Early Observations

We've played about four weeks of college basketball thus far and the world is already abuzz about how incredible these freshmen are, that Kentucky's already a disappointment, and that maybe the Big Ten is the best conference again this year. The new rules are being enforced causing several teams to struggle while other have found a way to exploit them.  It's still early but here are a few of my observations as the first holiday tournaments get going.

Five Surprising Teams

1. UMass - I had no expectations for the Minutemen entering the season and

   

   Who can stop this guy?

   I considered them an NIT team at best.  They've only played two home games out of six (the other four were on neutral courts) yet have an unblemished record.  Their wins have come over BC, LSU, Youngstown State, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Clemson.  The last two got my attention. Color me impressed.
2. Pittsburgh - Pitt's best win thus far is a 21 point shellacking over Stanford on a neutral site.  And that's my point; this team is 6-0 and their closest win was 19 points. Things are looking good.
3. Dayton - They lost to Baylor by one last night but are 5-1 on the season with an impressive win over Gonzaga on Monday.  I thought they might be the second best team in the A-10 prior to the season and now I feel more confident in that pick.  They have a few more challenging games on the docket before the regular season begins. Keep this team in mind in March.
4. Nebraska - They're just 4-2 so far with losses to Dayton and UAB.  Still, the style of play has been effective and they're forcing opponents to shoot tough shots while defending the rim better than maybe anyone else. Offensively they're not turning the ball over and are hitting 37% of their threes. I'm not sure this can last but the team is better than I expected.
5. Wichita State - Everyone should know the Shockers by now. I'm not surprised they're MVC favorites but I am surprised at how well they're playing. This team lost three seniors from last year and I'm not aware of any impact freshmen on the roster.  Last night's thirteen point win over BYU was a statement win.  They've also got dates with St. Louis, Tennessee, and Alabama that warrant our attention. Gregg Marshall is one heck of a coach.

Five Disappointing Teams

1. Georgetown - What. the. #%&*?  Georgetown was many people's pick to win the new Big East. So far they're not inspiring anyone. A loss to Oregon is not a big deal, but Northeastern?  Sure, they beat VCU but are we sure VCU is as good as the pollsters say?  This team fouls too much and until they fix that they'll find themselves letting teams they should be putting away hanging around for far too long.
2. Kansas State - Okay Illinois fans, maybe you were right.  Year two in the Bruce Weber era is not off to a good start and I'm dubious this ship is going to be righted.  Their best win is over Oral Roberts and have lost to No. Colorado, Charlotte, and Georgetown.  Let's see what happens on December 5th when they face Ole Miss. That might make or break their season.
3. North Carolina State - How do you lose to North Carolina Central at home? This team also lost by double digits to Cincinnati and doesn't have a quality win so far.  They get Northwestern at home in the Big10/ACC Challenge.  Since we already know Northwestern's a bottom tier Big Ten team, seeing how they fare in that game should be a good measuring stick. 
4. Virginia Tech - Lost at home to South Carolina Upstate, lost on a neutral site to Michigan State by 19, and lost in a pseudo-road game to Seton Hall.  The defense just hasn't been up to snuff and makes me think the ACC's bottom half is going to drag the entire conference RPI down.
5. Marquette - How do you only score 35 at home? Granted, Ohio State is a tough defense but 35 at home? Inexcusable.  Losing at Arizona State by two is a tough luck loss and not one to dwell on. This team is talented but that home loss still has me shaking my head.

The five best players so far are...

