My guess at the current bracket

In the last post I did a rundown of all the major conferences (plus Ivy) and listed where the teams hoping for an NCAA bid stand. Now it's time to put some sense into that post and attempt to create a bracket.

1's
1. Ohio St. (25-2, 12-2) - #3 in the RPI and their only two losses are on the road to undefeated home teams
2. Duke (25-2, 12-1) - Most top 100 wins in the country
3. Pittsburgh (24-3, 12-2) - 6-2 against the top 25 in the RPI
4. Texas (23-4, 11-1) - Get the tiebreaker over Kansas due to leading the Big 12
2's
1. Kansas (25-2, 10-2) - If they win the Big 12 Tournament without a stumble inbetween, they'll pass Texas
2. San Diego St. (27-1, 12-1) - Need to beat BYU this week to have thoughts of moving up
3. BYU (25-2, 11-1) - Not sure they can get a #1 seed with their remaining schedule
4. Notre Dame (21-5, 10-4) - 8-4 vs. top 50 teams
3's
1. Purdue (22-5, 11-3) - Mediocre road record (7-5) prevents them from grabbing the last 2 seed
2. Florida (21-5, 10-2) - Don't think they can get a 2 but seem nearly locked in here
3. Wisconsin (20-6, 10-4) - No shame for being 3rd in Big10. Conference tourney is key
4. Georgetown (21-6, 10-5) - This seed goes to whoever finishes 2nd in the Big East
4's
1. North Carolina (20-6, 10-2) - Still play FSU & Duke. Wins there move them up to perhaps the second 3 seed
2. Arizona (23-4, 12-2) - Lead the Pac10 but just 2-3 against top RPI top 50
3. UConn (20-6, 8-6) - Despite losing to Louisville, they're still hanging on here. 7-6 vs top 50
4. Villanova (21-7, 9-6) Loss to Syracuse may move them off this line before the week is over

Remember, this is how I think the committee would seed these teams.  Tomorrow I'll work on the 5-8's which is where things start to get tricky.

So Who's IN and Who's OUT?

Before I start to assemble my bracket I like to do a quick run-down of all the conferences and see who's a lock and who's on the bubble.  After this is done I can start to rank the teams and give them seeds.  This weekend's games were pretty important so I feel confident I have most of the teams grouped appropriately.

Atlantic 10
Locks: Xavier, Temple
Should be In:
Firmly on Bubble: Duquesne, Richmond
Duquesne and Richmond play each other in their final conference game. There are likely significant ramifications tied to the outcome. Richmond's win over Purdue provides them a huge boost.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Locks: Duke, North Carolina
Should be In: Florida St.
Firmly on Bubble: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Boston College
Currently only Virginia Tech appears to be on the inside track of the bubble teams. Maryland and BC need to win out and do some damage in the ACC Tournament.

Big 12
Locks: Texas, Kansas
Should be In: Texas A&M, Missouri
Firmly on Bubble: Kansas St., Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma St.
Nebraska gave Texas their first conference loss and has placed themselves firmly into the bubble discussion. Of the three bubble teams, K St. has the hardest row to plow (@Neb, Mizzu, @Texas, ISU). A stumble could allow Nebraska and Baylor to push them out.

Bracket Buster Weekend

This weekend is quite possibly the most important weekend for many mid-major programs as it is the last chance for several programs to pick up a quality win. Unfortunately it can also break schools that have nothing much to gain and everything to lose. That being said, it's an exciting time that should feature lots of close games and helps set the tone for the final month of the season before March Madness begins. Below I've offered a quick synopsis of the five match-ups I'm really excited about.

1. Utah St. (24-3) @ St. Mary's (22-5)
Two of the three best mid-major programs go head to head here. Utah St. has no quality wins although they lost at BYU in a close one and Georgetown won on a very controversial call in December. St. Mary's is this year's Gonzaga but recently lost to San Diego who is one of the worst teams in Division I.  I think this game could turn into a classic.
Who gains more with win: Utah St. - A win here secures an at-large bid even if they don't win their conference tournament.
Who loses most with loss: Utah St.- They really needed to run the table in conference and although they'll probably finish 15-1, many on the committee will point at no quality wins and knock them down a few pegs.
Who wins: I really think St. Mary's gets it done at home. I'm pulling for the Aggies though.

