Power 16: February 10, 2012

Though Austin Rivers' 3-pointer won the game for the Blue Devils it's still not enough 
to earn them a 1 seed. There's still time. And seriously, what was Tyler Zeller thinking?

I held off making this week's Power 16 since there were so many intriguing games in the middle of the week. It paid off.  There's a lot of shuffling going on and while the top teams are starting to secure position the 3's and 4's are not even close to being settled. Check it out to see who moved up and who moved down.

1's	Record	RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Kentucky	24-1 (11-1)	3 / 74/ 5-1
Syracuse	24-1 (11-1)	1 /12 / 6-1
Ohio St.	21-3 (8-2)	4 /41 / 6-3
Missouri	22-2 (9-2)	9 /102 / 6-1

Kentucky continues to roll and unless they lose more than two times down the stretch a 1 seed is all locked up.  Syracuse held off a feisty Georgetown squad this week to stay atop the Big East.  They're in a dogfight with Kentucky for the top overall seed.  Ohio St. is 10-2 over their last 12 games and looks like they've got the Big Ten wrapped up. Missouri earns themselves the final 1 seed by currently sitting in first place in the Big 12. Wins over Kansas and Baylor help their cause.

Power 16: January 29, 2012

The Racers danced with excitement when I informed them of their inclusion
in my latest Power 16.  This is the type of reaction we like to see here at Sportstemps.

January's nearly over and there's still quite a bit of shuffling going on.  Syracuse finally lost, a third team entered the ACC title discussion (Florida St.), Wisconsin's back making the Big Ten more muddled than ever, and mid-majors are on the rise.  February is the most important month of the year since it's the last chance for teams to grab quality wins before the conference tournaments and mid-majors get to play in Bracket Busters.  This is also the month where the average fan who wants to win money in their bracket pools should begin to pay attention. Read on to see who's moved since the last Power 16.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 50
Syracuse	22-1 (9-1)	4-0
Kentucky	21-1 (7-0)	5-1
Ohio St.	18-3 (6-2)	4-3
North Carolina	17-3 (4-1)	4-3

Though Syracuse lost at Notre Dame, they still sit atop the Big East and are an impressive 4-0 against the RPI top 50 with three of those wins coming against top 25 teams.  Kentucky won a close one last weekend against Alabama and now have a commanding lead in the SEC.  Their only loss remains a one point defeat at Indiana making this team a lock for a 1 seed.  Don't look now but Ohio St. is officially on a roll - playing Nebraska and Penn St. helps - and are sitting in a first place tie with Michigan St. in the Big Ten. UNC moves into the 1's almost by default as Baylor continues to struggle with the best teams.

Power 16: January 18, 2012

Soph. Dion Waiters leads the Orange's excellent defense this season.
According to Kenpom.com Waiters ranks 3rd in the nation in steal % which
along with his teammates puts Syracuse first nationally in steal %. This team
has to be the favorite to cut down the nets in April.

It's been more than two weeks since I put out a Power 16 and there has been some shuffling.  Conference play is underway for everyone so we're starting to sort out the pretenders from the contenders.  At 2/3 of the way through the season, if your team hasn't started to put things together by now it's likely they will not.  Here's how we stand in the third week of January:

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Syracuse	20-0 (7-0)	Florida, Marquette, Stanford
Kentucky	18-1 (4-0)	Kansas, UNC, Louisville
Ohio St.	16-3 (4-2)	Duke, Florida, Indiana
Baylor	17-1 (4-1)	Kansas St., St. Mary's, BYU

Syracuse has been phenomenal.  At 20-0 they're one of only two undefeated teams remaining (Murray St.) and though the Big East is no cakewalk there are no teams that are on the same level with the Orange.  Kentucky will be tested vs. Alabama this weekend but with their only loss at Indiana they've got a firm grasp on a one seed.  Ohio St. is only 4-2 in conference play but has one of the best resumes of any team in the nation.  Plus Jared Sullinger is healthy and the committee will take that into consideration.  Baylor is a bit of an enigma.  They haven't played many top teams and their 18 point loss at Kansas raises some questions.

Power 16: Ringing in the New Year

What better way for the blog to celebrate the new year than with the first Power 16 of the college basketball season!  It's still early and only half the conferences have played a conference game but we're starting to see some separation at the top.  Remember, the Power 16 predicts which teams would earn protective seeds if the NCAA Tournament began today. 

Marquis Teague may be the best freshman
in the country.  He's also the starting PG for
the nation's best team. 

1's	Record	Top 3 Quality Wins
Kentucky	13-1 (0-0)	Kanas, UNC, Louisville
North Carolina	12-2 (0-0)	Michigan St., Wisconsin, Texas
Indiana	13-1 (1-1)	Kentucky, Ohio St., NC St.
Syracuse	14-0 (1-0)	Florida, Stanford, Seton Hall

Kentucky has been the best team this season; they own the best collection of quality wins and their only loss was suffered at IU.  I expect them to maintain their position all year.  North Carolina looks like another top tier team despite suffering a couple of losses (@UNLV, @Kentucky).  Their non-conference schedule was strong and boosts them to the #2 overall at this point. Indiana has home victories over both Kentucky and Ohio St.  They may not be able to sustain this level all year but they're pretty darn good and it will be a surprise if they lose at home this season.  Despite zero losses Syracuse sits at number four.  Going undefeated this long is impressive but it's slightly less impressive when you see they've only played one true road game, tied with Missouri for the fewest in the country.

