding process but salary relief is likely LA's number one demand
Likelihood of being moved: 67%
Possible destinations: Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago Sox, Braves, St. Louis

6. Tyler Clippard RP
Washington has shown real signs of growth this season and is realistically only a couple of seasons away from putting a playoff-caliber team on the field. Trading Clippard will help the team move in this direction.
Strengths: Stretched as a starter, Clippard has proven to be an excellent long man, situational man, or even late inning reliever.
Weaknesses: Can be prone to give up the gopher ball
Cost to acquire: Medium. While the Nats are actively shopping him, they'll likely be overwhelmed by an offer from some team. He's making the league minimum but is due for his first raise in arbitration this offseason.
Likelihood of being moved: 60%
Possible destinations: Atlanta, St. Louis, Yankees, Philadelphia, Arizona, Tampa

7. BJ Upton CF
While Tampa would be considered a contender by many, they're not against reshaping their team to improve themselves for next year as well. Upton's not having his best season and it might be a time for a change of scenery; the Rays may be ready to see him go.

Strengths: Elite speed, very good defensive player, at times has some serious pop
Weaknesses: Attitude and effort are questionable at times, susceptible to prolonged slumps
Cost to acquire: Medium. Tampa already has his replacement ready in AAA but they'll need something worthwhile to move him.
Likelihood of being moved: 50%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati

8. Jeremy Guthrie SP
Guthrie has been Baltimore's #1 starter the last few seasons more by default than by actual performance.  Still, he's durable and can eat up a lot of innings. Teams could do a lot worse.
Strengths: Excellent control, durable
Weaknesses: Gives up a lot of homers, struggles to put hitters away
Cost to acquire: Medium. A major league ready pitcher is a must though he doesn't have to be a future stud.
Likelihood of being moved: 45%
Possible destinations: Detroit, Arizona, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, St. Louis

9. Ivan Rodriguez C
Rodriguez is no longer the catcher he once was but he can still be an asset to a contender. Washington has been utilizing him in a back-up role all season to give their younger players more experience.
Strengths: Cannon arm, defensive master, experience and leadership
Weaknesses: His offensive skills have eroded greatly
Cost to acquire: Low. Lots of cash or a C+ prospect and cash might do it.
Likelihood of being moved: 40%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Yankees, Boston, Detroit

10. Ty Wigginton UT

Colorado has been ravaged by the injury bug this season to the extent that it's likely ended their playoff aspirations already.  Wigginton has been hitting well but really doesn't have a place to play everyday on this team. Look for him to be moved.
Strengths: Defensive versatility, good power, performs well as a bench player
Weaknesses: Has not had a good season batting average wise and is a crappy second baseman
Cost to acquire: Low. Any B prospect should be enough to pry Wigginton away.
Likelihood of being moved: 40%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit

Surprise Deal: Michael Bourn CF
I haven't heard Bourn's name mentioned in any rumors but this is a move that makes too much sense to me.  Houston is awful, awful, awful, and there are several teams out there who could use a good center fielder.
Strengths: Maybe the best defensive center fielder in baseball, excellent baserunner/stealer
Weaknesses: No power, doesn't hit for high average or have a high walk rate
Cost to acquire: Medium-High. He's not really on the market but a solid offer ought to get him. Two B prospects and a young major leaguer should be more than enough.
Likelihood of being moved: 33%
Possible destinations: Atlanta, Tampa, Boston, San Francisco, Detroit, Cleveland

Zack Greinke traded to Milwaukee

Zack Greinke was not only the best player on the Royals in 2009 but he was the best pitcher in the American League.  Last season he regressed significantly but was still good. After telling the Royals he no longer wanted to be there, nearly every team had a chance to get him.  After about a month of speculation, a winner emerged when the Milwaukee Brewers traded four players for Greinke. 

The breakdown is after the jump.

Another blockbuster!

When Roy Halladay is involved in a trade you expect a lot of players to be moving. But would you expect one of those to be Cliff Lee? Me neither. Let's break it down.