2. VCU (20-8) @ Wichita St. (22-5)
VCU is currently second in the CAA (behind George Mason) but is only 1-3 when facing quality non-conference opponents. They even have a bad loss to Georgia State.  Wichita St. has a decent enough resume but has lost 3 home games in conference--not a sign of a strong mid-major. They're currently 0-2 against quality non-conference opponents.
Who gains more with win: VCU - That bad loss to Georgia St. may haunt them to the end
Who loses most with loss: Wichita St. may fall out of favor for bubble consideration if they lose this one
Who wins: Wichita St. is a great rebounding team and that will be the difference in this one.

3. Cleveland St. (23-5) @ Old Dominion (21-6)
Cleveland St. is in a dog fight for the automatic bid in the Horizon league. Old Dominion is starting to really roll. It's funny how a bad loss affects some teams and not others, right? ODU lost to Delaware early on but also has quality wins over Clemson and Xavier. An at-large bid seems probable.
Who gains more with win: Cleveland St. - A big road win is just what this team needs
Who loses most with loss: Cleveland St. - Their best non-conference win is Iona so, yeah, this is important.
Who wins: As what often happens in tournament games, take the team with the best player. Cleveland St. in a nail biter.

4. George Mason (22-5) @ Northern Iowa (19-9)
How UNI landed such a quality opponent at home baffles me.  George Mason is playing some of the best ball in the country with twelve straight wins.  They even spanked Duquesne in their one quality non-conference game.  UNI on the other hand is really struggling and isn't nearly the same team they were last year.
Who gains more with win: UNI - Brings some credibility to the MVC
Who loses most with loss: UNI - The committee puts a fair amount of emphasis on how team's close the season and a loss here would drop UNI to 1-4 in their last 5.
Who wins:  George Mason by double digits.

5. Missouri St. (21-6) @ Valparaiso (19-8)
Two teams that weren't expected to be serious conference title contenders meet in Indiana.  This will likely be the premiere game on ESPN since Dickie V announced he'll be calling the game, baby!
Who gains more with win: Valparaiso. - A win here locks up an at-large bid.
Who loses most with loss: Missouri St. - The win over Wichita St. is nice but they've got nothing else on their profile.
Who wins: Valpo.

January 23: Power 16

I've been slacking lately and haven't posted a Power 16 yet. Remember, this is not who I necessarily feel the top sixteen teams are but instead these are the sixteen teams that currently hold an inside track to receiving a protected seed (1-4) on Selection Sunday.

1's	Record	vs. RPI top 25
Ohio St.	20-0 (7-0)	2-0
Duke	18-1 (5-1)	1-0
Pittsburgh	19-1 (7-0)	4-1
Kansas	18-1 (3-1)	1-1

Ohio St. continues to roll along, putting up the most impressive undefeated record thus far. Their big road win in Champaign over the weekend cements their spot as the #1 overall seed.  Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and shouldn't expect many difficult matchups along the way. They've edged their way back to #2 overall.  Pitt is possibly the best team in the Big East and is a serious National Title contender.  Kansas home loss to Texas drops them down two spots but they're still clinging to a number one seed.

