Predicting the Field 2012

When the Selection Committee puts together their field they first start by ranking teams on an S-curve from 1-68.  After that each team is placed into regions in attempt to give the higher seeded teams favorable courts to play on all the while keeping each region is fair.  Below is my S-curve ranking:

March 10th, 2012 Madness (updated)

The Buffaloes have found greener pastures in the Pac 12 - ask Nebraska how their
move to the BIG went. Will they finish their impressive run to the conference tournament
final today and secure an automatic bid?

This is the final weekend before the bracket is announced. I've done a comprehensive check of all the teams who hope to avoid the NIT and play for the national title.  Here are a few notes followed by how everything looks at 1:30 pm today.

• Texas' win over Iowa St. pushes them into the "Should be In" category.  Despite a 1-8 record vs. the top 25, they're 48 in RPI meaning the committee will likely select them as an at-large team.
• The lack of upsets in the mid-majors means the bubble remains large (or soft in you prefer ESPN's lingo) enough for multiple power conference bubble teams to qualify.  West Virginia and Seton Hall send their thanks.
• It looks like the Pac 12 will only get two bids this year. Cal is a lock and with Arizona and Colorado playing in the conference tournament, the winner will likely steal a bid and push Washington off the bubble.
• As much as I'd like to see Drexel (27-6) and Iona (25-7) in the tournament there's just a noticeable lack of good wins for both programs.  I can see Drexel squeaking in but Iona's loss in the second round if their conference tournament was probably a death blow.
• I forgot to include Long Beach St. in the bubble team section earlier.  They are definitely in the hunt for an at-large bid if they fail to win their championship game tonight. Win, however, and the point is moot.
• Kentucky's win today assured them of getting the number one seed in the Louisville region.  I don't care who they play, getting that kind of advantage in the first weekend's games makes them a lock for the Sweet 16.
• Xavier's big win over St. Louis should be enough to get them in.  They've got quality wins but were on the bubble thanks to losing five out of six games after their brawl with Cincinnati.
• By advancing to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan St. stays in the hunt for a number one seed.  I've got them #5 on the S-curve right now behind Kansas and just ahead of Missouri.  These three teams are so tightly bunched right now that their final game will determine how they're seeded.
• Ohio St.'s win over Michigan locks them up at a 2 seed.  Duke's loss means they may have fallen behind Ohio St. on the S-curve and if OSU wins tomorrow they'll definitely be ahead of the Blue Devils.
• Bubble teams everywhere let out a sigh of relief when Vanderbilt finished off Ole Miss today.  That's another potential bubble spot that remains open for an at-large team.
• Keep your eye on the Pac 12 tonight.  Whichever team wins is going dancing and the loser likely goes to the NIT.

Updated at 6:25pm.

Rooting Interests for Championship Week

It's the time of year where ESPN start's pimping the mid-majors because they have exclusive rights to their conference tournaments.  Most people that didn't attend one of these schools really don't care what's going on but if you're a fan of a bubble team you might want to check in every now and then to see what's going on. Every year more than one surprise team wins their respective conference tournament and shrinks the bubble. After this weekend we'll begin to officially count how many bubble spots there are and see who is in line to grab them.
I've listed each of the conference tournaments that will take place this week and shown how potential winners will affect the field.  I've also gone ahead and given my predictions for what it's worth.

America East

Regular Season Champ: Stony Brook

Potential At-large Bids: None

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Stony Brook deserves it and is the only potential representative who could skip the play-in game.

Who fans of bubble teams want: No interest

Who will win: Stony Brook went 14-2 in conference play and will pull it out.

Atlantic Sun

Regular Season Champ: Belmont

Potential At-large Bids: Belmont

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Belmont's not a sure thing to earn the respect of the committee so winning the conference tournament is the only guarantee the best team moves on.

Who fans of bubble teams want: Belmont since they are likely on the top of the bubble.
Who will win: Belmont

Big South

Regular Season Champ: NC Asheville

Potential At-large Bids: None

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: NC Asheville

Who fans of bubble teams want: No interest

Who will win: Campbell has a great draw from their point of view. They went 2-0 against Winthrop, their first round opponent, and beat #2 seed Coastal Carolina also. That would likely earn them a draw with NC Asheville where anything can happen.

