2013 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 


Each year I do a Keltner List of someone whose Hall of Fame credentials need further examination. I haven't done one this year in part because I've been working on something bigger.  This "project" took up considerable time but I think I'm ready to utilize it now. This is good because it's just in time for the Hall of Fame ballot results to be announced.

There are two ways to build a hall of fame case: a long productive career with many good seasons or a strong peak that puts a player among the elite at their position.  Obviously some players did both but many more players failed to do either.  I've created a ranking system called Hall of Fame Score (HOFSc) which is pretty similar to Baseball Prospectus' JAWS.  HOFSc relies upon WAR values whereas BP uses WARP. So let's review each player's candidacy with my new little toy.

Catchers - Avg HOFSc = 45.5
Sandy Alomar, Jr. (15.0): Sandy was an average catcher who hung around for a long time.  He was the 1990 AL Rookie of the Year and played in two World Series with Cleveland.  He was nothing special as a player but seems he had other non-quantifiable virtues that made him a guy teams wanted to have on their team.

Mike Piazza (57.15): Perhaps the greatest offensive catcher of all time, Piazza should be a lock for the Hall.  I have him ranked as the fifth greatest catcher of all time, just behind Yogi Berra.  There are rumors Piazza was a PED user though I've never seen anything concrete in that regard.

2012 Hall of Fame Candidates: Ballot review

Two years ago I did a post about players on the Hall of Fame ballot and it received some positive feedback so I thought I'd do one this year too.

I'm sure we'll hear plenty about Barry Larkin this summer as the lone inductee - and he is a worthy inductee - but this is more of a chance to glance at everyone who didn't make it. Each writer gets to vote for up to ten players or as few as zero. So, if I had a ballot I couldn't vote for the top fifteen guys I feel are Hall worthy.  Below is the shakedown.

Stand up, Barry Larkin, this Bud's for you.

Barry Larkin, 86.4%: Larkin was arguably the best shortstop of the 90's though he's often forgotten when discussing great shortstops of his era.  I'm sure he'll make a nice speech.

Jack Morris, 66.7%: I'm not a fan of his candidacy but it now seems inevitable that he'll be enshrined one day.  His career ERA+ is 105.  Without researching I'm guessing that would be the worst of any Hall of Famer.

Jeff Bagwell, 56.0%: I don't comprehend why he hasn't been inducted. I'm assuming many voters believe he was a steroid user because he was muscular and hit for power.  This is a man who has never been on any lists and was not investigated in the Mitchell Report even though his team trainer was the star witness. He was a good base runner, excellent fielder and his 1994 season is one of the greatest ever by someone not named Bonds or Ruth.

Lee Smith, 50.6%: Lee Smith was a pretty darn good reliever for a long time which is how he was able to amass 478 career saves.  Unfortunately for him relief pitcher is the toughest position to earn enshrinement with only five relievers in the HOF (Wilhelm, Fingers, Eckersley, Gossage, Sutter). Now that his saves record has been broken by two people it's going to be even harder for him to get in.

Tim Raines, 48.7%: This is a significant gain; Raines has more than doubled his vote total since 2009 when he only managed 22%.  Did you know Tim Raines's career OBP is .385?  By comparison, Tony Gwynn's is .388 and last year's inductee Andre Dawson sports a career .325 mark. Just sayin'.

Edgar Martinez, 36.5%: Edgar's holding steady in the mid 30's.  He's a tough case for a lot of voters since he's the first pure DH to warrant serious Hall consideration.  He led the league in batting twice (in the Kingdome!), OBP three times, runs scored twice, doubles twice, runs and RBI once, and finished with a career OPS+ of 147. The man could hit.

Alan Trammell, 36.8%: What's this, a sudden spike in votes for Trammell?  It's his eleventh try on the ballot so it may be too little too late but it's something. Bill James ranked him as the 9th greatest shortstop of all time in his 2000 Baseball Abstract.

Fred McGriff, 23.9%: 493 career home runs ain't what it used to be. I'll have a Keltner List up for McGriff later but as of now his prospects don't look good.

Larry Walker, 22.9%: It's easy to forget how good Walker's statistics are. He won three batting titles, an MVP, seven Gold Gloves, and was a five time All-Star.  That's a pretty good resume.  Still, we need to take his numbers with a grain of salt since he played in Colorado in the pre-Humidor era.  He's a good candidate for a future Keltner List post.

Mark McGwire, 19.5%: 583 career home runs, 12 time all-star, led the league in OBP twice, slugging four times, and OPS+ four times.  Won a gold glove and finished in the top six in MVP voting five times.  Alas, there's a steroid scandal and if weren't for that he'd be in.

Don Mattingly, 17.8%:  Don Mattingly is sort of like Nomar Garciaparra.  He was great in his peak years but otherwise just another player.  Like Nomar, Mattingly had some injuries contribute to his downfall.  If not for that he may have been another Hall of Famer. Always "what if."

Dale Murphy, 14.5%: This is his fourteenth year on the ballot meaning it's 2013 or bust.  He has a pretty solid case to be inducted but when his prime was over so was his career.

Palmeiro: "I have never used steroids." This is all
you need to know about why he's an afterthought.

