BCS Bowl Projections

I started this post a few weeks ago, and then the big weekend of upsets happened and I didn't get back to it. Since tomorrow night I'll be hitting the bottle pretty hard (Ticknor's bachelor party), I figure tonight is a good excuse to do some blogging about the upcoming (and final) announcement of BCS qualifying schools.

Basic rules are that no more than 2 teams from a single conference can be selected to the 5 BCS Bowls (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, BCS Title) unless the #1 and #2 teams in the final BCS rankings are from the same conference, and by some miracle, neither is the conference champion.

[Scenario for that last bit: If Arkansas beat LSU tonight (say 13-10) and the new rankings reflected Arkansas #1, LSU as #2, and Bama as #3. Then Arkansas then loses to Georgia in the SEC title game. 3 SEC schools in BCS bowls (Georgia for the automatic bid, and LSU & Bama in a rematch for the Championship).]

The SEC champion is tied to the Sugar Bowl; the Big Ten and Pac-12 to the Rose Bowl; the Big 12 to the Fiesta Bowl; the ACC to the Orange Bowl. The Big East champion is guaranteed a BCS bowl entry through 2013 but is not tied to a specific bowl.

Finally, assuming that the #1 and #2 ranked schools in the final BCS rankings represent 2 conference champions (as in 2010 with Auburn and Oregon), their corresponding tie-in bowl games receive 1st and 2nd choice of remaining automatic qualifiers and at-large teams, respectively. They cannot "steal" schools based on the previous qualifications above.

If Notre Dame finishes in the top 8 of the BCS, the Irish get an automatic bid. A top 12 finish gives them a chance at one of the at-large spots, but they have only cracked the BCS three times since its inception in 1998. Any other school from a non-major conference can crack the BCS with a few other stipulations. Boise State is the best explanation by example.

Enough talk, more NUMBERS!