Colonial
Regular Season Champ: Drexel

Potential At-large Bids: Drexel and maybe VCU

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Either George Mason or VCU depending on how confident you are that VCU can earn an at-large bid.

Who fans of bubble teams want: Drexel since they're the only sure team to earn a bid.

Who will win: VCU will end Drexel's 16 game winning streak in an ESPN Instant Classic.

 Horizon League

Regular Season Champ: Valparaiso

Potential At-large Bids: None

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Valparaiso or Cleveland St. since they're the two most talented teams.

Who fans of bubble teams want: I think Butler has a lot of fans now.

Who will win: Valpo has a double bye and home court throughout so that may give them just the edge they need.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Regular Season Champ: Iona

Potential At-large Bids: Iona

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Iona's probably in though they're not a sure thing especially with the way the bubble can move in the last week of the season, so Iona.

Who fans of bubble teams want: Definitely Iona.

Who will win: Iona gets it done with their exciting offense and even breaks 100 in their first game.

Missouri Valley Conference

Regular Season Champ: Wichita St.

Potential At-large Bids: Wichita St., Creighton

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Anyone but Wichita St. or Creighton to get another team in the field.

Who fans of bubble teams want: The Shockers and Jays have spots locked up so in order to preserve the bubble one of these two teams will need to win Arch Madness.

Who will win: I'm going to go out on a limb and say the winner of Missouri St. and Evansville takes out Wichita St. in the final.  Both of these teams played Creighton tough this season so picking an upset there isn't much of a stretch.

Northeast Conference

Regular Season Champ: Long Island

Potential At-large Bids: None, this is another lock for a 16 seed.

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Wagner's defense is good enough to give a top team some trouble which could cause some temporary excitement in the first round.

Who fans of bubble teams want: No interest

Who will win: Wagner shuts down LIU to earn the bid.

Ohio Valley

Regular Season Champ: Murray St.
Potential At-large Bids: Murray St.

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Tough call, but I think Murray St. since a championship would give them a 30-1 record prior to the Big Dance with a good shot at reaching the Sweet 16. 

Who fans of bubble teams want: Murray St. is arguably the best mid-major program this season so they're a lock.

Who will win: Murray St. will cruise through their conference tournament since the OVC isn't very good.

Patriot League

Regular Season Champ: Bucknell

Potential At-large Bids: None

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Remember when Bucknell upset Kansas a few years ago?

Who fans of bubble teams want: No interest

Who will win: Bucknell leads the nation in fewest offensive rebounds allowed and that's one of the ways to win tournaments: prevent second chances.

Southern League

Regular Season Champ: Davidson

Potential At-large Bids: None. Davidson's ship has sailed.

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Davidson is the only team who can bring down a giant.

Who fans of bubble teams want: No interest.

Who will win: I think Davdison gets it done but due to their conference's goofy bracket setup it won't be easy.

West Coast Conference

Regular Season Champ: St. Mary's ended Gonzaga's reign atop the WCC.

Potential At-large Bids: St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and probably BYU barring a silly loss.

Who fans of Mid-majors want to win: Loyola Marymount winning might give this conference four bids.

Who fans of Power Conferences want: St. Mary's or Gonzaga along with a BYU loss to Pepperdine or San Diego.

Who will win: Gonzaga appears to be playing their best ball now and recently ripped St. Mary's. Gonzaga's the pick.

Mid-major rankings: Ground Hog Day, 2012

There's been quite a shakeup in the Mid-major rankings since the last one came out.  It's nitty gritty time for a lot of these schools and the upcoming Bracketbusters could provide a last chance for statement wins.  Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow won't provide six more weeks to the college basketball season but it also shows that there's still time for teams to build their resumes.  Don't be surprised if a team towards the bottom of this list makes a move around conference tournament time.

St. Mary's has found success recruiting most of their players from Australia.
I wonder, does the ball go around the rim counter-clockwise down there too?

