2013-2014 Men's Big Ten Basketball Preview

Now that I've previewed all twelve teams it's prediction time.  Below I've listed my best guess at the conference standings as well as the awards. In April we can all

Gary Harris & Adreian Payne may be the two
best players in the entire BIG conference.

look back and see how wrong I am.

Standings

	W	L
Michigan St.	14	4
Wisconsin	13	5
Ohio St.	12	6
Michigan	12	6
Purdue	11	7
Iowa	10	6
Indiana	9	9
Illinois	7	11
Penn St.	6	12
Minnesota	5	13
Northwestern	4	14
Nebraska	4	14

All Big Ten First Team
G Aaron Craft - Ohio State
G Gary Harris - Michigan State
G Nik Stauskas - Michigan
F Adreian Payne - Michigan State
F Sam Dekker - Wisconsin

All Big Ten Second Team
G Tim Frazier - Penn State
G Josh Gasser - Wisconsin
G Andre Hollins - Minnesota
F Glenn Robinson III - Michigan
C AJ Hammons - Purdue

Big Ten Freshmen Team
G Derrick Walton, Jr. - Michigan
G Tai Webster - Nebraska
F Zak Irvine - Michigan
F Kendall Stephens - Purdue
C Noah Vonleh - Indiana

BIG Tournament Champ: Michigan State
Defensive player of the Year: Aaron Craft
Big Ten Player of the Year: Adreian Payne

2013-14 Men's Big Ten Basketball Preview: P & W

Today we preview the last three teams in the Big Ten.  There might be a couple of surprises so read on!

Penn State Nittany Lions
Head Coach: Patrick Chambers
Last Season: 10-21 (2-16), last in Big Ten
Graduated: G Nick Colella
Transfered: F Jermaine Marshall, F Jon Graham
Left Early: F Sasa Borovnjak
New Faces: Graham Woodward, Geno Thorpe, John Johnson (transfer)
2013 recap: There was some optimism in State College entering the season and things were looking good after a mild upset victory over Providence in November.  Unfortunately in the following game star point guard Tim Frazier suffered an achilles injury causing him to miss the rest of the season.  Without their star player, the Penn State team fell into complete disarray and began the BIG season 0-14 before finally getting a victory against Michigan.  When the season ended the second best player on the team, Jermaine Marshall, elected to transfer potentially setting back some

May people have forgotten Tim Frazier is
one of the 10 best players in the conference.

progress the team made during the year.
The Starters:

Pos	Players	Height	Wt	Year
PG	Tim Frazier	6'1"	170	Sr.
G	DJ Newbill	6'4"	205	Jr
F	Brandon Taylor	6'7"	235	So.
F	Donovon Jack	6'9"	210	So.
F	Ross Travis	6'6"	225	Jr.

.

Point guard Tim Frazier can do it all.  He's one of the best passers in the nation, knows how to get to the rim, and as a result he gets to the line.  It's not uncommon for him to also lead the team in rebounding. If he's back to form Penn State will be blessed with possibly the league's best player.  DJ Newbill was forced to grow up quite a bit in Frazier's absence.  He became more assertive shooting and learned how to facilitate the offense at the same time.  Look for him to combine with Frazier to give the Nittany Lions one of the conference's best backcourts.  Brandon Taylor is a solid rebounder but more of a role player on offense which works out perfectly for a team whose guards will take the majority of the shots.  If Taylor can establish himself as a decent low post player to compliment his mid-range jumper he could find himself more involved as the season goes along.  Donovan Jack is the "big man" on this team.  Like Taylor, he showed potential as a freshman last year and looks to be an important component for this team's success.  He'll be forced to guard the other big men in the conference and while that may seem daunting he appears to be a solid defensive player.  Ross Travis is the energetic glue guy every team needs. Last season he averaged 7 points and 7 rebounds and coach Chambers has even said he's capable of guarding all five positions.
The Bench:

G	Allen Roberts	6'3"	214	Sr.
F	Alan Wisniewski	6'9"	230	Sr.
G	Graham Woodward	6'0"	170	Fr.
G	Geno Thorpe	6'3"	180	Fr.
F	Julian Moore	6'10"	215	Fr.
G	John Johnson	6'3"	185	Jr.
F	Payton Banks	6'6"	220	Fr.