January 23: Power 16

I've been slacking lately and haven't posted a Power 16 yet. Remember, this is not who I necessarily feel the top sixteen teams are but instead these are the sixteen teams that currently hold an inside track to receiving a protected seed (1-4) on Selection Sunday.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
Ohio St.	20-0 (7-0)	2-0
Duke	18-1 (5-1)	1-0
Pittsburgh	19-1 (7-0)	4-1
Kansas	18-1 (3-1)	1-1

Ohio St. continues to roll along, putting up the most impressive undefeated record thus far. Their big road win in Champaign over the weekend cements their spot as the #1 overall seed.  Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and shouldn't expect many difficult matchups along the way. They've edged their way back to #2 overall.  Pitt is possibly the best team in the Big East and is a serious National Title contender.  Kansas home loss to Texas drops them down two spots but they're still clinging to a number one seed.

Feb 14: Power 16

We're one week closer to March and while many teams have solidified themselves as contenders there's been some movement in the Power 16.

 Now that Evan Turner is back in the fold, Ohio St. should be 

considered a serious contender for the Final Four.

1. Kansas - Only Kansas St. has challenged the Jayhawks in conference play.  This team should cruise the rest of the way.  Chances of #1 overall seed: 80%
2. Kentucky - Tennessee played them tough at Rupp Arena last night but Kentucky is starting to silence the critics who claim there is too much youth on this team to take them seriously.  Odds of #1 seed in NCAA: 70%
3. Syracuse - Just when you thought the Orange were gaining on Kansas they lose at home to a bubble team. Ouch.  Still 24-2 is mighty impressive.  Play at Georgetown this week so the ride might get a bit bumpy.  Odds of #1 seed: 67%
4. Villanova - Sneaky win in Morgantown last Monday solidifies Villanova a notch above the next four.  If you like scoring you like Villanova basketball.  Odds of #1 seed: 50%
5. Purdue - Statement win in East Lansing shows these Boilers should be taken seriously.  A 5-1 record against the RPI top 25 makes them the most likely candidate to challenge for a #1 seed.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
6. Duke - Crushed the Terrapins yesterday.  There will be no challenger for the Duke's regular season title although they still have three road games left.  Odds of #1 seed: 30%
7. West Virginia - A bad week for the Mountaineers as they lost both at home to Villanova and at Pitt in a 3 OT thriller.  A loss this week may cost them #2 seed.
8. Kansas St. - A win over Iowa St. moved the Wildcats to 7-3 in Big 12 play.  They're now at the easier part of their schedule with the only game they should have much trouble in is a road game against the Jayhawks.  If they don't slip up beforehand, KSU may have locked up a 2 seed.
9. Michigan St. - This is where the rankings get fuzzy.  Lucas is back and so is the Spartans' mojo.  Indiana appears to be the unfortunate victim of MSU's renewed focus before Ohio St. comes to town Saturday.
10. Georgetown - Wildly inconsistent.  The Hoyas play extremely well against good teams yet have losses to Old Dominion, home to S. Florida, and now at Rutgers.  Expect a tight game in their first round match-up of the NCAA tournament.
11. Ohio St. - The win at Illinois should act as a wakeup call to everyone.  Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball and Ohio St. is an elite team when he plays.  If the Buckeyes defeat Purdue this week they'll vault into the #2 seed group.
12. New Mexico - Steve Alford has this team ready for the NCAA Tournament.  The Lobos had a couple of impressive road wins this week against UNLV and Utah.
13. Wisconsin - The home loss to Illinois was a bit of a shocker.  Still, Wisconsin is 9-4 in Big Ten play and completely annihilated the Hoosiers yesterday.
14. Brigham Young - There's no shame in losing on the road to UNLV but losing there shows the Cougars aren't unstoppable.  They may be a better team than New Mexico but we'll have to wait until the end of the month to prove it.
15. Vanderbilt - A complete trouncing of Tennessee keeps the Commodores in the Power 16.  Next Saturday's home match vs. Kentucky could be the game of the weekend.
16. Gonzaga - Sweeping the top three teams in the WCC moves the Zags into the Power 16 for the first time this year.  The WCC doesn't participate in Bracket Busters so the Zags next meaningful game won't take place until their conference tournament.  For now they need to continue to win to avoid slipping in the minds of the committee.

