March 10th, 2012 Madness (updated)

The Buffaloes have found greener pastures in the Pac 12 - ask Nebraska how their
move to the BIG went. Will they finish their impressive run to the conference tournament
final today and secure an automatic bid?

This is the final weekend before the bracket is announced. I've done a comprehensive check of all the teams who hope to avoid the NIT and play for the national title.  Here are a few notes followed by how everything looks at 1:30 pm today.

• Texas' win over Iowa St. pushes them into the "Should be In" category.  Despite a 1-8 record vs. the top 25, they're 48 in RPI meaning the committee will likely select them as an at-large team.
• The lack of upsets in the mid-majors means the bubble remains large (or soft in you prefer ESPN's lingo) enough for multiple power conference bubble teams to qualify.  West Virginia and Seton Hall send their thanks.
• It looks like the Pac 12 will only get two bids this year. Cal is a lock and with Arizona and Colorado playing in the conference tournament, the winner will likely steal a bid and push Washington off the bubble.
• As much as I'd like to see Drexel (27-6) and Iona (25-7) in the tournament there's just a noticeable lack of good wins for both programs.  I can see Drexel squeaking in but Iona's loss in the second round if their conference tournament was probably a death blow.
• I forgot to include Long Beach St. in the bubble team section earlier.  They are definitely in the hunt for an at-large bid if they fail to win their championship game tonight. Win, however, and the point is moot.
• Kentucky's win today assured them of getting the number one seed in the Louisville region.  I don't care who they play, getting that kind of advantage in the first weekend's games makes them a lock for the Sweet 16.
• Xavier's big win over St. Louis should be enough to get them in.  They've got quality wins but were on the bubble thanks to losing five out of six games after their brawl with Cincinnati.
• By advancing to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan St. stays in the hunt for a number one seed.  I've got them #5 on the S-curve right now behind Kansas and just ahead of Missouri.  These three teams are so tightly bunched right now that their final game will determine how they're seeded.
• Ohio St.'s win over Michigan locks them up at a 2 seed.  Duke's loss means they may have fallen behind Ohio St. on the S-curve and if OSU wins tomorrow they'll definitely be ahead of the Blue Devils.
• Bubble teams everywhere let out a sigh of relief when Vanderbilt finished off Ole Miss today.  That's another potential bubble spot that remains open for an at-large team.
• Keep your eye on the Pac 12 tonight.  Whichever team wins is going dancing and the loser likely goes to the NIT.

Updated at 6:25pm.

Conference Power Rankings: Missouri Valley

The Missouri Valley is a conference I enjoy following and this was before I attended one of the schools.  I've always liked the mid-majors but this is a conference whose style is similar to that of the Big Ten.  The tempo is slower than most, defense is emphasized, and rebounding and fundamentals are a must.  Think of it as the Big Ten's little brother.  Though it's been a few seasons since the MVC has made an impact in March, I believe the conference is turning the corner.  This is exemplified by the top two teams Creighton and Wichita St.  If they have success in the NCAA Tournament it's likely the conference will ride the effect for several years much like the Colonial did after George Mason's great run from 2006.

Father and son have been a lethal combination for the 
 Blue Jays this season. Winning Coach and Player of  the Year honors
may be just the beginning of this team's post-season success. 

