2014 MLB Team Preview: Chicago White Sox

Last season was one most Sox fans would like to forget.  The team finished dead last in the American League in runs scored and only led the rebuilding Marlins in all of baseball.  This was the major factor in the team losing 99 games and why many fans found the idea of watching the team far too painful a chore to endure.  Why did this team fall so far so fast when just the season before they won 85 games and nearly made the playoffs? It's simple, really: age and injuries.

The Sox made almost no moves going into last season meaning they were banking on the same roster from 2012 to win in 2013.  Obviously that didn't happen. At age 37 the good times finally stopped rolling for Paul Konerko who managed a sorry .244/.313/.355 with just 12 home runs.  Adam Dunn improved but then again, how could he not.  Catcher was a mess with Tyler Flowers disappointing and Alexei Ramirez's power dropped for the third straight year. Gavin Floyd got injured and only pitched five games.  With the team sinking fast in summer Alex Rios, Matt Thornton, and Jake Peavy were all unloaded for prospects. Still the team was locked into many contracts for another season making 2014 seemingly destined to be another horrible year.  But then general manager Rick Hahn went to work.

Now that Paulie's almost done, Abreu is the new face of the Sox.

With Konerko apparently washed up and now an unsigned free agent, and knowing that Adam Dunn a) can't play first worth a flip and b) is now a bad baseball player, the Sox went loco and signed 26 year old Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu to a six year deal worth $68 million.  The Southsiders are not shy about signing Cuban defectors as there are currently two on the team in Alexei Ramirez and Dayan "the Tank" Viciedo.  No one can be sure what to expect from Abreu but the Sox trust their scouts and believe in the translated statistics created by former Baseball Prospectus writer Clay Davenport. A month later the Sox re-signed Konerko to a one year deal to act as a bench player and platoon partner with Dunn.

In a seemingly minor move, Felipe Paulino was signed to an already seemingly full rotation.  I say seemingly because this signing allowed Hahn to make what could be the best move of his young GM career.  It was painfully obvious at the onset of the off-season that the Angels wanted to improve their rotation.  It was also obvious the Diamondbacks have a man-crush on Mark Trumbo.  After weeks of negotiating neither team had come to an agreement on how to help each other.  Enter Rick Hahn and his magic wand.  By sending fourth starter and Hector Santiago - who was a nice project for the team but perhaps coming off a career year - to the Angels, the Sox acquired a young, former highly regarded prospect in center fielder Adam Eaton from the Diamondbacks.  Is he a superstar? Heck no, but he stands to be an improvement and offers something almost no other Sox player has: potential. And to get this for a fourth starter who would now have to fight for a spot in the team's rotation is just a phenomenal piece of work.  Most critics agreed.

Hahn was not done. Smelling blood, Hahn called Arizona again.  Knowing that the acquisition of Trumbo meant someone was going to be crowded out of a job, Hahn offered his closer Addison Reed for top 100 prospect third baseman Matt Davidson.  It's entirely too early to say who will win this trade. Some evaluators believe Reed will be an elite closer one day and some evaluators aren't sold on Davidson being an every day third baseman.  But this is the type of risk the Sox need to be taking.  What's the point of having an upper echelon closer if you're only winning 75 games?  The front office rightly viewed Reed as a luxury and flipped him for something that could possibly grow into an asset.

The late season and winter moves do not make the White Sox contenders.  There are still too many holes on the roster for that to happen.  Instead what has happened is the team went from being abysmal and trying to come up with a rebuilding plan to actually being ahead of the curve on the rebuild.  Take a look at last season's lineup (ages in parenthesis) in comparison to this year's projected lineup:

2013	Pos		2014	Pos
Alejandro de Aza (29)	CF		Adam Eaton (25)	CF
Alexei Ramirez (31)	SS		Alexei Ramirez (32)	SS
Alex Rios (32)	RF		Avisail Garcia (23)	RF
Paul Konerko (37)	1B		Jose Abreu (26)	1B
Adam Dunn (33)	DH		Adam Dunn (34)	DH
Gordon Beckham (26)	2B		Gordon Beckham (27)	2B
Dayan Viciedo (24)	LF		Dayan Viciedo (25)	LF
Jeff Keppinger (33)	3B		Matt Davidson (23)	3B
Tyler Flowers (27)	C		Josh Phegley (25)	C
Average age	30.2		Average age	26.7

As you can see the 2013 lineup featured five players on the wrong side of 30 whereas the future lineup has just one - Adam Dunn who coincidentally is in the final year of his deal.  The White Sox went from being one of the older teams with very little upside to an intriguing group of players whose best years should be ahead of them.  What makes this even more exciting is that Garcia, Abreu, Davidson, and Eaton will all be cost and team controlled for the next five to six seasons so even if there is a flame out or two it's not going to hurt the team's flexibility financially.

I'm not trying to say the White Sox will win a World Series with this group of players.  I don't even see them cracking .500 this year.  But with several young players in the lineup and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball (Sale) only 25 himself, there is reason to be optimistic on the Southside. That's a lot better than what fans were saying last July.

2014 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 Warning: this is a lengthy post.

Last year I wrote a post detailing the Hall of Fame credentials of each candidate on the ballot using a system I devised called Hall of Fame Score (HOFSc).  I thought it worked well but I wasn't finished tweaking.  I messed around with the formula some more during the summer until I came up with something I think works better.  The main difference is now performance relative to the league has more weight than just WAR.

Craig Biggio was the odds on favorite to be elected last season but he only garnered 68% of the votes (75% is necessary) and therefore was not elected.  Now the ballot is gaining several other players who many feel are deserving of enshrinement including Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, and Curt Schilling.  These players plus the carryovers from last season make for one heck of a dilemma for voters.  If multiple players are not elected this time around it's conceivable in the near future there will be up to twenty players who are legitimate candidates.  Until the voters come to a consensus on how to treat the players who dabbled in PEDs (or those who are speculated to have done so) or until the Baseball Writers Association allows more than ten players to be selected on a ballot, we're going to have quite a mess on our hands.

