All Time All Stars - Yankees pitchers

In the previous post I went over the All Time All Star roster for the Yankees.  The original lineup had sixteen hitters and nine pitchers. Per the new rules, I'm changing the dynamics a bit for the new rosters so we'll be adding a pitcher this time around. This is what the pitching staff looked like in the original game:

The greatest Yankee hurler of them all.

• Jack Chesbro SP
• Whitey Ford SP
• Lefty Gomez SP
• Waite Hoyt SP/RP
• Ed Lopat SP
• Herb Pennock SP
• Allie Reynolds SP/RP
• Red Ruffing SP
• Bob Shawkey SP

This is a pretty good bunch but I know more than a couple of these guys will be bumped off since the Yankees have had two mini dynasties in the last forty years. Plus we need to add at least one full time reliever (I wonder who that could be?).  Below I've broken down the pitchers into three distinct groups. 

Original Locks: Whitey Ford, Lefty Gomez, Red Ruffing, Waite Hoyt

All four of these guys are Hall of Famers and all but Hoyt rank in the top four in career wins in a Yankee uniform. Hoyt pitched in 365 games in a Yankee uniform and was a member of six World Series teams.

New guys that are locks: Mariano Rivera (RP), Goose Gossage (RP), Andy Pettitte, Ron Guidry

Rivera is not only the greatest reliever of all time, he's also the greatest Yankee pitcher of all time. Gossage is another HOF reliever and easily makes this team.  Andy Pettitte is third all time in Yankee wins with Guidry fifth. This leaves two spots open.

Guys on the bubble:

• Sparky Lyle (RP) - Lyle was one of the first great full time relief pitchers. Like Gossage, he was used as a multi-inning reliever and his 35 saves in 1972 were the second most ever recorded in a single season. He also won the 1977 AL Cy Young award.
• Jack Chesbro - Happy Jack set the single season record for wins as a Yankee (41) in 1904 that still stands today. Went 128-93 as a Yankee with an ERA+ of 109 (9% better than league average).  
• Allie Reynolds - Superchief excelled as a swingman late in his career. In 1952 he led the league in ERA and shutouts while also earning six saves.  He made five all star teams.
• Herb Pennock - Pennock was the ace of the Ruth teams in the 1920's. In eleven years he went 162-90 with an ERA+ of 114. He was inducted into the HOF in 1948.
• Bob Shawkey - Shawkey ranks 7th all time in WAR as a Yankee pitcher. He won 20 games five times and led the league in ERA once. His ERA + in pinstripes is 117.
• Mel Stottlemyre - I'm surprised Mel didn't make the original team but he was a member of some mediocre Yankee squads. He won 20 games three times but also led the league in losses twice. His ERA+ as a Yankee is 112 and he's 8th in team history in pitcher WAR.

I'll put a poll up on the home page. Pick the two pitchers you feel should make the team.

Updated poll results: Herb Pennock and Jack Chesbro were the top two vote getters thus earning the final two spots on the Yankee pitching staff.

All Time All Stars - NY Yankees

Before the days of Nintendo, kids (and adults) had to find ways to entertain themselves during the rainy days of summer and the cold days of winter. In the 1970's my dad and uncle gravitated to two specific games.  Sports Illustrated created a board game for college football and for Major League Baseball.  The MLB version had two formats: the single season and the All Time All Stars.  The single season games were nice but playing as the All Time All Stars could be really fun.  Imagine how cool it was to play as the Yankees.  Try building a lineup where you get to include Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle. Joe DiMaggio too. Yogi Berra! Well, a lot of time has passed since SI put out this game and I've begun doing a little exercise where I update the rosters for each team and maybe even add the expansion teams.
I started with the Yankees and for roster spots that I'm having trouble with I'll put a poll up asking for input.  The guidelines for roster construction are:

• Each team must be composed of fifteen (15) position players and ten (10) pitchers.
• At least one pitcher must be a relief pitcher
• Each position must have at least two players on the roster who can capably fill it.  Think of this as having a starter and a backup. 
• At least one player chosen to represent a position must have played that position as their primary defensive position.  For instance, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth cannot be chosen as the only two representatives at first base since neither played there for the majority of their career.
• Players must have been active no earlier than 1901.  I chose 1901 since that was the first year of the American League.  We need a cutoff at some point and this seemed logical to me. If a player accumulated stats prior to 1901 (Cy Young for instance) these stats will be disregarded.
• To be eligible for a position a player must have played one full season as a starter there or 10% of his career games.  The same goes for starting and relieving.
• The team a player represents should be the one that makes the most sense for that player. For instance, Alex Rodriguez has played for three teams but he's played 300 more games as a Yankee than a Mariner. He won an MVP as a Yankee and has more career WAR as a Yankee.  Therefore, he's going to be on the Yankee roster.
• Batter handedness should not impact the players chosen.