1. Jabari Parker - Duke: Parker has been incredible. He's hit over 60% of his threes, is getting to the line, and he's doing this in about 30 minutes a game.  Some say he reminds them of Grant Hill - I'm inclined to think he's more like Antoine Walker - but right now he looks like the first overall pick in the NBA draft.
2. Marcus Smart - Oklahoma State: Did we all see what he did against Memphis last week? Who can guard him in college? He's 6'4" and built sort of like LeBron.  He's quick enough to get by his man into the lane and he's improved his jump shot enough to where he doesn't have to drive on most plays. This is why he's averaging 21 points a game so far.
3. Doug McDermott - Creighton: Mr. Efficiency himself. Dougie fresh is hitting 79% on his freebies, 57% on his twos, and 50% of his threes.  The man may never be a great professional player but he reminds me so much of Wally Szczerbiak in that he can literally hit any shot.
4. Jahii Carson - Arizona State: Carson is 5'10" yet most of his shots are layups.  He's so quick that he can get by anybody.  The sophomore is also hitting 56% of his three pointers and is averaging over 5 assists a game.  He even put up 40 points against UNLV. Wowzah.
5. Tim Frazier - Penn State: Is it possible Frazier's a better shooter than he was pre-injury? The early returns have me thinking yes.  His per game averages thus far are 16 points, 7 assists, plus four rebounds and two steals.  He's really really good.

And finally, the best five teams to date are:

1. Oklahoma State - Marcus Smart is really good and he's got some good wingmen. 
2. Michigan State - I really like this team and think they're the class of the Big Ten but I'm not sure how much better they can get.
3. Arizona - They haven't played anyone significant yet but I'm impressed with what I've seen.  Don't forget about their super freshman Aaron Gordon either.
4. Kansas - The win over Duke was impressive but I don't think this team's hit their groove yet. It's going to be quite a battle for the top in the Big 12.
5. Pitt - I've already talked about these guys.  The new ACC is going to be interesting to say the least.

Bracket Buster Weekend 2012

BracketBuster weekend provides an opportunity that many Mid-majors would be without otherwise.  

Notching another key win to impress the selection committee can go a long way on Selection Sunday.  These matchups also provide a chance for us to compare conferences; to see how one conference stacks up with another.  This may not matter in the case of the fifth place MVC team vs. the fifth place Horizon team but it does for second and third place teams fighting for bubble spots.  

VCU kicked off the weekend by kicking Northern Iowa around.  UNI was starting to play better of late and a win there could really have gone a long way.  VCU brings some credibility back to the Colonial, a league that has taken some criticism this season for not performing as well as it had the past few seasons.

With the good, there's also the bad.  Several schools have tenuous position on the bubble and a bad loss not only knocks them off but permanently pops their chances at securing an at-large bid.  Still, this is an exciting weekend that every college basketball fan should enjoy.

Below I've previewed the five games I'm looking the most forward to on Saturday and Sunday.  

1. St. Mary's (23-4) @ Murray St. (25-1)

Murray State's loss to Tennessee St. last week takes some luster off what would have been the most hyped game of the weekend.  St. Mary's is the best team in the WCC and would like to make a statement on the road while Murray St. is running away with the Ohio Valley.

Who gains more with win: Murray St. - Their best win is currently a win over Memphis which isn't quite enough when building a case for a mid-level seed from a small conference.

Who loses most with loss: Murray St.- Losing this game will raise some doubts with the committee about how good this team is.  At the very least it needs to be close or the Racers could find themselves with a ten seed or worse in March.

Who wins: St. Mary's 74-69.

2. Wichita St. (23-4) @ Davidson (20-6)

Davidson really opened some eyes with their win over Kansas in December. Wichita St. just beat three of the top teams in the Valley.

Who gains more with win: Wichita St. - If they continue like this they'll earn a nice seed in March.

Who loses most with loss: Davidson - The Wildcats needs this one if their win over Kansas isn't to look like a fluke.

Who wins: Wichita St. attacks the basket better than most teams and it will cause Davidson to get into foul trouble. Shockers win 82-65.

3. Long Beach St. (19-6) @ Creighton (22-5)

LBSU played possibly the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation this year but hasn't walked away with much more than a boost in RPI.  Creighton lost three in a row before beating Southern Illinois last week.  

Who gains more with win: Long Beach St. - A big road win is just what this team needs

Who loses most with loss: Creighton - They're at home and they need to notch another decent win to help erase the memory of their losing streak. A loss here may lead the committee to believe this team already peaked and is on the way down.

Who wins: Home court advantage helps the Bluejays prevail 78-72.

