2012 MLB Preview: NL West

The National League West is the division that seems to get less coverage than any other.  This may be because the Dodgers have been mediocre of late, the Rockies play in a smaller market, the late start times, or all of the above.  This is all too bad because there were some impressive performances in this division last season.  Ian Kennedy and Clayton Kershaw tied for the league lead with 21 wins apiece -Kershaw actually won the triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) title.  Matt Kemp nearly won the hitter's triple crown, failing to win only the batting title where he finished third.  Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most impressive talents in baseball and last season put up his third straight season of 5 wins above replacement. There is a lot of individual talent but the depth of each team's rosters is lacking.  No team should run away from another and whoever finishes in last place may only be 10 games back giving each intradivisional matchup meaning.  That's good for baseball.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2011 Record: 94-68

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $72.9 million
Highest Paid Player: Stephen Drew - $7.75 million
Best Player: Justin Upton was expected to be a superstar when he broke through to the majors at age 19. Last season he seemed to put it together by hitting 31 homers and finishing with a .289/.369/.529 line.
Best Pitcher: Ian Kennedy had his breakthrough season last year going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Say Hello To: Lyle Overbay 1B, Trevor Cahill SP, Craig Breslow RP, Takashi Saito RP, Jason Kubel OF, Mike Jacobs 1B, Cody Ransom 3B, Craig Tatum C
Wave Goodbye: Xavier Nady OF, Jason Marquis SP,  Zach Duke SP (Hou), Collin Cowgill OF (Oak), Jarrod Parker SP (Oak), Ryan Cook RP (Oak), Micah Owings P (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is this team the 2010-11 Padres? Oh no, they're much better than that.  The Padres won the division in 2010 due to an incredible bullpen, defense, and a ton of luck.  The Dbacks have some real talent on the roster and won't collapse like the Padres did last season.

2. Who's the biggest wild card on this team?  Stephen Drew's health is paramount. Willie Bloomquist is not a good enough player to have in the lineup everyday and while Drew may not have lived up to his hype, he's still a solid major league shortstop.  The longer the club is without him the tougher it will be to overtake the Giants.

3. Is Ian Kennedy the type of pitcher to build around long term? It's too soon to say although last season's results were pretty remarkable.  If he performs close to that level again this season Arizona should be working their butts off to keep him around. 

Expectations: The team traded for Oakland's #2 starter in the offseason in an effort to bolster their own rotation and signed Jason Kubel to be the left-handed side of their platoon in left field.  This team should compete and has a very good chance to get back to the playoffs.

Arizona traded for groundball machine Trevor Cahill to
improve a rotation and enhance their attempts to win now.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bloomquist SS

2. Hill 2B

3. Upton RF

4. Montero C
5. Young CF

6. Kubel LF

7. Roberts 3B

8. Goldschmidt 1B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Kennedy
2. Hudson
3. Cahill
4. Collmenter
5. Saunders

CL: Putz

2012 MLB Preview: AL East

Every year there is talk about how baseball should approach realignment to make it more fair for the other teams in the American League East division.  "Who can compete when you've got teams tripling the payroll of the other teams?" they say.  The Yankees and Red Sox are two of the most successful teams in baseball right now and it's no coincidence that they're the two big spenders, too. But frugal Tampa Bay has had success right along with them of late and looks to be there again this season as well.  Now Toronto's rebuild is beginning to bear fruit and after finishing with a winning record last season, the team looks to take the next step with some exciting young players.  Baltimore is in the middle of what seems like a never ending rebuilding process but there are beginning to be signs of changes for the positive.  All of these factors make this a division to watch this summer.  The Yankees and Red Sox are not invulnerable meaning maybe it's someone else's time for a change.  This should end all that nonsense about "fairness" and realignment.

Baltimore Orioles

2011 Record: 69-93

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $97 million
Highest Paid Player: Nick Markakis - $12 million
Best Player: Catcher Matt Wieters broke out last season but I believe the best is yet to come.
Best Pitcher: Jake Arrieta gets the nod over Brian Matusz here simply because of how awful Matusz was last season.
Say Hello To: Darren O'Day RP, Taylor Teagarden C, Endy Chavez OF, Jai Miller OF, Wilson Betemit 3B, Armando Galarraga SP, Ronny Paulino C, Jason Hammel SP, Matt Lindstrom RP, Nick Johnson 1B
Wave Goodbye: Craig Tatum RP (Hou), Vladimir Guerrero (Japan), Cesar Izturis SS (Mil), Luke Scott DH (TB), Jo-Jo Reyes SP (Pit), Jeremy Guthrie SP (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. What is the organizational plan? The team believes by abstaining from big name free agents and allocating that money to player development through the draft and via international signees they'll be able to build a better foundation that will allow for prolonged success.  The only problem with this method is it takes a long time to see results.

2. Is Brian Matusz's career as an effective big leaguer over? That's a little harsh but there are reasons to be concerned. Whispers about work ethic may not be unfounded but the bigger question is why did his velocity and command slip so much last season? If he posts another year like 2011 he'll go from elite prospect to bust in less than two years.

