2012 MLB Preview: AL East

Every year there is talk about how baseball should approach realignment to make it more fair for the other teams in the American League East division.  "Who can compete when you've got teams tripling the payroll of the other teams?" they say.  The Yankees and Red Sox are two of the most successful teams in baseball right now and it's no coincidence that they're the two big spenders, too. But frugal Tampa Bay has had success right along with them of late and looks to be there again this season as well.  Now Toronto's rebuild is beginning to bear fruit and after finishing with a winning record last season, the team looks to take the next step with some exciting young players.  Baltimore is in the middle of what seems like a never ending rebuilding process but there are beginning to be signs of changes for the positive.  All of these factors make this a division to watch this summer.  The Yankees and Red Sox are not invulnerable meaning maybe it's someone else's time for a change.  This should end all that nonsense about "fairness" and realignment.

Baltimore Orioles

2011 Record: 69-93

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $97 million
Highest Paid Player: Nick Markakis - $12 million
Best Player: Catcher Matt Wieters broke out last season but I believe the best is yet to come.
Best Pitcher: Jake Arrieta gets the nod over Brian Matusz here simply because of how awful Matusz was last season.
Say Hello To: Darren O'Day RP, Taylor Teagarden C, Endy Chavez OF, Jai Miller OF, Wilson Betemit 3B, Armando Galarraga SP, Ronny Paulino C, Jason Hammel SP, Matt Lindstrom RP, Nick Johnson 1B
Wave Goodbye: Craig Tatum RP (Hou), Vladimir Guerrero (Japan), Cesar Izturis SS (Mil), Luke Scott DH (TB), Jo-Jo Reyes SP (Pit), Jeremy Guthrie SP (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. What is the organizational plan? The team believes by abstaining from big name free agents and allocating that money to player development through the draft and via international signees they'll be able to build a better foundation that will allow for prolonged success.  The only problem with this method is it takes a long time to see results.

2. Is Brian Matusz's career as an effective big leaguer over? That's a little harsh but there are reasons to be concerned. Whispers about work ethic may not be unfounded but the bigger question is why did his velocity and command slip so much last season? If he posts another year like 2011 he'll go from elite prospect to bust in less than two years.

3. What's the latest on Brian Roberts' health?  In May of last season Roberts hit his head sliding into first base and suffered a severe concussion.  He missed the rest of the season and has not participated in live games in spring training.  The team is likely optimistic he'll play soon since they put him on the 15 day DL and not the 60 day DL.

Expectations: It's going to be another losing season thanks to being in a stacked division.  If the young pitchers can take a step forward there will be reason for optimism, otherwise the team will be going backwards - not a good sign when you're already in last place.

Matt Wieters is another example of how it often takes a catcher
 longer than the average hitter to develop his offensive skills.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Reimold LF

2. Johnson DH

3. Markakis RF

4. Jones CF
5. Wieters C

6. Hardy SS

7. Reynolds 3B

8. Davis 1B
9. Andino 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Arrieta
2. Hammel
3. Chen
4. Hunter
5. Matusz

CL: Johnson

MLB Predictions: AL East

Wow, I apologize to my readers for not having posted this prior to the start of the season.  Time has really gotten away from me. I'll do my best to get my predictions up for the season in the next few days. Each year I do a season preview for each team but this year I've decided to amend it a bit in order to make it easier to read and easier for me to compile.

Boston Red Sox
Best Player: Kevin Youkilis is the guy I'd most like to have in real life. Carl Crawford in fantasy.
Best Pitcher: Jon Lester
Best off-season move:  Signing Carl Crawford to a 7 year mega-contract and trading for 1B Adrian Gonzalez tie for the best move.
Biggest off-season loss: Adrian Beltre
Biggest Concerns:
1. Team defense.  Although Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent defensive player, having Youkilis slide back over to 3B where he did not play last season hurts a little bit. Also Crawford is probably wasted in left field 81 times this year due to the Green Monster and Jacoby Ellsbury does not rate well at all in center field.
2. Will Varitek and Saltalamacchia hit?
3. Can Josh Beckett rebound or is he now a back-end of the rotation pitcher?
Expectations: If Boston fails to reach the playoffs heads will roll.  On paper this is the best team in baseball and expectations are that they will reach the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Crawford LF
4. Youkilis 3B
5. Gonzalez 1B
6. Ortiz DH
7. Cameron RF
8. Saltalamacchia C
9. Scutaro SS
SP Jon Lester

2010 Toronto Blue Jays team preview

2009 Record: 75-87   .463

Run Differential: +27

Toronto was better last season than their record shows as they finished the season by scoring 27 more runs than they allowed.  Usually this would lead to a record of three or four games above .500 not twelve under.  Aaron Hill and Adam Lind had breakout years but even that was not enough to offset the numerous injuries that befell the team's rotation.  Still, by playing in the American League East, no one took the team seriously including the team itself.  The team's best player and arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay, was dangled on the trading block before being pulled back in late July.  Once the season ended, GM JP Ricciardi was fired and Halladay was shipped to Philadelphia in a three team trade signaling a major rebuild.

