2012 MLB Preview: NL Central

The final division I'm previewing is the National League Central.  This division has seen four different winners in the past four seasons and the last team to repeat as division winner was Chicago who did it in 2007 and 2008.  Three teams haven't finished with a winning record in the same season since 2008 when four teams did it (Cubs, Mil, Hou, Cards).  At first glance this season seems to have three good teams and three not so good teams.  The Cardinals are fresh off a World Series Championship and though they lost the best player in baseball, still have great pitching and a talented offense.  The Brewers lost a star of their own but look to get bounce back years from several players to go along with their own three-headed monster in the rotation.  Cincinnati has the best player in the division and seems poised to make a jump back into the playoffs.  The bottom three teams are a different story. The Pirates flirted with .500 for three and a half months last year before falling apart.  The Cubs are rebuilding and don't expect to contend but are still better than Houston.  Houston had their worst season in franchise history last year and sadly things don't look any better.  With six teams this division is unique; the division won't necessarily be won by who has the best record against the contenders but instead by who has the most success against the Pirates and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs

2011 Record: 71-91

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $88.2 million
Highest Paid Player: Alfonso Soriano - $18 million
Best Player: Starlin Castro led the league with 207 hits last season. I don't think this will be the last time that happens.
Best Pitcher: Even though Dempster's had more success, Matt Garza is the best pitcher on the staff. Last season he struck out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings.  He could break out this year.
Say Hello To: David DeJesus OF, Chris Volstad SP, Anthony Rizzo 1B, Casey Weathers RP, Ian Stewart 3B, Andy Sonnanstine P, Joe Mather OF, Paul Maholm SP
Wave Goodbye: Carlos Zambrano SP (Mia), Carlos Pena 1B (TB), Aramis Ramirez 3B (Mil), John Grabow RP (LA), Ramon Ortiz RP (SF), Tyler Colvin OF (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Theo bring home a championship?  That's the goal, but it's not going to happen this year. The Cubs minor league system is exhausted preventing them from making improvements to the major league club and they're cutting back on payroll so no marquee free agents will be added. Let's talk again in two years.

2. Is Alfonso Soriano just dead weight? When the Cubs signed Soriano in 2007 he was coming off a 46 home run season.  Since then he's hit 30 homers just once and is averaging 26 homers per year as a Cub.  Never a walker, his OBP dipped to new lows last season (.289) meaning he's now a liability in the lineup. The Cubs will have to pay anyone to take him at this point.

3. Can Jeff Samardzija be successful as a starting pitcher?  Scouting reports indicate Jeff should stick to the pen but he wants to start and the Cubs aren't going anywhere this season so why not give him a try?  Velocity isn't Samardzija's issue, it's movement or rather, lack of movement. With a straight fastball and a flat breaking pitch, any time Samardzija's control isn't pinpoint he runs the risk of getting hit hard. 

Expectations: It's going to be a long year on the Northside.  The Cubs are lucky they're in the same division as Houston or they'd likely finish with the worst record in the National League.

With the loss of Aramis Ramirez and the steady decline of
Soriano, Marlon Byrd is now the second best Cub.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. DeJesus RF
2. Barney 2B
3. Castro SS
4. Soriano LF
5. Stewart 3B
6. Baker 1B
7. Byrd CF
8. Soto C

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Dempster
2. Garza
3. Samardzija
4. Volstad
5. Maholm

CL: Marmol

2011 MLB Predictions: NL Central

Unimpressed with his Matrix moves, Chapman fires a fastball at Keanu's head.

It wasn't until the funeral when he learned it's just a movie.

The National League Central has been the home to mediocrity in recent seasons.  In each of the past two seasons a whopping 91 wins has won the division while four teams failed to win at least half their games. I'm not certain that will continue this season but I am certain the bottom two teams in this division will challenge each other for the first pick in next year's amateur draft.

Let's get to it:

Milwaukee Brewers
Best Player: Prince Fielder
Best Pitcher: Zack Greinke 
Biggest off-season move:  Trading for Zack Greinke was the type of "all-in" move fans get excited about. This may be the team's best chance for a while.
Biggest off-season loss: By trading Alcides Escobar, the Brewers are now stuck with Yunieksy Betancourt at SS.
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Prince Fielder be re-signed? It seems unlikely the Brewers will be able to retain their best player after this season so the team needs to win it all.
2. Will Zack Greinke rebound? A goofy injury suffered while playing pick-up basketball will keep Greinke sidelined for a bit, but Greinke should be great once he makes it back.
3. Can the bullpen hold enough leads? This is not a good 'pen but when that's your biggest weakness it's not a bad one to have.
Expectations: This team is assembled to make the playoffs and with Fielder and Braun they should make some noise once they get there.
Opening day lineup:
1. Weeks 2B
2. Gomez CF
3. Braun LF
4. Fielder 1B
5. McGehee 3B
6. Kotsay RF
7. Betancourt SS
8. Nieves C
SP Yovani Gallardo