3. What's the latest on Brian Roberts' health?  In May of last season Roberts hit his head sliding into first base and suffered a severe concussion.  He missed the rest of the season and has not participated in live games in spring training.  The team is likely optimistic he'll play soon since they put him on the 15 day DL and not the 60 day DL.

Expectations: It's going to be another losing season thanks to being in a stacked division.  If the young pitchers can take a step forward there will be reason for optimism, otherwise the team will be going backwards - not a good sign when you're already in last place.

Matt Wieters is another example of how it often takes a catcher
 longer than the average hitter to develop his offensive skills.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Reimold LF

2. Johnson DH

3. Markakis RF

4. Jones CF
5. Wieters C

6. Hardy SS

7. Reynolds 3B

8. Davis 1B
9. Andino 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Arrieta
2. Hammel
3. Chen
4. Hunter
5. Matusz

CL: Johnson

2010 MLB predictions

Despite my best efforts, I was unable to complete a team capsule for each team prior to the start of the season.  I'll continue to do team capsules when I have time although they will be abbreviated versions now that the season is upon us.  Instead of waiting until mid May for my predictions, I'll give them now.

Division winners:
AL East - Yankees
AL Central - Twins
AL West - Rangers
Wild Card - Rays

NL East - Phillies
NL Central - Cardinals
NL West - Rockies
Wild Card - Braves

World Series - Yankees over Rockies

AL MVP - Mark Teixeira.  Runners up: Evan Longoria, Grady Sizemore, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP - Albert Pujols. Runners up: Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Matt Holliday

AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez. Runners up: CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay. Runners up: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Johan Santana

AL Top Rookies - Brian Matusz, Scott Sizemore, Carlos Santana
NL Top Rookies - Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Alcides Escobar

AL Breakout Player - Adam Jones
NL Breakout Player - Colby Rasmus

AL Breakout Pitcher - Gavin Floyd or Rick Porcello
NL Breakout Pitcher - Mat Latos

Season Preview: Florida Marlins

2008 Record: 84-77  .522

Run differential: +3 (8^th)

2008 payroll: $21,811,500

2008 represented yet another season in which the kids in the south sun exceeded all expectations.  Finishing with a winning record despite trading away their two best known players in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis is yet another testament to GM Larry Beinfest. Having the lowest payroll in the majors is not considered a handicap to this organization.  Instead it gives them an excuse to play minor leaguers who are ready for The Show.  When these players start to get expensive they are shipped off like Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham were this past offseason.  The catch is these guys aren’t stars but instead are cheaper than the alternatives in other organizations.  Even getting something for Kevin Gregg and Mike Jacobs who were candidates to be non-tendered is impressive.

2009 appears to be much like 2008 for the Fish.  Expectations are low, payroll is even lower, but the talent is here.  The organization even locked up Hanley Ramirez, who is arguably the best player in baseball, to a long-term contract. Plans for a new stadium finally appear to be in the works also.  There is no guarantee this will increase revenue for the franchise but you can bet that ownership is banking on it.  With the pipeline of young talent showing no signs of drying up and their best player locked in for several years, it would be foolish to bet against this team having an awful season.  The continuation of smart management decisions coupled with the growth of young players, could allow this franchise be building the next mini-dynasty.  It’s just up to ownership and the fans in Miami to determine how long it lasts.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	John Baker	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 3/07
C	Ronny Paulino	$.44 M	Acquired in trade w/ SF 3/28/09
1b	Jorge Cantu	$3.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ TB 7/07
2b	Dan Uggla	$5.35M	Selected in Rule V draft '05.
3b	Emilio Bonifacio	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 11/08
SS	Hanley Ramirez	$5.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 11/05. Signed extension 5/08
LF	Jeremy Hermida	$2.25M	Drafted #11 overall 2002
CF	Cameron Maybin	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 12/07
RF	Cody Ross	$2.25M	Contract purchased from Cin 5/2006
Inf	West Helms	$1.9 M	Acquired in trade w/ Phi 4/08. Signed extension 10/08
Inf	Andy Gonzalez	$.39M	Signed as FA 1/13/09
Of	Ross Gload	$1.9 M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 4/09
UT	Alfredo Amezaga	$1.3 M	Claimed off waivers from Col 4/05
SP	Ricky Nolasco	$2.4 M	Drafted #11 overall 2002
SP	Josh Johnson	$1.4 M	Drafted 4th rd 2002
SP	Chris Volstad	$.4 M	Drafted #16 overall 2005
SP	Anibal Sanchez	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 11/05
SP	Andrew Miller	$5.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 12/07
Cl	Matt Lindstrom	$.41 M	Acquired in trade w/ NYM 11/06
SU	Leo Nunez	$.415M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 10/08
RP	Scott Proctor	$.75M	Signed as FA 1/5/08
RP	Renyel Pinto	$.404M	Acquired in trade w/ ChC 12/7/05
RP	Logan Kensing	$.66 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2003
RP	Dan Meyer	$.4 M	Claimed off waivers from Oak 11/08
RP	Hayden Penn	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bal 4/1/09