Rafael Palmeiro, 12.6%: Career longevity led to 3020 hits and 569 home runs. Steroids led to him only getting 72 votes.

Bernie Williams, 9.6%: I figured he would do a little better being a Yankee and all.  See how I feel here.


Everybody mentioned thus far will return on 2013's ballot. The players listed below failed to receive 5% of the vote and won't get another chance for induction.

Juan Gonzalez, 4.0%: I'm pretty surprised he didn't make it over the 5% threshold. He hit 40+ homers five times and had 157 RBI in 1998.  A two-time MVP, even with steroid rumors he deserved better.

Vinny Castilla, 6 votes: Castilla was a good defensive third baseman who had some serious pop. In 1996 and 1997 he finished with the exact same triple crown stats (.304/40/113) which is really weird. He hit 30+ home runs six times.

What happens when you win 2 MVP's, hit 40 home runs
five times but are rumored to have used PEDs?  You get
kicked off the ballot after two years. 

Tim Salmon, 5 votes: Salmon is probably the best player to never make an All-Star game. He finished just one homer shy of 300.

Bill Mueller, 4 votes: Pedro Gomez of ESPN voted for you and not Tim Raines!  A good OBP guy who was underrated until he had his career year with Boston.  After that he became overrated.

Brad Radke, 2 votes: One of the best pitchers in Twins history, Radke had impeccable control and was a 20 game winner once.

Eric Young & Javy Lopez, 1 vote: Lopez probably deserved more while Eric Young should be happy to get one.

Jeremy Burnitz, Ruben Sierra, Phil Nevin, Brian Jordan, Terry Mulholland, and Tony Womack* - 0 votes.  Congrats for being on the ballot.

*Womack somehow made the cut over superior players like Edgardo Alfonzo. 

Jeff Bagwell Keltner List

I'm going to do a series of Keltner list evaluations for players on the Hall of Fame ballot that were not enshrined. I've done this for Tim Raines and Jim Rice in the past.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? Jeff Bagwell won the 1994 NL MVP and was considered one of the game's top players for the remainder of the decade. There was a strong debate on who was the greater first baseman, him or Frank Thomas. Each was often compared to Jimmie Foxx as possibly the second greatest first baseman of all time.
2. Was he the best player on his team? Bagwell was either the first or second best player on his team every year 1993 to 2001.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? Bagwell played at a time where most of the high profile names were also first basemen. Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud, Mark Grace, Will Clark, Jim Thome, and Fred McGriff are contemporaries who will all receive HOF consideration. It's safe to say that at worst Bagwell ranks third in this group behind the Big Hurt and Big Mac.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Houston qualified for the playoffs six times with Bagwell as their first baseman.  They finished second in the division five other times. His performance in the playoffs, however, was the cause of much criticism. He's a career .226/.364/.321 hitter in nine playoff series with only two home runs. Furthermore he was just 1-8 in his only World Series appearance.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? Yes. As he slipped into his mid-thirties the Astros moved from the Astrodome (an extreme pitcher's park) to Enron Field (an extreme hitter's park) hiding his declining performance. His career came to a close as a result of constant, nagging injuries as opposed to declining performance.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? Quite possibly.
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? Bagwell's 449 home runs fall within Hall of Fame standards and his .149 career OPS+ (.448 OBP, .540 SLG) would rank well ahead of other power-hitting first basemen Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda, and Willie McCovey.  Needless to say these numbers also dwarf those of recent inductees Jim Rice and Andre Dawson.
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Absolutely. According to Baseball Prospectus, Bagwell's career WARP (wins above replacement) is 91.2 whereas the average HOF first baseman's is 61.3.  In Bagwell's peak seasons (1994-2000) he averaged a .309 batting average with 37 home runs, 110 walks, and 20 stolen bases. Add in very good defense and you have one of the most well-rounded ball players in baseball history. 
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? See number five.  It's likely his numbers are right about where they should be due to early offensive repression and late career inflation due to his home ball parks.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? That depends on how you view Mark McGwire, but I would say yes.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? Bagwell won the 1994 N.L. MVP, finished second in 1999, and third in 1997. Additionally, he finished seventh in both 2000 and 2001.  1994 will go down as one of the greatest all round seasons in recent history as he hit .368/.451/.750  with 39 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a gold glove in the strike shortened season.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? Bagwell was a four time all-star but had at least eight seasons that were good enough for an all-star spot.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? Yes, although Houston advanced to the World Series just once while Bagwell was a member of the team. From 1997-1999 Houston lost in the NLDS in just three or four games.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? One thing I'll always remember about Bagwell was the huge elbow pad he wore over his left elbow. This allowed him to crowd the plate with little fear. He led the league in HBP his rookie season and got beaned at least ten times seven seasons in a 15 year career. Late in his career MLB began cracking down on the use of huge armor but Bagwell was able to keep his elbow pad.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? There has been a lot of speculation that Bagwell's performance was enhanced due to the use of steroids, yet there has been no proof or link to his name other than media speculation. Bagwell was not involved in the Balco scandal nor was he included in the Mitchell Report. Yes, he was a very large guy but so was Frank Thomas and we know he's clean. Other than that, Bagwell was considered a good teammate and was friendly with the media.