Predicting the Field 2012

When the Selection Committee puts together their field they first start by ranking teams on an S-curve from 1-68.  After that each team is placed into regions in attempt to give the higher seeded teams favorable courts to play on all the while keeping each region is fair.  Below is my S-curve ranking:

2011 MLB Predictions: Awards

Now that I've completed my divisional previews I suppose it's time to get down to the nitty gritty.  Believe me when I say I'm glad I finished the previews.  By the time I'd gotten to the National League Central I was pooped.  Then I was rewarded by doing write-ups for Pittsburgh and Houston.  At least the Pirates have a brightening future.
Anyway, this post will be dedicated to my award winners and due to reader request I will also put down my predicted records for each team.  First, the records:

AL East				NL East
Boston	98	64		Philadelphia	97	65
New York	90	72		Atlanta	92	70
Tampa	84	78		New York	81	81
Toronto	78	84		Washington	73	89
Baltimore	73	89		Florida	73	89
AL Central				NL Central
Chicago	87	75		Milwaukee	91	71
Detroit	83	79		Cincinnati	88	74
Minnesota	80	82		St. Louis	83	79
Cleveland	79	83		Chicago	77	85
Kansas City	70	92		Pittsburgh	68	94
				Houston	61	101
AL West				NL West
Texas	94	68		Colorado	93	69
Oakland	90	72		San Fran	88	74
Los Angeles	83	79		Los Angeles	80	82
Seattle	58	104		San Diego	70	92
				Arizona	68	94

Putting that table in was a huge pain in the butt.  As you can see no surprises in the division winners unless you think Milwaukee is a big underdog.  My biggest surprise is picking Oakland to win the AL Wild Card. If this holds true to form this is how I think the playoffs will go:
Boston over Oakland                   Milwaukee over Philadelphia
Texas over Chicago                     Colorado over Atlanta
Boston over Texas                        Milwaukee over Colorado

Boston over Milwaukee (hey, I can dream, right?)

Now your Award winners:
AL MVP                                     NL MVP
1. Adrian Gonzalez                     1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Robinson Cano                       2. Albert Pujols
3. Miguel Cabrera                       3. David Wright

AL Cy Young                              NL Cy Young
1. Brett Anderson                        1. Tim Lincecum
2. CC Sabathia                            2. Josh Johnson
3. Neftali Feliz                            3. Tommy Hanson

AL Rookie                                  NL Rookie
1. Jeremy Hellickson SP (TB)    1. Craig Kimbrel RP (Atl)
2. J.P. Arencibia C (Tor)             2. Freddie Freeman 1B (Atl)
3. Dustin Ackley 2B (Sea)         3. Brandon Beachy SP (Atl)

Good thing I'm not a betting man.

2011 MLB Predictions: NL Central

Unimpressed with his Matrix moves, Chapman fires a fastball at Keanu's head.

It wasn't until the funeral when he learned it's just a movie.

The National League Central has been the home to mediocrity in recent seasons.  In each of the past two seasons a whopping 91 wins has won the division while four teams failed to win at least half their games. I'm not certain that will continue this season but I am certain the bottom two teams in this division will challenge each other for the first pick in next year's amateur draft.

Let's get to it:

Milwaukee Brewers
Best Player: Prince Fielder
Best Pitcher: Zack Greinke 
Biggest off-season move:  Trading for Zack Greinke was the type of "all-in" move fans get excited about. This may be the team's best chance for a while.
Biggest off-season loss: By trading Alcides Escobar, the Brewers are now stuck with Yunieksy Betancourt at SS.
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Prince Fielder be re-signed? It seems unlikely the Brewers will be able to retain their best player after this season so the team needs to win it all.
2. Will Zack Greinke rebound? A goofy injury suffered while playing pick-up basketball will keep Greinke sidelined for a bit, but Greinke should be great once he makes it back.
3. Can the bullpen hold enough leads? This is not a good 'pen but when that's your biggest weakness it's not a bad one to have.
Expectations: This team is assembled to make the playoffs and with Fielder and Braun they should make some noise once they get there.
Opening day lineup:
1. Weeks 2B
2. Gomez CF
3. Braun LF
4. Fielder 1B
5. McGehee 3B
6. Kotsay RF
7. Betancourt SS
8. Nieves C
SP Yovani Gallardo

2011 MLB Predictions: AL West

Hamilton looks up after attempting to set the record for highest infield pop-fly.