1. Creighton (21-2) – The Bluejays are on a roll and are the best mid-major team in the country right now.  There are still a couple of tricky conference games left but they host Wichita St. and will host Long Beach St. in the Bracketbuster.  
2. St. Mary's (21-2) – While we didn't know much about St. Mary's in the latest Power Rankings, we know plenty now.  They're 10-0 in the WCC and their two losses came at Denver (so-so), and to Baylor (forgiven).  
3. Murray St. (21-0) – Undefeated and untested in conference play, the Racers will host St. Mary's for their Bracketbuster.  If they win an undefeated season will be in their grasp.
4. Harvard (18-2) – The Crimson remain undefeated in the Ivy League though their loss to Fordham in January took a little shine off their resume.
5. Wichita St. (19-4) – Starting 10-2 in the Missouri Valley would get a little more publicity most years but this team still hasn't answered the number one question: can they beat anybody good?  They'll have to win their rematch with Creighton to prove it as their Bracketbuster matchup with Davidson isn't going to provide much help.
6. Gonzaga (17-3) – Gonzaga's a decent school and a good bet to make the dance but don't expect much once there.  Their best win is Xavier and they lost by 19 to St. Mary's.  They have won 12 of their last 13 though.
7. Middle Tennessee (20-3) – I never would've guessed this team would be so successful this season.  They thumped UCLA, split with Belmont, and played a hot Vanderbilt team tough.  They may not earn a good seed in March but they'll give whomever they play quite a game.
8. Long Beach St. (16-6) – Of their six losses five are to at-large teams. They've got wins over Pitt and Xavier so beating Creighton would be icing on the cake. They, too, are undefeated in conference play (Big West).
9. BYU (18-6) – BYU has won every game they're supposed to except one (Loyola) but they're lacking the signature win needed to give their bubble much credential.  With no Bracketbuster on the docket, and still two games with Gonzaga, BYU have little margin for error.
10. Davidson (16-5) – Their win over Kansas likely put them in the NCAA Tournament but they still need to finish strong to keep ahold of an at-large bid.  Wichita St. comes to town in a couple of weeks for another chance at a quality win.
11. VCU (19-5) – VCU lack the quality wins necessary for an at-large berth but they're in a three-way tie for first in the Colonial.  They'll play Northern Iowa for their bracket buster.
12. Cleveland St. (18-4) – The Horizon's most likely bet for representation in the NCAA Tournament, Cleveland St. has won 8 of their last 10 gets to play the two Chicago schools before  their date with Valpo.
13. Akron (15-7) – It looks as if this team is just hitting their stride. They've actually got a couple of decent wins putting them in position for a potential at-large bid if they finish strong.  They can't afford to lose to Oral Roberts in the Bracketbuster.

Just missed: Iona, Belmont, Drexel

Conference Power Rankings: Missouri Valley

The Missouri Valley is a conference I enjoy following and this was before I attended one of the schools.  I've always liked the mid-majors but this is a conference whose style is similar to that of the Big Ten.  The tempo is slower than most, defense is emphasized, and rebounding and fundamentals are a must.  Think of it as the Big Ten's little brother.  Though it's been a few seasons since the MVC has made an impact in March, I believe the conference is turning the corner.  This is exemplified by the top two teams Creighton and Wichita St.  If they have success in the NCAA Tournament it's likely the conference will ride the effect for several years much like the Colonial did after George Mason's great run from 2006.

Father and son have been a lethal combination for the 
 Blue Jays this season. Winning Coach and Player of  the Year honors
may be just the beginning of this team's post-season success. 

