2014 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 Warning: this is a lengthy post.

Last year I wrote a post detailing the Hall of Fame credentials of each candidate on the ballot using a system I devised called Hall of Fame Score (HOFSc).  I thought it worked well but I wasn't finished tweaking.  I messed around with the formula some more during the summer until I came up with something I think works better.  The main difference is now performance relative to the league has more weight than just WAR.

Craig Biggio was the odds on favorite to be elected last season but he only garnered 68% of the votes (75% is necessary) and therefore was not elected.  Now the ballot is gaining several other players who many feel are deserving of enshrinement including Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, and Curt Schilling.  These players plus the carryovers from last season make for one heck of a dilemma for voters.  If multiple players are not elected this time around it's conceivable in the near future there will be up to twenty players who are legitimate candidates.  Until the voters come to a consensus on how to treat the players who dabbled in PEDs (or those who are speculated to have done so) or until the Baseball Writers Association allows more than ten players to be selected on a ballot, we're going to have quite a mess on our hands.

Here's what the ballot looks like this time with their respective HOFSc:

Catchers - Avg/Median HOFSc = 74.00/75.15
Paul LoDuca (24.6): LoDuca had one really nice season with the Dodgers in 2001 where he batted .320/.374/.543.  He never matched those lofty numbers again but managed to stick around for another decade as a decent hitting catcher.

Mike Piazza (92.40): It's a bit of a shame Piazza didn't get in last season because now the ballot is filled with other great candidates. I think he'll get in next year but not this year.  My scoring system puts him fourth among catchers so there's no excuse for shutting him out for too long.

All Time All Stars - Red Sox Pitchers

Imagine an All Time All Stars World Series of Boston vs. New York.  The Yankees would trot Ruth, Gehrig, and Mantle out there everyday.  That's some pretty scary stuff and most teams would probably acknowledge that they have little chance in competing with the greatest offensive force ever seen. Well, the Red Sox are one team that would not be intimidated.  Ted Williams didn't take crap from anybody and at first glance the pitching staff seems quite strong.  I can just picture Roger Clemens and Pedro giving the boys in pinstripes the middle finger as they strut to the mound. Those guys were tough sons of guns who didn't shy away in the heat of the moment. Let's take a look at who was on this team when SI published the game in 1973.

Is this the greatest pitcher of all time?

• Ray Culp SP
• Bill Dinneen SP
• Joe Dobson SP
• Ellis Kinder RP
• Dutch Leonard SP
• Carl Mays SP
• Mel Parnell SP
• Joe Wood SP
• Cy Young SP

This was just an okay staff. Cy Young might be the greatest pitcher of all time while Smoky Joe Wood and Dutch Leonard had a few excellent seasons but it pretty much ends there.  Teams are going to have to do better if they want to hang with the Yankees.  Luckily, with Roger Clemens and Pedro coming on board it's about to get scary good in the rotation.

Original Locks: Cy Young, Smoky Joe Wood, Ellis Kinder, Dutch Leonard

Cy Young is a no brainer.  Joe Wood had a great run from 1911-1915 that make him a cinch as well. Leonard was Wood's teammate and may have been even better.  Kinder is the best reliever in team history in my opinion.  In 1949 he led the league in complete game shutouts and two years later led the league in saves while accumulating 5.1 WAR.  

New guys that are locks: Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant, Tim Wakefield,

With the retention of Cy Young, this rotation is now possibly the best in the game. Roger Clemens can also be included in the conversation as greatest pitcher ever and he has the hardware to prove it by putting 7 Cy Young Awards on his mantle.  Pedro Martinez's 1999 and 2000 seasons might be the greatest back to back years ever.  He averaged 20-5 with a 1.90 ERA in the steroid era.  His ERA+ for those two combined seasons is 265!  That's two hundred and sixty five percent better than the league average.  Luis Tiant won 20 games three times and led the league in ERA once.  And Tim Wakefield is the franchise leader in innings pitched and is third in wins.  Gotta have the knuckler in there.

If the Red Sox were to set a rotation I think it'd go Young, Clemens, Martinez, Tiant.  Wow.

Just like with the Yankees we've got eight locks out of ten spots. Below are who I believe are the best candidates for the final two spots.

