Breaking down the Royals-Rays trade

My friend and former blog contributor Taylor asked me to give my take on the trade. I thought it'd make a pretty nice blog post too so I've pasted what I said.

Ok, here's the deal:

Royals get James Shields (2 yrs $21 million) and Wade Davis (4 yrs, still pre-arbitration) plus a player to be named/cash.

Rays get: #1 prospect Wil Myers, middling prospect SP Mike Montgomery, SP prospect Jake Odirizzi, and 3B Patrick Leonard.

Let's start with the Rays. 

• Wil Myers should immediately start in RF for them. He is the #1 hitting prospect in baseball and even if he doesn't hit for a high average, he has good power and will be a very good player.  
• Jake Odorizzi was probably the first or second best pitching prospect for the Royals. They must not have much faith in him contributing right away or else he would not have been included in this deal.  Tampa probably gives him a shot to win the #5 starter spot in spring training with becoming a #3 starter being his eventual ceiling.
• Mike Montgomery was regarded as the Royals top pitching prospect two seasons ago but since then he's been pretty mediocre or hurt.  He's your classic throw in to a big trade like this where the acquiring team hopes a new coaching staff can help him out of his funk. Boom or bust here.
• Leonard could turn out to be a real steal. He's got a ton of power but right now has trouble making consistent contact.  However, he's only in low A ball and you can't really predict how he'll turn out. He's still too far away.
• Essentially Tampa knew they needed hitting help and had excess pitching so calling up the Royals for Myers is a move that makes too much sense.

Now for the Royals:

• James Shields is 31 years old and is an above average pitcher. He is not an ace. He can win 15+ games for  you and pitch 200+ innings. But remember, Tampa is a pitcher's park and the Rays had the best defense in the majors last year. Those definitely helped his numbers.  However, whose spot does he take in the rotation? Bruce Chen? He's a significant upgrade over what they had but he'll only be around for two years.
• Wade Davis is a guy who the Rays moved to the pen because he was really struggling as a starter. Apparently last year he ironed some things out and many people believe he deserves another shot as a starter. As a reliever he's very good and could work anywhere from long relief to closer.  As a starter he's probably a #4 guy at best - which isn't bad! #4 Starters get $8-12 million dollar contracts these days.
• This trade makes me think the Royals were really frustrated with their inability to trade or sign a front line starter this off-season.  Giving up Wil Myers isn't inherently bad; it's just that they gave up a lot with him for someone who is not an ace.  Now Jeff Francoeur is locked in as the starting RF for another season when it's possible just promoting Myers and cutting ties with Frenchy (the worst position player in the AL last season) would have yielded the same improvement as trading for a new starter.  That's the gut punch.
• The silver lining in all of this is that Wil Myers is not a slam dunk. No prospect is.  All the hype around him is speculative but I'm convinced he's already better than Jeff Francoeur. And with the AL Central a toss up every year the Royals struck while the iron is hot so they can actually try to win now for once.

2012 MLB Preview: Predictions

It's a little late but I've decided to publish my preseason predictions anyway.

American League
East
New York	96	66	Have a solid rotation to match formidable offense
Tampa Bay	92	70	Maybe the best rotation in baseball
Boston	87	75	Lack of depth will cost them
Toronto	85	77	Still building but no playoffs in this division
Baltimore	68	94	Future is bright but rotation is worst in AL
Central
Detroit	91	71	Will lead the league in runs scored, errors
Cleveland	80	82	Need one more starter to be a factor
Chicago	77	85	Rios, Dunn rebound but Peavy, bullpen falter
Kansas City	76	86	Still waiting on young pitching to make impact
Minnesota	62	100	Questions about Mauer, Morneau, Baker linger
West
Texas	95	67	Most well rounded team in AL
LAA	89	73	Still have problems at LF, 3B, C
Seattle	73	89	Back end of rotation no match for AL offenses
Oakland	70	92	Cespedes and Weeks are good but not enough
National League
East
Atlanta	87	75	Heyward bounceback, trade of Lowe is enough
Philadelphia	86	76	Injuries to Howard, Utley hold team back
Miami	84	78	Poor outfield defense really hurts in new park
Washington	82	80	Too many questions on offense
New York	75	87	Not as bad as many expected
Central
Milwaukee	88	74	Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum combine for 54 wins
Cincinnati	87	75	Votto, Bruce lead league in teammate HR
St. Louis	84	78	Berkman, Beltran not as good as 2011
Pittsburgh	76	86	Deadline deals prevent team from reaching .500
Chicago	69	93	Theo's first year will be his worst
Houston	50	112	Have questions everywhere except 2B, LF
West
San Francisco	91	71	Great pitching and good offense takes division
Arizona	90	72	Upton, Young become top NL outfield duo
Colorado	78	84	Tulo accumulates more WAR than any 2 'mates
Los Angeles	77	85	Disgruntled Ethier, Kemp regression hurt team
San Diego	75	87	Hang tough thanks to home field advantage

