2011 Trade Deadline Primer

The All-Star game has come and gone meaning that now teams must redefine their goals for the season. Some teams have already nearly locked up a playoff spot (Phillies, Rangers) while others know they'll be sitting on their couch come October (Cubs, Astros).  The rest of the teams will spend the next couple of weeks evaluating their position before defining themselves as contenders or pretenders. During July these teams are also known as "buyers" and "sellers."  Many things determine whether a team will look to make a trade such as injury, salary dumps, or even depth. With the July 31st trade deadline rapidly approaching, here is a list of the ten players most likely to be traded.

1. Josh Willingham LF
Since the A's have disappointed and failed to meet the front office's expectations moves will be made. Willingham is a relatively inexpensive player who's only under contract for 2011. The A's will likely use their left field vacancy as an audition for younger players.
Strengths: Above average right-handed power bat with solid on-base skills
Weaknesses: Only an average defensive player with little speed
Cost to acquire: Small. Cash or medium prospect
Likelihood of being moved: 95%
Possible destinations: Philadelphia, Boston, San Francisco, Atlanta, Pittsburgh

2. Mike Adams RP
San Diego isn't fooling anyone this year and will definitely look for deals to help them in the future.  Mike Adams has been one of the top relievers in baseball since his move to San Diego in 2008 and with him due for a nice raise in the off-season expect the Padres to move him to a team searching for right-handed bullpen help.
Strengths: Excellent control, doesn't allow homers, high strike-out rate
Weaknesses: None really, but you can expect his ERA to rise if he is moved to a hitters park and/or a team with a poor defense.
Cost to acquire: Medium-High. One top prospect or two solid ones should do it though the Pads would prefer the former.
Likelihood of being moved: 85%
Possible destinations: Anywhere, but I've got my eye on Texas.

3. Wilson Betemit 3B
The once former top-prospect was on the verge of becoming a baseball vagabond until last season in Kansas City.  He's always had some pop but his defense became acceptable and he hit for a decent average for the first time since his Atlanta days.
Strengths: Switch hitter, positional versatility
Weaknesses: Often struggles vs. left-handed pitchers and can be overpowered by hard fastballs.
Cost to acquire: Low. The Royals recently called up 3B prospect Mike Moustakas so Betemit is back to being a bench player.
Likelihood of being moved: 80%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee

4. Carlos Beltran OF
Carlos Beltran is likely the best player that's readily available.  He missed large chunks of 2009 and 2010 due to knee injuries but he's back with a vengeance this season as he currently leads the National League in doubles.
Strengths: Good hitter from both sides of the plate, good power, excellent baserunner even though he no longer steals many bases, having a good season defensively as well
Weaknesses: No longer can play center field, potential knee issues
Cost to acquire: High. The Mets will want a grade A prospect and likely some salary relief from the $18.5 million Beltran is earning this season. Good players don't come cheap.
Likelihood of being moved: 70%
Possible destinations: Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland

5. Jamey Carroll INF
The Dodgers are out of it and-- thanks to their owner filing for bankruptcy-- in desperate need of salary relief.
Strengths: Solid utility player who can contribute offensively
Weaknesses: Stretched at shortstop, 12 career HR in over 1000 career games
Cost to acquire: Low. Carroll has appeal to several teams so his value will probably be driven up in the bidding process but salary relief is likely LA's number one demand
Likelihood of being moved: 67%
Possible destinations: Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago Sox, Braves, St. Louis

6. Tyler Clippard RP
Washington has shown real signs of growth this season and is realistically only a couple of seasons away from putting a playoff-caliber team on the field. Trading Clippard will help the team move in this direction.
Strengths: Stretched as a starter, Clippard has proven to be an excellent long man, situational man, or even late inning reliever.
Weaknesses: Can be prone to give up the gopher ball
Cost to acquire: Medium. While the Nats are actively shopping him, they'll likely be overwhelmed by an offer from some team. He's making the league minimum but is due for his first raise in arbitration this offseason.
Likelihood of being moved: 60%
Possible destinations: Atlanta, St. Louis, Yankees, Philadelphia, Arizona, Tampa

7. BJ Upton CF
While Tampa would be considered a contender by many, they're not against reshaping their team to improve themselves for next year as well. Upton's not having his best season and it might be a time for a change of scenery; the Rays may be ready to see him go.