Guys on the bubble:

• Josh Beckett - The ace on the Sox second championship team, Beckett has had moments of brilliance cuopled with injuries. In 2007 he was fantastic and led the league in wins with 20.
• Joe Dobson - Dobson pitched 1500+ innings in Beantown and won 106 games.  Both rank in the 10 ten in team history.
• Derek Lowe - Lowe bounced from starting and relieving, finding success in each role. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2002 and his ERA+ was 127 as a member of the Red Sox.
• Carl Mays - Mays played for four different franchises and none of them really scream at me as the obvious choice.  He ranks highly in several categories including having the sixth best career ERA among Red Sox pitchers so I'll put him here. 
• Mel Parnell - Won 20+ games twice including 25 in 1949.  Parnell only pitched ten years but managed to accumulate the 8th most WAR in team history.
• Jonathan Papelbon - Love him or hate him the man was pretty dominant as a closer for the BoSox.  Made four all star teams and saved 322 games in Boston.
• Bob Stanley - Stanley was a multi-inning reliever who pitched really well for nine straight seasons until 1986.  He ranks eighth in wins, second in saves, and first in games pitched in team history.
• Babe Ruth - Ruth's not going to make this team because he's already a Yankee but he would be a candidate otherwise.  

Vote for the two pitchers you feel should make the team in the poll located on the upper right-hand side of the homepage.

Updated poll results: Jonathan Papelbon was the top vote getter with Mel Parnell second. These two will be added to Boston's staff.

2013 MLB HOF Ballot (Pitchers)

 








Last week I took a look at the hitters so now I'll examine the case for the pitchers on the ballot. While I'll agree my system isn't perfect for starting pitchers, I do believe it's close. I'll work on giving it some tweaks during the year in hopes I can perfect it.

Starting Pitchers - Avg HOFSc = 57.76
Roger Clemens (105.65): You can make an argument that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher of all time.  He won seven Cy Young Awards (most), led the league in ERA seven times, strikeouts five times, shutouts six times, and even won an MVP award. His HOFSc of 105.65 just edges out Cy Young (105.35) for the highest ever.  He ranks second all time in career WAR and third for peak. I think we can all agree Roger Clemens was a great pitcher and would be a lock if not for his performance enhancers.  I think he'll get in eventually but I'm not sure how long he'll have to wait.

Jack Morris (44.25): Here we go again. Jack Morris was a good pitcher but every time I evaluate him he falls short of Hall of Fame status.  He won twenty games twice and threw an incredible game in the 1991 World Series.  He also led the league in wild pitches six times.

Aaron Sele (30.70): Sele's an interesting story. When he came to the majors he was seen as the heir apparent to Roger Clemens by Red Sox Nation. When he pitched he was brilliant but injuries kept him off the field quite a bit. I guess management became frustrated by this and traded him to Texas where he promptly won 19 games.  The next two years were both excellent but then his career as an effective major league starting pitcher was pretty much over although he held on to a job for seven more seasons.

David Wells (47.05): Wells was a bit of a journeyman pitcher in the mid 90s until he stumbled upon the Yankees. Once there his career really took off. He set a new career high in wins with 16 in 1997 and threw a perfect game. In 1998 he led the American League in winning percentage by going 18-4. Over the next six seasons he won 76 games and was a legitimate #1 starter. Unfortunately it took him too long to become a productive pitcher though he did manage to hang around until he was 44. A fun character but not quite a hall of famer.

Woody Williams (17.80): Woody Williams made his major league debut in 1993 but it took him until he was in his mid 30s to become an above average pitcher.  By then he was nearly done. He pitched one World Series game and made one all-star team.

Relief Pitchers - Avg HOFSc = 24.18
Roberto Hernandez (13.75): Roberto Hernandez usurped Bobby Thigpen as the White Sox closer in 1992 and held on to the job until the White Flag Trade in 1997.  Despite closing games thru 2002, his days as a shut down reliever ended in 1999 or 2000.

Jose Mesa (13.00): Mesa made his major league debut in 1987 as a starting pitcher and in six games had an ERA over 6.00.  The Orioles then banished him to the minors until 1990 when he came up and made seven starts.  He spent three more seasons as a starter including one in Cleveland before the Indians decided enough was enough and converted him to a closer. What a good decision. In 1995 and 1997 he helped solidify the bullpen of two World Series teams.  After posting a 6.52 ERA with the Phillies in 2003, his career seemed to be over.  Somehow he got another chance in 2004 and was very good again.  He was a good reliever for a long time.

