Who will be the next 300 game winner?

Recently I was listening to a Phillies game on the radio and I heard the announcers talking about how Roy Halladay stands a good shot at winning 300 games and if he does how he'll possibly be the last to do so for a long time. Later Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com blogged about the statement too.  They were right in acknowledging that he's had great durability and that durability will need to continue as he ages if he's to have any chance.  Pitching for the Phillies right now doesn't hurt either since they've been one of baseball's most consistently good teams in the past half decade.

As much as I'm impressed by him I don't believe Roy Halladay has the best chance of winning 300 games of active pitchers. I do believe the next 300 game winner is active, however.  I've often mentioned to friends that I thought CC Sabathia had a real shot of winning 300 after he signed with the Yankees three years ago and this little exercise will give me the opportunity to compare him side by side with Halladay.

First off, here's a little breakdown of every pitcher who's had a shot of winning 300 games since 1980:

		Total Wins	Wins before turning 30	Wins after 30	Age at 300th Win	Age of Final Win	Date of 300th Win
Randy Johnson		303	64	239	45	46	6/4/09
Tom Glavine		305	124	181	41	42	8/5/07
Greg Maddux		355	151	204	38	42	8/7/04
Roger Clemens		354	146	208	40	44	6/13/03
Nolan Ryan		324	122	202	43	46	7/31/90
Tom Seaver		311	146	165	40	41	8/4/85
Don Sutton		324	139	185	41	43	6/18/86
Phil Niekro		318	31	287	46	48	10/6/85
Steve Carlton		329	133	196	38	43	9/23/83
Gaylord Perry		314	58	256	43	44	5/6/82
Tommy John		297	98	199	N/A	46	N/A
Bert Blyleven		287	156	131	N/A	41	N/A
Ferguson Jenkins		284	135	149	N/A	40	N/A

The first thing that stands out is that every 300 game winner has pitched into their 40's and with the exceptions of Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux they've needed to in order to get the milestone.  Another important thing to note is how important it is to be successful in your twenties.  Unless a pitcher can continue pitching until he's 45 he'll need to earn about 120 wins in his twenties to have a realistic shot.  One thing that's not noted in the chart but should be pointed out is that durability is extremely important.  Missing a season can easily set you back enough so that 300 wins is just enough out of reach that a team won't be willing to sign an aging hurler with fading skills.  With that being said here are the best candidates among active pitchers for reaching 300 wins:

		Age	Wins	Wins/Yr	Wins before 30	Wins Needed	Wins/Yr Until 41*
Jamie Moyer		49	269	14	34	31	N/A
Roy Halladay		35	192	17	99	108	18.0
Tim Hudson		36	183	16	101	117	23.4
CC Sabathia		31	181	17	172	119	11.9
Mark Buehrle		33	164	14	122	136	17.0
Roy Oswalt		34	159	16	111	141	20.1
J. Verlander		29	111	18	111	189	15.8
Dan Haren		31	108	14	101	192	19.2
F. Hernandez		26	88	14	88	212	14.1
Jered Weaver		29	87	16	87	213	17.8
Zack Greinke		28	80	12	80	220	16.9
Cole Hamels		28	79	14	79	221	17.0
Tim Lincecum		28	71	15	71	229	17.6
C. Kershaw		24	50	14	50	250	14.7

*Note: I'm using the age of 41 because the average age of players earning their 300th win in the first table is 41.5

Injury and crappy bullpens have cost Tim Hudson more wins than I care to count.

• How amazing is Jamie Moyer?  He only earned 34 wins prior to his 30th birthday and now has 269 on his resume.  Sure he's 49 but what a remarkable career.  This may be his final season as he's coming off Tommy John surgery and is not as effective as he was pre-surgery (when he was 47).  
• Roy Halladay is second on the list with 192 career victories.  If he's to get 300 wins he'll need to average 18 wins a year over the next six seasons.  That's tough but not impossible, especially with the way he's been pitching the last few seasons.
• Tim Hudson is hurt here thanks to losing half of 2008 and all but seven starts worth of 2009 to injury.  I don't have data available but I willing to bet he led the majors in wins blown by bullpen from 2000-2010.  
• Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt have roughly the same shot in my opinion. Buehrle's been plagued by slipping effectiveness while Oswalt has trouble staying healthy.  The odds are stacked against them.
• Justin Verlander is a tricky one to put odds on.  He is absolutely the best pitcher in the American League right now and is extremely durable (look at those innings pitched numbers over the past five seasons: 201, 201, 240, 224, 250).  I'd like his odds better if I believed he'll still be pitching when he's 40.
• Haren is a bit of a late bloomer. He's just now entering his prime and his odds can really improve with a couple more good seasons.
• Weaver, Lincecum, Greinke, and Hamels are all in the same boat. They're young and have a long way to go.  Six years ago Barry Zito would have been in their age group but he had 102 wins so be careful when making projections.
• Clayton Kershaw is a really interesting case.  At just 24 years old he's already 16% of the way there.  Last year's Cy Young Award winner is just too far away to project with any certainty.  An injury could derail him but he's so good that if he doesn't lose too much effectiveness it would only be a minor setback.  He's a fun one to watch.