Keltner List: Barry Larkin

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? Yes. Barry Larkin had a career year in 1996 where he hit .298/.410/.567 with 33 home runs, 36 stolen bases, and won the N.L. Gold Glove at shortstop.
2. Was he the best player on his team? Most definitely.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? He had a couple of years where he was considered one of the best at his position. He was the star shortstop in the National League as Ozzie Smith was in full decline mode when Larkin became the starter in Cincinnati.  He became overshadowed in the second half of his career by the young shortstop trilogy of Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Derek Jeter.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Barry Larkin only played in two post-seasons as the Reds were mostly mediocre during his tenure there. In 1990 they won the World Series where Larkin hit .353. In 1995 he was the only guy who showed up against Atlanta in the NLCS. In four career postseason series he hit .338/.397/.465 with no home runs and eight stolen bases in 17 games.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? Yes, but as he grew older his health became even more precarious.  When he played he was very good although those stints on the disabled list became longer and more frequent. Injuries made it easy for him to call it a career.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? No, that distinction falls to Jeff Bagwell or Mark McGwire. Tim Raines was also a better player.
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? Larkin's counting stats are probably a bit short due to the amount of time he missed in his career due to injury. In fact, in 15 seasons he only managed to play 140 or more games in only seven of them. That being said his .295/.371/.444 slash line is very impressive for a shortstop.
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? See above.  As an infielder his stats do exceed those set by many other Hall of Famers.
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? Not really. Defensive metrics probably don't to him any justice though since he was an elite defender in his early years.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? Tough one. I think yes. Alan Trammell is a close second.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? Larkin had several good years in the early to mid nineties but only one was really worthy of the MVP Award--and he didn't win it! Larkin won the MVP in 1995 when the award probably should have gone to Mike Piazza. But he then followed it up by setting career highs in nearly every offensive statistic in 1996. Other than 1995 that he only finished in the top ten of MVP voting one other time and that was a seventh place finish in 1990.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? Larkin played in 12 All-Star games as he was the premier shortstop of his era.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? In his prime, yes, and they did win it all in 1990.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Not to my knowledge.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? As far as I can recall, Barry Larkin was considered one of the ultimate good guys and was a leader on his team. Sportswriters liked him and the fans of Cincinnati loved him.

Jeff Bagwell Keltner List

I'm going to do a series of Keltner list evaluations for players on the Hall of Fame ballot that were not enshrined. I've done this for Tim Raines and Jim Rice in the past.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? Jeff Bagwell won the 1994 NL MVP and was considered one of the game's top players for the remainder of the decade. There was a strong debate on who was the greater first baseman, him or Frank Thomas. Each was often compared to Jimmie Foxx as possibly the second greatest first baseman of all time.
2. Was he the best player on his team? Bagwell was either the first or second best player on his team every year 1993 to 2001.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? Bagwell played at a time where most of the high profile names were also first basemen. Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud, Mark Grace, Will Clark, Jim Thome, and Fred McGriff are contemporaries who will all receive HOF consideration. It's safe to say that at worst Bagwell ranks third in this group behind the Big Hurt and Big Mac.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Houston qualified for the playoffs six times with Bagwell as their first baseman.  They finished second in the division five other times. His performance in the playoffs, however, was the cause of much criticism. He's a career .226/.364/.321 hitter in nine playoff series with only two home runs. Furthermore he was just 1-8 in his only World Series appearance.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? Yes. As he slipped into his mid-thirties the Astros moved from the Astrodome (an extreme pitcher's park) to Enron Field (an extreme hitter's park) hiding his declining performance. His career came to a close as a result of constant, nagging injuries as opposed to declining performance.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? Quite possibly.
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? Bagwell's 449 home runs fall within Hall of Fame standards and his .149 career OPS+ (.448 OBP, .540 SLG) would rank well ahead of other power-hitting first basemen Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda, and Willie McCovey.  Needless to say these numbers also dwarf those of recent inductees Jim Rice and Andre Dawson.
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Absolutely. According to Baseball Prospectus, Bagwell's career WARP (wins above replacement) is 91.2 whereas the average HOF first baseman's is 61.3.  In Bagwell's peak seasons (1994-2000) he averaged a .309 batting average with 37 home runs, 110 walks, and 20 stolen bases. Add in very good defense and you have one of the most well-rounded ball players in baseball history. 
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? See number five.  It's likely his numbers are right about where they should be due to early offensive repression and late career inflation due to his home ball parks.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? That depends on how you view Mark McGwire, but I would say yes.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? Bagwell won the 1994 N.L. MVP, finished second in 1999, and third in 1997. Additionally, he finished seventh in both 2000 and 2001.  1994 will go down as one of the greatest all round seasons in recent history as he hit .368/.451/.750  with 39 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a gold glove in the strike shortened season.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? Bagwell was a four time all-star but had at least eight seasons that were good enough for an all-star spot.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? Yes, although Houston advanced to the World Series just once while Bagwell was a member of the team. From 1997-1999 Houston lost in the NLDS in just three or four games.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? One thing I'll always remember about Bagwell was the huge elbow pad he wore over his left elbow. This allowed him to crowd the plate with little fear. He led the league in HBP his rookie season and got beaned at least ten times seven seasons in a 15 year career. Late in his career MLB began cracking down on the use of huge armor but Bagwell was able to keep his elbow pad.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? There has been a lot of speculation that Bagwell's performance was enhanced due to the use of steroids, yet there has been no proof or link to his name other than media speculation. Bagwell was not involved in the Balco scandal nor was he included in the Mitchell Report. Yes, he was a very large guy but so was Frank Thomas and we know he's clean. Other than that, Bagwell was considered a good teammate and was friendly with the media.

