2012 MLB Preview: Predictions

It's a little late but I've decided to publish my preseason predictions anyway.

American League
East
New York	96	66	Have a solid rotation to match formidable offense
Tampa Bay	92	70	Maybe the best rotation in baseball
Boston	87	75	Lack of depth will cost them
Toronto	85	77	Still building but no playoffs in this division
Baltimore	68	94	Future is bright but rotation is worst in AL
Central
Detroit	91	71	Will lead the league in runs scored, errors
Cleveland	80	82	Need one more starter to be a factor
Chicago	77	85	Rios, Dunn rebound but Peavy, bullpen falter
Kansas City	76	86	Still waiting on young pitching to make impact
Minnesota	62	100	Questions about Mauer, Morneau, Baker linger
West
Texas	95	67	Most well rounded team in AL
LAA	89	73	Still have problems at LF, 3B, C
Seattle	73	89	Back end of rotation no match for AL offenses
Oakland	70	92	Cespedes and Weeks are good but not enough
National League
East
Atlanta	87	75	Heyward bounceback, trade of Lowe is enough
Philadelphia	86	76	Injuries to Howard, Utley hold team back
Miami	84	78	Poor outfield defense really hurts in new park
Washington	82	80	Too many questions on offense
New York	75	87	Not as bad as many expected
Central
Milwaukee	88	74	Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum combine for 54 wins
Cincinnati	87	75	Votto, Bruce lead league in teammate HR
St. Louis	84	78	Berkman, Beltran not as good as 2011
Pittsburgh	76	86	Deadline deals prevent team from reaching .500
Chicago	69	93	Theo's first year will be his worst
Houston	50	112	Have questions everywhere except 2B, LF
West
San Francisco	91	71	Great pitching and good offense takes division
Arizona	90	72	Upton, Young become top NL outfield duo
Colorado	78	84	Tulo accumulates more WAR than any 2 'mates
Los Angeles	77	85	Disgruntled Ethier, Kemp regression hurt team
San Diego	75	87	Hang tough thanks to home field advantage

2012 MLB Preview: NL Central

The final division I'm previewing is the National League Central.  This division has seen four different winners in the past four seasons and the last team to repeat as division winner was Chicago who did it in 2007 and 2008.  Three teams haven't finished with a winning record in the same season since 2008 when four teams did it (Cubs, Mil, Hou, Cards).  At first glance this season seems to have three good teams and three not so good teams.  The Cardinals are fresh off a World Series Championship and though they lost the best player in baseball, still have great pitching and a talented offense.  The Brewers lost a star of their own but look to get bounce back years from several players to go along with their own three-headed monster in the rotation.  Cincinnati has the best player in the division and seems poised to make a jump back into the playoffs.  The bottom three teams are a different story. The Pirates flirted with .500 for three and a half months last year before falling apart.  The Cubs are rebuilding and don't expect to contend but are still better than Houston.  Houston had their worst season in franchise history last year and sadly things don't look any better.  With six teams this division is unique; the division won't necessarily be won by who has the best record against the contenders but instead by who has the most success against the Pirates and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs

2011 Record: 71-91

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $88.2 million
Highest Paid Player: Alfonso Soriano - $18 million
Best Player: Starlin Castro led the league with 207 hits last season. I don't think this will be the last time that happens.
Best Pitcher: Even though Dempster's had more success, Matt Garza is the best pitcher on the staff. Last season he struck out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings.  He could break out this year.
Say Hello To: David DeJesus OF, Chris Volstad SP, Anthony Rizzo 1B, Casey Weathers RP, Ian Stewart 3B, Andy Sonnanstine P, Joe Mather OF, Paul Maholm SP
Wave Goodbye: Carlos Zambrano SP (Mia), Carlos Pena 1B (TB), Aramis Ramirez 3B (Mil), John Grabow RP (LA), Ramon Ortiz RP (SF), Tyler Colvin OF (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Theo bring home a championship?  That's the goal, but it's not going to happen this year. The Cubs minor league system is exhausted preventing them from making improvements to the major league club and they're cutting back on payroll so no marquee free agents will be added. Let's talk again in two years.

2. Is Alfonso Soriano just dead weight? When the Cubs signed Soriano in 2007 he was coming off a 46 home run season.  Since then he's hit 30 homers just once and is averaging 26 homers per year as a Cub.  Never a walker, his OBP dipped to new lows last season (.289) meaning he's now a liability in the lineup. The Cubs will have to pay anyone to take him at this point.

