2012 MLB Preview: AL West

Since Opening Day is tomorrow I figured I should hurry up and write my preview of the American League West.  This is a top-heavy division.  Anaheim blew their entire wad of cash on the best available free agents while Texas should remain strong thanks to their core of young players.  Seattle is undergoing a youth movement and has several young players who they hope will be a part of their lineup for years to come.  And then there's Oakland, a team who traded away their top players to reload their farm system in hopes they can compete in three years. For some it's time to win now, for others it's in the future.  This division has a lot of both.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2011 Record: 86-76

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $159.1 million
Highest Paid Player: Vernon Wells - $21 million
Best Player: Albert Pujols might be the best player in baseball.
Best Pitcher: The Angels excellent outfield defense makes Weaver really tough to beat.  Give this team an average outfield and it's Dan Haren. Either way this is a really good staff.
Say Hello To: Albert Pujols 1B, CJ Wilson SP, Chris Iannetta C, Brad Mills RP, Jason Isringhausen RP, Juan Rincon RP, LaTroy Hawkins RP, Eric Hurley RP, Ryan Langerhans OF, Jorge Cantu 1B
Wave Goodbye: Russell Branyan 4C (NYY), Fernando Rodney RP (TB), Joel Pineiro RP (Phi), Tyler Chatwood RP (Col), Jeff Mathis C (Tor),
Biggest Questions:
1. Are the Angels the division favorites? They've got the best rotation, the best player, and the best outfield defense, and maybe the best depth but they're not necessarily the best team.  Expect a dogfight with Texas all summer.

2. When will we see Mike Trout?  Mike Trout is to the Angels what Bryce Harper is to the Nationals.  Trout is an electric player who also happens to be an excellent defensive outfielder.  After Vernon Wells' historically bad 2010, if Trout gets off to a hot start a change may be forced to happen.

3. Is the Pujols contract a mistake?  Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do to get your man.  I think Pujols will be worth it the first three years or so but ten years is a long time and these kind of marriages don't always end well.

Expectations: This team forked over more money than any other last season and now sports the third highest payroll in the A.L. With that kind of spending frenzy come playoff expectations.  Winning the World Series should be the goal and this team has the talent to do it.

Perhaps the most underrated pitcher in baseball, Dan Haren
will just keep on keepin' on as this team's true staff ace.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Aybar SS

2. Kendrick 2B

3. Pujols 1B

4. Hunter RF
5. Morales DH

6. Wells LF

7. Callapso 3B

8. Iannetta C
9. Bourjos CF

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Weaver
2. Haren
3. Wilson
4. Santana
5. Williams

Cl: Walden

2011 MLB Predictions: AL West

Hamilton looks up after attempting to set the record for highest infield pop-fly.

Texas Rangers
Best Player: Josh Hamilton was last year's MVP.  I think it's safe to say he's the best player on the team.
Best Pitcher: Neftali Feliz. Another team whose best pitcher is a reliever. They toyed with making him a starter in spring training but decided not to fix what's not broken.
Biggest off-season move:  Tired of Michael Young's "defense" in the infield, the Rangers signed Adrian Beltre and his gold glove to man the hot corner.  Young is now the team's utility player and DH.
Biggest off-season loss: When Cliff Lee bolted for Philly, the Rangers lost their only stud starter.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can the rotation hold up well enough for the Rangers to repeat as division champs?  As I stated earlier, Cliff Lee was a big game pitcher for this team.  They hope CJ Wilson wasn't a flash in the pan and that Derek Holland and Scott Feldman can continue to improve.
2. Will Josh Hamilton stay healthy enough to play a full season?  We already know the answer to this question is no as Hamilton broke his arm this week.  Hamilton's only managed to play 135 games one time in his career.
3. Will Michael Young be happy in his new role? I doubt he is but will he keep his mouth shut and produce enough to be around when Texas plays in October? He already voiced his displeasure in the off-season about being replaced but the guy needs to look in the mirror and see he's not the player he was even three seasons ago.
Expectations: Texas' offense should finish in the top three in runs scored in the American League. The bullpen will be decent enough as long as Feliz is used as needed, but the major question is with the starters. I imagine they'll do just fine as Texas makes it back to the playoffs and possibly the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Kinsler 2B
2. Andrus SS
3. Hamilton LF
4. Beltre 3B
5. Young DH
6. Cruz RF
7. Napoli 1B
8. Torrealba C
9. Borbon CF
SP CJ Wilson