4. Nevada (22-4) @ Iona (21-6)

Nevada's 10-1 in the WAC and looks to slow down the Gaels quick tempo.  Iona has scored 100 points four times this season but lacks a signature win.  The guard play here makes this game one to watch.

Who gains more with win: Iona - A win improves their bubble position dramatically.

Who loses most with loss: Iona - Nevada's likely in either way so Iona needs to take care of business.

Who wins: Iona 80-70.

5. Drexel (22-5) @ Cleveland St. (20-7)

Drexel has won 14 in a row and currently sits atop the CAA standings.  Cleveland St.'s three game losing streak comes at the worst possible time as they've gone from frontrunners to a crowded second place in the Horizon League.

Who gains more with win: Drexel - A win here locks up an at-large bid.

Who loses most with loss: Cleveland St. - A win here and all is not lost for an at-large bid. A loss and they'll need to win the conference tournament for a chance in March.

Who wins: Drexel is on fire and gets it done 63-57.

Mid-major rankings: Ground Hog Day, 2012

There's been quite a shakeup in the Mid-major rankings since the last one came out.  It's nitty gritty time for a lot of these schools and the upcoming Bracketbusters could provide a last chance for statement wins.  Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow won't provide six more weeks to the college basketball season but it also shows that there's still time for teams to build their resumes.  Don't be surprised if a team towards the bottom of this list makes a move around conference tournament time.

St. Mary's has found success recruiting most of their players from Australia.
I wonder, does the ball go around the rim counter-clockwise down there too?

1. Creighton (21-2) – The Bluejays are on a roll and are the best mid-major team in the country right now.  There are still a couple of tricky conference games left but they host Wichita St. and will host Long Beach St. in the Bracketbuster.  
2. St. Mary's (21-2) – While we didn't know much about St. Mary's in the latest Power Rankings, we know plenty now.  They're 10-0 in the WCC and their two losses came at Denver (so-so), and to Baylor (forgiven).  
3. Murray St. (21-0) – Undefeated and untested in conference play, the Racers will host St. Mary's for their Bracketbuster.  If they win an undefeated season will be in their grasp.
4. Harvard (18-2) – The Crimson remain undefeated in the Ivy League though their loss to Fordham in January took a little shine off their resume.
5. Wichita St. (19-4) – Starting 10-2 in the Missouri Valley would get a little more publicity most years but this team still hasn't answered the number one question: can they beat anybody good?  They'll have to win their rematch with Creighton to prove it as their Bracketbuster matchup with Davidson isn't going to provide much help.
6. Gonzaga (17-3) – Gonzaga's a decent school and a good bet to make the dance but don't expect much once there.  Their best win is Xavier and they lost by 19 to St. Mary's.  They have won 12 of their last 13 though.
7. Middle Tennessee (20-3) – I never would've guessed this team would be so successful this season.  They thumped UCLA, split with Belmont, and played a hot Vanderbilt team tough.  They may not earn a good seed in March but they'll give whomever they play quite a game.
8. Long Beach St. (16-6) – Of their six losses five are to at-large teams. They've got wins over Pitt and Xavier so beating Creighton would be icing on the cake. They, too, are undefeated in conference play (Big West).
9. BYU (18-6) – BYU has won every game they're supposed to except one (Loyola) but they're lacking the signature win needed to give their bubble much credential.  With no Bracketbuster on the docket, and still two games with Gonzaga, BYU have little margin for error.
10. Davidson (16-5) – Their win over Kansas likely put them in the NCAA Tournament but they still need to finish strong to keep ahold of an at-large bid.  Wichita St. comes to town in a couple of weeks for another chance at a quality win.
11. VCU (19-5) – VCU lack the quality wins necessary for an at-large berth but they're in a three-way tie for first in the Colonial.  They'll play Northern Iowa for their bracket buster.
12. Cleveland St. (18-4) – The Horizon's most likely bet for representation in the NCAA Tournament, Cleveland St. has won 8 of their last 10 gets to play the two Chicago schools before  their date with Valpo.
13. Akron (15-7) – It looks as if this team is just hitting their stride. They've actually got a couple of decent wins putting them in position for a potential at-large bid if they finish strong.  They can't afford to lose to Oral Roberts in the Bracketbuster.