Season Preview: Chicago Cubs

2008 Record: 97-64  .602

Run differential: +184 (1^st)

2008 payroll: $118,345,833

Last season the Cubs had the best record in the NL and the best run differential in the majors on their way to breezing to the NL Central crown.  But their Cubbieness came out of hiding in October as the Dodgers sent them home by sweeping them in the first round of the playoffs.  As disappointing an ending like that is, the Cubs should be confident going into the 2009 season.

There were several changes made to the roster during the offseason.  Kerry Wood was let go in free agency so the younger and more talented Carlos Marmol close games, Jason Marquis was sent packing to Colorado, and Mark DeRosa was traded to Cleveland for some middling minor league pitchers.  These moves allowed the Cubs to sign right fielder Milton Bradley who immediately brings a new intensity to the team.  DeRosa’s positional flexibility will be missed but he had what is most likely to be his career season offensively last year.  Health issues have always been a problem for Bradley but hitting has not.  Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino and Kevin Gregg were acquired in separate deals to provide a link from one of the National League’s best starting staffs to Marmol.

The new lineup really isn’t much different than last seasons.  Disappointing free agent Kosuke Fukudome will be moved to center where he will platoon with Reed Johnson.  While neither of these guys should be expected to excel defensively, this platoon should maximize their offensive strengths as they replace Jim Edmonds’s torrid half season in Wrigley.  The expected Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles platoon at second base should allow the Cubs to get the most offense out of this position of any team in the division. 

If the Cubs can get 140 innings out of Rich Harden--and that is definitely a big if--this team should have no problem retaining their crown as division champs.  And as we see each year, once you make the playoffs anything can happen.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Geovany Soto	$.401M	Drafted 11th rd 2001
C	Paul Bako	$.725M	Signed as FA 1/30/09
1b	Derrek Lee	$13 M	Acquired in trade w/ Fla 11/03. Resigned 4/06
2b	Mike Fontenot	$.405M	Drafted 21st rd 1999
3b	Aramis Ramirez	$15.65 M	Acquired in trade w/ Pit 7/03. Resigned 11/06
SS	Ryan Theriot	$.5 M	Drafted 3rd rd 2001
LF	Alfonso Soriano	$13 M	Signed as FA 11/06
CF	Reed Johnson	$3 M	Signed as FA 3/25/08
RF	Milton Bradley	$5 M	Signed as FA 1/6/09
Inf	Aaron Miles	$2.2 M	Signed as FA 12/31/08
Of	Kosuke Fukudome	$11.5 M	Signed as FA from Japan 12/07
Of	Joey Gathright	$.8 M	Signed as FA 12/16/08
UT	Micah Hoffpauir	$.39 M	Drafted 13th rd 2002
SP	Carlos Zambrano	$17.75 M	Signed as FA 1/15/09
SP	Ryan Dempster	$8 M	Signed as FA 1/21/04. Resigned 11/08
SP	Ted Lilly	$12 M	Signed as FA 12/06
SP	Rich Harden	$7 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 7/8/08
SP	Sean Marshall	$.327M	Drafted 6th rd 2003
Cl	Carlos Marmol	$.575M	Signed as amateur FA from D.R. 1999
SU	Kevin Gregg	$4.2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Fla 11/13/08
RP	Luis Vizcaino	$3.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Col 1/6/09
RP	Chad Gaudin	$2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 7/8/08
RP	Aaron Heilman	$1.63 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 1/20/09
RP	Neal Cotts	$1.1 M	Acquired in trade w/ ChA 11/06.
RP	Angel Guzman	$.401M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 1999

Payroll obligations to former players: Jason Marquis

Say hello to: Kevin Gregg, Joey Gathright, Aaron Miles, Luis Vizcaino, Milton Bradley, Paul Bako, Aaron Heilman

Wave goodbye: Kerry Wood, Bobby Howry, Mark DeRosa, Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds

Rookies: Jeff Samardzija

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Corey Koskie, So Taguchi, Mike Stanton, Chad Fox

Potential breakout: Micah Hoffpauir

Welcome to Earth: I don’t see Milton Bradley playing 140 games again

Likely to rebound: Kosuke? I’m not sure anyone will really have a better season but if I had to pick someone I’d pick Fukudome.

Strengths: The Cubs have one of the league’s top offenses and rotations to go with an intelligent manager.

Weaknesses: Several guys with injury issues and very few left handed hitters.