Philadelphia receives: Roy Halladay SP, Phillippe Aumont RHP, Tyson Gilles, Juan Ramirez RHP

Yes, the Phillies get Halladay (and his 3 year extension + club option for a 4th) but was it worth trading the only real prospects they had? Only time will tell. Halladay is a top five pitcher in baseball and moving to the National League should provide a nice bump to his stats. But trading Lee for him doesn't improve the team much as you might think. This trade was most likely initiated due to Lee's unwillingness for a discount as opposed to Halladay who just wants to play for a winner. If he stays healthy it's likely his performance boost will be enough to cause Halladay's name to be mentioned as a possible electee to Cooperstown.

Aumont is a prospect with a decent arm but really, I don't see him turning into much more than a #3 starter. It's also possible he ends up in the bullpen. The only thing I know about Gilles is that he's perhaps the fastest player in the minors. Another Michael Bourn perhaps? Juan Ramirez is another guy who has tons of "stuff" but no idea how to use it. He could end up anywhere from a dominant reliever to a guy who never makes it.

Seattle receives: Cliff Lee LHP

Cliff Lee, as we all know, is a former Cy Young Award winner who made the transition to the Junior League with no problems. He was also the best pitcher in October last season. How Seattle found a way to finagle themselves into this deal is beyond me, but they will love seeing Lee take the ball every fifth day right behind Felix. This team just got a lot better.

Toronto receives: Kyle Drabek SP, Travis d'Arnaud C, Michael Taylor OF

Toronto is getting some really nice prospects here but where's the major leaguer? If Toronto could've pulled in someone like Brandon Morrow or even Michael Saunders this would be a huge get. Unfortunately neither was included leaving the Jays to hope that these three prospects hit their projected ceilings.

I love Kyle Drabek as a starter and agreed with the Phillies last year when they refused to include him in any deal. I know my buddy Keith Law feels there's nothing special about him (he'll probably say as much in his trade analysis) but I humbly disagree. Michael Taylor is a monster of a prospect who would make their outfield sickening except for the fact they turned around and traded him to the A's (more on that below). Travis d'Arnaud is a solid catching prospect and could end up performing like a young Jason Kendall (without the speed) but I think that's a little optimistic. I'm wondering if including him allowed Philadelphia to gain some leverage in this trade considering Toronto didn't have a single catcher on their 40-man roster Sunday.

Later, Toronto traded Michael Taylor to the A's for 3b prospect Brett Wallace. I'm not sure I really understand this but let me take a gander. Brett Wallace is not a good defensive player and it's possible he won't be able to play the hot corner for long. He appears to have the ability to hit for high average but I'm not sure he'll ever be much of a power hitter. I think this is what motivated the A's to deal him. Wallace is ready for an extended look in spring training and I won't be surprised to see him start the year with Toronto in 2010.

For Oakland, Michael Taylor immediately becomes the best prospect in the system. The A's have several prospects who can hit but only one who hits for power. Oakland tends to be moderately difficult on power hitters and I don't know how well Taylor's power will translate to Oakland's home park, but perhaps management felt it translated better than Wallace's skills since Oakland is known for suppressing batting average.

Verdict:

Philadelphia gets a win for improving their team (although slightly) this season. I'm still on the fence on whether or not they will be improved in 2014 because of it.

Seattle, tell your fans to get excited. With the league's best defense and now an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, the Mariners have to be considered legitimate post season contenders. If they are able to shore up the bullpen then this team could be scary. Big win here.

Toronto gets some prospects I love but are missing the one major league player that allows me to say they get a win out of this deal. Instead they likely walk away getting a #2 starter whose had some history with injuries, a 3b who will hit for average, and a catching prospect who will be a solid but not spectacular starter.

3 Team Blockbuster: Is the winner who you think?

I'm only going to blog a short bit on this because the media is probably going to overly analyze it.

Yankees get: Curtis Granderson CF

Granderson is considered a superstar by many though that is inaccurate. He has decent pop, plays very good defense, and is still fleet of foot. The problem is his complete inability to hit left-handed pitching. A .600 OPS isn't going to get it done. I just heard someone on ESPN say that part of Granderson's appeal is his personality. He's a guy everyone will love talking to and can handle any media market. For once I agree with you, ESPN. Touche.