The bench will likely be pretty short at least until John Johnson is eligible to participate in January.  Guard Allen Roberts is a transfer from Miami (OH) who's experience should enable him to be a quality backup immediately.  In MAC play he proved adept at drawing fouls and was a decent defender.  Geno Thorpe and Graham Woodward are two freshmen who will also get minutes.  Though not ranked in the Rivals top 150, the team seems excited to have them in their midst nonetheless.  Alan Wisniewski will be counted on to provide quality minutes when one of the starting forwards sits.  Freshmen Julian Moore and Payton Banks aren't expected to contribute much but the team could desperately use something out of them.
2014 Outlook: With Tim Frazier back, Penn State is definitely improved from how they finished last season.  The loss of Jermaine Marshall hurts as well as having two potential impact players unavailable to the team due to transfer rules.  The non conference schedule is manageable and should give the team opportunity to sort out a rotation early. Only getting Michigan and Wisconsin once each helps their chances and as a result I expect a bit of a surprise season from the Nittany Lions.
Projection: 9th in Big Ten, NIT invite

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Season Predictions

Now that the individual team previews are complete I'd like to do my predictions.  Hopefully these will turn out to be more accurate than my 2011 MLB predictions.  Remember, the season kicks off Friday but Big Ten conference games won't begin until the final week of December.  That's a lot of games before the real season starts. We'll likely learn who's really good and who's really bad but won't learn how the middle of the conference stacks up until they begin playing each other head to head. 
A special thanks goes out to Ken Pomeroy for making advanced statistics available to everyone on the internet. His website made information gathering simple and has been a valuable tool in many of my NCAA basketball posts. 
Take a look after the jump to see my guess at how it'll all shake out:

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Wisconsin

Coach: Bo Ryan – 242-91 (.727)

Lost:  F Jon Leuer, F Keaton Nankivil, G Tim Jarmusz

Returning: G Jordan Taylor (Sr), G Josh Gasser (So), F Mike Bruesewitz (Sr), F Ryan Evans (Jr), C Jared Berggren (RS Jr), G Rob Wilson (Sr), F Duje Dukan (So)

Jordan Taylor can do it all. If not for some guy named
Sullinger Taylor would likely be the #1 candidate for BIG POY.

New faces:  G Traevon Jackson, G George Marshal, C Frank Kaminsky, PF Jarrod Uthoff(149), C Evan Anderson (Redshirt)

Preview: Every year Wisconsin finishes in the top third of the Big Ten. This year they’ll have their work cut out for them as two very important cogs graduated.  Luckily for Badger faithful 1^st Team All Big Ten guard Jordan Taylor returns.  In 2010-11 Taylor only turned the ball over on 8.5% of his possessions while playing point guard. Low rates like that are unheard of. He’ll need to sustain his excellent shooting touch while taking more shots this season if the Badgers are going to remain at the top of the conference.  Also returning is sophomore Josh Gasser who shot 60% on his two’s but only 30% on threes.  He’ll need to improve his accuracy from long range to spread the defense and help relieve the load off Taylor.  Wisconsin returns a plethora of large bodies, none of which do anything that stands out but all of whom can be expected to be excellent rebounders while solid post defenders.  Typically freshmen do not make much of an impact in Madison but the team may be looking for that to change specifically in regards to Jarrod Uthoff.  Uthoff is listed at 6’8” and has a pretty good looking outside shot.  I think the team will hope he can take the role left by Keaton Nankivil as he grows into his body and learns the system. He may be the most athletic player on the team, too.  Regardless of how Wisconsin attempts to fill the void left by their departing seniors, I don’t think it would come as a surprise to expect them to play even slower than last season (58.0 possessions per game) in an attempt to maximize offensive possessions and to try to keep the game close.  Bo Ryan has his work cut out for him.

Shot in the dark at the starting the 5:
PG Jordan Taylor
G Josh Gasser
F Mike Bruesewitz
F Ryan Evans
F Jared Berggren

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Purdue

Coach: Matt Painter - 138-64 (.683)

Lost: F JaJuan Johnson, G E’Twuan Moore

This was the last time Robbie Hummel stepped foot on a court in a
NCAA game.  Purdue fans are ready to put this image behind them
and hope Robbie can lead this young team back to a BIG championship.