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Say hello to: Ross Gload, Emilio Bonifacio, Wes Helms, Hayden Penn, Dan Meyer, Leo Nunez, Ronny Paulino, Jose Ceda

Wave goodbye: Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Arthur Rhodes, Matt Treanor, Mark Hednrickson, Joe Nelson, Sergio Mitre

Rookies: Emilio Bonifacio, Gaby Sanchez, Cameron Maybin

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Kiko Calero

Potential breakout: Cameron Maybin

Welcome to Earth: Chris Volstad, Jorge Cantú

Likely to rebound: Hanley Ramirez (kidding), Josh Johnson, Jeremy Hermida

Strengths: There is a lot of power in this lineup

Weaknesses: Infield defense is iffy unless last season’s improvements from Ramirez and Uggla were for real

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

3b Bonifacio B  .248/.305/.344  0, 6  .231

LF Hermida L  .249/.323/.406  17, 6  .260

SS Ramirez R  .301/.400/.540  33, 35  .324

2b Uggla R  .260/.360/.514  32, 5  .299

1b Cantú R  .277/.327/.481  29, 6  .280

CF Maybin R

Rf Ross R  .260/.316/.488  22, 6  .280

C Baker L  .299/.392/.447  5, 0  .301

Prediction: 4th place NL East.

 

Season Preview: Arizona Diambondbacks

2008 Record: 82-80  .506

Run differential: +14 (7^th)

2008 payroll: $66,202,712

On May 1^st Arizona was 20-8 and had outscored its opponents by 56 runs.  Justin Upton looked like the next Ken Griffey Jr. and the trade for Dan Haren solidified a rotation that appeared to be the best in the league.  Shortly thereafter the offense went to sleep.  Chris Young only managed to hit .248, Eric Byrnes severely injured both hamstrings to the point where his future may be in question, and Chad Tracy had another disappointing season.  The bullpen wasn’t without blame either.  A year after having a fantastic season that caused many to include him among the league’s best relievers, Tony Pena put up numbers more along his career line (4.33 ERA, 80 hits in 72 IP).  Adam Dunn was acquired in a trade late in the season to try and resurrect a struggling lineup and Conor Jackson was shifted to left field in an effort to replace Byrnes.  These moves were made much too late, because in the end, Arizona missed out on the playoffs by just two games.

Now, Arizona did not make many moves this past offseason but there are still several reasons to like this club.  First is that the improvements of Stephen Drew and Justin Upton are for real. Upton is just 21 meaning the sky is the limit and Drew will probably make the All-Star team.  Although Chris Young’s batting average tanked last year his walk rate improved.  Replacing the departed Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez should at least be able to play 150 games giving the lineup additional stability.  If Eric Byrnes is able to play most of the season I think there will be a real offensive explosion in the desert.  Also, Max Scherzer and Jon Garland join a rotation, which is arguably already the league’s best with Webb, Haren, and innings eater Doug Davis.  Arizona is the rare case where just sitting back and letting the kids grow older represents a  greater gain than any free agent move.  Since the Dodger’s did little to improve this offseason, expect a dogfight for the division crown.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Chris Snyder	$3 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2002
C	Miguel Montero	$.401M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2001
1b	Conor Jackson	$3.05 M	Drafted #19 overall 2003
2b	Felipe Lopez	$3.5 M	Signed as FA 12/12/08
3b	Mark Reynolds	$.397M	Drafted 16th rd 2004
SS	Stephen Drew	$1.5 M	Drafted #15 overall 2004
LF	Eric Byrnes	$11 M	Signed as FA 12/27/05
CF	Chris Young	$1.75 M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 12/05
RF	Justin Upton	$.393M	Drafted #1 overall 2005
Inf	Chad Tracy	$4.75 M	Drafted 7th rd 2001
Inf	Tony Clark	$.8M	Acquired in trade w/ SD 7/08. Resigned 2/09
Inf	Augie Ojeda	$.712M	Signed as FA 12/07
Of	Alex Romero	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2002
SP	Brandon Webb	$6.5 M	Drafted 8th rd 2000. Signed extension 1/06
SP	Dan Haren	$5.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 12/07. Signed extension 8/5/08
SP	Doug Davis	$8.75 M	Acquired in trade w/ Mil 11/25/06
SP	Jon Garland	$6.25 M	Signed as FA 1/29/09
SP	Max Scherzer	$1 M	Drafted #11 overall 2006
Cl	Chad Qualls	$2.53M	Acquired in trade w/ Hou 12/07
SU	Jon Rauch	$2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 7/22/08
RP	Tom Gordon	$.5 M	Signed as FA 2/6/09
RP	Scott Schoenweis	$3.6 M	Acquired in trade w/ NYM 12/12/08
RP	Tony Pena	$.43 M	Signed as amateur FA from D.R. 2002
RP	Yusmiero Petit	$.412M	Acquired in trade w/ Fla 3/07
RP	Travis Blackley	$.405M	Signed as FA 12/19/08

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Say hello to: Scott Schoenweis, Felipe Lopez, Jon Garland, Tom Gordon

Wave goodbye: Connor Robertson, Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Lyon, Adam Dunn, David Eckstein, Juan Cruz

Rookies: none

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Gerardo Parra

Potential breakout: Justin Upton, Stephen Drew

Welcome to Earth: I see no one on this team that is likely to decline.  Maybe a bullpen guy?