Diamondbacks get: Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson

Why Arizona felt the need to become involved in a trade like this is somewhat baffling. Trading five years of Scherzer for Edwin Jackson fresh off a career year is puzzling. The only thing that I can conjure up is that Arizona feels there's an excessive inherent injury risk associated with him. Despite failing miserably in 2008, Ian Kennedy is worth taking a flier on. Sure he flopped in New York the first time around but he could be a fine back-end starter in the JV league.

Tigers get: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, Austin Jackson

If you're going to trade your best and most marketable player you better get something good in return. Luckily for the Tigers it appears they did just that. Austin Jackson was the Yankees #1 prospect in 2009 and will be expected to immediately step in to fill Granderson's shoes. Scherzer could go one of two ways. He could figure things out and be one of the top starters in the AL or get moved to the bullpen and become a dominant reliever. Schlereth is probably going to end up in the bullpen also but should be an excellent reliever. He's still a prospect so if Detroit wants to give him another go as a starter you couldn't blame them. Phil Coke is a failed starter that should be a LOOGY in the pen.

Verdict: The Tigers are probably the big winners here. Picking up four players who can step in and help the team contend for a division crown for a combined 22 years is an impressive haul. The fact that the team is saving almost $15 million makes this a huge win for the franchise.

With free agents Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui questionable to return, the Yankees get the missing piece to their outfield while giving up only #1 prospect and fringe arm. The only negative is if Granderson's production begins to tail off as he ages, it could become a bit of an albatross. Either way I think this move propels them back to the World Series.

Arizona gets a solid mid-rotation starter who last season threw harder than everyone else in the AL and a finesse pitcher whose skills were once overrated. I don't think we'll be able to properly analyze this trade for the Diamondbacks for several years. I'm not ready to call them the big loser just yet, but it would not be surprising if they end up that way.

Cubs get Heilman

Earlier this week the Cubs and Mariners hooked up in another trade in which Seattle received a couple of guys who are out of options (they cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers) for Aaron Heilman.  Heilman has already been traded once this offseason as a piece in the JJ Putz trade.

Seattle gets a utility infielder in Ronny Cedeño who was passed by two other similar players in Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot in Chicago.  I personally feel he was given a sort of raw deal by the Cubs but that's an argument for another day.  What is evident is he has skills that offer an upgrade to what the Mariners are currently running out there in Yuniesky Betancourt (offense) and José Lopez (defense), the guys he'll be competing against in spring training.  

Garrett Olson is a guy who's really taken his lumps in the majors but is also worth taking a chance on.  Maybe he's learned how to pitch?  Going from a terrible defensive ball club in a hitters park to one that appears to be much improved defensively and in an extreme pitcher's park should give him a little more confidence.

These are the types of deals teams like Seattle need to make in order to find a core of players upon which they can build their next playoff run.

In losing Cedeño Chicago isn't really losing too much in that he was only a utility guy for them. The bigger question is who is replacing him?  With DeRosa being traded, second base appears to be a platoon situation between Fontenot and Aaron Miles.  It's a reach to think either of them would a decent defensive shortstop though.  It's doubtful the Cubs are satisfied with this alignment so picking up a decent defensive shortstop for the stretch run already seems likely (Andres Blanco is not the answer either).  

Heilman is an above average reliever who could really solidify their pen in the late innings.  However there's already rumblings about the Cubs letting him compete with Sean Marshall and Chad Gaudin for the fifth starter's role.  In November I said this about Heilman starting:

AHeilman is a disgruntled reliever who told the Mets to start him or trade him.  Well, Aaron, you got your wish.  If used as a starter it will be a disaster since he only has two decent pitches and a pretty significant platoon split.

Lucky for him and Cubs fans I don't think management is serious about this offer.  Granted we are talking about a fifth starter but 2 good innings of Heilman will be more important to the Cubs than 5 mediocre ones.