Here's what the ballot looks like this time with their respective HOFSc:

Catchers - Avg/Median HOFSc = 74.00/75.15
Paul LoDuca (24.6): LoDuca had one really nice season with the Dodgers in 2001 where he batted .320/.374/.543.  He never matched those lofty numbers again but managed to stick around for another decade as a decent hitting catcher.

Mike Piazza (92.40): It's a bit of a shame Piazza didn't get in last season because now the ballot is filled with other great candidates. I think he'll get in next year but not this year.  My scoring system puts him fourth among catchers so there's no excuse for shutting him out for too long.

Trumbo Trade Helps Solidify The Los Angeles Angels As Contenders

The Los Angeles Angels have spent the last few seasons trying to buy a World Series title on the free agent market. Bringing in All-Stars like Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson have not yielded results so far, and a lot of that has to do with the team not being balanced enough. They were able to solidify their pitching staff a bit more this week, as they traded Mike Trumbo in a three-team deal with the Chicago White Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks that yielded Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs.

Losing Trumbo’s fantasybaseball value, especially from a power perspective, will obviously sting a little bit. However, the Angels are counting on bounce back seasons from Pujols and Hamilton, so that shouldn’t be a huge loss. After all, scoring runs is not the problem in Anaheim. Their issue has been reliable pitching after Jered Weaver, Wilson and Garrett Richards.

The pair of left-handers they picked up in this trade are young, talented and under team control at affordable salaries for a while. That is exactly what the doctor ordered for a team that has freely spent a lot of money in recent years. Santiago didn’t have the best season for the White Sox in 2013, but he will get more support with the Angels. Skaggs is the big prize here, as the Diamondbacks give up their top prospect from a year ago.

Even though Skaggs struggled in 2013 at AAA and the majors, his value is still pretty high. The Angels will more than likely give him a spot in the rotation right away, so he should have plenty of confidence going into the 2014 season.

Winning the American League West is without question the main goal for the Angels this upcoming season. If the pitching staff can hold up, they might finally be able to live up to the lofty expectations they have had these last few seasons. If both pitchers work out, this could be one of the biggest offseason moves for the franchise.

All Time All Stars - Cleveland Indians Pitchers

This is part of an on-going series in which I attempt to update the rosters from Sports Illustrated's All Time All Stars board game created in 1973.  My intention is to update the game so I can incorporate modern day stars with the All Time All Stars.

Here are the nine guys Sports Illustrated chose for the staff in 1973:

• Stan Coveleski SP
• Bob Feller SP
• Wes Ferrell SP
• Mike Garcia SP/RP
• Mel Harder SP/RP
• Addie Joss SP
• Bob Lemon SP
• Sam McDowell SP
• Early Wynn SP

This staff has a bit of everything.  An evenly divided staff of left-handers and right-handers gives this team supreme flexibility and if we're talking about how each guy pitched, well, you name it and they've got it. There's a spitballer (Coveleski), a junk baller (Ferrell), and a some guys

Those of you who think Nolan Ryan was one
of the greatest pitchers ever might want to
take a hard look at Mr. Feller here.

with serious heat (Feller, Garcia, McDowell).
The Indians pitching staff is a lot like that of the White Sox in that it's very deep.  There aren't as many Hall of Famers in a Cleveland uniform but the great pitchers in franchise history are not from the Dead Ball Era and thus we can relate to their stats much more easily. Still, there has to be room for improvement, right? As I see it seven of these guys are definite locks.  They're listed below.

Original Locks: Bob Feller, Early Wynn, Bob Lemon, Wes Ferrell, Stan Coveleski, Addie Joss, Mel Harder

Bob Feller is one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  He won 20 games six times and led the league in strikeouts seven times.  The Nolan Ryan of his generation except better in my opinion.  Early Wynn never had a season that jumps out to make you believe he was one of the greats.  Still, he won 300 games in his career which included five 20 win seasons.  He also led the league in strikeouts twice, and innings pitched three times. Wes Ferrell won 20 games six times including four in a row with the Indians.  He might be the best hitting pitcher of all time as well.  Due to WWII Lemon did not make his MLB debut until he was 25.  He still won 207 games with seven 20 win seasons.  He also made seven all star teams.  Coveleski won 20 games six times and retired with a .602 career winning percentage. He led the league in ERA twice and shutouts twice. Addie Joss didn't pitch long but he retired with the second best ERA of all time. Regarded as one of the smartest pitchers of his era, Joss never posted a losing record and his career WHIP is the best in MLB history.  Harder was a career Indian, winning all 223 of his games in a Cleveland uniform. He ranks first in games and third in pitcher WAR in team history.

New guys that are locks: None

There have been several pitchers who deserve consideration but none that stack up with the incredible talent already at hand. Below are the guys, who in my estimation, are the best of the rest.

Guys to consider:

• Tom Candiotti - The knuckleballer played for some terrible Indian teams but still managed to post a winning record.  Won 151 games in his career.
• Bartolo Colon - Had a .625 winning percentage with the Indians, the big guy just never seemed to take that next step to stardom. Won a Cy Young in 2001.
• Mike Garcia - Helped round out the great Indians staff of the 1940s and '50s that included Feller, Wynn, and Lemon.  He led the league in ERA twice and was a three time all star. 
• Cliff Lee - Struggled with consistency with the Indians but won the Cy Young his last year in town.  A four time all star.
• Sam McDowell - I don't really know how to describe McDowell. It's like he was part Randy Johnson (left handed, threw really hard) and part Mark Langston in that he was never as good as his stuff indicated he should be. Led the league in strikeouts five times and walks five times. Also made six all star teams and won 20 games once.
• Charles Nagy - Spent all but his final two games with Chief Wahoo on his hat.  Was the big game pitcher for the resurgent Indian teams of the 1990s.  A three time all star.
• CC Sabathia - I love Sabathia and that admiration only grew for what he accomplished with Milwaukee after he was traded away from the Indians. Had 20 complete games in a three year stretch and is probably the best bet of all active pitchers to win 300 games. He currently has 202.
• George Uhle - A forgotten man in history.  Won 20 games three times and in 1926 threw 32 complete games out of 36 starts. 