Likely to rebound: Chris Young

Strengths: The best 1-2 punch of any rotation in the NL.

Weaknesses: Strikeouts. Reynolds whiffed 200 times last year and Young, Byrnes, Upton, and the combined at-bat total for the catchers are all a threat to swing and miss 150+ times.

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

CF Young R  .248/.315/.443  22, 14  .258

SS Drew L  .291/.333/.502  21, 3  .277

1B Jackson R  .300/.376/.446  12, 10  .285

RF Upton R  .250/.353/.463  15, 1  .272

3B Reynolds R  .239/.320/.458  28, 11  .266

LF Byrnes R  .209/.272/.369  6, 4  .219

C Snyder R/Montero L  .272/.260

2B Lopez R  .283/.343/.387  6, 8

Prediction: 1^st place NL West. Lose in NLCS.

 

Season Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

2008 Record: 90-72  .556

Run differential: +61 (4^th)

2008 payroll: $80,937,499

Last season the Brewers made the playoffs for the first time since they went to the World Series in 1982.  The lineup was a testament to what a good minor league system can do.  Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy, and Bill Hall were offensive centerpieces that were all drafted and developed through their minor leagues.  Even CC Sabathia, who picked up the Brewers and carried them all the way to the finish, was acquired by trading one of their top minor league talents.  Sabathia’s performance is one that will be remembered for the ages as he went 9-0 in his first 11 starts and made his last three starts on three days rest.  Ben Sheets finally was healthy enough to pitch in as he had his best season since 2004.  Despite the manager merry-go-round in the final month, the Brew Crew took the Wild Card.  Meeting the Phillies in the first round spelled doom though but the team’s overall performance brought optimism that Sabathia could be resigned and the team could try again.

Needless to say the offseason did not go well.  Sabathia left for the Bronx and Ben Sheets’ arm injury was more severe than originally thought so he is still unsigned.  This prevented Milwaukee from getting any first round compensation (Mark Teixeira was declared a higher ranking free agent by the Elias compensation system).  Furthermore, closer Salomon Torres retired.  Now Milwaukee will have to rebuild the rotation and bullpen in order to get back to the playoffs.  They should be able to count on big seasons from Braun and Fielder and this could finally be the year Weeks breaks out.  No more horrible bullpen moves will plague this team (although a horrible bullpen may) with Ken Macha, whose teams have never won fewer than 88 games, now at the helm.  Even so the Cubs appear to be just too good.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Jason Kendall	$4.25 M	Signed as FA 11/07
C	Mike Rivera	$.395M	Contract purchased from Ind Lg 5/05
1b	Prince Fielder	$6.5 M	Drafted #7 overall 2002
2b	Rickie Weeks	$2.45 M	Drafted #2 overall 2003
3b	Bill Hall	$6.8 M	Drafted 6th rd 1998
SS	JJ Hardy	$4.65 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2001
LF	Ryan Braun	$.745M	Drafted #5 overall 2005
CF	Mike Cameron	$10 M	Signed as FA 1/11/08
RF	Corey Hart	$3.25 M	Drafted 11th rd 2000
Inf	Mike Lamb	$.4 M	Signed as FA 9/08. Resigned 12/9/08
Inf	Craig Counsell	$3.4 M	Signed as FA 11/06. Resigned 1/09
Of	Brad Nelson	$.39M	Drafted 4th rd 2001
Of	Tony Gwynn, Jr	$.4 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2003
SP	Yovani Gallardo	$.404M	Drafted 2nd rd 2004
SP	Jeff Suppan	$12.5 M	Signed as FA 12/06
SP	Manny Parra	$.39M	Drafted 26th rd 2001
SP	Braden Looper	$4.75 M	Signed as FA 2/13/09
SP	David Bush	$4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Tor 12/7/05
Cl	Trevor Hoffman	$6 M	Signed as FA 1/8/09
SU	Mitch Stetter	$.39M	Drafted 16th rd 2003
RP	David Riske	$4.25 M	Signed as FA 12/5/07
RP	Jorge Julio	$.95 M	Signed as FA 12/4/08
RP	Seth McClung	$1.67M	Acquired in trade w/ TB 7/28/07
RP	Todd Coffey	$.8 M	Claimed off waivers 9/08. Resigned 12/9/08
RP	Carlos Villanueva	$.413M	Signed as FA from D.R. 2002

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Say hello to: Jorge Julio, RJ Swindle, Braden Looper, Chase Wright, Trevor Hoffman

Wave goodbye: Russell Branyan, CC Sabathia, Joe Dillon, Salomon Torres, Eric Gagne, Brian Shouse, Ben Sheets, Ray Durham, Guillermo Mota

Rookies: Alcides Escobar, Matt Gamel

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Trot Nixon, Chris Capuano, Chris Duffy

Potential breakout: Rickie Weeks

Welcome to Earth: Jason Kendall, Jeff Suppan

Likely to rebound: Corey Hart

Strengths: Power.  Braun and Fielder could each hit 40 homers and Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Hall, and Cameron could all hit 20.