Returning:  F Robbie Hummel (RS Sr), PG Lewis Jackson (Sr), G Kelsay Barlow (Jr), F DJ Byrd (Jr), G Ryne Smith (Sr), G Terone Johnson (So), F/C Travis Carroll (So), F/C Sandi Marcius (RS So), G John Hart (RS Jr),

New faces:  F Donnie Hale, PF Jacob Lawson, G Anthony Johnson (Redshirt)

Preview: Each of the last two seasons Boilermaker fans believed not reaching the Final Four would be considered a disappointment. We all know what happened.  Now Hummel is healthy (presumably) but without fellow classmen JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore.  Perhaps the most fundamentally sound player in the conference, Hummel is able to score from anywhere on the floor, is a strong rebounder, excellent passer, and a solid defender.  He will need to transform his game from facilitator to scorer in order for the offense to be successful, no small task for an unselfish player.  Also returning is waterbug point guard Lewis Jackson.  LewJack is grease lighting at getting to the rim but his inconsistent outside shot allows defenses to sag and clog up the middle. His intense on-ball defense and improved free throw shooting make him an asset to have on the floor.  Fellow guard Ryne Smith hit 44% of his threes last year and will need to duplicate that success again to keep defenses honest.  Kelsay Barlow and DJ Byrd are excellent role players capable of guarding the 1-4 positions while scoring just enough.  Without JaJuan Johnson a quartet of players will be looked upon to make up for his lost production. Travis Carroll and Donnie Hale are the more gifted offensive players while Sandi Marcius and Jacob Lawson (if he doesn’t redshirt) can cause nightmares on defense.  There will likely be a lot of mixing and matching throughout the season to maximize matchups.  But the team will be looking most anxiously at guards Terone and Anthony Johnson to be scorers. Terone struggled with his shot last year but showed he can slash to the basket.  Anthony can fill it up but will need to show his defense is ready to play for Painter.  It will likely take several games for these players to gel and find their roles on the court - and with Painter’s track record there’s little reason to expect they won’t – but once they do, with their bullying defense and methodical motion offense Purdue will be a team no one wants to face. 

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG Lewis Jackson

G Ryne Smith

G Terone Johnson

F Robbie Hummel

F Travis Carroll

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Penn St.

Coach: Patrick Chambers- 0-0

Lost: G Talor Battle, F Jeff Brooks, F David Jackson, F Andrew Jones, G Taran Buie (transfer)

Returning:  PG Tim Frazier (Jr), G Jermaine Marshall (RS So), F Billy Oliver (So), G/F Cammeron Woodyard (Sr), F Sasa Borovnjak (RS So), G Nick Colella (Jr)

Tim Frazier will need to continue his great passing
but also add some scoring for the Lions this year.

New faces:  PG Trey Lewis, SF Ross Travis, C Patrick Ackerman, C Peter Alexis, F Jon Graham (Redshirt), G Matt Glover (transfer)

Preview:  You’ve got to feel for the returning players at Penn St.  Gone are four starters who all played more than 75% of available minutes including the best player in program history (Battle).  Also leaving is head coach Ed DeChellis who did a great job in his last two seasons even getting the Nittany Lions to the NCAA Tournament last year.  Now four new starters will need to be found under new head coach Patrick Chambers.  Tim Frazier is the one returning starter and will need to be the floor general.  He is an adept passer who can get to the rim at times but is not a strong outside shooter and often has trouble taking care of the basketball.  He’ll need to improve in these areas to help a team with serious offensive deficiencies.  Freshman Trey Lewis is the most highly regarded recruit and will likely start a lot of games this year. Hopefully he’ll be capable of picking up some of the offensive slack. Sasa Borovnjak seems another likely candidate to take a starting spot.  Borovnjak has a series of post moves and can rebound but it will be interesting to see how he stacks up against other big men in the conference. Finding two other legitimate starters will be difficult.  Of all the remaining players Billy Oliver seems to have the most promise but has had trouble staying healthy.   Patrick Ackmeran could see a lot of playing time but will probably need to add girth to take the pounding he’ll encounter during the season.  There’s not a lot to like here for this season but there is talent that over time can develop and help this program become a middle of the conference team.  That year is not this year, however, so expect some ugly losses and a last place finish.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

PG Tim Frazier

G Trey Lewis

F Jon Graham

F Billy Oliver

F Sasa Borovnjak

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Ohio St.