With those guidelines set, let's get started.

2012 MLB Preview: Predictions

It's a little late but I've decided to publish my preseason predictions anyway.

American League
East
New York	96	66	Have a solid rotation to match formidable offense
Tampa Bay	92	70	Maybe the best rotation in baseball
Boston	87	75	Lack of depth will cost them
Toronto	85	77	Still building but no playoffs in this division
Baltimore	68	94	Future is bright but rotation is worst in AL
Central
Detroit	91	71	Will lead the league in runs scored, errors
Cleveland	80	82	Need one more starter to be a factor
Chicago	77	85	Rios, Dunn rebound but Peavy, bullpen falter
Kansas City	76	86	Still waiting on young pitching to make impact
Minnesota	62	100	Questions about Mauer, Morneau, Baker linger
West
Texas	95	67	Most well rounded team in AL
LAA	89	73	Still have problems at LF, 3B, C
Seattle	73	89	Back end of rotation no match for AL offenses
Oakland	70	92	Cespedes and Weeks are good but not enough
National League
East
Atlanta	87	75	Heyward bounceback, trade of Lowe is enough
Philadelphia	86	76	Injuries to Howard, Utley hold team back
Miami	84	78	Poor outfield defense really hurts in new park
Washington	82	80	Too many questions on offense
New York	75	87	Not as bad as many expected
Central
Milwaukee	88	74	Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum combine for 54 wins
Cincinnati	87	75	Votto, Bruce lead league in teammate HR
St. Louis	84	78	Berkman, Beltran not as good as 2011
Pittsburgh	76	86	Deadline deals prevent team from reaching .500
Chicago	69	93	Theo's first year will be his worst
Houston	50	112	Have questions everywhere except 2B, LF
West
San Francisco	91	71	Great pitching and good offense takes division
Arizona	90	72	Upton, Young become top NL outfield duo
Colorado	78	84	Tulo accumulates more WAR than any 2 'mates
Los Angeles	77	85	Disgruntled Ethier, Kemp regression hurt team
San Diego	75	87	Hang tough thanks to home field advantage

2012 MLB Preview: AL East

Every year there is talk about how baseball should approach realignment to make it more fair for the other teams in the American League East division.  "Who can compete when you've got teams tripling the payroll of the other teams?" they say.  The Yankees and Red Sox are two of the most successful teams in baseball right now and it's no coincidence that they're the two big spenders, too. But frugal Tampa Bay has had success right along with them of late and looks to be there again this season as well.  Now Toronto's rebuild is beginning to bear fruit and after finishing with a winning record last season, the team looks to take the next step with some exciting young players.  Baltimore is in the middle of what seems like a never ending rebuilding process but there are beginning to be signs of changes for the positive.  All of these factors make this a division to watch this summer.  The Yankees and Red Sox are not invulnerable meaning maybe it's someone else's time for a change.  This should end all that nonsense about "fairness" and realignment.

Baltimore Orioles

2011 Record: 69-93

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $97 million
Highest Paid Player: Nick Markakis - $12 million
Best Player: Catcher Matt Wieters broke out last season but I believe the best is yet to come.
Best Pitcher: Jake Arrieta gets the nod over Brian Matusz here simply because of how awful Matusz was last season.
Say Hello To: Darren O'Day RP, Taylor Teagarden C, Endy Chavez OF, Jai Miller OF, Wilson Betemit 3B, Armando Galarraga SP, Ronny Paulino C, Jason Hammel SP, Matt Lindstrom RP, Nick Johnson 1B
Wave Goodbye: Craig Tatum RP (Hou), Vladimir Guerrero (Japan), Cesar Izturis SS (Mil), Luke Scott DH (TB), Jo-Jo Reyes SP (Pit), Jeremy Guthrie SP (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. What is the organizational plan? The team believes by abstaining from big name free agents and allocating that money to player development through the draft and via international signees they'll be able to build a better foundation that will allow for prolonged success.  The only problem with this method is it takes a long time to see results.