2010 Oakland Athletics team preview

2009 Record: 75-87   .463

Run Differential: -2

Everyone knew the A's were in full rebuilding mode after trading away rotation stalwarts Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, and Rich Harden in 2008. So when Billy Beane pulled the trigger to acquire Matt Holliday in the last year of his contract the baseball world was in shock.  Beane sent Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street to Colorado in exchange for the Rockies top player.  Holliday was to be the missing piece for offense as the A's attempted to reclaim their position atop the American League West.  But like most bold moves this one failed.   Injuries and an inept offense were the main culprit but it clearly wasn't the pitching staff's fault.  Players who lost significant time due to injury were: Justin Duchscherer, Joey Devine, Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis, and Jason Giambi.  Key offensive contributors Jack Cust and Giambi proved they are now similar players--each incapable of playing defense--who can no longer be counted on to hit for average and whose power is inconsistent at best.  Matt Holliday got off to an awful start not helping matters.  By the time he got going it was too late and he was flipped to St. Louis for hot prospect Brett Wallace.  The good was found in the young pitching. Rookie Brett Anderson struck out 150 batters in 175 innings while posting a 4.06 ERA, delighting not only A's fans but also management.  After closer Joey Devine blew out his elbow in April, the closer's job was up for grabs.  Another rookie, Andrew Bailey, eventually won the job and American League Rookie of the Year honors.  The bullpen as a whole turned out to be very good giving Oakland a young, cheap, reliable portion of their squad to rely upon in 2010.

So, after last season's failure to develop into a contender, Beane would admit the team's not ready and continue the rebuilding process, right?

Thoughts on recent baseball signings

Tuesday Oakland officially signed Ben Sheets to a one year deal worth $10 plus incentives.  A lof of people may question this move for both Oakland and Sheets.  While I agree that $10 million seems a little pricey for a player who didn't throw a single pitch last year, it's also worth noting that the year off probably did Sheets some good.  Sheets missed last season while recovering from flexor tendon surgery in his pitching elbow.  This is not TJ surgery although there may be a similar "feeling out period" as he tries to regain his form and control.  Sheets has a career WHIP of 1.20 and is third (behind Pedro & Mariano Rivera - not bad company, eh?) among active pitchers with a 3.85 K-BB ratio. 
The big risk here is obviously health.  Mr. Sheets has not pitched 200 innings in a season since 2004 (although he had 198 in 2008).  He's missed time with various ailments related to his shoulder, bicep, back, and hamstring.  I think his year away from baseball was a good thing because by not trying to pitch every fifth day (or recover from a nagging injury) his body had time to heal.  I think he's a good bet to pitch 160-180 innings.  I doubt the A's try to push him too hard for fear of killing him.  This means if Sheets can come close to his career performance he'll be easily worth the money. 
Now whether or not you think the A's can compete is an entirely different question.  Beane has at least improved the squad and if they're out of it he'll get a couple of prospects for him.  I think this is maybe the best signing of the winter.


Jim Thome also signed this week with Minnesota.  I never thought he'd end up there for a couple of reasons.  First, Thome seemed like an obvious fit for the White Sox and he even lobbied to return to Chicago.  Second, since Thome is a DH only now, there seems no place for him to play in Minnesota. Twins GM Bill Smith has already said Thome is a bench option and that Jason Kubel will remain the starting DH.  My guess is that Smith isn't too confident in LF Delmon Young and is hedging his bets.  I think it's a strong move for a team that often waits too long to make a move during the season.  With this in mind I can see Gardenhire sticking to his guns far too long meaning Thome will waste away on the bench for at least half the season. 

That's all for now.  I'm about to enjoy a Purdue victory over Wisconsin. Boiler up!

Another blockbuster!

When Roy Halladay is involved in a trade you expect a lot of players to be moving. But would you expect one of those to be Cliff Lee? Me neither. Let's break it down.

Philadelphia receives: Roy Halladay SP, Phillippe Aumont RHP, Tyson Gilles, Juan Ramirez RHP

Yes, the Phillies get Halladay (and his 3 year extension + club option for a 4th) but was it worth trading the only real prospects they had? Only time will tell. Halladay is a top five pitcher in baseball and moving to the National League should provide a nice bump to his stats. But trading Lee for him doesn't improve the team much as you might think. This trade was most likely initiated due to Lee's unwillingness for a discount as opposed to Halladay who just wants to play for a winner. If he stays healthy it's likely his performance boost will be enough to cause Halladay's name to be mentioned as a possible electee to Cooperstown.