Texas Rangers
Best Player: Josh Hamilton was last year's MVP.  I think it's safe to say he's the best player on the team.
Best Pitcher: Neftali Feliz. Another team whose best pitcher is a reliever. They toyed with making him a starter in spring training but decided not to fix what's not broken.
Biggest off-season move:  Tired of Michael Young's "defense" in the infield, the Rangers signed Adrian Beltre and his gold glove to man the hot corner.  Young is now the team's utility player and DH.
Biggest off-season loss: When Cliff Lee bolted for Philly, the Rangers lost their only stud starter.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can the rotation hold up well enough for the Rangers to repeat as division champs?  As I stated earlier, Cliff Lee was a big game pitcher for this team.  They hope CJ Wilson wasn't a flash in the pan and that Derek Holland and Scott Feldman can continue to improve.
2. Will Josh Hamilton stay healthy enough to play a full season?  We already know the answer to this question is no as Hamilton broke his arm this week.  Hamilton's only managed to play 135 games one time in his career.
3. Will Michael Young be happy in his new role? I doubt he is but will he keep his mouth shut and produce enough to be around when Texas plays in October? He already voiced his displeasure in the off-season about being replaced but the guy needs to look in the mirror and see he's not the player he was even three seasons ago.
Expectations: Texas' offense should finish in the top three in runs scored in the American League. The bullpen will be decent enough as long as Feliz is used as needed, but the major question is with the starters. I imagine they'll do just fine as Texas makes it back to the playoffs and possibly the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Kinsler 2B
2. Andrus SS
3. Hamilton LF
4. Beltre 3B
5. Young DH
6. Cruz RF
7. Napoli 1B
8. Torrealba C
9. Borbon CF
SP CJ Wilson

2011 NCAA Predictions revisited

Before conference play began I took a gander (here and here) at who I thought would win each conference regular season and other teams I thought had a shot for the NCAA tournament.  This is where I look back and see how smart (or dumb) I was.

ACC
Conference Champ: North Carolina (defeated Duke on the last day to win the title)
Predicted Champ: Duke (conference tournament champ)
NCAA Teams: 4
Biggest miss: Maryland. Maryland played well according to their rate stats but it didn't show up in the win column as they only went 7-9 in conference play.

Atlantic 10
Conference Champ: Xavier
Predicted Champ: Richmond (although they did win the conference tournament)
NCAA Teams: 3
Biggest miss: St. Louis. Last season St. Louis rallied late and made a push for the NCAAs. I thought Rick Majerus could make the jump with those late season improvements. I was wrong.

2010 MLB predictions

Despite my best efforts, I was unable to complete a team capsule for each team prior to the start of the season.  I'll continue to do team capsules when I have time although they will be abbreviated versions now that the season is upon us.  Instead of waiting until mid May for my predictions, I'll give them now.

Division winners:
AL East - Yankees
AL Central - Twins
AL West - Rangers
Wild Card - Rays

NL East - Phillies
NL Central - Cardinals
NL West - Rockies
Wild Card - Braves

World Series - Yankees over Rockies

AL MVP - Mark Teixeira.  Runners up: Evan Longoria, Grady Sizemore, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP - Albert Pujols. Runners up: Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Matt Holliday

AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez. Runners up: CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay. Runners up: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Johan Santana

AL Top Rookies - Brian Matusz, Scott Sizemore, Carlos Santana
NL Top Rookies - Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Alcides Escobar

AL Breakout Player - Adam Jones
NL Breakout Player - Colby Rasmus

AL Breakout Pitcher - Gavin Floyd or Rick Porcello
NL Breakout Pitcher - Mat Latos