Just missed: Iona, Belmont, Drexel

Power 16: January 29, 2012

The Racers danced with excitement when I informed them of their inclusion
in my latest Power 16.  This is the type of reaction we like to see here at Sportstemps.

January's nearly over and there's still quite a bit of shuffling going on.  Syracuse finally lost, a third team entered the ACC title discussion (Florida St.), Wisconsin's back making the Big Ten more muddled than ever, and mid-majors are on the rise.  February is the most important month of the year since it's the last chance for teams to grab quality wins before the conference tournaments and mid-majors get to play in Bracket Busters.  This is also the month where the average fan who wants to win money in their bracket pools should begin to pay attention. Read on to see who's moved since the last Power 16.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 50
Syracuse	22-1 (9-1)	4-0
Kentucky	21-1 (7-0)	5-1
Ohio St.	18-3 (6-2)	4-3
North Carolina	17-3 (4-1)	4-3

Though Syracuse lost at Notre Dame, they still sit atop the Big East and are an impressive 4-0 against the RPI top 50 with three of those wins coming against top 25 teams.  Kentucky won a close one last weekend against Alabama and now have a commanding lead in the SEC.  Their only loss remains a one point defeat at Indiana making this team a lock for a 1 seed.  Don't look now but Ohio St. is officially on a roll - playing Nebraska and Penn St. helps - and are sitting in a first place tie with Michigan St. in the Big Ten. UNC moves into the 1's almost by default as Baylor continues to struggle with the best teams.

Conference Power Rankings: Missouri Valley

The Missouri Valley is a conference I enjoy following and this was before I attended one of the schools.  I've always liked the mid-majors but this is a conference whose style is similar to that of the Big Ten.  The tempo is slower than most, defense is emphasized, and rebounding and fundamentals are a must.  Think of it as the Big Ten's little brother.  Though it's been a few seasons since the MVC has made an impact in March, I believe the conference is turning the corner.  This is exemplified by the top two teams Creighton and Wichita St.  If they have success in the NCAA Tournament it's likely the conference will ride the effect for several years much like the Colonial did after George Mason's great run from 2006.

Father and son have been a lethal combination for the 
 Blue Jays this season. Winning Coach and Player of  the Year honors
may be just the beginning of this team's post-season success. 

1. Creighton 18-2 (8-1) - The Blue Jays avenged their only conference loss last week with a one point victory over Missouri St.  If they can defeat Wichita St. in the rematch there will be no doubt who the best team in the conference is.  Winning the conference title will also be a big help to Doug McDermott's All American chances.
2. Wichita St. 17-3 (8-1) - The Shockers' three losses this season have come to Alabama, Temple, and Creighton.  While it's a bit worrisome they haven't defeated any of the ranked teams they've played, they're close to a lock for an NCAA berth.  The rematch with Creighton takes place in Omaha on Feb 11th.
3. Missouri St. 12-9 (5-4) - To me this team has been a bit disappointing.  Losing to Creighton and Wichita St. is fine but the two home losses to Evansville and Illinois St. sting.  They'll have to win the conference tournament to earn the MVC a third NCAA bid.
4. Drake 12-8 (5-4) - They're 0-4 against Creighton, Missouri St., and UNI and haven't even played Wichita St. yet.  Basically they're beating up on the bottom of the conference which is nice but getting a couple of wins against the top teams would go a long way in building their NIT resume.
5. Evansville 10-9 (5-4) - Currently riding a three game winning streak, junior Colt Ryan has emerged as one of the conference's top players highlighted by his 39 points against Bradley.
6. Northern Iowa 14-7 (4-5) - After playing great in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Panthers have been mediocre during the regular season. They have a nice one point win over Missouri St. but also lost to Bradley.  They have a good enough non-con profile that they could have been a bubble team but it's too late for that now unless they go undefeated the rest of the way.
7. Illinois St. 12-8 (4-5) - After starting off 3-1 in conference play, the Redbirds have gone 1-4 with their only win coming against Indiana St.  While ISU is + 14 in turnovers in their last four losses, they're only forcing 11 a game.  That's not enough when you're allowing opponents to make 46% of their two point shots.
8. Southern Illinois 6-14 (3-6) - SIU opponents shoot free throws on 52% of their field goal attempts. That is an atrocious number that I'm willing to bet ranks in the bottom ten in the nation.  They also shoot 28% from three while allowing opponents to shoot 36%.  In case you're not getting the hint, this team is bad - worse than their record suggests.
9. Indiana St. 11-7 (2-7) - What happened to this team? Their poor conference record is a result of the odd combination of not defending the three and not getting offensive rebounds.  I expected much more from this squad.
10. Bradley 6-15 (1-8) - Their one win is perhaps the biggest surprise of the conference season thus far (defeated NIU 78-67).  They could squeak out a couple of more before the season ends but this team is pretty much entrenched in last place.