Pick a reliever:
Who is the best relief pitcher in Cleveland's history?  I honestly have no clue. Here's who I've narrowed it down to:

• Doug Jones - I think because he was able to hang around for a long time people forgot how good he was in the first half of his career.  Ranks second in Indians history in saves.
• Jose Mesa - Look what he did in 1995. Incredible. Saved 104 games in basically three seasons.
• Eric Plunk - I always laughed at his name when I was a kid but the man got people out. He was Mesa's primary set-up man in 1995 and was nearly as effective.  He never had the peak Mesa had but had a more consistent career.
• Bob Wickman - Probably not the best candidate but he was in town forever and had a few nice seasons. Franchise leader in saves for a career.

Ok, to recap we've got seven locks with three spots to go.  One must be a reliever and the other two will be out of the starting pitching group. The poll is up so go ahead and vote!

All Time All Stars - Cleveland Indians

This is part of an on-going series in which I attempt to update the rosters from Sports Illustrated's All Time All Stars board game created in 1973.  My intention is to update the game so I can incorporate modern day stars with the All Time All Stars.

The Cleveland Indians, like the other teams I've done thus far,  are one of the original eight American League franchises. In the 1990s they boasted perhaps baseball's best offense with the likes of Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome in the lineup.  Sadly they failed to win a World Series and free agency robbed them of their home grown talent.  Their history is filled with great players yet they've only won two championships and none since 1948. In fact the 1970s and 1980s were so bad the team posted only three seasons with winning records and none was good enough to enable them finish better than fourth.  There's a reason the movie makers picked the Cleveland Indians when making Major League. Still, as I said earlier, there are plenty of great players to choose from in this franchise's history. By my count there are seven Hall of Famers on Sports Illustrated's All Time All Star roster in 1973. Let's see how we can improve the team 40 years later.

Again, a reminder of the guidelines for choosing players:

• Each team must be composed of fifteen (15) position players and ten (10) pitchers.
• At least one pitcher must be a relief pitcher
• Each position must have at least two players on the roster who can capably fill it.  Think of this as having a starter and a backup. 
• At least one player chosen to represent a position must have played that position as their primary defensive position.  For instance, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth cannot be chosen as the only two representatives at first base since neither played there for the majority of their career.
• Players must have been active no earlier than 1901.  I chose 1901 since that was the first year of the American League.  We need a cutoff at some point and this seemed logical to me. If a player accumulated stats prior to 1901 (Cy Young for instance) these stats will be disregarded.
• To be eligible for a position a player must have played one full season as a starter there or 10% of his career games.  The same goes for starting and relieving.
• The team a player represents should be the one that makes the most sense for that player. For instance, Alex Rodriguez has played for three teams but he's played 300 more games as a Yankee than a Mariner. He won an MVP as a Yankee and has more career WAR as a Yankee.  Therefore, he's going to be on the Yankee roster.
• Batter handedness should not impact the players chosen.

Here we go...

All Time All Stars - Chicago White Sox Pitchers

This is part of an on-going series in which I attempt to update the rosters from Sports Illustrated's All Time All Stars board game created in 1973.  My intention is to update the game so I can incorporate modern day stars with the All Time All Stars.


The Yankees All Time All Stars have the greatest offense you can imagine with their star power of Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, DiMaggio, and Jeter. The Red Sox have an incredible rotation of Pedro, Clemens, and Cy Young.  The White Sox have neither the intimidating offense nor any of the top ten pitchers of all time. What they do have, however, is an incredible depth of pitching talent to go along with excellent defense up the middle.  One could not script a better pairing. Four Hall of Famers lead the staff while the other five all received recognition as being at or near the top of the list as the league's best pitchers. Below is the pitching staff Sports Illustrated selected for the original All Time All Stars roster in 1973.

• Eddie Cicotte SP
• Dick Donovan SP
• Red Faber SP
• Ted Lyons SP/RP
• Billy Pierce SP
• Ed Walsh SP/RP
• Doc White SP
• Hoyt Wilhelm RP
• Wilbur Wood RP

There are no bones to pick here and even if we weren't adding anyone this would be one of the deepest staffs in all of baseball. Faber, Lyons, Walsh, and Wilhelm are each Hall of Famers.  Cicotte very likely would have been had he not been kicked out of baseball for his role in the 1919 World Series.  Donovan, Pierce, White, and Wood are all very solid pitchers too.  Time to decide who sticks.

Original Locks: Ted Lyons, Ed Walsh, Red Faber, Eddie Cicotte, Billy Pierce, Hoyt Wilhelm, Wilbur Wood

Ted Lyons was an absolute monster and retired with 260 wins and an ERA of 3.67 despite pitching in the offensive rich "Babe Ruth" era.  Ed Walsh is the best pitcher in team history and his 145 career ERA+ ranks ninth all time.  Red Faber was not blamed for throwing the 1919 World Series enabling him to build an impressive career, winning 254 games.  Eddie Cicotte won 29 games threw 30 complete games in his penultimate season.  The knuckleballer was a borderline HOF candidate before he was banned for life. Billy Pierce was one of the best pitchers of the 1950s and made five straight all star teams in the decade.  Hoyt Wilhelm only pitched in Chicago six of his twenty one years but accumulated a 1.92 ERA as a member of the Sox. That's easily good enough to make this squad.  Wilbur Wood should be considered one of the greatest knuckleballers ever. He pitched an otherworldy 320+ innings four years in a row in the 1970s.  Prior to this he led the league in games finished three years in a row.  Never a Cy Young winner, he did finish in the top five three years in a row.