Lee Smith (23.6): While I was growing up, Lee Smith was considered a great closer because everyone assumed he would set the career saves record. He did but I was never convinced he was a great closer (especially when he gave up that home run to Fred McGriff in the all-star game).  Turns out he'd fit right in with the relievers in the Hall of Fame. Personally, I think only two relievers in the hall deserve to be there but that's beside the point. If Smith gets in it won't be a big deal. I'm just not sure he will.

Mike Stanton (11.80): Mike Stanton is second all time in games pitched. The problem with his candidacy is that in 1178 games pitched he threw 1114 innings. Essentially a LOOGY for the majority of his career, Stanton was able to pitch for 19 seasons. I'm not saying LOOGY's are dumb, in fact he's probably the best ever. I just don't see how one can be a legitimate hall of fame candidate.  I'm sure he's a nice guy though.

My Hypothetical Ballot
Each year a voter can vote for up to ten (10) players on their ballot.  Most years I feel only three or four are deserving but there's starting to be some serious back log due to the writers newfound morality.  If I had a vote I'd vote for ten players this time around. Here's my ballot:

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Jeff Bagwell
• Mike Piazza
• Craig Biggio
• Mark McGwire
• Larry Walker
• Tim Raines
• Alan Trammell
• Edgar Martinez

Who will be the next 300 game winner?

Recently I was listening to a Phillies game on the radio and I heard the announcers talking about how Roy Halladay stands a good shot at winning 300 games and if he does how he'll possibly be the last to do so for a long time. Later Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com blogged about the statement too.  They were right in acknowledging that he's had great durability and that durability will need to continue as he ages if he's to have any chance.  Pitching for the Phillies right now doesn't hurt either since they've been one of baseball's most consistently good teams in the past half decade.

As much as I'm impressed by him I don't believe Roy Halladay has the best chance of winning 300 games of active pitchers. I do believe the next 300 game winner is active, however.  I've often mentioned to friends that I thought CC Sabathia had a real shot of winning 300 after he signed with the Yankees three years ago and this little exercise will give me the opportunity to compare him side by side with Halladay.

First off, here's a little breakdown of every pitcher who's had a shot of winning 300 games since 1980:

		Total Wins	Wins before turning 30	Wins after 30	Age at 300th Win	Age of Final Win	Date of 300th Win
Randy Johnson		303	64	239	45	46	6/4/09
Tom Glavine		305	124	181	41	42	8/5/07
Greg Maddux		355	151	204	38	42	8/7/04
Roger Clemens		354	146	208	40	44	6/13/03
Nolan Ryan		324	122	202	43	46	7/31/90
Tom Seaver		311	146	165	40	41	8/4/85
Don Sutton		324	139	185	41	43	6/18/86
Phil Niekro		318	31	287	46	48	10/6/85
Steve Carlton		329	133	196	38	43	9/23/83
Gaylord Perry		314	58	256	43	44	5/6/82
Tommy John		297	98	199	N/A	46	N/A
Bert Blyleven		287	156	131	N/A	41	N/A
Ferguson Jenkins		284	135	149	N/A	40	N/A

The first thing that stands out is that every 300 game winner has pitched into their 40's and with the exceptions of Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux they've needed to in order to get the milestone.  Another important thing to note is how important it is to be successful in your twenties.  Unless a pitcher can continue pitching until he's 45 he'll need to earn about 120 wins in his twenties to have a realistic shot.  One thing that's not noted in the chart but should be pointed out is that durability is extremely important.  Missing a season can easily set you back enough so that 300 wins is just enough out of reach that a team won't be willing to sign an aging hurler with fading skills.  With that being said here are the best candidates among active pitchers for reaching 300 wins:

		Age	Wins	Wins/Yr	Wins before 30	Wins Needed	Wins/Yr Until 41*
Jamie Moyer		49	269	14	34	31	N/A
Roy Halladay		35	192	17	99	108	18.0
Tim Hudson		36	183	16	101	117	23.4
CC Sabathia		31	181	17	172	119	11.9
Mark Buehrle		33	164	14	122	136	17.0
Roy Oswalt		34	159	16	111	141	20.1
J. Verlander		29	111	18	111	189	15.8
Dan Haren		31	108	14	101	192	19.2
F. Hernandez		26	88	14	88	212	14.1
Jered Weaver		29	87	16	87	213	17.8
Zack Greinke		28	80	12	80	220	16.9
Cole Hamels		28	79	14	79	221	17.0
Tim Lincecum		28	71	15	71	229	17.6
C. Kershaw		24	50	14	50	250	14.7

*Note: I'm using the age of 41 because the average age of players earning their 300th win in the first table is 41.5

Injury and crappy bullpens have cost Tim Hudson more wins than I care to count.

• How amazing is Jamie Moyer?  He only earned 34 wins prior to his 30th birthday and now has 269 on his resume.  Sure he's 49 but what a remarkable career.  This may be his final season as he's coming off Tommy John surgery and is not as effective as he was pre-surgery (when he was 47).  
• Roy Halladay is second on the list with 192 career victories.  If he's to get 300 wins he'll need to average 18 wins a year over the next six seasons.  That's tough but not impossible, especially with the way he's been pitching the last few seasons.
• Tim Hudson is hurt here thanks to losing half of 2008 and all but seven starts worth of 2009 to injury.  I don't have data available but I willing to bet he led the majors in wins blown by bullpen from 2000-2010.  
• Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt have roughly the same shot in my opinion. Buehrle's been plagued by slipping effectiveness while Oswalt has trouble staying healthy.  The odds are stacked against them.
• Justin Verlander is a tricky one to put odds on.  He is absolutely the best pitcher in the American League right now and is extremely durable (look at those innings pitched numbers over the past five seasons: 201, 201, 240, 224, 250).  I'd like his odds better if I believed he'll still be pitching when he's 40.
• Haren is a bit of a late bloomer. He's just now entering his prime and his odds can really improve with a couple more good seasons.
• Weaver, Lincecum, Greinke, and Hamels are all in the same boat. They're young and have a long way to go.  Six years ago Barry Zito would have been in their age group but he had 102 wins so be careful when making projections.
• Clayton Kershaw is a really interesting case.  At just 24 years old he's already 16% of the way there.  Last year's Cy Young Award winner is just too far away to project with any certainty.  An injury could derail him but he's so good that if he doesn't lose too much effectiveness it would only be a minor setback.  He's a fun one to watch.

After factoring in age and career wins presented in the table above, it's clear to me CC Sabathia has an excellent chance at reaching 300 wins.  Roy Halladay is the guy closest with a reasonable chance which is probably why he's the one being talked about most. After CC and Hallday, Felix Hernandez has probably a one in three shot since he's still only 26 and may have 100 career victories by the end of this season.  Everyone else is still too young or too far away to take seriously.  When some of these guys reach 200 wins then we can talk.

Major League Steroids

I'll save the longer, more in-depth analysis for Anderson, but with the announcement last night that 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun has been busted for juicing, I had to write something.

I've heard there are studies out there that "prove" that steroid use does not correlate or cause increased performance. There is also the res ipsa loquitur approach of "the thing speaks for itself" that players getting busted are the ones putting up outstanding performances.

Whatever side you fall on, I need to say this...

• Top 6 single-season Home Run Performances: Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, McGwire, Sosa, Sosa. All either proved, admitted, or super-duper highly suspicious users.
• All-Time Home Run Leader: Barry Bonds. Also in the top 10: McGwire, Sosa, A-Rod...see above.
• Oldest pitcher to win a Cy Young: Roger Clemens...same story. Also #3 all-time in strikeouts.

Even if you don't think PEDs can make you swing harder or throw faster, most people would agree that they speed recovery. That's the type of thing that can keep you on top of your game late into your 30s or even your 40s, thus padding the career/all-time stats.

If you take the "suspect" players off the single-season HR records list, only Babe Ruth (twice) and Willie Mays have hit more than 51 HRs after age 31. That's 3 completely honest performances by guys over 31 out of the top 31 overall. That should make you think that maybe power-hitting after 30 is quite a rare, HOF-worthy feat.