1. Creighton 18-2 (8-1) - The Blue Jays avenged their only conference loss last week with a one point victory over Missouri St.  If they can defeat Wichita St. in the rematch there will be no doubt who the best team in the conference is.  Winning the conference title will also be a big help to Doug McDermott's All American chances.
2. Wichita St. 17-3 (8-1) - The Shockers' three losses this season have come to Alabama, Temple, and Creighton.  While it's a bit worrisome they haven't defeated any of the ranked teams they've played, they're close to a lock for an NCAA berth.  The rematch with Creighton takes place in Omaha on Feb 11th.
3. Missouri St. 12-9 (5-4) - To me this team has been a bit disappointing.  Losing to Creighton and Wichita St. is fine but the two home losses to Evansville and Illinois St. sting.  They'll have to win the conference tournament to earn the MVC a third NCAA bid.
4. Drake 12-8 (5-4) - They're 0-4 against Creighton, Missouri St., and UNI and haven't even played Wichita St. yet.  Basically they're beating up on the bottom of the conference which is nice but getting a couple of wins against the top teams would go a long way in building their NIT resume.
5. Evansville 10-9 (5-4) - Currently riding a three game winning streak, junior Colt Ryan has emerged as one of the conference's top players highlighted by his 39 points against Bradley.
6. Northern Iowa 14-7 (4-5) - After playing great in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Panthers have been mediocre during the regular season. They have a nice one point win over Missouri St. but also lost to Bradley.  They have a good enough non-con profile that they could have been a bubble team but it's too late for that now unless they go undefeated the rest of the way.
7. Illinois St. 12-8 (4-5) - After starting off 3-1 in conference play, the Redbirds have gone 1-4 with their only win coming against Indiana St.  While ISU is + 14 in turnovers in their last four losses, they're only forcing 11 a game.  That's not enough when you're allowing opponents to make 46% of their two point shots.
8. Southern Illinois 6-14 (3-6) - SIU opponents shoot free throws on 52% of their field goal attempts. That is an atrocious number that I'm willing to bet ranks in the bottom ten in the nation.  They also shoot 28% from three while allowing opponents to shoot 36%.  In case you're not getting the hint, this team is bad - worse than their record suggests.
9. Indiana St. 11-7 (2-7) - What happened to this team? Their poor conference record is a result of the odd combination of not defending the three and not getting offensive rebounds.  I expected much more from this squad.
10. Bradley 6-15 (1-8) - Their one win is perhaps the biggest surprise of the conference season thus far (defeated NIU 78-67).  They could squeak out a couple of more before the season ends but this team is pretty much entrenched in last place.

NCAA Conference Power Rankings: Final list of 2011

In January I'll begin doing the Power 16 and soon my NCAATournament predictions while continuing the mid-major rankings.  I've been asked to do another conference power ranking this month and I think now is a good time.  This way we can kind of see how all the conferences stack up with each other before conference play really swings into full gear.

Matt Carlino's transfer from UCLA has been a
revelation for BYU and the entire WCC.

1. Big Ten - The entire conference enjoyed non-conference play while picking up numerous quality wins including Kentucky and Duke.  Have eight or nine teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations while Ohio St. may be the best team in the country.  Non-conference record: 123-28.
2. Big 12 - There's only 10 teams in the Big 12 this year and with the losses of Nebraska and Colorado the conference as a whole is improved.  Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri look like potential Final Four teams.  Non-conferenc record: 91-24.

Looking Back: Last Chance for Quality Wins

Happy Holidays everyone!  This week marked the last opportunity for many teams to make a statement before the conference slate begins this week.  Here are several games from last week that caught my eye:

Resume Building Wins

• Creighton 87 - Northwestern 79: Creighton is now 3-0 against the best conference in the country, the Big Ten.
• Oklahoma St. 69 - Alabama 52: This is a big victory by a team who's expected to finish in the middle of the Big 12.  Alabama is a strong contender for the SEC West crown but this loss should only provide further evidence about how much better the Big 12 is than the SEC.
• Indiana St. 61 - Vanderbilt 55: Another big win for the MVC over a sure thing NCAA Tournament team.
• Davidson 80 - Kansas 74: This is the biggest win for any team this season.  Davidson is now a legit mid-major at-large team.  
• UNLV 85 - Cal 68: The Runnin Rebels have effectively moved on after being humbled at Wisconsin.  This is a team that could win a couple of games in March.

Missed Opportunities

• Illinois 74 - Missouri 78: The Illini hung tough for the entire contest but never could get over the hump. If they struggle in BIG play then this loss will hurt.
• Missouri St. 68 - West Virginia 70 (OT): This game is one that not only hurts Missouri St. but also affects the entire MVC.  Getting a win versus a quality Big East foe on a neutral court would've added to the credibility of the entire conference.
• Dayton 64 - Seton Hall 69: Dayton will have a hard time finishing in the top three of the A10 this season so non-conference wins are a great opportunity to prove they're still an NCAA team. Losing at home to a bottom half Big East team does not help.
• Northwestern 79 - Creighton 87: I know I've already mentioned this game but for a team who has NEVER (seriously, this is the only BCS school to have never made the NCAA Tournament) qualified for the Big Dance marquee wins are important. Finishing in the middle of the Big Ten won't be enough.