What this trade boils down to is the Clubs clearing out a roster space by trading two guys who are out of options and Seattle taking on those guys hoping to capitalize on their upside.

Blockbuster sends 12 packing

There was a pretty big trade last night.  As a Braves fan I'm sick and as a Cleveland supporter and a little befuddled.  Here's a quick rundown of each team's transaction starting with the middleman:

Cleveland sends OF Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle for RP Joe Smith and 2b Luis Valbuena 

Gutierrez represents a nice little lefty masher while playing good defense in both corners and center.  This past season was his first real chance to play everyday and he did not live up to expectations.  Cleveland already had Ben Francisco and Shin -Soo Choo so one had to move. I think Cleveland chose the right guy.  

Valbuena is a nice little gamble for 2b.  He gets on base at a fair clip and has some nice doubles power.  He's got the body of Carlos Baerga though, so if he doesn't stay in shape he might lose nearly all his value.

Joe Smith is a nifty sidearming righty that fits in well in a pen already stocked with goodies. Cleveland now has a situational righty to slide in late innings enabling Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt to keep their multi-inning roles.  Once Kerry Wood finalizes his deal this bullpen will be set.  It will also be the best in baseball.

Seattle traded RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, and OF Jeremy Reed to NY Mets and 2b Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for OF Endy Chavez, RHP Aaron Heilman, RHP prospect Maikel Cleto, 1b prospect Mike Carp, LHP Jason Vargas, OF Ezequiel Carrera, and OF Franklin Gutierrez.

The Mariners get a whopping seven players here.  I'll sort through as fast as I can.

Losing Putz means relatively little to a team that is not in contention.  Green was a nice reliever that had some value but he can be replaced also.

For Seattle Francisco is the guy that made this deal work.  He'll turn 26 in spring so his potential is just now starting to show.  Plays very good defense and is a superb baserunner.  There is some power potential but it seems likely he'll stay a doubles hitter accompanied by a lot of triples as long as his speed holds up.  It remains to be seen if he plays center or left but I have a feeling Seattle puts him in center to see if he can handle it (which he will).  As a fantasy player my eye is on him.

Endy Chavez should be used as a fourth outfielder since his hitting skills are weak at best.  He's another excellent defender who's probably best known for his catch in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS than anything else.

Aaron Heilman is a disgruntled reliever who told the Mets to start him or trade him.  Well, Aaron, you got your wish.  If used as a starter it will be a disaster since he only has two decent pitches and a pretty significant platoon split. Should ably fill the vacancy left by Sean Green.

Vargas is a bit of an enigma to me.  He destroyed the lower minors and showed loads of potential in AA, but once he hit AAA the wheels came off.  Maybe he can't hack it as a starter.  Some work with the pitching coaches should turn him into a valuable reliever.

Ezekiel Carrera is all wheels, Mike Carp looks like a lefty hitting Ryan Garko, and Maikel Cleto is only 19 so there's still time for him to turn into a dominating closer.  

NY Mets traded OF Endy Chavez, OF Ezequiel Carrera, RP Aaron Heilman, RP Maikel Cleto, LHP Jason Vargas, 1b Mike Carp, and to Seattle and RP Joe Smith to Cleveland for RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, and OF Jeremy Reed.

JJ Putz gives the Mets a dominating reliever (when healthy) that's actually better than KRod.  He has averaged more than 11 strikeouts per 9 innings over the last three seasons and, if memory serves me correctly, saved 35 consecutive games in 2007.  

Sean Green is a sinkerballing reliever whose biggest concern is that Luis Castillo remembers how to play defense.  Green has solid control and to use the ever popular phrase "a move to the National League can only help."

Jeremy Reed takes Endy Chavez's place as 4th outfielder/late inning defensive replacement.  This guy was a hot prospect but never developed power or mastered the strike zone.

Verdict:  Surprisingly, I really like what this deal does for the Indians.  The AL Central is a division completely up for grabs this season and little moves like this one might be difference makers.  Seattle gets to restock the the upper levels of their minor league system and gets to embark on a risk-free experiment known as Franklin Gutierrez.  But really, let's not fool ourselves.  The team with the biggest improvement from this trade is the Mets.  Reed and Green essentially replace two guys they were traded for (and are younger) while Putz improves them by 2-3 wins.  Maybe as much as 5 if you look at the guys he replaced.  As a Braves fan I just threw up a little.