Zack Greinke traded to Milwaukee

Zack Greinke was not only the best player on the Royals in 2009 but he was the best pitcher in the American League.  Last season he regressed significantly but was still good. After telling the Royals he no longer wanted to be there, nearly every team had a chance to get him.  After about a month of speculation, a winner emerged when the Milwaukee Brewers traded four players for Greinke. 

The breakdown is after the jump.

Cliff Lee: He's baaaaack

I've refrained from adding any commentary relating to free agent signings thus far but "The Decision 2010"--wait, someone already used that? Fine. But Cliff Lee choosing Philadelphia's offer over the Yankees offer, which would have made him ridiculously filthy rich, was a bit surprising.

More Conference Predictions

Yesterday I covered the major conferences so today I'll move on to the mid-majors.

Colonial Athletic Association
Conference Champ: Old Dominion
Other contenders: George Mason, Drexel, VCU, Delaware
Multiple Bids?: 40%
I'm not sure who the best team is.  I know Old Dominion has three impressive wins already (Clemson, Xavier, Richmond) and that they were very good last year.  VCU and George Mason are usually in the mix and the conference's most improved team, Drexel, will be as well.

Conference USA
Conference Champ: Memphis
Other contenders: UTEP, Central Florida, Southern Mississippi
Multiple Bids?: Yes
Apologies to Memphis for not including Conference USA with the other major conferences in yesterday's post. I just have a hard time considering this a power conference when there's only one team who is consistently worthy of a top 5 seed.  That being said, with the expansion in this year's tournament I can see possibly three teams qualifying. Jordan's kid (UCF) is fun to watch.

Horizon League
Conference Champ: Valparaiso
Other contenders: Butler, Cleveland St.
Multiple Bids?: 25%
Still a league that gets no respect even after Butler's run for the ages last year.  I'm picking Valpo on a hunch although I believe Butler is the best team.  Cleveland St. has shown they're no slouch either as they beat Butler twice in 2008-09.

Missouri Valley
Conference Champ: Wichita St.
Other contenders: Missouri St., Northern Iowa, Illinois St., Creighton
Multiple Bids?: 50/50
As usual, the MVC is a solid conference.  There are no elite teams but the top half can compete with just about anybody.  Unfortunately the best win for the conference thus far is Evansville's road victory over Butler.  Only UNI has beaten a power conference team and that was Iowa St.  Not exactly impressive resumes being built here.

Mountain West
Conference Champ: San Diego St.
Other contenders: UNLV, BYU, New Mexico
Multiple Bids?: Absolutely
Last year the MWC proved it was the best mid-major and should possibly be considered a power conference.  This year is the same story. SDSU, BYU, and UNLV should all be ranked and will likely grab a couple of top 5 seeds if they take care of business versus conference opponents as they have already notched quality wins against non-conference foes.  If New Mexico can finish fourth and sneak in a couple of wins from the top three schools they may get an at-large bid as well.

West Coast Conference
Conference Champ: St. Mary's
Other contenders: Gonzaga, Portland
Multiple Bids?: 35%
St. Mary's is my pick this year as they look to build off last year's success in the NCAA Tournament.  A lot of people may think I'm overreacting but has anyone seen Gonzaga play this year?  They've played five teams that can be considered top 50 teams and they are 0-5 in those games.