New guys that are locks: Mark Buehrle

As you can see Buehrle's super pumped he made the team. 

Buehrle, oh how I love thee.  He never won 20 games in a season and only struck out more than 150 batters one time. Despite this he was still a four time all star, won four gold gloves, and never failed to reach 200 innings pitched in a season. He just got the job done. Buehrle ranks sixth all time in pitcher WAR for the Sox.


While the Sox don't have the same name recognition as Boston, their staff is deeper and the bullpen is better. Buehrle is the eighth lock and we're carrying ten pitchers per team leaving two spots up for grabs. Here's who I believe the best pitchers are to complete the pitching staff.

Guys on the bubble:

• Tommy John (career: 288-231, 3.34, 111 ERA+ /with Sox: 82-80, 2.95, 117)- Pitched with the Sox before having his famous surgery. Seems like he pitched forever and was able to win 288 games. Led the league in winning percentage twice, shutouts twice, and while in Chicago had an ERA+ of 117.  
• Dick Donovan (122-99, 3.67, 104 / 73-50, 3.41, 113) -  Donovan averaged more than 10 complete games a season in Chicago. He led the league in winning percentage, complete games, shutouts, ERA, and WHIP at various points in his career. He was a three time all star.
• Doc White (189-156, 2.39, 113 / 159-123, 2.30, 114) - Doc White was able to put up some ridiculous ERAs even for the Dead Ball Era.  He led the league in victories in 1907 with 27 and displayed excellent control throughout his career. He ranks in the top 10 in Sox history with 34.7 pitcher WAR.
• Keith Foulke (41-37, 3.33, 140 / 18-19, 2.87, 166) - Keith Foulke saved 100 games for the Sox yet few outside of Chicago acknowledged his dominance.  He had an ERA+ over 200 three times and was the best reliever in the American League not named Mariano Rivera from 1998-2004. 
• Roberto Hernandez (67-71, 3.45, 131 / 29-24, 2.87, 153) - He's probably still pitching in Puerto Rico or somewhere.  As a member of the White Sox was absolutely dominant as a late inning reliever. The Sox used him justly as he led the league in games finished three times and once again in Tampa.  A two time all star, his career numbers take a bit of a hit since he stuck around forever even as his fastball was no longer his best pitch.
• Bobby Thigpen (31-36, 3.43, 119 / 28-33, 3.26, 125) - Thigpen spent eight years in Chicago and twice led the league in games finished. He also set the single season saves record that stood for nearly 30 years. That was truly an exceptional season for him and he had a couple of other decent seasons but was a below average reliever the second half of his career.
• Jack McDowell (127-87, 3.85, 111 / 91-58, 3.50, 117) - Black Jack was an excellent pitcher for a brief time. He won the 1993 Cy Young Award and finished second in 1992.  He also led the league in complete games three times and made three straight all star teams. His post-White Sox career was unimpressive as he struggled with injuries that eventually led to his retirement. He also plays a mean guitar. Rock on, Jack. Rock on.

There's a lot to choose from here and I'll have to think pretty hard about this before I cast my own vote. Please vote for the two pitchers you feel should make the team in the poll located on the upper right-hand side of the homepage.

Update: The two players selected in the poll are Jack McDowell and Tommy John. Two solid picks.

All Time All Stars - Chicago White Sox

This is part of an on-going series in which I attempt to update the rosters from Sports Illustrated's All Time All Stars board game created in 1973.  My intention is to update the game so I can incorporate modern day stars with the All Time All Stars.

The Chicago White Sox are one of the original eight American League franchises yet their history is not necessarily one to make fans proud.  Their World Series drought of 88 years is rivaled only by the Red Sox in American League lore (still better than the Cubs!).  It's sad when a team's most well known moment is dark, nonetheless that's the way it is for Chicago's Southside club. Several franchise greats were on the 1919 squad and eight were banned.  Guilty or not, they are eligible for this team, which is a good thing when you consider the state of the Sox best hitters throughout their history.

Again, a reminder of the guidelines for choosing players:

• Each team must be composed of fifteen (15) position players and ten (10) pitchers.
• At least one pitcher must be a relief pitcher
• Each position must have at least two players on the roster who can capably fill it.  Think of this as having a starter and a backup. 
• At least one player chosen to represent a position must have played that position as their primary defensive position.  For instance, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth cannot be chosen as the only two representatives at first base since neither played there for the majority of their career.
• Players must have been active no earlier than 1901.  I chose 1901 since that was the first year of the American League.  We need a cutoff at some point and this seemed logical to me. If a player accumulated stats prior to 1901 (Cy Young for instance) these stats will be disregarded.
• To be eligible for a position a player must have played one full season as a starter there or 10% of his career games.  The same goes for starting and relieving.
• The team a player represents should be the one that makes the most sense for that player. For instance, Alex Rodriguez has played for three teams but he's played 300 more games as a Yankee than a Mariner. He won an MVP as a Yankee and has more career WAR as a Yankee.  Therefore, he's going to be on the Yankee roster.
• Batter handedness should not impact the players chosen.

Here we go...

All Time All Stars - Red Sox Pitchers

Imagine an All Time All Stars World Series of Boston vs. New York.  The Yankees would trot Ruth, Gehrig, and Mantle out there everyday.  That's some pretty scary stuff and most teams would probably acknowledge that they have little chance in competing with the greatest offensive force ever seen. Well, the Red Sox are one team that would not be intimidated.  Ted Williams didn't take crap from anybody and at first glance the pitching staff seems quite strong.  I can just picture Roger Clemens and Pedro giving the boys in pinstripes the middle finger as they strut to the mound. Those guys were tough sons of guns who didn't shy away in the heat of the moment. Let's take a look at who was on this team when SI published the game in 1973.

Is this the greatest pitcher of all time?