Strengths: Elite speed, very good defensive player, at times has some serious pop
Weaknesses: Attitude and effort are questionable at times, susceptible to prolonged slumps
Cost to acquire: Medium. Tampa already has his replacement ready in AAA but they'll need something worthwhile to move him.
Likelihood of being moved: 50%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati

8. Jeremy Guthrie SP
Guthrie has been Baltimore's #1 starter the last few seasons more by default than by actual performance.  Still, he's durable and can eat up a lot of innings. Teams could do a lot worse.
Strengths: Excellent control, durable
Weaknesses: Gives up a lot of homers, struggles to put hitters away
Cost to acquire: Medium. A major league ready pitcher is a must though he doesn't have to be a future stud.
Likelihood of being moved: 45%
Possible destinations: Detroit, Arizona, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, St. Louis

9. Ivan Rodriguez C
Rodriguez is no longer the catcher he once was but he can still be an asset to a contender. Washington has been utilizing him in a back-up role all season to give their younger players more experience.
Strengths: Cannon arm, defensive master, experience and leadership
Weaknesses: His offensive skills have eroded greatly
Cost to acquire: Low. Lots of cash or a C+ prospect and cash might do it.
Likelihood of being moved: 40%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Yankees, Boston, Detroit

10. Ty Wigginton UT

Colorado has been ravaged by the injury bug this season to the extent that it's likely ended their playoff aspirations already.  Wigginton has been hitting well but really doesn't have a place to play everyday on this team. Look for him to be moved.
Strengths: Defensive versatility, good power, performs well as a bench player
Weaknesses: Has not had a good season batting average wise and is a crappy second baseman
Cost to acquire: Low. Any B prospect should be enough to pry Wigginton away.
Likelihood of being moved: 40%
Possible destinations: San Francisco, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit

Surprise Deal: Michael Bourn CF
I haven't heard Bourn's name mentioned in any rumors but this is a move that makes too much sense to me.  Houston is awful, awful, awful, and there are several teams out there who could use a good center fielder.
Strengths: Maybe the best defensive center fielder in baseball, excellent baserunner/stealer
Weaknesses: No power, doesn't hit for high average or have a high walk rate
Cost to acquire: Medium-High. He's not really on the market but a solid offer ought to get him. Two B prospects and a young major leaguer should be more than enough.
Likelihood of being moved: 33%
Possible destinations: Atlanta, Tampa, Boston, San Francisco, Detroit, Cleveland

Observations from the Trop

Last Saturday I made my way down to Tampa to meet up with my family for the long weekend. While there we all went to the Rays game versus the Indians.  The game failed to reach the level of excitement I anticipated beforehand (though Avril Lavigne did her best to draw attention to the post-game activities). I talked up James Shields all morning about how he was the AL Cy Young frontrunner only to see him give up two runs in the first where he was actually hit pretty hard. The Indians piled on late in the game and held on for a 7-3 win. Below are some notes I took during the game:

Pre Game

• Avril Lavigne throws out the first pitch. Not only is she tiny (Yahoo! says she's between 5'2" and 5'3" probably 100lbs soaking wet) but she can't throw. Standing a good ten feet in front of the mound she one hops the throw to the catcher at home plate.
• Carlos Carrasco is warming up in the bullpen for Cleveland. Looks like he's throwing hard.
• Evan Longoria is batting leadoff for the first time in his career. 
• I'm excited Grady Sizemore is back in the lineup (though he's just DHing) after missing time with a knee injury. He's an exciting player when healthy

Top of the 1st

• Shields gives up a hard hit single and a triple to the first two batters but does something I've never seen live before when he picks Asdrubal Cabrera off third base. The play was obviously planned as Longoria sprinted from his spot deep on the dirt to the bag to get Cabrera.
• The next two batters single but Shields gets out of the inning when the Indians fly out to right on a hit and run play resulting in a double play.

Bottom of the 1st

• Evan Longoria singles in his first career at-bat as a leadoff hitter. Nice.

Top 2

• Casey Kotchman shows how he's managed to stick around in the bigs with a nice leaping play at first to rob Sizemore of a double
• Matt LaPorta absolutely crushes one to right for an opposite field-line drive homer. Shields strikes out two but has already given up three runs and five hits.

Top 3

• Shields appears to be making adjustments and now seems unwilling to give in. Makes it out of the inning without allowing a run but still walked two. 

Bottom 3

• Longoria homers to dead center. I guess he likes this leadoff spot (even though he didn't lead off this inning).
• Johnny Damon doubles into the right field corner. The guy can still pull the ball down the line. Three years ago he'd be standing on third.
• Choo does a so-so job digging it out of the corner but shows off his strong arm by throwing a laser to the second baseman.