2. Is Brian Matusz's career as an effective big leaguer over? That's a little harsh but there are reasons to be concerned. Whispers about work ethic may not be unfounded but the bigger question is why did his velocity and command slip so much last season? If he posts another year like 2011 he'll go from elite prospect to bust in less than two years.

3. What's the latest on Brian Roberts' health?  In May of last season Roberts hit his head sliding into first base and suffered a severe concussion.  He missed the rest of the season and has not participated in live games in spring training.  The team is likely optimistic he'll play soon since they put him on the 15 day DL and not the 60 day DL.

Expectations: It's going to be another losing season thanks to being in a stacked division.  If the young pitchers can take a step forward there will be reason for optimism, otherwise the team will be going backwards - not a good sign when you're already in last place.

Matt Wieters is another example of how it often takes a catcher
 longer than the average hitter to develop his offensive skills.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Reimold LF

2. Johnson DH

3. Markakis RF

4. Jones CF
5. Wieters C

6. Hardy SS

7. Reynolds 3B

8. Davis 1B
9. Andino 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Arrieta
2. Hammel
3. Chen
4. Hunter
5. Matusz

CL: Johnson

MLB Predictions: AL East

Wow, I apologize to my readers for not having posted this prior to the start of the season.  Time has really gotten away from me. I'll do my best to get my predictions up for the season in the next few days. Each year I do a season preview for each team but this year I've decided to amend it a bit in order to make it easier to read and easier for me to compile.

Boston Red Sox
Best Player: Kevin Youkilis is the guy I'd most like to have in real life. Carl Crawford in fantasy.
Best Pitcher: Jon Lester
Best off-season move:  Signing Carl Crawford to a 7 year mega-contract and trading for 1B Adrian Gonzalez tie for the best move.
Biggest off-season loss: Adrian Beltre
Biggest Concerns:
1. Team defense.  Although Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent defensive player, having Youkilis slide back over to 3B where he did not play last season hurts a little bit. Also Crawford is probably wasted in left field 81 times this year due to the Green Monster and Jacoby Ellsbury does not rate well at all in center field.
2. Will Varitek and Saltalamacchia hit?
3. Can Josh Beckett rebound or is he now a back-end of the rotation pitcher?
Expectations: If Boston fails to reach the playoffs heads will roll.  On paper this is the best team in baseball and expectations are that they will reach the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Crawford LF
4. Youkilis 3B
5. Gonzalez 1B
6. Ortiz DH
7. Cameron RF
8. Saltalamacchia C
9. Scutaro SS
SP Jon Lester

3 Team Blockbuster: Is the winner who you think?

I'm only going to blog a short bit on this because the media is probably going to overly analyze it.

Yankees get: Curtis Granderson CF

Granderson is considered a superstar by many though that is inaccurate. He has decent pop, plays very good defense, and is still fleet of foot. The problem is his complete inability to hit left-handed pitching. A .600 OPS isn't going to get it done. I just heard someone on ESPN say that part of Granderson's appeal is his personality. He's a guy everyone will love talking to and can handle any media market. For once I agree with you, ESPN. Touche.

Diamondbacks get: Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson

Why Arizona felt the need to become involved in a trade like this is somewhat baffling. Trading five years of Scherzer for Edwin Jackson fresh off a career year is puzzling. The only thing that I can conjure up is that Arizona feels there's an excessive inherent injury risk associated with him. Despite failing miserably in 2008, Ian Kennedy is worth taking a flier on. Sure he flopped in New York the first time around but he could be a fine back-end starter in the JV league.

Tigers get: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, Austin Jackson

If you're going to trade your best and most marketable player you better get something good in return. Luckily for the Tigers it appears they did just that. Austin Jackson was the Yankees #1 prospect in 2009 and will be expected to immediately step in to fill Granderson's shoes. Scherzer could go one of two ways. He could figure things out and be one of the top starters in the AL or get moved to the bullpen and become a dominant reliever. Schlereth is probably going to end up in the bullpen also but should be an excellent reliever. He's still a prospect so if Detroit wants to give him another go as a starter you couldn't blame them. Phil Coke is a failed starter that should be a LOOGY in the pen.