• Ray Culp SP
• Bill Dinneen SP
• Joe Dobson SP
• Ellis Kinder RP
• Dutch Leonard SP
• Carl Mays SP
• Mel Parnell SP
• Joe Wood SP
• Cy Young SP

This was just an okay staff. Cy Young might be the greatest pitcher of all time while Smoky Joe Wood and Dutch Leonard had a few excellent seasons but it pretty much ends there.  Teams are going to have to do better if they want to hang with the Yankees.  Luckily, with Roger Clemens and Pedro coming on board it's about to get scary good in the rotation.

Original Locks: Cy Young, Smoky Joe Wood, Ellis Kinder, Dutch Leonard

Cy Young is a no brainer.  Joe Wood had a great run from 1911-1915 that make him a cinch as well. Leonard was Wood's teammate and may have been even better.  Kinder is the best reliever in team history in my opinion.  In 1949 he led the league in complete game shutouts and two years later led the league in saves while accumulating 5.1 WAR.  

New guys that are locks: Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant, Tim Wakefield,

With the retention of Cy Young, this rotation is now possibly the best in the game. Roger Clemens can also be included in the conversation as greatest pitcher ever and he has the hardware to prove it by putting 7 Cy Young Awards on his mantle.  Pedro Martinez's 1999 and 2000 seasons might be the greatest back to back years ever.  He averaged 20-5 with a 1.90 ERA in the steroid era.  His ERA+ for those two combined seasons is 265!  That's two hundred and sixty five percent better than the league average.  Luis Tiant won 20 games three times and led the league in ERA once.  And Tim Wakefield is the franchise leader in innings pitched and is third in wins.  Gotta have the knuckler in there.

If the Red Sox were to set a rotation I think it'd go Young, Clemens, Martinez, Tiant.  Wow.

Just like with the Yankees we've got eight locks out of ten spots. Below are who I believe are the best candidates for the final two spots.

Guys on the bubble:

• Josh Beckett - The ace on the Sox second championship team, Beckett has had moments of brilliance cuopled with injuries. In 2007 he was fantastic and led the league in wins with 20.
• Joe Dobson - Dobson pitched 1500+ innings in Beantown and won 106 games.  Both rank in the 10 ten in team history.
• Derek Lowe - Lowe bounced from starting and relieving, finding success in each role. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2002 and his ERA+ was 127 as a member of the Red Sox.
• Carl Mays - Mays played for four different franchises and none of them really scream at me as the obvious choice.  He ranks highly in several categories including having the sixth best career ERA among Red Sox pitchers so I'll put him here. 
• Mel Parnell - Won 20+ games twice including 25 in 1949.  Parnell only pitched ten years but managed to accumulate the 8th most WAR in team history.
• Jonathan Papelbon - Love him or hate him the man was pretty dominant as a closer for the BoSox.  Made four all star teams and saved 322 games in Boston.
• Bob Stanley - Stanley was a multi-inning reliever who pitched really well for nine straight seasons until 1986.  He ranks eighth in wins, second in saves, and first in games pitched in team history.
• Babe Ruth - Ruth's not going to make this team because he's already a Yankee but he would be a candidate otherwise.  

Vote for the two pitchers you feel should make the team in the poll located on the upper right-hand side of the homepage.

Updated poll results: Jonathan Papelbon was the top vote getter with Mel Parnell second. These two will be added to Boston's staff.

All Time All Stars - Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox franchise is one of the greatest in the sport.  There are several Hall of Famers from Ted Williams to Cy Young who wear the Boston "B" on their bust in Cooperstown.  Yet, despite this the team went nearly 90 years between championships.  How does this happen?  I'm not even sure but fans will be excited to see some of the improvements the franchise has made since their original roster was created. As a refresher, below are the guidelines for choosing each team's roster.

• Each team must be composed of fifteen (15) position players and ten (10) pitchers.
• At least one pitcher must be a relief pitcher
• Each position must have at least two players on the roster who can capably fill it.  Think of this as having a starter and a backup. 
• At least one player chosen to represent a position must have played that position as their primary defensive position.  For instance, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth cannot be chosen as the only two representatives at first base since neither played there for the majority of their career.
• Players must have been active no earlier than 1901.  I chose 1901 since that was the first year of the American League.  We need a cutoff at some point and this seemed logical to me. If a player accumulated stats prior to 1901 (Cy Young for instance) these stats will be disregarded.
• To be eligible for a position a player must have played one full season as a starter there or 10% of his career games.  The same goes for starting and relieving.
• The team a player represents should be the one that makes the most sense for that player. For instance, Alex Rodriguez has played for three teams but he's played 300 more games as a Yankee than a Mariner. He won an MVP as a Yankee and has more career WAR as a Yankee.  Therefore, he's going to be on the Yankee roster.
• Batter handedness should not impact the players chosen.

Here we go...

All Time All Stars - Yankees pitchers

In the previous post I went over the All Time All Star roster for the Yankees.  The original lineup had sixteen hitters and nine pitchers. Per the new rules, I'm changing the dynamics a bit for the new rosters so we'll be adding a pitcher this time around. This is what the pitching staff looked like in the original game:

The greatest Yankee hurler of them all.

• Jack Chesbro SP
• Whitey Ford SP
• Lefty Gomez SP
• Waite Hoyt SP/RP
• Ed Lopat SP
• Herb Pennock SP
• Allie Reynolds SP/RP
• Red Ruffing SP
• Bob Shawkey SP

This is a pretty good bunch but I know more than a couple of these guys will be bumped off since the Yankees have had two mini dynasties in the last forty years. Plus we need to add at least one full time reliever (I wonder who that could be?).  Below I've broken down the pitchers into three distinct groups. 

Original Locks: Whitey Ford, Lefty Gomez, Red Ruffing, Waite Hoyt

All four of these guys are Hall of Famers and all but Hoyt rank in the top four in career wins in a Yankee uniform. Hoyt pitched in 365 games in a Yankee uniform and was a member of six World Series teams.