Looking Back: Last Chance for Quality Wins

Happy Holidays everyone!  This week marked the last opportunity for many teams to make a statement before the conference slate begins this week.  Here are several games from last week that caught my eye:

Resume Building Wins

• Creighton 87 - Northwestern 79: Creighton is now 3-0 against the best conference in the country, the Big Ten.
• Oklahoma St. 69 - Alabama 52: This is a big victory by a team who's expected to finish in the middle of the Big 12.  Alabama is a strong contender for the SEC West crown but this loss should only provide further evidence about how much better the Big 12 is than the SEC.
• Indiana St. 61 - Vanderbilt 55: Another big win for the MVC over a sure thing NCAA Tournament team.
• Davidson 80 - Kansas 74: This is the biggest win for any team this season.  Davidson is now a legit mid-major at-large team.  
• UNLV 85 - Cal 68: The Runnin Rebels have effectively moved on after being humbled at Wisconsin.  This is a team that could win a couple of games in March.

Missed Opportunities

• Illinois 74 - Missouri 78: The Illini hung tough for the entire contest but never could get over the hump. If they struggle in BIG play then this loss will hurt.
• Missouri St. 68 - West Virginia 70 (OT): This game is one that not only hurts Missouri St. but also affects the entire MVC.  Getting a win versus a quality Big East foe on a neutral court would've added to the credibility of the entire conference.
• Dayton 64 - Seton Hall 69: Dayton will have a hard time finishing in the top three of the A10 this season so non-conference wins are a great opportunity to prove they're still an NCAA team. Losing at home to a bottom half Big East team does not help.
• Northwestern 79 - Creighton 87: I know I've already mentioned this game but for a team who has NEVER (seriously, this is the only BCS school to have never made the NCAA Tournament) qualified for the Big Dance marquee wins are important. Finishing in the middle of the Big Ten won't be enough.

Damaging Losses

• Xavier 82 - Hawai'i 84 (OT):  Their two losses to Oral Roberts and Long Beach St. shouldn't come as a surprise after the fallout from their fight with Cincinnati.  The loss to Hawaii, however, hurts. Xavier is an NCAA Tournament team, no doubt, but this one will hurt their seeding.
• Purdue 65 - Butler 67: Losing a game you've led for 39 minutes to a team who is not expected to qualify for the NCAA Tournament hurts.
• Washington 72 - South Dakota St. 93: This loss could really affect the RPI for the entire Pac 12.  Washington is arguably one of the top three teams so a bad loss to an average DI team in a non-power conference could have ugly ramifications.

Mid-Major Rankings: December 2011

It’s time for another Mid-major Power Ranking!  I’ve done a lot of thinking and have decided to overhaul the teams eligible.  There is no clear-cut definition of a mid-major in college basketball.  Obviously the Big Six are excluded (Big East, Big Ten, Big12, SEC, ACC, Pac12) but what about leagues such as the Mountain West which routinely sends multiple schools to the NCAA Tournament and has teams ranked all year long?  

I’ve decided that mid-majors should be classified as:

• Leagues that do not have Division I football and
• Leagues that hope - not expect - to have a school selected as an at-large bid.