NCAA Basketball Predictions

It's the time of year where I really get into blogging. Three cheers for college basketball!  In the next few posts I'll delve into my predictions for the upcoming season as well as some mid-major programs to be aware of.  Ok, here we go with the power conferences.

ACC
Conference Champ: Duke
Likely Tournament Teams: Maryland, Florida St., North Carolina
Need a few breaks: Virginia Tech, Miami, Clemson, Boston College
Wait til Next Year: Wake Forest, Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St.
The ACC again will send multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament but as a whole the conference is not as strong as in years past.  That won't stop #1 Duke from trying to become the first repeat champs since Florida in 2006 and 2007.

Atlantic 10
Conference Champ: Richmond
Likely Tournament Teams: Xavier, Temple
Need a few breaks: UMass, Dayton, St. Louis, Charlotte, Rhode Island, Duquense
Wait til Next Year: LaSalle, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, George Washington, Fordham
Richmond has the reigning conference player of the year and has already knocked off Purdue.  Xavier seems to haven taken a small step back but is still solid.  Temple could be a sleeper this season. Well, I guess I should have written this before they beat Georgetown.

Big 12
Conference Champ: Kansas
Likely Tournament Teams: Baylor, Texas, Missouri, Kansas St., Texas A&M
Need a few breaks: Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Wait til Next Year: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas Tech
The Big 12 can arguably be called the deepest conference in the land. Personally, I feel the Big Ten is better but only time will tell which is really the case.  Kansas St. may be the most overrated team in the country but Baylor and Texas A&M are very strong.  Kansas, as usual, is my favorite to win the conference.

Big East
Conference Champ: Pittsburgh
Likely Tournament Teams: Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown
Need a few breaks: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, Marquette
Wait til Next Year: DePaul, Rutgers, South Florida
I honestly have no idea who will win this conference. I'm impressed by Pitt's back to back wins over Maryland and Texas so they're my pick.  The Big East as usual has several good teams but some pretty bad teams. I think DePaul will win more than two conference games this year but I doubt they win five.  Depending on how the year shakes out, I could see a couple of teams in the "Need a few Breaks" category qualify for the Big Dance. Thanks for 68, selection committee.

Big Ten
Conference Champ: Michigan St.
Likely Tournament Teams: Illinois, Ohio St., Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Need a few breaks: Northwestern
Wait til Next Year: Indiana, Penn St., Michigan, Iowa
Unlike years past, the bottom of this conference is not filled with pushovers.  That was often the biggest criticism that prevented the Big Ten from being included in the "Best League" talk. With Iowa substantially improved and Indiana inching toward decency, those days are over.  Michigan St. is playing a brutal schedule early and not faring well--which is typical.  The two teams I'm still watching are Purdue and Northwestern. I'm not sure how either team will do this year.  The rest I'm confident I've pegged in the right spot.

Pac 10
Conference Champ: Washington
Likely Tournament Teams: Washington St., UCLA, Arizona
Need a few breaks: Cal, Stanford, Arizona St.
Wait til Next Year: Oregon St., Oregon, USC (ineligible)
The Pac 10 is a weird conference.  Last year the first place and eighth place team were separated by only two games with just four to go!  I don't expect that to happen again this season. Washington has most of their team returning and has already scored over 100 points four times. Today's game against Texas A&M will say a lot.

SEC
Conference Champ: Kentucky
Likely Tournament Teams: Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Need a few breaks: Mississippi, Georgia, Mississippi St., LSU, Arkansas, Alabama
Wait til Next Year: Auburn, South Carolina
The fact that five teams are bunched in the "Need a few breaks" category should tell you how I feel about the SEC this season. They stink.  The SEC West's best team is Mississippi and I'm not even sure they're a tournament team. Kentucky has a ton of young guys, a staple under Calipari, but I don't think this is a Final Four or even an Elite 8 team.

Tomorrow I'll preview the other conferences that have legitimate tournament teams.