Weaknesses: Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder might be the worst defensive players at their respective positions.  Trevor Hoffman should not be closing games.

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

RF Hart R  .268/.300/.459  20, 23  .264

SS Hardy R  .284/.345/.491  24, 2  .283

1B Fielder L  .276/.372/.507  34, 3  .300

LF Braun R  .285/.335/.553  37, 14  .298

CF Cameron R  .243/.331/.477  25, 17  .282

2B Weeks R  .234/.342/.398  14, 19  .268

3B Hall R/Lamb L  .239/.214

C Kendall R  .246/.327/.324  2, 8  .237

Prediction: 2^nd place NL Central

 

Season Preview: LA Dodgers

2008 Record: 84-78  .519

Run differential: +52 (6^th)

2008 payroll: $118,588,536

Last season’s Dodger squad was one marred with injuries and disappointment.  Rafael Furcal, Brad Penny, Nomar, Jason Schmidt, and Andruw Jones all failed to live up to expectations and missed substantial playing time.  This necessitated the Dodgers to make some bold moves to strengthen their roster during the stretch run.  Acquisitions of ManRam, Casey Blake, and Greg Maddux helped give them to the division crown for the first time since 2004.  Strong pitching allowed them to sweep past the Cubs and move to the NLCS where they lost to the eventual champion Phillies.

This season’s squad is unlikely to have the same injury luck but if lightning strikes twice it is doubtful there is enough depth to keep the team on top.  Brad Penny and Derek Lowe are both gone from last season’s rotation.  Clayton Kershaw and James McDonald are both ready to step in but there is reason to expect they’ll tire with the number of innings they will be needed to pitch.  The oft-injured Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf are also expected to be contributors.  If these three things work out then the Dodgers may be the best team in the league but it’s most likely only one will.

Offensively the Dodgers are set.  The lineup is a blend of power and speed and is evenly balanced with left and right-handed hitters meaning runs will come in bunches.  James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Rafael Furcal are good bets to improve on last season’s performance and though Manny won’t hit .396 again, having him in the cleanup spot for a full season will pay huge dividends.

This is a Dodger team that has championship expectations and rightly so, but if the rotation has issues it could be a rough summer in Dodgerland.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Russell Martin	$3.9 M	Drafted 17th rd 2002
C	Brad Ausmus	$1 M	Signed as FA 1/26/09
1b	James Loney	$.411 M	Drafted #19 overall 2002
2b	Orlando Hudson	$3.38 M	Signed as FA 2/20/09
3b	Casey Blake	$5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Cle 7/08. Resigned 12/08
SS	Rafael Furcal	$6.5 M	Signed as FA 12/05. Resigned 12/08
LF	Manny Ramirez	$25 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 7/31/08. Resigned 3/09
CF	Matt Kemp	$.406M	Drafted 6th rd 2003
RF	Andre Ethier	$3.1 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak
Inf	Mark Loretta	$1.25 M	Signed as FA 12/10/08
Inf	Blake DeWitt	$.39 M	Drafted #28 overall 2004
Of	Juan Pierre	$10 M	Signed as FA 11/06
Of	Delwyn Young	$.39 M	Drafted 4th rd 2002
SP	Chad Billingsley	$.5 M	Drafted #24 overall 2003
SP	Hiroki Kuroda	$10 M	Signed as FA from Japan 12/07
SP	Clayton Kershaw	$.39 M	Drafted #7 overall 2006
SP	Randy Wolf	$5 M	Signed as FA 2/6/09
SP	Jason Schmidt	$12 M	Signed as FA 12/06
Cl	Jonathan Broxton	$1.83 M	Drafted 6th rd 2002
SU	Hong-Chih Kuo	$.392M	Signed as amateur FA 1999
RP	Cory Wade	$.39 M	Drafted 10th rd 2004
RP	Claudio Vargas	$.4 M	Signed as FA 12/31/08
RP	Greg Miller	$.39 M	Drafted #31 overall 2002
RP	Eric Stults	$.39 M	Drafted 15th rd 2002
RP	Guillermo Mota	$2.35 M	Acquired in trade 11/07. Resigned 1/14/09

Payroll obligations to former players: Andruw Jones, Esteban Loaiza

Say hello to: Mark Loretta, Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf, Brad Ausmus, Claudio Vargas

Wave goodbye: Greg Maddux, Scott Proctor, Nomar Garciaparra, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe, Chan Ho Park, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Joe Beimel

Rookies: James McDonald

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Shawn Estes, Yhenzy Brazoban, Eric Milton, Ivan DeJesus, Doug Mientkiewicz

Potential breakout: Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw

Welcome to Earth: Hiroki Kuroda

Likely to rebound: Rafael Furcal missed most of last season due to injury.  He is apparently healthy this season.