After factoring in age and career wins presented in the table above, it's clear to me CC Sabathia has an excellent chance at reaching 300 wins.  Roy Halladay is the guy closest with a reasonable chance which is probably why he's the one being talked about most. After CC and Hallday, Felix Hernandez has probably a one in three shot since he's still only 26 and may have 100 career victories by the end of this season.  Everyone else is still too young or too far away to take seriously.  When some of these guys reach 200 wins then we can talk.

2012 MLB Preview: AL Central

After emerging as the "mystery team" in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, the Detroit Tigers now have their sights set on more than just repeating as division champs.  The core of their team already included one of the best positional players in Miguel Cabrera and last year's American League MVP Justin Verlander.  With Prince on board the team hopes they'll be contenders for the next several years. The rest of the division will be fighting for seconds as all of them have serious concerns.  Kansas City is a team on the rise but their young rotation isn't ready to lead them.  Chicago says it's rebuilding but is stuck with some albatross contracts that prevent them from going all-in at anything.  Cleveland is probably one pitcher short of being taken seriously making their performance in the first two months critical for their playoff chances. Minnesota has a little bit of everything from injury concerns to aging players that the team cannot or will not move.  If you like high scoring games with little regard for the team's overall record then this is the division for you.

Chicago White Sox

2011 Record: 79-83

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $98 million
Highest Paid Player: Jake Peavy - $17 million
Best Player: Paul Konerko just keeps on ticking.  He's second all time in franchise history in HR, RBI,  and will be second in total bases by May.
Best Pitcher: John Danks had a bit of a down year in 2011 but some of that may be attributed to injury, Ozzie Guillen, and bad luck.  His peripherals remained strong and he's an excellent bounce back candidate in 2012.
Say Hello To: Simon Castro RP, Delwyn Young UT, Dan Johnson 1B, Kosuke Fukudome OF
Wave Goodbye: Mark Buehrle SP (Mia), Juan Pierre OF (Phi), Omar Vizquel INF (Tor), Sergio Santos CL (Tor), Tony Pena RP (Bos), Jason Frasor RP (Tor), Carlos Quentin OF (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is Adam Dunn done?  Dunn seemed like the perfect fit for the Cell since it's a great home run park, he's a home run hitter, and he can DH. Instead he had one of the worst seasons of all time and despite walking 75 times he managed only 11 home runs and a putrid .159 batting average.  He's looked good in spring training making me optimistic there's still some left but it's clear the Sox aren't getting what they paid for.

2. Who's the next guy to go?  Sox management traded a boatload of players and even manager Ozzie Guillen in the offseason.  Expecting them to continue to dismantle in an effort to rebuild the worst minor league system in baseball would be wise.  John Danks has been rumored to be available but the price remains too high as of now.  Danks, Floyd, and even Peavy if he's pitching well could be moved this summer.

3. How bad is the farm system?  It's really bad.  Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 100 prospects in the minor leagues and the Sox had zero on the list.  On the Up and In podcast, Kevin Goldstein says it's the worst he's ever seen and when he asked other scouts to name a top prospect none came to mind. It's bad but at least it can't get worse. 

Expectations: Realistically this team could finish anywhere from second to fifth.  If Dunn and Rios rebound then this offense can be pretty good.  The bullpen lacks depth and so does the rotation.  While Northsiders will be crying about how bad the Cubs are, at least Sox fans have the potential to be entertained by exciting - albeit not necessarily good - baseball.

Beckham is a great defensive player but
his offense is still lacking.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. De Aza CF

2. Rios RF

3. Ramirez SS

4. Konerko 1B
5. Dunn DH

6. Fukudome LF

7. Pierzynski C

8. Morel 3B
9. Beckham 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Danks
2. Peavy
3. Floyd
4. Sale
5. Humber

CL: Thornton

2010 Detroit Tigers team preview

2009 Record: 87-77   .528

Run Differential: +53

Last year I predicted Detroit to win the AL Central Division and advance to the playoffs.  I was right--sort of. Losing in the 163rd game cost them the division crown and a chance to scare teams with their formidable top of the rotation. The fact that the Tigers made it that close surprised many.  How could a team finish ten games over .500 despite the nagging injuries and awful back of the rotation?  Great defense was the main root.  The Tigers defense up the middle was sensational and the top of their rotation really was that good.  Justin Verlander established himself as the best pitcher in the American League while Edwin Jackson finally capitalized on his full potential.  Curtis Granderson continued to be a fine player defensively and set a career high in home runs with 30.  Unfortunately, not making the playoffs cost this team a lot of revenue.  Buried behind huge contracts to Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Magglio Ordonez motivated the team make separate trades involving their most popular player and a starting pitcher bubbling with potential.

In return the Tigers get younger, which is key for a team this reliant upon aging players but they likely cost themselves a chance at an American League Central division crown.