2012 MLB Preview: AL East

Every year there is talk about how baseball should approach realignment to make it more fair for the other teams in the American League East division.  "Who can compete when you've got teams tripling the payroll of the other teams?" they say.  The Yankees and Red Sox are two of the most successful teams in baseball right now and it's no coincidence that they're the two big spenders, too. But frugal Tampa Bay has had success right along with them of late and looks to be there again this season as well.  Now Toronto's rebuild is beginning to bear fruit and after finishing with a winning record last season, the team looks to take the next step with some exciting young players.  Baltimore is in the middle of what seems like a never ending rebuilding process but there are beginning to be signs of changes for the positive.  All of these factors make this a division to watch this summer.  The Yankees and Red Sox are not invulnerable meaning maybe it's someone else's time for a change.  This should end all that nonsense about "fairness" and realignment.

Baltimore Orioles

2011 Record: 69-93

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $97 million
Highest Paid Player: Nick Markakis - $12 million
Best Player: Catcher Matt Wieters broke out last season but I believe the best is yet to come.
Best Pitcher: Jake Arrieta gets the nod over Brian Matusz here simply because of how awful Matusz was last season.
Say Hello To: Darren O'Day RP, Taylor Teagarden C, Endy Chavez OF, Jai Miller OF, Wilson Betemit 3B, Armando Galarraga SP, Ronny Paulino C, Jason Hammel SP, Matt Lindstrom RP, Nick Johnson 1B
Wave Goodbye: Craig Tatum RP (Hou), Vladimir Guerrero (Japan), Cesar Izturis SS (Mil), Luke Scott DH (TB), Jo-Jo Reyes SP (Pit), Jeremy Guthrie SP (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. What is the organizational plan? The team believes by abstaining from big name free agents and allocating that money to player development through the draft and via international signees they'll be able to build a better foundation that will allow for prolonged success.  The only problem with this method is it takes a long time to see results.

2. Is Brian Matusz's career as an effective big leaguer over? That's a little harsh but there are reasons to be concerned. Whispers about work ethic may not be unfounded but the bigger question is why did his velocity and command slip so much last season? If he posts another year like 2011 he'll go from elite prospect to bust in less than two years.

3. What's the latest on Brian Roberts' health?  In May of last season Roberts hit his head sliding into first base and suffered a severe concussion.  He missed the rest of the season and has not participated in live games in spring training.  The team is likely optimistic he'll play soon since they put him on the 15 day DL and not the 60 day DL.

Expectations: It's going to be another losing season thanks to being in a stacked division.  If the young pitchers can take a step forward there will be reason for optimism, otherwise the team will be going backwards - not a good sign when you're already in last place.

Matt Wieters is another example of how it often takes a catcher
 longer than the average hitter to develop his offensive skills.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Reimold LF

2. Johnson DH

3. Markakis RF

4. Jones CF
5. Wieters C

6. Hardy SS

7. Reynolds 3B

8. Davis 1B
9. Andino 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Arrieta
2. Hammel
3. Chen
4. Hunter
5. Matusz

CL: Johnson

Observations from the Trop

Last Saturday I made my way down to Tampa to meet up with my family for the long weekend. While there we all went to the Rays game versus the Indians.  The game failed to reach the level of excitement I anticipated beforehand (though Avril Lavigne did her best to draw attention to the post-game activities). I talked up James Shields all morning about how he was the AL Cy Young frontrunner only to see him give up two runs in the first where he was actually hit pretty hard. The Indians piled on late in the game and held on for a 7-3 win. Below are some notes I took during the game:

Pre Game

• Avril Lavigne throws out the first pitch. Not only is she tiny (Yahoo! says she's between 5'2" and 5'3" probably 100lbs soaking wet) but she can't throw. Standing a good ten feet in front of the mound she one hops the throw to the catcher at home plate.
• Carlos Carrasco is warming up in the bullpen for Cleveland. Looks like he's throwing hard.
• Evan Longoria is batting leadoff for the first time in his career. 
• I'm excited Grady Sizemore is back in the lineup (though he's just DHing) after missing time with a knee injury. He's an exciting player when healthy

Top of the 1st

• Shields gives up a hard hit single and a triple to the first two batters but does something I've never seen live before when he picks Asdrubal Cabrera off third base. The play was obviously planned as Longoria sprinted from his spot deep on the dirt to the bag to get Cabrera.
• The next two batters single but Shields gets out of the inning when the Indians fly out to right on a hit and run play resulting in a double play.

Bottom of the 1st

• Evan Longoria singles in his first career at-bat as a leadoff hitter. Nice.

Top 2

• Casey Kotchman shows how he's managed to stick around in the bigs with a nice leaping play at first to rob Sizemore of a double
• Matt LaPorta absolutely crushes one to right for an opposite field-line drive homer. Shields strikes out two but has already given up three runs and five hits.