For instance, even though the Missouri Valley Conference is at this juncture are the best mid-major conference, they do not have DI football and will therefore be included.  The Atlantic 10 does not have Division I football (the schools that do join another conference such as Temple with the MAC) but routinely expect multiple schools to participate in the NCAA Tournament and are thereby excluded.  Thus, the precedent is set and these are my rankings:

Mid-Major Watch: Ranking Potential At-Large Teams

I don't know how much basketball everyone is watching and it's way too early to start talking about bubble teams for March Madness, but the talking heads over at ESPN keep saying it's going to be a "chalk year" in the NCAA Tournament.  What they mean is they expect the top seeded teams to move along without many upsets occurring along the way.  After watching several games the last few weeks, I've come up with the opinion that the major conferences are not that deep this season.  It may be a chalk year but I believe we can expect several mid major conferences to have multiple schools qualify for the Big Dance and this is something I like.
Below I've ranked a baker's dozen schools who could earn an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton may rely upon Doug McDermott too much.
Then again, he's so good why not use him as much as possible?

1. UNLV - When you beat the best team in the country your NCAA Tournament profile looks good.  They'll look for an encore in a bout with Wichita St. this weekend.
2. Gonzaga - Play Illinois this weekend in a game that will say a lot about where the Zags are right now.  I believe they're the best team in the West Coast Conference and new addition BYU will only add to the conference resume.  Other non-conference games include Michigan St., Arizona, Butler, and Xavier.

Early Season Observations: 3 Good & 3 Bad

There's been a lot of games early in the basketball landscape making it hard to digest all that's happened.  It's still way too early to believe everything you see but there have been some telling signs also.  Here are some of the things that have stood out to me thus far.

         The Good

1.             The Big Ten: In my preseason Power Rankings I listed the Big Ten as the third best conference.  If I were to do an update now I’d say they are number two.  Ohio State still seems like the only team who will contend for a national title but rest of the conference have played better than expected.  The conference has a combined record of 36-5 with the worst loss being to Creighton on a neutral floor (though Penn St. was never in their game vs. Kentucky).
   2.       Kentucky Wildcats: Every year Calipari reloads with a top-10 recruiting class. And every year Calipari’s teams are among the youngest due to players leaving early for the NBA.  Well, this Kentucky team looks good and I expect them to be in the top 5 all year.
   3.       Creighton Blue Jays: Creighton was hyped up as being one of the top mid-major teams this preseason.  ESPN pumped them up so much I was sure they were doomed. Well, so far so good for these Blue Jays.  A nice win over UAB gave me hope they would play Iowa well in Des Moines in what Vegas had pinned as a close game (Creighton -1.5).  The game was never close as Creighton led by 16 at half time and won by 23.  This bodes well for the MVC.
   
   
   
   
   The Bad
   
   
   1.       Colonial Athletic Association: A year after sending George Mason, VCU, and Old Dominion to the NCAA Tournament last year, Drexel was voted as the preseason favorite in the coaches’ poll.  They’re now 1-2 with a loss to Norfolk St. (finished 269 in the RPI last year) and a loss to Virginia in which they only scored 35 points.   Old Dominion is 3-2 but was crushed by Northern Iowa and George Mason is in another rebuilding year.  There won’t be multiple bids in the conference this year.
   2.       Utah Utes: Last year the Mountain West was a pretty formidable conference and, although not good, Utah held their own.  Now in the Pac-12 it looks like it could be a long year.  In their opening game, Utah squeaked by San Diego Christian for a three point win.  They followed that up by getting crushed at Boise St (not a good basketball school) while Saturday they lost at home to Montana State.  Things don’t look to get any better this week when they take on a Harvard squad who returns their entire roster from last year.
   3.       UCLA Bruins: If UCLA were to play Utah right now I’m not sure who would win. UCLA is 0-2 with both losses coming at home, neither of which was to a power conference team (Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee St.). Also, neither was close.  The Bruins now head off to Hawaii where they’ll play Div II Chaminade in the first round of the Maui Invitational.