Strengths: Infield defense.  Strong, balanced offense

Weaknesses: No depth in the rotation.  Jason Schmidt, who did not pitch last season and only threw 25 innings in 2007, is penciled in as the #4 starter

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

SS Furcal B  .357/.439/.573  5, 8  .347

C Martin R  .280/.385/.396  13, 18  .288

RF Ethier L  .305/.375/.510  20, 6  .310

LF Ramirez R  .332/.430/.601  37, 3

1B Loney L  .289/.338/.434  13, 7  .274

CF Kemp R  .290/.340/.459  18, 35  .282

2B Hudson B  .305/.367/.450  8, 4  .281

3B Blake R .274/.345/.463  21, 3

Prediction: 2^nd place NL West

 

Season Preview: Chicago Cubs

2008 Record: 97-64  .602

Run differential: +184 (1^st)

2008 payroll: $118,345,833

Last season the Cubs had the best record in the NL and the best run differential in the majors on their way to breezing to the NL Central crown.  But their Cubbieness came out of hiding in October as the Dodgers sent them home by sweeping them in the first round of the playoffs.  As disappointing an ending like that is, the Cubs should be confident going into the 2009 season.

There were several changes made to the roster during the offseason.  Kerry Wood was let go in free agency so the younger and more talented Carlos Marmol close games, Jason Marquis was sent packing to Colorado, and Mark DeRosa was traded to Cleveland for some middling minor league pitchers.  These moves allowed the Cubs to sign right fielder Milton Bradley who immediately brings a new intensity to the team.  DeRosa’s positional flexibility will be missed but he had what is most likely to be his career season offensively last year.  Health issues have always been a problem for Bradley but hitting has not.  Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino and Kevin Gregg were acquired in separate deals to provide a link from one of the National League’s best starting staffs to Marmol.

The new lineup really isn’t much different than last seasons.  Disappointing free agent Kosuke Fukudome will be moved to center where he will platoon with Reed Johnson.  While neither of these guys should be expected to excel defensively, this platoon should maximize their offensive strengths as they replace Jim Edmonds’s torrid half season in Wrigley.  The expected Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles platoon at second base should allow the Cubs to get the most offense out of this position of any team in the division. 

If the Cubs can get 140 innings out of Rich Harden--and that is definitely a big if--this team should have no problem retaining their crown as division champs.  And as we see each year, once you make the playoffs anything can happen.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Geovany Soto	$.401M	Drafted 11th rd 2001
C	Paul Bako	$.725M	Signed as FA 1/30/09
1b	Derrek Lee	$13 M	Acquired in trade w/ Fla 11/03. Resigned 4/06
2b	Mike Fontenot	$.405M	Drafted 21st rd 1999
3b	Aramis Ramirez	$15.65 M	Acquired in trade w/ Pit 7/03. Resigned 11/06
SS	Ryan Theriot	$.5 M	Drafted 3rd rd 2001
LF	Alfonso Soriano	$13 M	Signed as FA 11/06
CF	Reed Johnson	$3 M	Signed as FA 3/25/08
RF	Milton Bradley	$5 M	Signed as FA 1/6/09
Inf	Aaron Miles	$2.2 M	Signed as FA 12/31/08
Of	Kosuke Fukudome	$11.5 M	Signed as FA from Japan 12/07
Of	Joey Gathright	$.8 M	Signed as FA 12/16/08
UT	Micah Hoffpauir	$.39 M	Drafted 13th rd 2002
SP	Carlos Zambrano	$17.75 M	Signed as FA 1/15/09
SP	Ryan Dempster	$8 M	Signed as FA 1/21/04. Resigned 11/08
SP	Ted Lilly	$12 M	Signed as FA 12/06
SP	Rich Harden	$7 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 7/8/08
SP	Sean Marshall	$.327M	Drafted 6th rd 2003
Cl	Carlos Marmol	$.575M	Signed as amateur FA from D.R. 1999
SU	Kevin Gregg	$4.2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Fla 11/13/08
RP	Luis Vizcaino	$3.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Col 1/6/09
RP	Chad Gaudin	$2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 7/8/08
RP	Aaron Heilman	$1.63 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 1/20/09
RP	Neal Cotts	$1.1 M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 11/06.
RP	Angel Guzman	$.401M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 1999

Payroll obligations to former players: Jason Marquis

Say hello to: Kevin Gregg, Joey Gathright, Aaron Miles, Luis Vizcaino, Milton Bradley, Paul Bako, Aaron Heilman

Wave goodbye: Kerry Wood, Bobby Howry, Mark DeRosa, Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds

Rookies: Jeff Samardzija

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Corey Koskie, So Taguchi, Mike Stanton, Chad Fox

Potential breakout: Micah Hoffpauir

Welcome to Earth: I don’t see Milton Bradley playing 140 games again

Likely to rebound: Kosuke? I’m not sure anyone will really have a better season but if I had to pick someone I’d pick Fukudome.