3. Can Jeff Samardzija be successful as a starting pitcher?  Scouting reports indicate Jeff should stick to the pen but he wants to start and the Cubs aren't going anywhere this season so why not give him a try?  Velocity isn't Samardzija's issue, it's movement or rather, lack of movement. With a straight fastball and a flat breaking pitch, any time Samardzija's control isn't pinpoint he runs the risk of getting hit hard. 

Expectations: It's going to be a long year on the Northside.  The Cubs are lucky they're in the same division as Houston or they'd likely finish with the worst record in the National League.

With the loss of Aramis Ramirez and the steady decline of
Soriano, Marlon Byrd is now the second best Cub.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. DeJesus RF
2. Barney 2B
3. Castro SS
4. Soriano LF
5. Stewart 3B
6. Baker 1B
7. Byrd CF
8. Soto C

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Dempster
2. Garza
3. Samardzija
4. Volstad
5. Maholm

CL: Marmol

2012 MLB Preview: AL Central

After emerging as the "mystery team" in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, the Detroit Tigers now have their sights set on more than just repeating as division champs.  The core of their team already included one of the best positional players in Miguel Cabrera and last year's American League MVP Justin Verlander.  With Prince on board the team hopes they'll be contenders for the next several years. The rest of the division will be fighting for seconds as all of them have serious concerns.  Kansas City is a team on the rise but their young rotation isn't ready to lead them.  Chicago says it's rebuilding but is stuck with some albatross contracts that prevent them from going all-in at anything.  Cleveland is probably one pitcher short of being taken seriously making their performance in the first two months critical for their playoff chances. Minnesota has a little bit of everything from injury concerns to aging players that the team cannot or will not move.  If you like high scoring games with little regard for the team's overall record then this is the division for you.

Chicago White Sox

2011 Record: 79-83

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $98 million
Highest Paid Player: Jake Peavy - $17 million
Best Player: Paul Konerko just keeps on ticking.  He's second all time in franchise history in HR, RBI,  and will be second in total bases by May.
Best Pitcher: John Danks had a bit of a down year in 2011 but some of that may be attributed to injury, Ozzie Guillen, and bad luck.  His peripherals remained strong and he's an excellent bounce back candidate in 2012.
Say Hello To: Simon Castro RP, Delwyn Young UT, Dan Johnson 1B, Kosuke Fukudome OF
Wave Goodbye: Mark Buehrle SP (Mia), Juan Pierre OF (Phi), Omar Vizquel INF (Tor), Sergio Santos CL (Tor), Tony Pena RP (Bos), Jason Frasor RP (Tor), Carlos Quentin OF (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is Adam Dunn done?  Dunn seemed like the perfect fit for the Cell since it's a great home run park, he's a home run hitter, and he can DH. Instead he had one of the worst seasons of all time and despite walking 75 times he managed only 11 home runs and a putrid .159 batting average.  He's looked good in spring training making me optimistic there's still some left but it's clear the Sox aren't getting what they paid for.

2. Who's the next guy to go?  Sox management traded a boatload of players and even manager Ozzie Guillen in the offseason.  Expecting them to continue to dismantle in an effort to rebuild the worst minor league system in baseball would be wise.  John Danks has been rumored to be available but the price remains too high as of now.  Danks, Floyd, and even Peavy if he's pitching well could be moved this summer.

3. How bad is the farm system?  It's really bad.  Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 100 prospects in the minor leagues and the Sox had zero on the list.  On the Up and In podcast, Kevin Goldstein says it's the worst he's ever seen and when he asked other scouts to name a top prospect none came to mind. It's bad but at least it can't get worse. 

Expectations: Realistically this team could finish anywhere from second to fifth.  If Dunn and Rios rebound then this offense can be pretty good.  The bullpen lacks depth and so does the rotation.  While Northsiders will be crying about how bad the Cubs are, at least Sox fans have the potential to be entertained by exciting - albeit not necessarily good - baseball.