Bottom 4

• Matt Joyce gets a hit to raise his AL leading average to .358. 
• Kotchman - who also is miraculously hitting over .330 - hits a bleeder through the infield which advances Joyce to third.
• Sean Rodriguez beatifully bunts down the first base line on a suicide squeeze. The official scorer rules it a hit which I think is a mistake. If Carrasco had thrown to first instead of home he would have gotten an out. Instead it's first and second for Tampa though they won't score again this inning.

Top 5

• Shields has officially settled in. Whatever plagued him the first two innings has been remedied.  He now has eight strikeouts through five innings after striking out 2 in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th.

Top 6

• Creighton takes over scorekeeping duties as I pick at a poorly prepared Papa John's pizza. I think this will be the last pizza I grab at the Trop. It's hot dogs or Outback from here on out.
• After a few unsuccessful attempts, a wave breaks out in the lower section. I hate the wave. I hate it even more than this pizza.
• Creighton comments that Carlos Santana has a cool name.

Bottom 6

• BJ Upton is completely lost. He's struck out twice and now grounded out. When he's on he's a superstar but when he's not he looks very, very bad.
• Carlos Carrasco has been very effective this evening. The Rays go down 1-2-3 in the sixth without hitting the ball out of the infield.
• Asdrubal Cabrera is a slick shortstop. He gets to almost everything and looks smooth. I can see why Cleveland was so high on him a couple of years ago.
• Carrasco final line is 6 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, no walks, and four strikeouts.

Top 7

• Shields gets the Indians to go down 1-2-3 in the seventh. You really have to give it to him for keeping his team in the game after having a rough start.
• Shields' final line is 7-7-3-3-8. A strong performance.

Bottom 7

• With speedy Sam Fuld on second, Johnny Damon steps up to try and get a big hit. After working a 2-2 count with several foul balls, Tony Sipp throws one up and in which pushes Damon off the plate. Unfortunately in the process of moving out of the way Damon's bat crossed home plate for a swinging strike. Damon argues and a chorus of boos erupt from the Tampa fans. Good to see they're still awake.

Top 8

• JP Howell makes another appearance. Howell missed all of 2010 and early parts of 2011 due to arm problems and still doesn't seem to be right. The Indians must think it's batting practice because they're getting some good swings.
• After a Michael Brantley single, Asdrubal Cabrera hits a hard sinking liner to second. Zobrist doesn't get in front of it and boots it badly for an error. Wait, now it's a hit. Bad call.
• Choo gets hit by a pitch to load the bases causing the Rays to go into an interesting defensive alignment with Travis Buck up. See the image below:
• 
• Howell gets lifted after Buck singles and Kyle Farnsworth comes in to finish the inning. The damage has been done though with the Indians plating four more runners.
• Speaking of Farnsworth, the former Cub is having a career year with that 1.50 ERA he's sporting.

Bottom 8

• Rays go weakly in the eighth as Tony Sipp mows them down in order.

Bottom 9

• Casey Kotchman of all people leads off the inning with a double off Rafael Perez. Perez has never really been the same after Cleveland abused him during their 2007 post-season run.
• Sean Rodriguez singles to put runners on the corners.
• After Sam Fuld and John Jaso each hit infield pop-ups, Longoria walks to load the bases second. 
• Chris Perez is called in because it's a "save situation". What a bunch of baloney. Yes, the bases are loaded but there's two outs and the batter is not the tying run. Leave him out there to finish the game!
• Johnny Damon works a tough at bat and hits a hot shot down the line that LaPorta gets in front of but can't handle. Kotchman scores and Damon is safe on the error.
• Evan Longoria evidently thought Rodriguez was going to score too because he sprints down to third base only to find...Rodriguez. Rodriguez, now in a run-down between third and home, does a great job of making the Cleveland infielders work even diving under a tag at one point to keep the pickle alive. Alas, he is tagged out and the game ends. Longoria, who had the offensive heroics to keep the team in the game early, makes the bonehead baserunning move late to end the game.

Final Thoughts

The Rays offense just never got going today while the Indians took advantage of a shaky James Shields early on. Though the Rays had the bases loaded in the 9th it's unlikely they would have won even without the baserunning blunder since they were already down to their last out. I love going to games and it's always a plus when you go with people you like. Thanks Mom!