Strengths: The Cubs have one of the league’s top offenses and rotations to go with an intelligent manager.

Weaknesses: Several guys with injury issues and very few left handed hitters.

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

SS Theriot R  .307/.387/.359  1, 22  .267

LF Soriano R  .280/.344/.532  29, 19  .291

RF Bradley B .321/.436/.563  22, 5  .337

3B Ramirez R  .289/.380/.518  27, 2 .300

C  Soto R  .285/.364/.504  23, 0  .291

1B Lee R .291/.361/.462  20, 8  .282

2B Fontenot L/Miles B  .305/270

CF Johnson R/Fukudome L  .270/.263

Prediction: 1^st place. NL Champs 

Season Preview: Atlanta Braves

2008 Record: 72-90  .444

Run differential: -25 (9^th)

2008 payroll: $102,365,683

The 2007 offseason saw Atlanta make a couple of moves which they thought would put the finishing touches on a team expected to contend and back into the playoffs.  Edgár Rentería was traded to Detroit for a couple of prospects including Jair Jurrjens, Tom Glavine was signed, and Omar Infante was acquired from the Cubs.  In the end injuries, the league’s worst outfield, and a historically awful record in one run games doomed the Braves.

While the Braves cried, “Pity me!” the rest of the league had good reason to laugh.  Yes, the amount of injuries showed bad luck but the real problem was in the plan itself.  One cannot go into a season counting on getting significant contributions from two 40+-year-old pitchers and Mr. Glass.  The key contributors in the bullpen were also associated with injuries.  Offensive superstar Mark Teiexeira’s career performance in the first half is best reflected in the number of All-Star teams he’s made (1).  Adding insult to injury was free-swinging Jeff Francouer having the worst season by a Braves outfielder EVER.

After trading for Vazquez, the 2008 offeseason headed on a downward spiral as high profile free agents Burnett, Rafael Furcal, and Griffey Jr all spurned the Braves for other deals.  Frank Wren rallied to sign a few guys, most notably Derek Lowe, in a desperate attempt to renew the faith of the fans.  Instead of signing free agents Atlanta needs to remember how they got to the playoffs to begin with: a core built and developed via a strong farm system.  Atlanta has the prospects in place for their next run.  As it is though, the Braves appear on the cusp of contention this season but if they fail it will just be a big waste of money.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Brian McCann	$3.5 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2002. Signed extension 3/07
C	David Ross	$1.4 M	Signed as FA 12/5/08
1b	Casey Kotchman	$2.89 M	Acquired in trade w/ LAA 7/29/08
2b	Kelly Johnson	$2.83 M	Drafted #38 overall 2000.
3b	Chipper Jones	$10 M	Drafted #1 overall 1990. Signed extension 11/05
SS	Yunel Escobar	$.403M	Drafted 2nd rd 2005
LF	Garret Anderson	$2.5 M	Signed as FA 2/22/09
CF	Gregor Blanco	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2000
RF	Jeff Francoeur	$3.38M	Drafted #23 overall 2002.
Inf	Martin Prado	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2001
Of	Matt Diaz	$1.24 M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 12/05
UT	Omar Infante	$1.85M	Acquired in trade w/ ChN 12/4/07
UT	Greg Norton	$.8 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 5/08. Resigned 12/08
SP	Derek Lowe	$15 M	Signed as FA 1/15/09
SP	Javier Vazquez	$11.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 12/4/08
SP	Jair Jurrjens	$.39 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 10/29/07
SP	Kenshin Kawakami	$7 M	Signed as FA 1/13/09
SP	Tom Glavine	$1 M	Signed as FA 11/07. Resigned 2/09
Cl	Mike Gonzalez	$3.45M	Acquired in trade w/ Pit 1/07
SU	Rafael Soriano	$6.1 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 12/06.
RP	Peter Moylan	$.44M	Signed as amateur FA from Australia 3/06
RP	Manny Acosta	$.39 M	Signed as FA 2/07
RP	Blaine Boyer	$.39 M	Drafted 15th rd 2005
RP	Jorge Campillo	$.39 M	Signed as FA 12/17/07
RP	Boone Logan	$.405M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 12/4/08

Say hello to: Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Boone Logan, Eric O’Flaherty, David Ross, Garret Anderson

Wave goodbye: Brent Lillibridge, Mike Hampton, John Smoltz

Rookies: Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Jordan Schafer, Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson

Potential breakout: Yunel Escobar

Welcome to Earth: Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Jorge Campillo

Likely to rebound: Jeff Francoeur (he can’t be any worse, right?),

Strengths: Innings eating rotation, infield defense

Weaknesses: The offensive output from the outfield looks bleak and no RH power hitters.