  

Freel for Ramon Hernandez

I just wanted to say something quick about this trade.  The Reds are trading their last year of beer-bucket Freel for two years of a slightly overrated catcher.  Hernandez represent a stopgap for two years allowing Ryan Hanigan to learn while being the backup.  He can has some medium pop, average defense, but is clearly declining.  Basically he's just overpaid.

In Freel Baltimore receives a utility player who looks like he can play everyday until you try it.  He's always injured and when he's not he fades badly in the second half.  The fans will love his all-out play and his entertaining interviews but thoughts that he was acquired so the team can move Brian Roberts are misguided.

Baltimore also gets two "prospects" in this deal but I don't see them as being significant contributors.  

Verdict:  No winners or losers here as each team traded to fill a need.

Khalil Greene to St. Louis

Khalil Greene was traded to St. Louis last week for RHP Mark Worrell and a Player to be Named Later (PTBNL).

For St. Louis, running Greene out there everyday instead whichever inept utility infielder they were putting out there before represents a pretty nifty upgrade.  One might look at Greene's stats and see a guy that shouldn't be playing everyday but when not playing in Petco National Park Greene has posted an acceptable .270/.318/.484 line.  The real concern St. Louis fans should have is his how he'll adjust to his new surroundings.  Since going to school at Clemson, Greene has had the reputation of having a good glove.  Most defensive metrics rate him somewhere in the middle of the pack which is fine if he's hitting, but Busch stadium is nearly as tough on right handed power hitters as Petco so there is a bit of a risk his offense improves minimally.  

In Worrell San Diego gets a AAA side-arming relief pitcher with fly ball tendencies.  Petco seems to be the perfect place for a guy like this. Due to his side-arm delivery he'll probably always have trouble with lefties, but GM Kevin Towers always seems to pull someone off the scrap pile that works better than imagined so if he puts up a 3.60 ERA in 50 innings I won't be surprised.  Basically, though, this trade is a straight out salary dump (probably enabling the team to keep Peavy).  But what do they do for SS now?  

Verdict: This trade really concerns me.  With the John Moore (the owner of the Padres) going through a divorce, the team is up for sale and slashing payroll .  When trading your starting shortstop who's making $6.5 million (a real bargain) for a middle reliever and a PTBNL is considered a necessity, that's a problem.

Easy win for St. Louis.  Watch Greene hit 20 homers and hit 35 doubles for LaRussa because that's just the way things seem to work for him.

Vazquez to Braves for a Bag of Goodies

The White Sox traded Javier Vazquez  and Boone Logan to Atlanta for Brent Lillibridge and three prospects the other day.  I actually read Keith Law's take on this trade earlier today so Keith, if you're reading, I'm sorry for stealing some of your thunder.  Actually, it's what I get for not getting this post up earlier in the week. 

 

The Braves perspective:

The White Sox traded the man slated to be their number two starter this week.  Now, part of me wants to jump up and down because Atlanta finally has a competent pitcher besides Jair Jurrjens.  But part of me realizes that Vazquez is not the perennial all-star many had hoped while playing in Montreal but instead is a guy whose main value lies in pitching 200+ innings each year.  Typically a non-believer in "clutch", I think there's something to the notion that Vazquez struggles in pressure situations.  Is it a coincidence that his best years came pitching in empty stadiums in Montreal?  Or that his September ERA was 6.25?  Maybe, but at 2 yrs for $23 million Atlanta will try to find out.  Moving to the non-DH league should only help a pitcher, though, so in this Atlanta acquires a #3 type starter who ably eats up innings to save the fragile bullpen and if blessed with the "good Javy" gets someone capable of putting up low vote totals on the Cy Young ballot.