As a freshman Jared Sullinger was a man
among boys. It's scary to think what he
can accomplish in his sophomore year.

Coach: Thad Matta – 190-57 (.769)
Lost:  G/F David Lighty, G Jon Diebler, F Dallas Lauderdale
Returning: F Jared Sullinger (So), G William Buford (Sr), G Aaron Craft (So), F DeShaun Thomas (So), G Jordan Sibert (So)
New faces: C  Amir Williams(77), PG Shannon Scott(53), SF Sam Thompson(50), PF Trey McDonald

Preview: To say the Big Ten is Ohio St.’s to lose would be an understatement.  Just like every other contender, the Buckeyes lost several contributing players. The key is what’s returning. Unanimously selected as the pre-season Big Ten POY, Jared Sullinger hopes to improve upon last season’s dominant performance.  Sullinger made 55% of his twos while posting an excellent 65.1 free throw rate (FT attempts divided by FG attempts).  Add to that his incredible rebounding ability and you have the number one candidate for national player of the year.  The only aspect he really needs to improve is his midrange game and the early rumors out of Columbus say he’s lost several pounds with an emphasis on playing away from the basket more. Scary.  I’m sure I wasn’t the only person surprised with the news of William Buford returning this season.  Buford is another excellent shooter (44% on 3’s last year) who plays good defense and can run the point in a pinch.  He’s a great compliment to Sullinger.  Point guard Aaron Craft enters his sophomore year as perhaps the most hated player in the conference. His on-ball defense can be described as a real invasion of personal space, harassing players into silly mistakes.  DeShaun Thomas could have declared for the NBA draft also but probably wanted to come back just to show he can be a significant contributor as he only played in about 30% of total minutes last year.  He’s long and athletic so expect That Matta to be able to use him just fine.  If all of this wasn’t enough reason for optimism, Ohio State also brings in one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. Amir Williams and Shannon Scott could start right away while Sam Thompson and Trey McDonald could be key reserves. Ohio State is sitting pretty and I'm expecting a deep Tournament run.
Shot in the dark at the starting the 5:
PG Aaron Craft
SG William Buford
F DeShaun Thomas
F Jared Sullinger
C Amir Williams

2011-12 BIG Basketball Preview: Northwestern

I know John Shurna looks like he should be starring
for his high school J.V. team but the guy can really ball.
Too bad he plays defense like there's no foul limit. You get five, man. Just five.

Head Coach: Bill Carmody – 160-176 (.476)

Lost: G Michael Thompson, G Mike Capocci

Returning:  F John Shurna (Sr), G Drew Crawford (Jr), C Luka Mirkovic (Sr), G JerShon Cobb (So), G Alex Marcotullio (Jr), F Davide Curletti (Sr)

New faces:   SG Tre Demps, PG David Sobolewski, PF Mike Turner

Preview: Will this be the year the Wildcats finally make the Big Dance? Losing Michael Thompson is really going to hurt but the good news is the rest of their core is returning.  Northwestern’s strengths are good strengths: low turnover rate, excellent 3-point shooting, and a top-notch overall offensive efficiency which stems from their distinct style of play that can be difficult to prepare for. Unfortunately, their flaws are glaring and often debilitating. The team was opportunistic in forcing turnovers but simply could not stop their opponents from scoring. Last season the NCAA average FG% was 47.8 but when playing Northwestern, opponents shot 52.6%. Furthermore, their post players have a tendency to pick up lots of cheap fouls. A deep team can overcome this.  Northwestern, however, is not a deep team.  Fixing one of these two would flaws would seem to be enough to push Northwestern into the upper half of the conference but it doesn’t seem Carmody or this group players are able to improve on the defensive side of the ball. The starting five (Shurna, Crawfrod, Mirkovic, Cobb, and one player to bedetermined) should at least continue last season’s offensive fireworks.  And as long as Northwestern stays efficient on the offensive end they’ll have a chance for upsets.  Alas, it seems the NCAA window has passed this team by without them making an appearance.

Shot in the dark at the starting 5:

G Drew Crawford

G JerShon Cobb

G Alex Marcotullio

F John Shurna

C Luka Mirkovic