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Friday, February 10, 2012

Power 16: February 10, 2012


Though Austin Rivers' 3-pointer won the game for the Blue Devils it's still not enough 
to earn them a 1 seed. There's still time. And seriously, what was Tyler Zeller thinking?

I held off making this week's Power 16 since there were so many intriguing games in the middle of the week. It paid off.  There's a lot of shuffling going on and while the top teams are starting to secure position the 3's and 4's are not even close to being settled. Check it out to see who moved up and who moved down.

1's
Record
              RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Kentucky
24-1 (11-1)
   3 / 74/ 5-1
Syracuse 
24-1 (11-1)
   1 /12 / 6-1
Ohio St.
21-3 (8-2)
   4 /41 / 6-3
Missouri
22-2 (9-2)
   9 /102 / 6-1

Kentucky continues to roll and unless they lose more than two times down the stretch a 1 seed is all locked up.  Syracuse held off a feisty Georgetown squad this week to stay atop the Big East.  They're in a dogfight with Kentucky for the top overall seed.  Ohio St. is 10-2 over their last 12 games and looks like they've got the Big Ten wrapped up. Missouri earns themselves the final 1 seed by currently sitting in first place in the Big 12. Wins over Kansas and Baylor help their cause.

2's
Record
               RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Duke
18-3 (5-1)
     2 / 2 / 6-4
Kansas
19-5 (9-2)
     5 / 3 / 7-4
North Carolina
19-2 (6-2)
      8 / 17 / 5-4
Michigan St.
17-4 (6-2)
     7 / 6 / 5-5

Duke's huge win at North Carolina keeps them on the edge of a 1 seed.  I believe if they win the ACC and get to the ACC final in their conference tournament a 1 seed will be theirs.  Kansas' 2-2 record over their previous four games proves to be a huge opportunity lost. If they'd beaten Missouri they would likely be the last 1 seed.  UNC could have solidified their spot as a 1 seed if they'd beaten Duke.  Instead they drop down a couple of spots making for a very crowded group of 2's.  Michigan St.'s loss to Illinois last week isn't enough to knock them down to a 3.

3's
Record
               RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Baylor
21-3 (8-3)
  6 / 13 / 7-3
Georgetown
18-5 (8-4)
  11 / 11 / 6-3
UNLV
21-4 (5-2)
  10 / 51 / 5-3
Marquette
20-5 (9-3)
  12 / 46 / 3-4

Baylor's RPI is deceiving in my mind as any team that plays St. Mary's and Kansas would get a big boost.  They are clearly the third best team in the Big 12 and will need to win at Missouri Saturday to avoid getting swept by the top two. Georgetown hung tough at Syracuse but couldn't pull it out.  They currently sit in 4th place in the Big East and will need to finish in the top 3 to keep their spot as a 3 seed. UNLV's five game winning streak ended at the hands of Wyoming last weekend but it's not enough to knock them out.  A key game against San Diego St. takes place tomorrow with first place on the line.  Marquette finally lost but are still in second place in the Big East.  The gap is closing on their position, however.

4's
Record
              RPI/SOS/vs. RPI top 50
Florida
19-5 (7-2)
  14 / 56 / 3-3
Wisconsin
19-6 (8-4)
   24 / 27 / 5-5
Indiana
19-6 (7-6)
  16 / 31 / 6-4
San Diego St.
20-3 (6-1)
  17 / 81 / 4-3

A lot of turnover in the 4's this week.  Florida continues to play well and despite their ugly loss to Kentucky moves ahead of several teams.  A strong conference record helps overshadow a mediocre non-conference schedule.  Wisconsin survived a scary road test at Minnesota and remains a 1/2 game out of second place in the Big Ten.  Indiana seems to be back on the right track with two straight wins over Purdue and Illinois.  It's too late for them to get a 2 seed but if they continue to play well a 3 seed is possible.  San Diego sneaks in here by the slimmest of margins thanks to St. Mary's and Murray St. losing and with Creighton losing twice.  If they lose this weekend to UNLV they'll be back down to a 5.

Also considered: Creighton, Vanderbilt, Florida St., Michigan, St. Mary's
Dropped out: Creighton, St. Mary's, Murray St.
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