Boone Logan represents a throw-in.  He doesn't throw particularly hard and from what I've seen doesn't know what to do against righties so perhaps he could find some value as a LOOGY, giving the Braves three from which to choose (O'Flaherty, Ridgway, Logan).  If I had to pick I'd say O'Flaherty with Logan as a fallback.

White Sox:

SS Brent Lillibridge, 3b Jon Gilmore, LHP Santos Rodriguez, C Tyler Flowers

Brent Lillbridge is the name in the deal, but his performance has been underwhelming at the major league level.  He's essentially a singles hitter who plays good defense at shortstop with the added value of his ability to play third and center field.  This probably ends the chances that Juan Uribe and Pablo Ozuna have of coming back and may even enable Ozzie to come up with some creative lineups.

Jon Gilmore is a prospect who hit well in the  Sally League but is still young and could be seen as a replacement for Josh Fields at 3b in two or three years.  However, I don't see how he'll be an updgrade since he has little power and bad defense.

Santos Rodriguez is a lefty with major control problems but 45 strikeouts in 29 innings must've caused Kenny Williams to do a double take.  There's upside but I doubt he ever amounts to much.

The real guy in this trade is Tyler Flowers.  Flowers is a prospect who somehow managed to stick around while the Braves traded off a glut of catchers (McCann, Saltalamacchia, Clint Sammons, Max Ramirez, Brayan Pena) so that says something right there.  His defense remains a work in progress causing some scouts to suggest a move from behind the dish is inevitable, but I think his offense will cause the Sox to overlook his defensive deficiencies in a Piazza-esque sort of way if you wish.  And for a team who has put up with Pierzynski, why wouldn't they?  In fact Flowers should be ready to take over full time right when Pierzynski is given the wave good-bye in 2010.

Verdict:

The White Sox get a player that should provide a serious offensive impact whether at 1b, DH, or C.  Obviously this addition will be maximized if Flowers stays at catcher but for a team with aging stars, this is a very very good acquisition.  Lillibridge is a nice utility player with some speed but no pop and Gilmore could be a starting 3b but that is far enough a way that it's perhaps just wishful thinking.  In my opinion, Flowers ranks as the Sox #3 prospect and allows them to save a bucket full of change.

On Atlanta's side they get a player that has value but what's the difference in winning 83 games from 75?  That's all I see and frankly it frustrates me.  At least they didn't give up Kelly Johnson.  Advantage: White Sox.

Royals go Cuckoo for Coco Crisp

Earlier this week the Red Sox traded Coco Crisp to the Royals for RP Ramon Ramirez.  Kansas City, who had one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, has now traded two relievers this offseason.  Crisp was rumored to have been on the block all through last season but apparently was never traded because the Red Sox felt that they  needed safeguard in case Jacoby Ellsbury faltered and weren't being offered equal value for 2+ years of Crisp.  Now that he was finally moved let's see what each team is getting in the deal.

Boston

Ramirez is a right-handed relief pitcher who posted a 2.64 ERA in 71.1 IP last season.  Ramirez struck out 70 batters and walked 31.  Now these numbers look like Ramirez should be a closer candidate, but let's take a closer look to see if this still holds true.

Ramirez vs RHP .153/.244/.212 and vs LHP .300/.370/.375

This is an extreme split which shows us that last year's performance is not really sustainable unless used as  a ROOGY (righty one out guy).  His failure to neutralize lefties relegates him to a career as a middle reliever.

Kansas City

It turns out Coco Crisp is not the star many thought he would be while playing in Cleveland. What Crisp has developed into is someone who is likely to put up an OBP in the .340s with very good defense.  Two years ago he led the league in +/- whereas last year he was +3 (although he did battle leg injuries all season).  His true ability probably lies somewhere in between.   Either way he automatically becomes the best defensive player on the Royals and improves team OBP.  

Recap: Boston will maximize their team value if the acquisition of Ramirez does not push Justin Masterson to the rotation.  Leaving Masterson in the pen--who absolutely has the ability to pitch multiple innings-- will further enable the BoSox to use Ramirez correctly due to his extreme platoon split.  This trade also proves that Ellsbury is the man in center.  For a team like Boston these are good gambles to take.  A fourth outfielder is easy enough to find and solidifying their bullpen is something that could make the difference in an always tough AL East.