Top 3

• Shields appears to be making adjustments and now seems unwilling to give in. Makes it out of the inning without allowing a run but still walked two. 

Bottom 3

• Longoria homers to dead center. I guess he likes this leadoff spot (even though he didn't lead off this inning).
• Johnny Damon doubles into the right field corner. The guy can still pull the ball down the line. Three years ago he'd be standing on third.
• Choo does a so-so job digging it out of the corner but shows off his strong arm by throwing a laser to the second baseman.

Bottom 4

• Matt Joyce gets a hit to raise his AL leading average to .358. 
• Kotchman - who also is miraculously hitting over .330 - hits a bleeder through the infield which advances Joyce to third.
• Sean Rodriguez beatifully bunts down the first base line on a suicide squeeze. The official scorer rules it a hit which I think is a mistake. If Carrasco had thrown to first instead of home he would have gotten an out. Instead it's first and second for Tampa though they won't score again this inning.

Top 5

• Shields has officially settled in. Whatever plagued him the first two innings has been remedied.  He now has eight strikeouts through five innings after striking out 2 in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th.

Top 6

• Creighton takes over scorekeeping duties as I pick at a poorly prepared Papa John's pizza. I think this will be the last pizza I grab at the Trop. It's hot dogs or Outback from here on out.
• After a few unsuccessful attempts, a wave breaks out in the lower section. I hate the wave. I hate it even more than this pizza.
• Creighton comments that Carlos Santana has a cool name.

Bottom 6

• BJ Upton is completely lost. He's struck out twice and now grounded out. When he's on he's a superstar but when he's not he looks very, very bad.
• Carlos Carrasco has been very effective this evening. The Rays go down 1-2-3 in the sixth without hitting the ball out of the infield.
• Asdrubal Cabrera is a slick shortstop. He gets to almost everything and looks smooth. I can see why Cleveland was so high on him a couple of years ago.
• Carrasco final line is 6 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, no walks, and four strikeouts.

Top 7

• Shields gets the Indians to go down 1-2-3 in the seventh. You really have to give it to him for keeping his team in the game after having a rough start.
• Shields' final line is 7-7-3-3-8. A strong performance.

Bottom 7

• With speedy Sam Fuld on second, Johnny Damon steps up to try and get a big hit. After working a 2-2 count with several foul balls, Tony Sipp throws one up and in which pushes Damon off the plate. Unfortunately in the process of moving out of the way Damon's bat crossed home plate for a swinging strike. Damon argues and a chorus of boos erupt from the Tampa fans. Good to see they're still awake.

Top 8

• JP Howell makes another appearance. Howell missed all of 2010 and early parts of 2011 due to arm problems and still doesn't seem to be right. The Indians must think it's batting practice because they're getting some good swings.
• After a Michael Brantley single, Asdrubal Cabrera hits a hard sinking liner to second. Zobrist doesn't get in front of it and boots it badly for an error. Wait, now it's a hit. Bad call.
• Choo gets hit by a pitch to load the bases causing the Rays to go into an interesting defensive alignment with Travis Buck up. See the image below:
• 
• Howell gets lifted after Buck singles and Kyle Farnsworth comes in to finish the inning. The damage has been done though with the Indians plating four more runners.
• Speaking of Farnsworth, the former Cub is having a career year with that 1.50 ERA he's sporting.

Bottom 8

• Rays go weakly in the eighth as Tony Sipp mows them down in order.

Bottom 9

• Casey Kotchman of all people leads off the inning with a double off Rafael Perez. Perez has never really been the same after Cleveland abused him during their 2007 post-season run.
• Sean Rodriguez singles to put runners on the corners.
• After Sam Fuld and John Jaso each hit infield pop-ups, Longoria walks to load the bases second. 
• Chris Perez is called in because it's a "save situation". What a bunch of baloney. Yes, the bases are loaded but there's two outs and the batter is not the tying run. Leave him out there to finish the game!
• Johnny Damon works a tough at bat and hits a hot shot down the line that LaPorta gets in front of but can't handle. Kotchman scores and Damon is safe on the error.
• Evan Longoria evidently thought Rodriguez was going to score too because he sprints down to third base only to find...Rodriguez. Rodriguez, now in a run-down between third and home, does a great job of making the Cleveland infielders work even diving under a tag at one point to keep the pickle alive. Alas, he is tagged out and the game ends. Longoria, who had the offensive heroics to keep the team in the game early, makes the bonehead baserunning move late to end the game.

Final Thoughts

The Rays offense just never got going today while the Indians took advantage of a shaky James Shields early on. Though the Rays had the bases loaded in the 9th it's unlikely they would have won even without the baserunning blunder since they were already down to their last out. I love going to games and it's always a plus when you go with people you like. Thanks Mom!