1. Creighton 18-2 (8-1) - The Blue Jays avenged their only conference loss last week with a one point victory over Missouri St.  If they can defeat Wichita St. in the rematch there will be no doubt who the best team in the conference is.  Winning the conference title will also be a big help to Doug McDermott's All American chances.
2. Wichita St. 17-3 (8-1) - The Shockers' three losses this season have come to Alabama, Temple, and Creighton.  While it's a bit worrisome they haven't defeated any of the ranked teams they've played, they're close to a lock for an NCAA berth.  The rematch with Creighton takes place in Omaha on Feb 11th.
3. Missouri St. 12-9 (5-4) - To me this team has been a bit disappointing.  Losing to Creighton and Wichita St. is fine but the two home losses to Evansville and Illinois St. sting.  They'll have to win the conference tournament to earn the MVC a third NCAA bid.
4. Drake 12-8 (5-4) - They're 0-4 against Creighton, Missouri St., and UNI and haven't even played Wichita St. yet.  Basically they're beating up on the bottom of the conference which is nice but getting a couple of wins against the top teams would go a long way in building their NIT resume.
5. Evansville 10-9 (5-4) - Currently riding a three game winning streak, junior Colt Ryan has emerged as one of the conference's top players highlighted by his 39 points against Bradley.
6. Northern Iowa 14-7 (4-5) - After playing great in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Panthers have been mediocre during the regular season. They have a nice one point win over Missouri St. but also lost to Bradley.  They have a good enough non-con profile that they could have been a bubble team but it's too late for that now unless they go undefeated the rest of the way.
7. Illinois St. 12-8 (4-5) - After starting off 3-1 in conference play, the Redbirds have gone 1-4 with their only win coming against Indiana St.  While ISU is + 14 in turnovers in their last four losses, they're only forcing 11 a game.  That's not enough when you're allowing opponents to make 46% of their two point shots.
8. Southern Illinois 6-14 (3-6) - SIU opponents shoot free throws on 52% of their field goal attempts. That is an atrocious number that I'm willing to bet ranks in the bottom ten in the nation.  They also shoot 28% from three while allowing opponents to shoot 36%.  In case you're not getting the hint, this team is bad - worse than their record suggests.
9. Indiana St. 11-7 (2-7) - What happened to this team? Their poor conference record is a result of the odd combination of not defending the three and not getting offensive rebounds.  I expected much more from this squad.
10. Bradley 6-15 (1-8) - Their one win is perhaps the biggest surprise of the conference season thus far (defeated NIU 78-67).  They could squeak out a couple of more before the season ends but this team is pretty much entrenched in last place.

NCAA Basketball: Mid-Major Conference Predictions

We've gotten some decent traffic on the site when putting a new post up about mid-majors.  As a follow up to yesterday's post discussing my conference predictions and NCAA Tournament predictions, I've construed a similar post for the most successful mid-majors.  Take a look below:

Colonial Athletic Association

Conference Champ: VCU

Other contenders: George Mason, Georgia St., Old Dominion, Drexel

Multiple Bids?: 50%

We all remember what VCU did last season and though they lost several starters they appear to be the best team.  Georgia St. and George Mason are also right there and it's anybody's guess who wins the league. Based on the success of this conference in past NCAA Tournaments I could see a bubble team getting the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday.

Horizon League

Conference Champ: Cleveland St.

Other contenders: Milwaukee, Butler, Valparaiso.

Multiple Bids?: 25%

Cleveland St's loss to South Florida may prevent them from earning an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament.  Still, they've looked the best in the early going and remain my pick to win their league.  Milwaukee looks to be their biggest challenger but I refuse to discount Butler after their success the last two seasons.  Valpo may be a stretch but have already beaten Butler to start the conference season.

Mid-Major Rankings: December 2011

It’s time for another Mid-major Power Ranking!  I’ve done a lot of thinking and have decided to overhaul the teams eligible.  There is no clear-cut definition of a mid-major in college basketball.  Obviously the Big Six are excluded (Big East, Big Ten, Big12, SEC, ACC, Pac12) but what about leagues such as the Mountain West which routinely sends multiple schools to the NCAA Tournament and has teams ranked all year long?  

I’ve decided that mid-majors should be classified as:

• Leagues that do not have Division I football and
• Leagues that hope - not expect - to have a school selected as an at-large bid.

For instance, even though the Missouri Valley Conference is at this juncture are the best mid-major conference, they do not have DI football and will therefore be included.  The Atlantic 10 does not have Division I football (the schools that do join another conference such as Temple with the MAC) but routinely expect multiple schools to participate in the NCAA Tournament and are thereby excluded.  Thus, the precedent is set and these are my rankings: