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Monday, February 21, 2011

My guess at the current bracket

In the last post I did a rundown of all the major conferences (plus Ivy) and listed where the teams hoping for an NCAA bid stand. Now it's time to put some sense into that post and attempt to create a bracket.

1's
1. Ohio St. (25-2, 12-2) - #3 in the RPI and their only two losses are on the road to undefeated home teams
2. Duke (25-2, 12-1) - Most top 100 wins in the country
3. Pittsburgh (24-3, 12-2) - 6-2 against the top 25 in the RPI
4. Texas (23-4, 11-1) - Get the tiebreaker over Kansas due to leading the Big 12
2's
1. Kansas (25-2, 10-2) - If they win the Big 12 Tournament without a stumble inbetween, they'll pass Texas
2. San Diego St. (27-1, 12-1) - Need to beat BYU this week to have thoughts of moving up
3. BYU (25-2, 11-1) - Not sure they can get a #1 seed with their remaining schedule
4. Notre Dame (21-5, 10-4) - 8-4 vs. top 50 teams
3's
1. Purdue (22-5, 11-3) - Mediocre road record (7-5) prevents them from grabbing the last 2 seed
2. Florida (21-5, 10-2) - Don't think they can get a 2 but seem nearly locked in here
3. Wisconsin (20-6, 10-4) - No shame for being 3rd in Big10. Conference tourney is key
4. Georgetown (21-6, 10-5) - This seed goes to whoever finishes 2nd in the Big East
4's
1. North Carolina (20-6, 10-2) - Still play FSU & Duke. Wins there move them up to perhaps the second 3 seed
2. Arizona (23-4, 12-2) - Lead the Pac10 but just 2-3 against top RPI top 50
3. UConn (20-6, 8-6) - Despite losing to Louisville, they're still hanging on here. 7-6 vs top 50
4. Villanova (21-7, 9-6) Loss to Syracuse may move them off this line before the week is over

Remember, this is how I think the committee would seed these teams.  Tomorrow I'll work on the 5-8's which is where things start to get tricky.

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