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

CF Blanco L  .251/.366/.309  1, 13  .259

SS Escobar R .288/.366/.401 10, 2  .275

3B Jones B  .364/.470/.574  22, 4  .363

C  McCann L  .301/.373/.523  23, 5  .311

LF Anderson L/Diaz R    .262/.202

2B Johnson L  .287/.349/.446  12, 11  .281

1B Kotchman L  .237/.331/.316  2, 0 . 235

RF Francoeur R  .239/.294/.359  11, 0  .231

Prediction: 3^rd place

 

Season Preview: San Franciso Giants

2008 Record: 72-90  .444

Run differential: -119 (13^th)

2008 payroll: $76,594,500

Last season was first without Barry Bonds in a Giant uniform since 1992.  A sans Bonds offense coupled with a young rotation made San Francisco many experts’ mortal lock for 100 losses.  With a surprising performance by the rotation and extreme luck in one run games (31-21), the Giants were happily able to avoid the cellar and give the sportswriters a great big …burger to eat.  The major highlight was Tim Lincecum showing he is the best young hurler in baseball by winning the Cy Young Award in his first full season. Additionally Jonathan Sanchez finally had a defined role and Brian Wilson showed he has the stuff to be a big league closer.  Unfortunately filling Bonds’s shoes proved difficult as the offense was an embarrassment-- only managing 94 home runs and finishing ahead of just San Diego in runs scored.

The 2009 club isn’t much different.  Due to Brian Sabean’s never ending crush on 30+ year old men, San Fran signed a few guys to short deals hoping provide this team with more “leadership” in an effort to help them “go a long way.”  The most famous addition is the Big Unit who agreed to a one-year contract.  Also coming to town are two relievers to help shore up the pen in Affeldt and Howry.  Luckily, the team only signed one geezer to fix the offense. Banking that a return to the NL rejuvenates Edgár Rentería and finally letting rookie Travis Ishikawa as well as top hitting prospect Pablo Sandoval play could allow the offense to creep up to league average. 

This team needs to be cautious though since manager Bruce Bochy pushed his young pitchers so hard last season. We all know what happened to Prior and Wood when Dusty took the reins.  Let’s just hope Lincecum and Cain don’t suffer a similar end.  When you put everything together you get a team where if all things break right could find itself in the playoffs or with some bad luck could end up as one of the worst teams in baseball.  Either way this team has pitching depth that should be the foundation for their next contending teams.  Now to just find a way out of the Zito and Rowand contracts…

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Bengie Molina	$6 M	Signed as FA 12/06
C	Steve Holm	$.39 M	Drafted 17th rd 2001
1b	Travis Ishikawa	$.39 M	Drafted 21st rd 2002
2b	Emmanuel Burris	$.39 M	Drafted #33 overall 2006
3b	Pablo Sandoval	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2002
SS	Edgar Renteria	$7 M	Signed as FA 12/4/08
LF	Fred Lewis	$.392M	Drafted 2nd rd 2002
CF	Aaron Rowand	$8 M	Signed as FA 12/12/07
RF	Randy Winn	$8.25 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 7/05. Signed extension 2/06
Inf	Kevin Frandsen	$.398M	Drafted 17th rd 2004
Inf	Rich Aurilia		Non Roster Invitee
Of	Dave Roberts	$6.5 M	Signed as FA 12/06
UT	Eugenio Velez	$.39 M	Selected in AAA phase of Rule 5 draft '05
SP	Tim Lincecum	$.65 M	Drafted #10 overall 2006
SP	Matt Cain	$2.65 M	Drafted #25 overall 2002. Signed extension 3/07
SP	Randy Johnson	$8 M	Signed as FA 12/26/08
SP	Jonathan Sanchez	$.395M	Drafted 27th rd 2004
SP	Barry Zito	$18.5 M	Signed as FA 12/06
Cl	Brian Wilson	$.395M	Drafted 24th rd 2003
SU	Jeremy Affeldt	$3 M	Signed as FA 11/17/08
RP	Bobby Howry	$2.75 M	Signed as FA 12/3/08
RP	Jack Taschner	$.83 M	Drafted 2nd rd 1999
RP	Alex Hinshaw	$.39 M	Drafted 15th rd 2005
RP	Sergio Romo	$.39 M	Drafted 28th rd 2005
RP	Luis Perdomo	$.39 M	Selected in 2008 Rule 5 draft

Say hello to: Jeremy Affeldt, Bobby Howry, Randy Johnson, Edgár Rentería

Wave goodbye: Tyler Walker, Omar Vizquel

Rookies: Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Travis Ishikawa

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Ramon Ortiz, Buster Posey, Rich Aurilia, Josh Phelps, Juan Uribe

Potential breakout: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis

Welcome to Earth: Bengie Molina

Likely to rebound: Bobby Howry

Strengths: The rotation is excellent.

Weaknesses: The offense is putrid.  The left side of the infield has the same range as a rose bush.

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

LF Lewis L  .287/.357/.458  9, 21  .281

SS Rentería R  .270/.317/.382  10, 6  .247

RF Winn B  .306/.363/.426  10, 25  .286

C  Molina R  .292/.322/.445  16, 0  .266

3B Sandoval B  .345/.357/490  3, 0  .297

CF Rowand R .271/.339/.410  13, 2  .262

1B Ishikawa L  .274/.337/.432  3, 1  .272

2B Burris R  .243/.333/.486  1, 0  .277

Prediction: 3^rd place and a losing record