Aumont is a prospect with a decent arm but really, I don't see him turning into much more than a #3 starter. It's also possible he ends up in the bullpen. The only thing I know about Gilles is that he's perhaps the fastest player in the minors. Another Michael Bourn perhaps? Juan Ramirez is another guy who has tons of "stuff" but no idea how to use it. He could end up anywhere from a dominant reliever to a guy who never makes it.

Seattle receives: Cliff Lee LHP

Cliff Lee, as we all know, is a former Cy Young Award winner who made the transition to the Junior League with no problems. He was also the best pitcher in October last season. How Seattle found a way to finagle themselves into this deal is beyond me, but they will love seeing Lee take the ball every fifth day right behind Felix. This team just got a lot better.

Toronto receives: Kyle Drabek SP, Travis d'Arnaud C, Michael Taylor OF

Toronto is getting some really nice prospects here but where's the major leaguer? If Toronto could've pulled in someone like Brandon Morrow or even Michael Saunders this would be a huge get. Unfortunately neither was included leaving the Jays to hope that these three prospects hit their projected ceilings.

I love Kyle Drabek as a starter and agreed with the Phillies last year when they refused to include him in any deal. I know my buddy Keith Law feels there's nothing special about him (he'll probably say as much in his trade analysis) but I humbly disagree. Michael Taylor is a monster of a prospect who would make their outfield sickening except for the fact they turned around and traded him to the A's (more on that below). Travis d'Arnaud is a solid catching prospect and could end up performing like a young Jason Kendall (without the speed) but I think that's a little optimistic. I'm wondering if including him allowed Philadelphia to gain some leverage in this trade considering Toronto didn't have a single catcher on their 40-man roster Sunday.

Later, Toronto traded Michael Taylor to the A's for 3b prospect Brett Wallace. I'm not sure I really understand this but let me take a gander. Brett Wallace is not a good defensive player and it's possible he won't be able to play the hot corner for long. He appears to have the ability to hit for high average but I'm not sure he'll ever be much of a power hitter. I think this is what motivated the A's to deal him. Wallace is ready for an extended look in spring training and I won't be surprised to see him start the year with Toronto in 2010.

For Oakland, Michael Taylor immediately becomes the best prospect in the system. The A's have several prospects who can hit but only one who hits for power. Oakland tends to be moderately difficult on power hitters and I don't know how well Taylor's power will translate to Oakland's home park, but perhaps management felt it translated better than Wallace's skills since Oakland is known for suppressing batting average.

Verdict:

Philadelphia gets a win for improving their team (although slightly) this season. I'm still on the fence on whether or not they will be improved in 2014 because of it.

Seattle, tell your fans to get excited. With the league's best defense and now an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, the Mariners have to be considered legitimate post season contenders. If they are able to shore up the bullpen then this team could be scary. Big win here.

Toronto gets some prospects I love but are missing the one major league player that allows me to say they get a win out of this deal. Instead they likely walk away getting a #2 starter whose had some history with injuries, a 3b who will hit for average, and a catching prospect who will be a solid but not spectacular starter.

A quick glance at the Man of Steal

For some reason that doesn't make any sense to me, Rickey Henderson will not be on every writer's ballot.  Listed below are several reasons why I believe Rickey Henderson should be the first unanimous pick to enter Cooperstown in 2009.

• Retired as the all-time leader in walks, runs scored, and stolen bases.
• Accumulated more than 3000 hits, 500 doubles, 100 triples, and missed the 300 HR barrier by just three.
• Was a 10 time All Star and won a gold glove
• 1991 AL MVP and also finished 2nd in 1981 and 3rd in 1985
• Led the league in runs scored five times, hits once, walks four times, stolen bases twelve times, and on-base % once.
• Has the single season record for stolen bases with 130
• Retired with a .401 OBP
• Played in 8 postseasons including three World Series.
• Batted .284/.389/.441 in the postseason and .339/.448/.607 in the World Series
• Was 1989 ALCS MVP
• Is unquestionably the greatest leadoff hitter ever

So we're looking at a guy who had a few great seasons, was good for an incredible length of time, and was a superstar in the World Series.  Plus there's a lot of fun stories about him.  I don't know how some writers can say he doesn't deserve to go in on the first ballot.