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

SS Theriot R  .307/.387/.359  1, 22  .267

LF Soriano R  .280/.344/.532  29, 19  .291

RF Bradley B .321/.436/.563  22, 5  .337

3B Ramirez R  .289/.380/.518  27, 2 .300

C  Soto R  .285/.364/.504  23, 0  .291

1B Lee R .291/.361/.462  20, 8  .282

2B Fontenot L/Miles B  .305/270

CF Johnson R/Fukudome L  .270/.263

Prediction: 1^st place. NL Champs 

Cubs get Heilman

Earlier this week the Cubs and Mariners hooked up in another trade in which Seattle received a couple of guys who are out of options (they cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers) for Aaron Heilman.  Heilman has already been traded once this offseason as a piece in the JJ Putz trade.

Seattle gets a utility infielder in Ronny Cedeño who was passed by two other similar players in Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot in Chicago.  I personally feel he was given a sort of raw deal by the Cubs but that's an argument for another day.  What is evident is he has skills that offer an upgrade to what the Mariners are currently running out there in Yuniesky Betancourt (offense) and José Lopez (defense), the guys he'll be competing against in spring training.  

Garrett Olson is a guy who's really taken his lumps in the majors but is also worth taking a chance on.  Maybe he's learned how to pitch?  Going from a terrible defensive ball club in a hitters park to one that appears to be much improved defensively and in an extreme pitcher's park should give him a little more confidence.

These are the types of deals teams like Seattle need to make in order to find a core of players upon which they can build their next playoff run.

In losing Cedeño Chicago isn't really losing too much in that he was only a utility guy for them. The bigger question is who is replacing him?  With DeRosa being traded, second base appears to be a platoon situation between Fontenot and Aaron Miles.  It's a reach to think either of them would a decent defensive shortstop though.  It's doubtful the Cubs are satisfied with this alignment so picking up a decent defensive shortstop for the stretch run already seems likely (Andres Blanco is not the answer either).  

Heilman is an above average reliever who could really solidify their pen in the late innings.  However there's already rumblings about the Cubs letting him compete with Sean Marshall and Chad Gaudin for the fifth starter's role.  In November I said this about Heilman starting:

AHeilman is a disgruntled reliever who told the Mets to start him or trade him.  Well, Aaron, you got your wish.  If used as a starter it will be a disaster since he only has two decent pitches and a pretty significant platoon split.

Lucky for him and Cubs fans I don't think management is serious about this offer.  Granted we are talking about a fifth starter but 2 good innings of Heilman will be more important to the Cubs than 5 mediocre ones.

What this trade boils down to is the Clubs clearing out a roster space by trading two guys who are out of options and Seattle taking on those guys hoping to capitalize on their upside.

The time for Pie is now

Anytime is a good time for Pie

--Fabienne from Pulp Fiction

Jim Hendry obviously disagrees with the above quote.  By shipping him to Baltimore for Garrett Olsen, the Cubs are basically getting another team's failed prospect.

I am a big supporter of Pie's.  I never understood why the Cubs didn't give him more of an opportunity.  Pie plays great defense, is a good runner, and has shown some pop in the minors.  The Cubs named him their everyday center fielder last season but pulled the plug after 83 at bats.  What kind of chance is that?  

In order to replace him, the Cubs signed Jim Edmonds in a move that worked out better than anyone could have imagined.  They won't be so lucky this year.  This team has no center fielder. Reed Johnson is not a center fielder and Fukudome is already in Lou's doghouse.  That's right, the Cubs will probably wish they still had Pie on the roster.

In Baltimore Pie will be moved to left field (a definite waste of his defensive value) since they already have a budding superstar in Adam Jones entrenched in the middle.  He is going to a team that will not give up on him after 83 at bats.  Now, I'm not predicting Pie will be an all-star and it's pretty widely accepted that he's brutal against lefties, but a .270/.330/.465 line isn't out of the question.  Add in gold glove caliber defense and 20+ steals and you have yourself a guy who could get a team like the Cubs over the hump.  Oh yeah, I forgot to mention he turns 24 in February.

The Cubs traded away a guy with whom they should  have been patient.  Instead he goes to Baltimore to help form the youngest outfield in the majors with Nick Markakis (25) and Jones (23) but one that now might have the most upside.  Baltimore is building a team the right way whereas the Cubs' window is closing fast.

Game on: Milton Bradley to Cubs

Cubs fans, be happy.  This is a good thing.

Sure there are some huge red flags:

• He has played 100 games only three times (2003, 2004, 2008) and 130 games only once
  
• This will be his 7th organization in his 9 year career.  He has been suspended while with the Dodgers and Padres and his confrontations with Eric Wedge and Billy Beane earned him a ticket out of town.
• His latest major injury (a torn ACL while arguing with an umpire in 2007) has severely hindered his range in the outfield rendering him incapable of playing a decent center.  Now he is in right field.
• This is his first multi-year contract drawing speculation that he won't play hard since he finally got his money.