For Kansas City the need for everyday players was urgent.  Mark Teahen and Jose Guillen were not getting it done in the outfield corners.  Now one of them is on the trade block (I'm guessing for a relief pitcher) with DeJesus moving from center to take their spot.   Fans need to realize that Crisp is not a savior and will not make this team a contender by himself.  What he does do is improve the team in some of the smaller areas that needed definite improvement: defense, baserunning, and getting on base.

In each of his years as GM,  Dayton Moore has been able to build solid bullpens.  By making this trade he is admitting that he needs help in finding the every day guys.  

Realizing that dominant bullpens are luxuries contenders should enjoy, this is a trade the Royals needed to make.  

   

Verdict: Assuming Crisp's option for 2010 is picked up, I think the Royals win this trade.   

Swisher traded to Yankees

One word that you cannot use to describe Kenny Williams' off-season plans is predictable.

Today the Sox traded Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira to the Yankees for minor league pitchers Jeffrey Marquez, Jhonny Nunez, and INF Wilson Betemit.

First let's take a look some of the prospects involved in this deal*:

Jeffrey Marquez -14 GS, 80.2 IP, 93 H, 24 BB, 33 K, 4.69 ERA, 1.45 WHIP @ AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barr

Breaking down the #'s: The 24 yr old Marquez struck out  only 3.68/9IP(!) last season to go along with a 1.4 K:BB ratio.  Now the ratio is not bad in itself and it appears he has good control, but 3.68 K's per 9 in AAA? That is absurdly low.  His ERA is also deceiving as he allowed only 4.69 earned runs.  His actual runs per 9 (RAA) was 5.69.  That coupled with 10.38 hits/9 and we have the Carlos Silva of AAA.

Value: Nada

Jhonny Nunez - 34 G, 17 GS, 108.3 IP, 113 H, 33 BB, 116 K, 4.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP @ AA Potomac & Trenton

Breaking down the #'s: At first glance Nunez's line doesn't look overwhelming.  One should expect a 23 yr old to be putting up those numbers in AA.  The catch comes when you look what he did once moved to the bullpen.  In 13 games as a reliever in the Yankee system, Nunez posted a K rate of 11.2/9 and a 2.9:1 K:BB ratio.  That's impressive. ERA and WHIP are less significant for relievers due to the small sample of innings they pitch.  His peripheral stats look good, however, so it appears he may have found a successful role as a reliever.

Value: A big league reliever with the potential to pitch high-leverage innings.

Kanekoa Texeira - 51 G, 61 IP, 46 H, 21 BB, 60 K, 1.33 ERA @ A Wintson-Salem & AA Birmingham

Breaking down the #'s: The 1.33 ERA jumps out until you realize his RAA is 2.21.  Still not bad. A good K rate of 8.85/9 and only allowed 6.79 H/9.  That appears to be a little lucky especially with minor league defenses behind him. 

Value: If Texeira can maintain his K rate as he moves through the minors there could be some potential but he still has a long way to go. 

So what exactly are the Sox getting here?  

Betemit: Switch hitting, utility infielder who has an .814 OPS vs RHP over the last 3yrs 

Marquez: Possible mop-up man out of the bullpen (please no)

Nunez: Potential big-league reliever capable of pitching in the late innings.

And the Yankees:

Swisher: A switch-hitting, versatile OF in the prime of his career coming off his worst season.

Texeira: Young RP that might pan out as a low-leverage RP.

If I'm a White Sox fan I gotta scratch my head here.  Sure there was a logjam of 1b/DH/Corner OF with Konerko, Swish, Dye, Quentin, and Jim Thome, but didn't it work out ok last season?  Konerko and Thome don't exactly embody the standard on which good health should be judged and Swisher is still young, signed relatively cheaply, AND able to play CF.  The Sox are going to miss his OBP, his power, his defensive versatility, and quite possibly his personality.

If Swisher hits .250 next year this trade is going to be an easy win for the Yankees.