New guys that are locks: Mariano Rivera (RP), Goose Gossage (RP), Andy Pettitte, Ron Guidry

Rivera is not only the greatest reliever of all time, he's also the greatest Yankee pitcher of all time. Gossage is another HOF reliever and easily makes this team.  Andy Pettitte is third all time in Yankee wins with Guidry fifth. This leaves two spots open.

Guys on the bubble:

• Sparky Lyle (RP) - Lyle was one of the first great full time relief pitchers. Like Gossage, he was used as a multi-inning reliever and his 35 saves in 1972 were the second most ever recorded in a single season. He also won the 1977 AL Cy Young award.
• Jack Chesbro - Happy Jack set the single season record for wins as a Yankee (41) in 1904 that still stands today. Went 128-93 as a Yankee with an ERA+ of 109 (9% better than league average).  
• Allie Reynolds - Superchief excelled as a swingman late in his career. In 1952 he led the league in ERA and shutouts while also earning six saves.  He made five all star teams.
• Herb Pennock - Pennock was the ace of the Ruth teams in the 1920's. In eleven years he went 162-90 with an ERA+ of 114. He was inducted into the HOF in 1948.
• Bob Shawkey - Shawkey ranks 7th all time in WAR as a Yankee pitcher. He won 20 games five times and led the league in ERA once. His ERA + in pinstripes is 117.
• Mel Stottlemyre - I'm surprised Mel didn't make the original team but he was a member of some mediocre Yankee squads. He won 20 games three times but also led the league in losses twice. His ERA+ as a Yankee is 112 and he's 8th in team history in pitcher WAR.

I'll put a poll up on the home page. Pick the two pitchers you feel should make the team.

Updated poll results: Herb Pennock and Jack Chesbro were the top two vote getters thus earning the final two spots on the Yankee pitching staff.

All Time All Stars - NY Yankees

Before the days of Nintendo, kids (and adults) had to find ways to entertain themselves during the rainy days of summer and the cold days of winter. In the 1970's my dad and uncle gravitated to two specific games.  Sports Illustrated created a board game for college football and for Major League Baseball.  The MLB version had two formats: the single season and the All Time All Stars.  The single season games were nice but playing as the All Time All Stars could be really fun.  Imagine how cool it was to play as the Yankees.  Try building a lineup where you get to include Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle. Joe DiMaggio too. Yogi Berra! Well, a lot of time has passed since SI put out this game and I've begun doing a little exercise where I update the rosters for each team and maybe even add the expansion teams.
I started with the Yankees and for roster spots that I'm having trouble with I'll put a poll up asking for input.  The guidelines for roster construction are:

• Each team must be composed of fifteen (15) position players and ten (10) pitchers.
• At least one pitcher must be a relief pitcher
• Each position must have at least two players on the roster who can capably fill it.  Think of this as having a starter and a backup. 
• At least one player chosen to represent a position must have played that position as their primary defensive position.  For instance, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth cannot be chosen as the only two representatives at first base since neither played there for the majority of their career.
• Players must have been active no earlier than 1901.  I chose 1901 since that was the first year of the American League.  We need a cutoff at some point and this seemed logical to me. If a player accumulated stats prior to 1901 (Cy Young for instance) these stats will be disregarded.
• To be eligible for a position a player must have played one full season as a starter there or 10% of his career games.  The same goes for starting and relieving.
• The team a player represents should be the one that makes the most sense for that player. For instance, Alex Rodriguez has played for three teams but he's played 300 more games as a Yankee than a Mariner. He won an MVP as a Yankee and has more career WAR as a Yankee.  Therefore, he's going to be on the Yankee roster.
• Batter handedness should not impact the players chosen.

With those guidelines set, let's get started.

2013 MLB HOF Ballot (Pitchers)

 








Last week I took a look at the hitters so now I'll examine the case for the pitchers on the ballot. While I'll agree my system isn't perfect for starting pitchers, I do believe it's close. I'll work on giving it some tweaks during the year in hopes I can perfect it.

Starting Pitchers - Avg HOFSc = 57.76
Roger Clemens (105.65): You can make an argument that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher of all time.  He won seven Cy Young Awards (most), led the league in ERA seven times, strikeouts five times, shutouts six times, and even won an MVP award. His HOFSc of 105.65 just edges out Cy Young (105.35) for the highest ever.  He ranks second all time in career WAR and third for peak. I think we can all agree Roger Clemens was a great pitcher and would be a lock if not for his performance enhancers.  I think he'll get in eventually but I'm not sure how long he'll have to wait.

Jack Morris (44.25): Here we go again. Jack Morris was a good pitcher but every time I evaluate him he falls short of Hall of Fame status.  He won twenty games twice and threw an incredible game in the 1991 World Series.  He also led the league in wild pitches six times.

Aaron Sele (30.70): Sele's an interesting story. When he came to the majors he was seen as the heir apparent to Roger Clemens by Red Sox Nation. When he pitched he was brilliant but injuries kept him off the field quite a bit. I guess management became frustrated by this and traded him to Texas where he promptly won 19 games.  The next two years were both excellent but then his career as an effective major league starting pitcher was pretty much over although he held on to a job for seven more seasons.

David Wells (47.05): Wells was a bit of a journeyman pitcher in the mid 90s until he stumbled upon the Yankees. Once there his career really took off. He set a new career high in wins with 16 in 1997 and threw a perfect game. In 1998 he led the American League in winning percentage by going 18-4. Over the next six seasons he won 76 games and was a legitimate #1 starter. Unfortunately it took him too long to become a productive pitcher though he did manage to hang around until he was 44. A fun character but not quite a hall of famer.

Woody Williams (17.80): Woody Williams made his major league debut in 1993 but it took him until he was in his mid 30s to become an above average pitcher.  By then he was nearly done. He pitched one World Series game and made one all-star team.