Damaging Losses

• Xavier 82 - Hawai'i 84 (OT):  Their two losses to Oral Roberts and Long Beach St. shouldn't come as a surprise after the fallout from their fight with Cincinnati.  The loss to Hawaii, however, hurts. Xavier is an NCAA Tournament team, no doubt, but this one will hurt their seeding.
• Purdue 65 - Butler 67: Losing a game you've led for 39 minutes to a team who is not expected to qualify for the NCAA Tournament hurts.
• Washington 72 - South Dakota St. 93: This loss could really affect the RPI for the entire Pac 12.  Washington is arguably one of the top three teams so a bad loss to an average DI team in a non-power conference could have ugly ramifications.

NCAA Basketball: Mid-Major Conference Predictions

We've gotten some decent traffic on the site when putting a new post up about mid-majors.  As a follow up to yesterday's post discussing my conference predictions and NCAA Tournament predictions, I've construed a similar post for the most successful mid-majors.  Take a look below:

Colonial Athletic Association

Conference Champ: VCU

Other contenders: George Mason, Georgia St., Old Dominion, Drexel

Multiple Bids?: 50%

We all remember what VCU did last season and though they lost several starters they appear to be the best team.  Georgia St. and George Mason are also right there and it's anybody's guess who wins the league. Based on the success of this conference in past NCAA Tournaments I could see a bubble team getting the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday.

Horizon League

Conference Champ: Cleveland St.

Other contenders: Milwaukee, Butler, Valparaiso.

Multiple Bids?: 25%

Cleveland St's loss to South Florida may prevent them from earning an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament.  Still, they've looked the best in the early going and remain my pick to win their league.  Milwaukee looks to be their biggest challenger but I refuse to discount Butler after their success the last two seasons.  Valpo may be a stretch but have already beaten Butler to start the conference season.

Preseason Conference Power Rankings

Obviously these rankings are compiled purely on my best guesses on what will happen during the season.  Once the games begin and we have some statistical evidence, my opinions will change. Basically, don’t put too much stock into these. Let the games begin!

1.       Big East - Every year this conference sends at least eight teams to the tournament. I expect that to hold true to form in 2012 with multiple teams vying for a 1 or 2 seed.

2.       Big 12 – No more Nebraska! No more Colorado! Really, these two schools weren’t that bad last year but they’re not tournament contenders either.  A ten team conference that sends five or six schools dancing plus a national title contender in Kansas make this conference look good.

3.       Big 10 – The BIG lost a lot of talent after last season but there are some great freshmen on campus.  Six teams will likely go dancing with the possibility of eight come March.

4.       SEC – Last year the SEC was just mediocre.  That’s partly due to it being young. Now Alabama is ranked, Kentucky seems poised to grab a 1 seed, and a few other schools look to join them in the Big Dance.  The divisions remain imbalanced so we’ll have to take it for it’s worth.

5.       Atlantic Coast – This is going to be a down year for the ACC.  Duke and North Carolina look good as usual but the bottom of this conference could be awful.  That’s never a good thing for your Strength of Schedule (SOS).

6.       Atlantic 10 – This conference isn’t really a power conference but it’s no mid-major either.  Xavier and Temple are two excellent programs who will make some noise this year. The middle of the conference appears average so expecting four bids again may be a stretch.

7.      Pac 12 – New additions Utah and Colorado won’t help this year.  This conference has been plagued by mediocrity of late and I’m not sure it’ll be any different in 2012.  Arizona is overrated in my mind while other contenders Washington, UCLA, and Cal all have big time flaws. The Pac12 is helped by its solid second tier.

8.       Missouri Valley – With the supposed reemergence of Creighton, the MVC appears to gaining steam as the top mid-major.  Also worth watching are Wichita St., Indiana St., and UNI.  This conference is always fun to watch; it’s kind of like the Big 10’s little brother in terms of style.

9.       West Coast – This is Gonzaga’s year!  I doubt that to be true but all the previews I’ve read expect a big improvement from last season. St. Mary’s remains very good, but the team that pushes this conference into the top ten is BYU.  That’s a very nice trio.

10.   Mountain West – New Mexico St. and UNLV appear to be the front-runners this year. No BYU will hurt the RPI but Colorado St. is improving and San Diego St. will still be good. Two bids is a safe bet and three won’t be a surprise.