Verdict: The Tigers are probably the big winners here. Picking up four players who can step in and help the team contend for a division crown for a combined 22 years is an impressive haul. The fact that the team is saving almost $15 million makes this a huge win for the franchise.

With free agents Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui questionable to return, the Yankees get the missing piece to their outfield while giving up only #1 prospect and fringe arm. The only negative is if Granderson's production begins to tail off as he ages, it could become a bit of an albatross. Either way I think this move propels them back to the World Series.

Arizona gets a solid mid-rotation starter who last season threw harder than everyone else in the AL and a finesse pitcher whose skills were once overrated. I don't think we'll be able to properly analyze this trade for the Diamondbacks for several years. I'm not ready to call them the big loser just yet, but it would not be surprising if they end up that way.

Swisher traded to Yankees

One word that you cannot use to describe Kenny Williams' off-season plans is predictable.

Today the Sox traded Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira to the Yankees for minor league pitchers Jeffrey Marquez, Jhonny Nunez, and INF Wilson Betemit.

First let's take a look some of the prospects involved in this deal*:

Jeffrey Marquez -14 GS, 80.2 IP, 93 H, 24 BB, 33 K, 4.69 ERA, 1.45 WHIP @ AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barr

Breaking down the #'s: The 24 yr old Marquez struck out  only 3.68/9IP(!) last season to go along with a 1.4 K:BB ratio.  Now the ratio is not bad in itself and it appears he has good control, but 3.68 K's per 9 in AAA? That is absurdly low.  His ERA is also deceiving as he allowed only 4.69 earned runs.  His actual runs per 9 (RAA) was 5.69.  That coupled with 10.38 hits/9 and we have the Carlos Silva of AAA.

Value: Nada

Jhonny Nunez - 34 G, 17 GS, 108.3 IP, 113 H, 33 BB, 116 K, 4.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP @ AA Potomac & Trenton

Breaking down the #'s: At first glance Nunez's line doesn't look overwhelming.  One should expect a 23 yr old to be putting up those numbers in AA.  The catch comes when you look what he did once moved to the bullpen.  In 13 games as a reliever in the Yankee system, Nunez posted a K rate of 11.2/9 and a 2.9:1 K:BB ratio.  That's impressive. ERA and WHIP are less significant for relievers due to the small sample of innings they pitch.  His peripheral stats look good, however, so it appears he may have found a successful role as a reliever.

Value: A big league reliever with the potential to pitch high-leverage innings.

Kanekoa Texeira - 51 G, 61 IP, 46 H, 21 BB, 60 K, 1.33 ERA @ A Wintson-Salem & AA Birmingham

Breaking down the #'s: The 1.33 ERA jumps out until you realize his RAA is 2.21.  Still not bad. A good K rate of 8.85/9 and only allowed 6.79 H/9.  That appears to be a little lucky especially with minor league defenses behind him. 

Value: If Texeira can maintain his K rate as he moves through the minors there could be some potential but he still has a long way to go. 

So what exactly are the Sox getting here?  

Betemit: Switch hitting, utility infielder who has an .814 OPS vs RHP over the last 3yrs 

Marquez: Possible mop-up man out of the bullpen (please no)

Nunez: Potential big-league reliever capable of pitching in the late innings.

And the Yankees:

Swisher: A switch-hitting, versatile OF in the prime of his career coming off his worst season.

Texeira: Young RP that might pan out as a low-leverage RP.

If I'm a White Sox fan I gotta scratch my head here.  Sure there was a logjam of 1b/DH/Corner OF with Konerko, Swish, Dye, Quentin, and Jim Thome, but didn't it work out ok last season?  Konerko and Thome don't exactly embody the standard on which good health should be judged and Swisher is still young, signed relatively cheaply, AND able to play CF.  The Sox are going to miss his OBP, his power, his defensive versatility, and quite possibly his personality.

If Swisher hits .250 next year this trade is going to be an easy win for the Yankees.