Relief Pitchers - Avg HOFSc = 24.18
Roberto Hernandez (13.75): Roberto Hernandez usurped Bobby Thigpen as the White Sox closer in 1992 and held on to the job until the White Flag Trade in 1997.  Despite closing games thru 2002, his days as a shut down reliever ended in 1999 or 2000.

Jose Mesa (13.00): Mesa made his major league debut in 1987 as a starting pitcher and in six games had an ERA over 6.00.  The Orioles then banished him to the minors until 1990 when he came up and made seven starts.  He spent three more seasons as a starter including one in Cleveland before the Indians decided enough was enough and converted him to a closer. What a good decision. In 1995 and 1997 he helped solidify the bullpen of two World Series teams.  After posting a 6.52 ERA with the Phillies in 2003, his career seemed to be over.  Somehow he got another chance in 2004 and was very good again.  He was a good reliever for a long time.

Lee Smith (23.6): While I was growing up, Lee Smith was considered a great closer because everyone assumed he would set the career saves record. He did but I was never convinced he was a great closer (especially when he gave up that home run to Fred McGriff in the all-star game).  Turns out he'd fit right in with the relievers in the Hall of Fame. Personally, I think only two relievers in the hall deserve to be there but that's beside the point. If Smith gets in it won't be a big deal. I'm just not sure he will.

Mike Stanton (11.80): Mike Stanton is second all time in games pitched. The problem with his candidacy is that in 1178 games pitched he threw 1114 innings. Essentially a LOOGY for the majority of his career, Stanton was able to pitch for 19 seasons. I'm not saying LOOGY's are dumb, in fact he's probably the best ever. I just don't see how one can be a legitimate hall of fame candidate.  I'm sure he's a nice guy though.

My Hypothetical Ballot
Each year a voter can vote for up to ten (10) players on their ballot.  Most years I feel only three or four are deserving but there's starting to be some serious back log due to the writers newfound morality.  If I had a vote I'd vote for ten players this time around. Here's my ballot:

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Jeff Bagwell
• Mike Piazza
• Craig Biggio
• Mark McGwire
• Larry Walker
• Tim Raines
• Alan Trammell
• Edgar Martinez

2013 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 


Each year I do a Keltner List of someone whose Hall of Fame credentials need further examination. I haven't done one this year in part because I've been working on something bigger.  This "project" took up considerable time but I think I'm ready to utilize it now. This is good because it's just in time for the Hall of Fame ballot results to be announced.

There are two ways to build a hall of fame case: a long productive career with many good seasons or a strong peak that puts a player among the elite at their position.  Obviously some players did both but many more players failed to do either.  I've created a ranking system called Hall of Fame Score (HOFSc) which is pretty similar to Baseball Prospectus' JAWS.  HOFSc relies upon WAR values whereas BP uses WARP. So let's review each player's candidacy with my new little toy.

Catchers - Avg HOFSc = 45.5
Sandy Alomar, Jr. (15.0): Sandy was an average catcher who hung around for a long time.  He was the 1990 AL Rookie of the Year and played in two World Series with Cleveland.  He was nothing special as a player but seems he had other non-quantifiable virtues that made him a guy teams wanted to have on their team.

Mike Piazza (57.15): Perhaps the greatest offensive catcher of all time, Piazza should be a lock for the Hall.  I have him ranked as the fifth greatest catcher of all time, just behind Yogi Berra.  There are rumors Piazza was a PED user though I've never seen anything concrete in that regard.

Breaking down the Royals-Rays trade

My friend and former blog contributor Taylor asked me to give my take on the trade. I thought it'd make a pretty nice blog post too so I've pasted what I said.

Ok, here's the deal:

Royals get James Shields (2 yrs $21 million) and Wade Davis (4 yrs, still pre-arbitration) plus a player to be named/cash.

Rays get: #1 prospect Wil Myers, middling prospect SP Mike Montgomery, SP prospect Jake Odirizzi, and 3B Patrick Leonard.

Let's start with the Rays. 

• Wil Myers should immediately start in RF for them. He is the #1 hitting prospect in baseball and even if he doesn't hit for a high average, he has good power and will be a very good player.  
• Jake Odorizzi was probably the first or second best pitching prospect for the Royals. They must not have much faith in him contributing right away or else he would not have been included in this deal.  Tampa probably gives him a shot to win the #5 starter spot in spring training with becoming a #3 starter being his eventual ceiling.
• Mike Montgomery was regarded as the Royals top pitching prospect two seasons ago but since then he's been pretty mediocre or hurt.  He's your classic throw in to a big trade like this where the acquiring team hopes a new coaching staff can help him out of his funk. Boom or bust here.
• Leonard could turn out to be a real steal. He's got a ton of power but right now has trouble making consistent contact.  However, he's only in low A ball and you can't really predict how he'll turn out. He's still too far away.
• Essentially Tampa knew they needed hitting help and had excess pitching so calling up the Royals for Myers is a move that makes too much sense.

Now for the Royals:

• James Shields is 31 years old and is an above average pitcher. He is not an ace. He can win 15+ games for  you and pitch 200+ innings. But remember, Tampa is a pitcher's park and the Rays had the best defense in the majors last year. Those definitely helped his numbers.  However, whose spot does he take in the rotation? Bruce Chen? He's a significant upgrade over what they had but he'll only be around for two years.
• Wade Davis is a guy who the Rays moved to the pen because he was really struggling as a starter. Apparently last year he ironed some things out and many people believe he deserves another shot as a starter. As a reliever he's very good and could work anywhere from long relief to closer.  As a starter he's probably a #4 guy at best - which isn't bad! #4 Starters get $8-12 million dollar contracts these days.
• This trade makes me think the Royals were really frustrated with their inability to trade or sign a front line starter this off-season.  Giving up Wil Myers isn't inherently bad; it's just that they gave up a lot with him for someone who is not an ace.  Now Jeff Francoeur is locked in as the starting RF for another season when it's possible just promoting Myers and cutting ties with Frenchy (the worst position player in the AL last season) would have yielded the same improvement as trading for a new starter.  That's the gut punch.
• The silver lining in all of this is that Wil Myers is not a slam dunk. No prospect is.  All the hype around him is speculative but I'm convinced he's already better than Jeff Francoeur. And with the AL Central a toss up every year the Royals struck while the iron is hot so they can actually try to win now for once.