Also considered: Butler, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV

Jan 31: Power 16

What a crazy week in college basketball!  I am anxious to see Joe Lunardi's latest bracket tomorrow.  Here's how I have the top 16 this week:

School	Record	vs RPI top 25
Kansas	20-1 (6-0)	3-1
Syracuse	21-1 (8-1)	3-1
Villanova	19-1 (8-0)	1-1
Kentucky	20-1 (5-1)	1-0

 

It's pretty clear who the top four teams are now.  The only question is what order should they be ranked?  I think Kansas jumps back to the number one overall seed after a road victory at Kansas St.  Syracuse and Villanova hold at two and three respectively and Kentucky comes in at number four.  Kentucky may have the most talent but they currently have played the weakest schedule of these four teams and in my mind that drops them.

School	Record	vs RPI top 25
Michigan St.	19-3 (9-0)	1-1
West Virginia	17-3 (6-2)	0-2
Georgetown	16-4 (6-3)	4-2
Tennessee	16-4 (4-2)	1-2

 

Michigan St. currently sits as the top two seed.  If one of the number one's were to falter down the stretch (lose more than one game) the Spartans are the team that is most likely to capitalize.  Being undefeated in conference play means a lot.  West Virginia had a scare versus Louisville but held on for the victory.  The same for Tennessee against Florida after losing two in a row.  Georgetown leapfrogs into the twos after an impressive home victory over Duke.

School	Record	vs RPI top 25
Duke	17-4 (5-2)	1-3
Kansas St.	17-4 (4-3)	2-1
Purdue	18-3 (6-3)	4-1
BYU	21-2 (6-1)	0-1

 
The threes are where things get interesting.  Duke still only has one real road win and really played poorly at Georgetown.  Purdue seems to be back on track and gets the second three seed thanks to their 4-1 record against the top 25 in the ESPN RPI.  Kansas St. nearly knocked off the number one overall seed at home.  They're not penalized for that but move down because I feel I overrated them last week.  And an impressive BYU squad rounds earns the fourth spot to round out the threes.

School	Record	vs RPI top 25
Vanderbilt	16-4 (5-1)	1-1
Texas	18-3 (4-2)	2-1
Wisconsin	16-5 (6-3)	2-2
Ohio St.	16-6 (6-3)	3-3

Vanderbilt vaults into the rankings.  Although they looked overmatched at Kentucky, they are still 5-1 in conference and are really playing well.  Texas is really slipping.  With another loss they may fall out of the Power 16.   Wisconsin is holding steady but also is not doing anything special. Ohio St. gets the last four seed because they have only lost two times with Evan Turner in the lineup.  I still maintain the committee will take this into consideration when the final pairings are announced.

Also considered: Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor, Pittsburgh 

Jan 24: Power 16

There have been a few changes in the Power 16 since since the last version in early January.  Please remember this is not my power ranking or opinion for the top 25.  Instead this is my prediction and explanation for who I believe would be the top four seeds if the NCAA Tournament began today.  That being said, here's what I've got:

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
Kentucky	19-0 (4-0)	1-0
Kansas	18-1 (4-0)	1-1
Syracuse	19-1 (5-1)	1-1
Villanova	18-1 (7-0)	1-1

As long as Kentucky remains undefeated they will maintain their position as the number one overall seed.  The other three teams should be no surprise either as they only have one loss.  It’s possible one of these Big East teams could slip up with the tough conference schedule.

2's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
Texas	17-2 (3-1)	2-2
Michigan St.	17-3 (7-0)	2-1
Duke	16-3 (4-2)	3-1
Kansas St.	16-3 (3-2)	2-0

Despite Texas losing twice this week, I’ve got them at a two seed.  Losing on the road to Kansas St. and to UConn shouldn’t cause them to slip too much.  That being said another loss and they could slip all the way to a four seed.  Michigan St. has pretty much clinched a Big Ten championship and Duke is atop the ACC as well.  Duke might want to win another road game to help cement their status though.  KSt defeated Texas which vaults them up to a two seed.

3's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
West Virginia	15-3 (4-2)	0-2
Purdue	16-3 (4-3)	3-1
Tennessee	15-3 (3-1)	1-1
BYU	20-1 (5-0)	0-0

West Virginia’s win over Ohio St. should erase concerns over their legitimacy for the time being.  They’ll need to win some road games to maintain this seed.  Purdue lost three in a row earlier but seems to be back.  A 3-1 record vs. top 25 teams helps their ranking.  Tennessee seems to be holding up fine after losing some of the team due legal issues.  BYU might be the most under the radar team in the nation right now.  They’ve already won at San Diego St. and are looking at possibly only one or two conference losses.  I don’t think they’ll be able to move up much more, however.

4's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
Georgetown	15-3 (6-2)	4-1
Wisconsin	15-4 (5-2)	2-2
Pittsburgh	15-3 (5-1)	2-2
Ohio St.	14-6 (4-3)	2-3

Georgetown and Pitt have looked very impressive in Big East play.  Might they be challengers to Syracuse and Villanova?  Wisconsin needs to hang tough with the loss of Jon Leuer.  A trip to West Lafayette next week will tell a lot.  OSU has proven to be a different team now that Evan Turner is back.  It’s likely the committee will ignore their performance (4-4) while he was out with a back injury.