After the dust had settled, new GM Alex Anthopoulos came away with P Kyle Drabek and 1B Brett Wallace as prizes.

Another blockbuster!

When Roy Halladay is involved in a trade you expect a lot of players to be moving. But would you expect one of those to be Cliff Lee? Me neither. Let's break it down.

Philadelphia receives: Roy Halladay SP, Phillippe Aumont RHP, Tyson Gilles, Juan Ramirez RHP

Yes, the Phillies get Halladay (and his 3 year extension + club option for a 4th) but was it worth trading the only real prospects they had? Only time will tell. Halladay is a top five pitcher in baseball and moving to the National League should provide a nice bump to his stats. But trading Lee for him doesn't improve the team much as you might think. This trade was most likely initiated due to Lee's unwillingness for a discount as opposed to Halladay who just wants to play for a winner. If he stays healthy it's likely his performance boost will be enough to cause Halladay's name to be mentioned as a possible electee to Cooperstown.

Aumont is a prospect with a decent arm but really, I don't see him turning into much more than a #3 starter. It's also possible he ends up in the bullpen. The only thing I know about Gilles is that he's perhaps the fastest player in the minors. Another Michael Bourn perhaps? Juan Ramirez is another guy who has tons of "stuff" but no idea how to use it. He could end up anywhere from a dominant reliever to a guy who never makes it.

Seattle receives: Cliff Lee LHP

Cliff Lee, as we all know, is a former Cy Young Award winner who made the transition to the Junior League with no problems. He was also the best pitcher in October last season. How Seattle found a way to finagle themselves into this deal is beyond me, but they will love seeing Lee take the ball every fifth day right behind Felix. This team just got a lot better.

Toronto receives: Kyle Drabek SP, Travis d'Arnaud C, Michael Taylor OF

Toronto is getting some really nice prospects here but where's the major leaguer? If Toronto could've pulled in someone like Brandon Morrow or even Michael Saunders this would be a huge get. Unfortunately neither was included leaving the Jays to hope that these three prospects hit their projected ceilings.

I love Kyle Drabek as a starter and agreed with the Phillies last year when they refused to include him in any deal. I know my buddy Keith Law feels there's nothing special about him (he'll probably say as much in his trade analysis) but I humbly disagree. Michael Taylor is a monster of a prospect who would make their outfield sickening except for the fact they turned around and traded him to the A's (more on that below). Travis d'Arnaud is a solid catching prospect and could end up performing like a young Jason Kendall (without the speed) but I think that's a little optimistic. I'm wondering if including him allowed Philadelphia to gain some leverage in this trade considering Toronto didn't have a single catcher on their 40-man roster Sunday.

Later, Toronto traded Michael Taylor to the A's for 3b prospect Brett Wallace. I'm not sure I really understand this but let me take a gander. Brett Wallace is not a good defensive player and it's possible he won't be able to play the hot corner for long. He appears to have the ability to hit for high average but I'm not sure he'll ever be much of a power hitter. I think this is what motivated the A's to deal him. Wallace is ready for an extended look in spring training and I won't be surprised to see him start the year with Toronto in 2010.

For Oakland, Michael Taylor immediately becomes the best prospect in the system. The A's have several prospects who can hit but only one who hits for power. Oakland tends to be moderately difficult on power hitters and I don't know how well Taylor's power will translate to Oakland's home park, but perhaps management felt it translated better than Wallace's skills since Oakland is known for suppressing batting average.

Verdict:

Philadelphia gets a win for improving their team (although slightly) this season. I'm still on the fence on whether or not they will be improved in 2014 because of it.

Seattle, tell your fans to get excited. With the league's best defense and now an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, the Mariners have to be considered legitimate post season contenders. If they are able to shore up the bullpen then this team could be scary. Big win here.

Toronto gets some prospects I love but are missing the one major league player that allows me to say they get a win out of this deal. Instead they likely walk away getting a #2 starter whose had some history with injuries, a 3b who will hit for average, and a catching prospect who will be a solid but not spectacular starter.