Who will be the next 300 game winner?

Recently I was listening to a Phillies game on the radio and I heard the announcers talking about how Roy Halladay stands a good shot at winning 300 games and if he does how he'll possibly be the last to do so for a long time. Later Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com blogged about the statement too.  They were right in acknowledging that he's had great durability and that durability will need to continue as he ages if he's to have any chance.  Pitching for the Phillies right now doesn't hurt either since they've been one of baseball's most consistently good teams in the past half decade.

As much as I'm impressed by him I don't believe Roy Halladay has the best chance of winning 300 games of active pitchers. I do believe the next 300 game winner is active, however.  I've often mentioned to friends that I thought CC Sabathia had a real shot of winning 300 after he signed with the Yankees three years ago and this little exercise will give me the opportunity to compare him side by side with Halladay.

First off, here's a little breakdown of every pitcher who's had a shot of winning 300 games since 1980:

		Total Wins	Wins before turning 30	Wins after 30	Age at 300th Win	Age of Final Win	Date of 300th Win
Randy Johnson		303	64	239	45	46	6/4/09
Tom Glavine		305	124	181	41	42	8/5/07
Greg Maddux		355	151	204	38	42	8/7/04
Roger Clemens		354	146	208	40	44	6/13/03
Nolan Ryan		324	122	202	43	46	7/31/90
Tom Seaver		311	146	165	40	41	8/4/85
Don Sutton		324	139	185	41	43	6/18/86
Phil Niekro		318	31	287	46	48	10/6/85
Steve Carlton		329	133	196	38	43	9/23/83
Gaylord Perry		314	58	256	43	44	5/6/82
Tommy John		297	98	199	N/A	46	N/A
Bert Blyleven		287	156	131	N/A	41	N/A
Ferguson Jenkins		284	135	149	N/A	40	N/A

The first thing that stands out is that every 300 game winner has pitched into their 40's and with the exceptions of Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux they've needed to in order to get the milestone.  Another important thing to note is how important it is to be successful in your twenties.  Unless a pitcher can continue pitching until he's 45 he'll need to earn about 120 wins in his twenties to have a realistic shot.  One thing that's not noted in the chart but should be pointed out is that durability is extremely important.  Missing a season can easily set you back enough so that 300 wins is just enough out of reach that a team won't be willing to sign an aging hurler with fading skills.  With that being said here are the best candidates among active pitchers for reaching 300 wins:

		Age	Wins	Wins/Yr	Wins before 30	Wins Needed	Wins/Yr Until 41*
Jamie Moyer		49	269	14	34	31	N/A
Roy Halladay		35	192	17	99	108	18.0
Tim Hudson		36	183	16	101	117	23.4
CC Sabathia		31	181	17	172	119	11.9
Mark Buehrle		33	164	14	122	136	17.0
Roy Oswalt		34	159	16	111	141	20.1
J. Verlander		29	111	18	111	189	15.8
Dan Haren		31	108	14	101	192	19.2
F. Hernandez		26	88	14	88	212	14.1
Jered Weaver		29	87	16	87	213	17.8
Zack Greinke		28	80	12	80	220	16.9
Cole Hamels		28	79	14	79	221	17.0
Tim Lincecum		28	71	15	71	229	17.6
C. Kershaw		24	50	14	50	250	14.7

*Note: I'm using the age of 41 because the average age of players earning their 300th win in the first table is 41.5

Injury and crappy bullpens have cost Tim Hudson more wins than I care to count.

• How amazing is Jamie Moyer?  He only earned 34 wins prior to his 30th birthday and now has 269 on his resume.  Sure he's 49 but what a remarkable career.  This may be his final season as he's coming off Tommy John surgery and is not as effective as he was pre-surgery (when he was 47).  
• Roy Halladay is second on the list with 192 career victories.  If he's to get 300 wins he'll need to average 18 wins a year over the next six seasons.  That's tough but not impossible, especially with the way he's been pitching the last few seasons.
• Tim Hudson is hurt here thanks to losing half of 2008 and all but seven starts worth of 2009 to injury.  I don't have data available but I willing to bet he led the majors in wins blown by bullpen from 2000-2010.  
• Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt have roughly the same shot in my opinion. Buehrle's been plagued by slipping effectiveness while Oswalt has trouble staying healthy.  The odds are stacked against them.
• Justin Verlander is a tricky one to put odds on.  He is absolutely the best pitcher in the American League right now and is extremely durable (look at those innings pitched numbers over the past five seasons: 201, 201, 240, 224, 250).  I'd like his odds better if I believed he'll still be pitching when he's 40.
• Haren is a bit of a late bloomer. He's just now entering his prime and his odds can really improve with a couple more good seasons.
• Weaver, Lincecum, Greinke, and Hamels are all in the same boat. They're young and have a long way to go.  Six years ago Barry Zito would have been in their age group but he had 102 wins so be careful when making projections.
• Clayton Kershaw is a really interesting case.  At just 24 years old he's already 16% of the way there.  Last year's Cy Young Award winner is just too far away to project with any certainty.  An injury could derail him but he's so good that if he doesn't lose too much effectiveness it would only be a minor setback.  He's a fun one to watch.

After factoring in age and career wins presented in the table above, it's clear to me CC Sabathia has an excellent chance at reaching 300 wins.  Roy Halladay is the guy closest with a reasonable chance which is probably why he's the one being talked about most. After CC and Hallday, Felix Hernandez has probably a one in three shot since he's still only 26 and may have 100 career victories by the end of this season.  Everyone else is still too young or too far away to take seriously.  When some of these guys reach 200 wins then we can talk.