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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Let's do this a different way

Predicting what seeds teams will earn is an exercise in futility right now. Too many games still need to be played, and while I can give each team a seed for where they stand right now, it's not necessarily likely they'll keep that seed by the time the tournament starts in two weeks.  Instead, I've decided to do a conference run down of who is locked in in order to see how many bubble spots are available. Once this is done we will have a greater understanding of the pecking order and what needs to be done for these bubble teams to get in.

Thirty two (32) of the 68 available spots are determined via automatic bid.  The other thirty six spots are up for at-large consideration. Several of these teams are already locks. The ones that aren't are considered "bubble" teams.
Below is a list of current conference leaders in line to receive their conference's auto bid:
1. America East: Vermont
2. Atlantic 10: Xavier
3. ACC: Duke
Continued after the jump.

4. Atlantic Sun: Belmont
5. Big 12: Texas
6. Big East: Pittsburgh
7. Big Sky: Northern Colorado
8. Big South: Coastal Carolina
9. Big 10: Ohio St.
10. Big West: Long Beach St.
11. Colonial: George Mason
12. Conference USA: UAB
13. Great West: Utah Valley
14. Horizon League: Milwaukee
15. Ivy: Princeton
16. MAAC: Fairfield
17. MAC: Kent St.
18. MEAC: Bethune-Cookman
19. MVC: Missouri St.
20. Mountain West: BYU
21. Northeast: Long Island
22. Ohio Valley: Murray St.
23. Pac 10: Arizona
24. Patriot League: Bucknell
25. SEC: Florida
26. Southern: Charleston
27. Southland: McNeese St.
28. SWAC: Texas Southern
29. Summit: Oakland
30. Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic
31. WCC: St. Mary's
32. WAC: Utah St.

Now for the locks (in no specific order):
Villanova, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, West Virginia, St. John's, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, Wisconsin, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, San Diego St., UNLV, Temple - 22 teams
These teams should be in barring a late season collapse:
Michigan St., Kansas St., Old Dominion, Florida St., Washington, Marquette - 6 teams

This leaves 8 spots available for teams to grab.  Here's how they stand as I see it:
1. Illinois- @Purdue, Indiana
2. Butler - earned #2 seed in Horizon Tournament
3. Virginia Tech - Boston College, @Clemson
4. Alabama - @Florida, Georgia
5. Gonzaga - Cal St. Bakersfield
6. Georgia - LSU, @Alabama
7. Richmond - @St. Joe's, Duquesne
8. Colorado St. - Utah, @SDSU
9. Minnesota - @Northwestern, Penn St.
10. Penn St. - Ohio St., @Minnesota
11. VCU - earned #4 seed in Colonial Tournament
12. Memphis - @East Carolina, Tulane

A few other teams haven't quite been eliminated but need deep runs in their respective tournaments to qualify: Michigan, Colorado, Boston College, Duquesne, Baylor

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