This is what I like:

• Bradley led the American League in OBP & OPS last season.
• Bradley is a switch hitter who has a career .801 OPS vs RHP--a perfect fit for a right-handed dominated team.
• Since becoming a regular in 2003,  Bradley's line reads .295/.391/.488 and shows no signs of slowing down.
• He is a year removed from his knee injury which should allow him to play competent defense in Wrigley's small outfield.
• Bradley brings a fire that is unmatched by any of his Cub teammates.  No more DLee in the headlights looks in October.

I believe the pros outweigh the cons in this situation.  Yes, Bradley will inevitably be injured and he'll inevitably pick a fight with Fontenot and Theriot for having silent a silent 't' in their name, but when this happens that's why Kosuke is earning his megabucks, right?  I believe Bradley will prevent this team from sleepwalking through the NLDS and push them into the NLCS.  Good job, Jim Hendry.

Cubs Part Ways with Wood

The Kerry Wood era and his impending departure can best be described amongst Cubs fans as the loss of an icon crossed with a feeling of good riddance. This duel fan opinion of the Texas right-hander is due to the fact that when Wood burst on to the MLB scene with his 20K performance against Houston in the spring of '98, a complete disbelief ushered throughout Cubdom. Could a pitcher of this immense talent really be residing on the north side? Is the second coming of Roger Clemens sporting blue pinstripes? By announcing his presence with such grandiose fireworks, Wood became an immediate obsession. I remember coming home from school and watching in awe as this guy dominated like no Cub before. Unfortunately, this fireworks display would later be accompanied by a mid-season trip to the disabled list where he would return to no avail in an NLDS loss to the Braves.
Wood's flash of brilliance coupled with an immediate health breakdown would eventually become his calling card. The next ten years would display Wood as having one of the best opponent batting averages mixed with gratuitous stays on the disabled list. I feel that any other team would have quickly diagnosed the man as incapable of maintaining his health for a full season (long believed his mechanics were the culprit) and shipped off for prospects. Though, the trade or release never occurred, and year after year Cubdom hoped he would put it together and chase down the pennant.
Hope is the very reason Wood even materialized into iconic status amongst Cubs fans. The decades of futility on the north side made hope the only option for maintaining the ability to continue to follow this sad sack franchise. And Wood immediately became the flagship of this wave of hopeful emotion. It didn't hurt that his arrival also coincided with a Cub renaissance where the teams popularity and wealth would exponentially grow. His injuries would be hailed has as disastrous, but nowhere was there a vitriol lashing among the fans towards Wood, just support and hope that next year he would stay healthy and produce.
In 2003 it seemed that hope and patience would finally bare fruit with Wood's pitching being instrumental in securing the central division title. He added to his season success with two awesome outings in the NLDS to propel the team towards capturing the NL pennant. This success would all be for not as Wood was unable to stem the Marlin tide in Game 7 of the NLCS where he allowed over five runs in 4 innings. The next 2 1/2 years would be marred in injury with an abandoning of being a starting pitcher and adopting a reliever role.
So, with this up and down play from Kerry Wood for the last decade, he has been rewarded with no contract offer from the Cubs for 2009? The Cub fan in me boils with anger for the fact that Wood is likable, enjoyed Cubdom and all its offerings, and left everything on the field. Still, the business side of my baseball acumen says, "let this guy go, he's a torn rotator cuff waiting to happen." Wood's loyalty can't be ignored, nor his talent. The guy was an all-star reliever in 2008! I see how Carlos Marmol has been groomed as the closer of the future, but its not like the Cubs lack the funds to resign Wood as Marmol's setup man. I find Philadelphia's playoff success as more reason to stack your bullpen. Fine, he can gain more salary from rival teams, but Marmol is still under contract.
Also, one fact remains, does Marmol even have the makeup to conquer the intense challenge of closing baseball games? Is Kevin Gregg now our emergency closer if Marmol loses confidence? These questions could be quickly put to bed if Wood was resigned. A valuable insurance tool in my opinion, especially for a team whose window of winning it all is quickly shutting. Therefore, is Wood a victim of increased winning expectations on Clark & Addison? I say no, for its him (Wood) that created this new bar of success. Ten years ago, just having a competitive team would have been outstanding, now a NLDS loss is met with complete disgust from the fans and media.
In the end, I hope both sides are met with positive outcomes. I do not want to see Kerry Wood back under the knife, nor do I need to see my beloved Cubs losing 90 games because of a collapsing bullpen in 2009.