2011 Trade Deadline - Big Moves

So, this afternoon is the trade deadline. I expect there will be a flurry of minor moves (relief pitchers) to happen around noon today but there have already been some big trades that I'll quickly recap below.

Phillies acquire Hunter Pence from Houston for prospects Jarred Cosart SP, Jonathan Singleton 1b, Josh Zeid RP, and PTBNL

This move was a bit of a surprise to me. Pence is a good player but that's all.  To obtain him Philadelphia gave up three of their top 25 prospects though none of them is a sure thing.  The part that makes this deal interesting is that Pence is likely to earn more than $10 million through arbitration next season and then will likely get even more than that in 2013.  Basically, he's about to get really expensive. Still, he's a good right-handed hitter and strong defender in right field who will help the Phillies.

Houston, in my opinion, could have done better. Yes, they got three good prospects but since Cosart and Singleton are still in A-ball there is still quite a bit of risk associated with them. I would have tried to get more of a sure thing when trading my best player.

Giants acquire OF Carlos Beltran NY Mets for SP Zack Wheeler and cash
The Giants offense has been absolutely putrid this season. Part of that is due to managment's misconception that Aubrey Huff represents an upgrade over top prospect Brandon Belt but it's also due to the fact that their offense just isn't any good.  Putting Beltran in the lineup gives this team an everyday hitter opponents will actually have to be wary of.

For a player who would be a free agent in a couple of months, the Mets did very well here. Plus, Beltran has a clause in his contract preventing any team from offering arbitration (thereby preventing the team from gaining compensation picks when he leaves as a FA). From the scouting reports I've read, Zack Wheeler is still very raw but his ceiling is that of an All-Star major leaguer.  Good haul for the Mets.

White Sox trade SP Edwin Jackson, 4C Mark Teahen to Toronto for RP Jason Frasor, SP Zach Stewart
Kenny Williams said he wanted to shed salary and he did ($7.2 million for Teahen this year!).  Edwin Jackson was having a good season but Mark Teahen has been a large disappointment since coming to Chicago.  In exchange the Sox receive a good reliever in Frasor and an intriguing prospect in Stewart. This is a pretty darn good trade for the Sox in my opinion.
After this trade was finalized the Blue Jays made another move:

Blue Jays trade SP Edwin Jackson, RP Mark Rzepczynski, RP Octavio Dotel, OF Corey Patterson to St. Louis for CF Colby Rasmus, RP Trever Miller, RP Brian Tallet, RP P.J. Walters

It's been no secret Tony LaRussa is not the biggest fan of Colby Rasmus. Why that is, I'm sure only the Cardinals organization knows. Additionally, the Cardinals rid themselves of a couple of relievers they weren't using and a prospect who is no longer one (Walters).  The return is just okay. Rzepczynski is a pretty effective lefty who can get guys out from both sides of the plate and is under team control until 2015. Octavio Dotel is decent against righties but shouldn't be counted on in the late innings. Why they took on Corey Patterson I have no idea. I guess he can spot start in center since Rasmus is gone.

I could write an essay on how well I think Toronto did in their two trades. Rasmus has a big fan in this blog, so I guess now we're big fans of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  Trever Miller and PJ Walters are not expected to play significant roles for the Jays and were likely just included because that's what it took to get this deal done.  Brian Tallet, when he comes off the DL, could have some value though. The amazing part is how they managed to get rid of Patterson since he wasn't even a rostered player in spring training. Now, he's been included in one of the biggest deals of the year.  In total Toronto traded four relief pitchers, a decent pitching prospect, and Patterson for Colby Rasmus and Tehean's contract. This took a lot of creativity and flexibility that not all GMs have. Great work by Anthopoulos.

Catching up with the CF prospects of 2009

Two years ago I wrote a post about the top center field prospects in baseball.  In that post I gave a basic rundown of the skills each player was expected to bring to the table as well as my best guess as to win they'd make their MLB debut.  In September I revisited the issue with an overview of how each player fared during the 2009 season but I've failed to look at these guys as a collective group since.  I've been in a bit of a rut so why not bring it up now?

Below I've ranked the eight players discussed in the two previous installments by their performance thus far (along with their career totals).

Andrew McCutchen, Pit: 326 G .287/.370/.465 75 2B, 16 3B, 38 HR, 67/87 SB, 10.9 WAR
McCutchen continues to exceed my expectations. After finishing a distant fourth in ROY voting in 2009, he duplicated his success in 2010 showing everyone it was no fluke.  This year he's elevated his game to a whole new level. He's already mashed 10 HR and stolen 12 bases while improving his defense to the point where not winning a gold glove would be a gross oversight by the voters. As of today he ranks third in the National League in WAR meaning he's achieved superstar status. Give the man a raise!

Drew Stubbs, Cin: 261 G .261/.333/.435 37 2B, 8 3B, 39 HR, 60/72 SB, 9.4 WAR
Once allowed to play everyday, Stubbs immediately brought power and speed to the lineup. Last season he hit 22 home runs and stole 30 bases. Not bad for a guy playing in his first full season. And currently, he leads the NL in runs scored although that is more a result of him being installed as the leadoff hitter than him being a great on-base man.  I noted earlier he plays excellent defense but he's actually better than that. While defensive stats are often questionable for single season data, Stubbs earned 5.2 defensive WAR last year alone! Whether that's perfectly accurate or not, it puts him in the category of Defensive God.

Colby Rasmus, StL: 355 G .264/.340/.448 62 2B, 11 3B, 44 HR, 20/30 SB, 7.1 WAR
I have not changed my stance on him one bit. This guy is going to be great. Luckily for Cardinal fans he's not far away from achieving it.  In 2008 he hit 16 home runs but only had a .307 on-base percentage to go along with his .407 slugging percentage. He did play a very good center field and put up a total WAR of 2.8.  Last season he was even better and hit 23 home runs while upping his percentages to .276/.361/.498. His defense did slip but he still put up 4.3 WAR - an excellent number for a center fielder. The only nitpick right now is he still struggles versus left-handed pitching.

Austin Jackson, Det: 218 G .282/.338/.393 47 2B, 15 3B, 7 HR, 37/45 SB, 4.7 WAR
Jackson narrowly lost out on winning the A.L. Rookie of the Year last season. A hot start catapulted his candidacy early but he couldn't avoid a summer fade. Jackson hit 34 doubles and 10 triples last year while stealing 27 bases. Speed has never been an issue but contact is as he also led the league with 170 whiffs last year. An average defensive player, as long as Jackson maintains his speed he'll be valuable. If he can up his walk to strikeout ratio (47:170) he'll be even more than that.

Cameron Maybin, SD: 220 G .251/.317.390 32 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR, 26/33 SB, 3.1 WAR
It seems like forever ago when Maybin made his debut with the Tigers, right? That was 2007 and he's been traded twice since then. Now in San Diego and still only 24, Maybin appears to have landed with an organization whose willing to let him learn through his struggles instead of sending him back down to AAA. He's never been expected to hit for average but he'll need to up his walk rate for teams to take him seriously.  There is power there but that's just one of the many aspects of his game that remains inconsistent. I can't say what to expect out of him anymore but I think at worst he can stick around in the league as a fourth outfielder.

Dexter Fowler, Col: 337 G .255/.349/.391 62 2B, 29 3B, 10 HR, 42/66 SB, 2.1 WAR
Fowler is a guy I was convinced would turn out to be an impact player. With his gap power and excellent speed, I felt like he was the perfect fit for Coors Field. Though he did lead the league with 14 triples in 2010, Fowler has really struggled since becoming a starter in 2009. He's still not a great base stealer and he's prone to stretches where he makes no contact (100+ strikeouts in '08 & '09 and 66 already this year).  Fowler desperately needs to find consistency or the Rockies may be forced to look elsewhere for a player who will provide more help to their playoff aspirations.

Michael Saunders, Sea: 191 G .203/.270/.318 17 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 14/20 SB, -0.3 WAR
No offense to Mr. Saunders but this is the one guy I wasn't sold on as a prospect.  Too many swings and misses with a below average walk rate meant he'd have to play good defense to stick. Unfortunately for Saunders, the Mariners have an elite defensive center fielder in Franklin Gutierrez, so Saunders was moved to left.  Newsflash sports fans: Michael Saunders doesn't hit well enough to be an everyday left fielder. Compounding matters is the fact that his GM is feeling a lot of pressure from the owner to put a competitive team on the field which likely reduces the amount of time Saunders has to prove himself. I'm sure he'll have a season or two where he manages to hit .250 with 20-25 home runs but that could be several years down the road and not in Seattle.

Jordan Schafer, Atl: 68 G .209/.312/.297 10 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9/12 SB, -0.7 WAR
When Schafer was sent back to the minors in 2009 it was revealed he had a significant wrist injury that he tried to play through.  That injury not only cost him experience, it appears to have altered the type of player he will become. He no longer smokes line drives to the gaps or rips balls down the lines for extra bases. Instead he's relying more on speed; improving his bunting technique and excelling as a runner. Not that it's bad, but his defense hasn't been quite at the level that was expected either. A player with this skill set can play in the majors it just likely won't be with Atlanta. Still, with an injuries to the Braves outfielders an opportunity has presented itself for him to showcase his worth and prove his doubters wrong.

MLB Prospect Watch: CF

While college basketball braces itself for the final stretch of conference play, ball players and fans alike are flocking to Florida and Arizona.  That's right, spring training has begun!  One of the things I'm most intrigued by is the possibility of seeing as many as eight rookie center fielders break camp with their big league club.  Although that number is a bit far-fetched, what is likely is seeing three or four earn opening day nods as the new starters.  Here's a quick glance at who I'm talking about:

• Colby Rasmus, StL: Rasmus is probably the best center field prospect in the game.  He is a true five tool player who's defense is excellent.  He did struggle for the first half last year in AAA but his second half showed he figured things out.  I fully expect this guy to be a perennial all-star.  The Cardinals must think he's ready because Skip Schumaker has been working out at second base with the release of Adam Kennedy.  With Rasmus on the roster, Rick Ankiel will likely move to right field giving the Cards possibly the best outfield in the division.
• Dexter Fowler, Col: Ryan Spilborghs is not the answer.  Fowler is the organization's top prospect and last year was given a September call up.  He doesn't have a lot of power but is blazing fast and plays good defense--an essential quality for that massive outfield.  Fowler's main competitor is probably Carlos Gonzalez but having Gonzalez in one of the corners seems to make more sense.  I see Fowler as the team's opening day leadoff hitter as well.
• Cameron Maybin, Fla: Most die-hards will remember Maybin as the focal point of the package the Marlins received from Detroit for Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera.  After struggling to find a center fielder the last couple of years (Cody Ross can only hit like a CFer), the Marlins are poised to call up their man.  The strikeouts will always be a concern but the power and flashy leather are MLB ready.  Put him in the middle of the order and watch him grow.  He's as good as Mike Cameron right now.  
• Andrew McCutcheon, Pit: The Pirates are keeping mum on where McCutcheon will start the season.  It seems likely they want him to earn his place.  The Pirates defense will improve significantly when he's out there since Nate McLouth is an awful defensive center fielder.  If McCutcheon doesn't earn an opening day nod he'll be sent back to AAA so he can play every day.  I think he makes the team.

Here's a few guys that are likely to debut and stick with the team some time during the summer:

• Drew Stubbs, Cin: Another excellent defensive center fielder.  He has shortened his swing to improve his contact rate.  Even though it has resulted in limited his power it has n improved his on base percentage.  He also has the speed to steal 50 bases.  With Jay Bruce entrenched in right and future hall of shamer Wily Taveras in center, I think Stubbs is up by July.
• Jordan Schafer, Atl: Schafer is probably most known for his 50 game suspension last year after he was linked to purchasing HGH.  That is now behind him so hopefully he will let his skills do the talking.  He has plus power, a good batting eye, above average speed, and is probably the best defensive center fielder in the minors.  That being said, he still struggles against lefties and tends to have slow starts reminiscent of Ryne Sandberg.  If Atlanta calls him up it won't be until someone has proven they can't handle being an every day starter (Francouer?).  I think he comes up in July-August.
• Austin Jackson, NYY: Being pimped as the #1 prospect for the most famous baseball team in the world can't be easy, but Jackson has worked his way to the point where he's worth getting a chance in spring training.  He's not a great defender but has decent power and good speed.  Melky Cabrera, you have been warned.
• Michael Saunders, Sea: Last season was Saunders' worst as a professional but the skills are there.  He has a good batting eye and lots of power.  Tacoma tends to be a difficult environment for offense so his stats look worse than they are.  If he has a solid first half I could see him getting called up to the bigs to form an outfield with Ichiro and Franklyn Gutierrez.  Wladimier Balentien probably gets moved to 1b/DH in that scenario. He's not the next centerpiece of a franchise like Griffey or ARod but this is exactly the type of player you want to build around if you're Seattle.

Am I forgetting anyone?  What do you think of the current list?  Please post your thoughts in the comments section.