Beckham is a great defensive player but
his offense is still lacking.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. De Aza CF

2. Rios RF

3. Ramirez SS

4. Konerko 1B
5. Dunn DH

6. Fukudome LF

7. Pierzynski C

8. Morel 3B
9. Beckham 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Danks
2. Peavy
3. Floyd
4. Sale
5. Humber

CL: Thornton

2012 MLB Preview: NL West

The National League West is the division that seems to get less coverage than any other.  This may be because the Dodgers have been mediocre of late, the Rockies play in a smaller market, the late start times, or all of the above.  This is all too bad because there were some impressive performances in this division last season.  Ian Kennedy and Clayton Kershaw tied for the league lead with 21 wins apiece -Kershaw actually won the triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) title.  Matt Kemp nearly won the hitter's triple crown, failing to win only the batting title where he finished third.  Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most impressive talents in baseball and last season put up his third straight season of 5 wins above replacement. There is a lot of individual talent but the depth of each team's rosters is lacking.  No team should run away from another and whoever finishes in last place may only be 10 games back giving each intradivisional matchup meaning.  That's good for baseball.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2011 Record: 94-68

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $72.9 million
Highest Paid Player: Stephen Drew - $7.75 million
Best Player: Justin Upton was expected to be a superstar when he broke through to the majors at age 19. Last season he seemed to put it together by hitting 31 homers and finishing with a .289/.369/.529 line.
Best Pitcher: Ian Kennedy had his breakthrough season last year going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Say Hello To: Lyle Overbay 1B, Trevor Cahill SP, Craig Breslow RP, Takashi Saito RP, Jason Kubel OF, Mike Jacobs 1B, Cody Ransom 3B, Craig Tatum C
Wave Goodbye: Xavier Nady OF, Jason Marquis SP,  Zach Duke SP (Hou), Collin Cowgill OF (Oak), Jarrod Parker SP (Oak), Ryan Cook RP (Oak), Micah Owings P (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is this team the 2010-11 Padres? Oh no, they're much better than that.  The Padres won the division in 2010 due to an incredible bullpen, defense, and a ton of luck.  The Dbacks have some real talent on the roster and won't collapse like the Padres did last season.

2. Who's the biggest wild card on this team?  Stephen Drew's health is paramount. Willie Bloomquist is not a good enough player to have in the lineup everyday and while Drew may not have lived up to his hype, he's still a solid major league shortstop.  The longer the club is without him the tougher it will be to overtake the Giants.

3. Is Ian Kennedy the type of pitcher to build around long term? It's too soon to say although last season's results were pretty remarkable.  If he performs close to that level again this season Arizona should be working their butts off to keep him around. 

Expectations: The team traded for Oakland's #2 starter in the offseason in an effort to bolster their own rotation and signed Jason Kubel to be the left-handed side of their platoon in left field.  This team should compete and has a very good chance to get back to the playoffs.

Arizona traded for groundball machine Trevor Cahill to
improve a rotation and enhance their attempts to win now.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bloomquist SS

2. Hill 2B

3. Upton RF

4. Montero C
5. Young CF

6. Kubel LF

7. Roberts 3B

8. Goldschmidt 1B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Kennedy
2. Hudson
3. Cahill
4. Collmenter
5. Saunders

CL: Putz

2012 MLB Preview: AL East

Every year there is talk about how baseball should approach realignment to make it more fair for the other teams in the American League East division.  "Who can compete when you've got teams tripling the payroll of the other teams?" they say.  The Yankees and Red Sox are two of the most successful teams in baseball right now and it's no coincidence that they're the two big spenders, too. But frugal Tampa Bay has had success right along with them of late and looks to be there again this season as well.  Now Toronto's rebuild is beginning to bear fruit and after finishing with a winning record last season, the team looks to take the next step with some exciting young players.  Baltimore is in the middle of what seems like a never ending rebuilding process but there are beginning to be signs of changes for the positive.  All of these factors make this a division to watch this summer.  The Yankees and Red Sox are not invulnerable meaning maybe it's someone else's time for a change.  This should end all that nonsense about "fairness" and realignment.

Baltimore Orioles

2011 Record: 69-93

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $97 million
Highest Paid Player: Nick Markakis - $12 million
Best Player: Catcher Matt Wieters broke out last season but I believe the best is yet to come.
Best Pitcher: Jake Arrieta gets the nod over Brian Matusz here simply because of how awful Matusz was last season.
Say Hello To: Darren O'Day RP, Taylor Teagarden C, Endy Chavez OF, Jai Miller OF, Wilson Betemit 3B, Armando Galarraga SP, Ronny Paulino C, Jason Hammel SP, Matt Lindstrom RP, Nick Johnson 1B
Wave Goodbye: Craig Tatum RP (Hou), Vladimir Guerrero (Japan), Cesar Izturis SS (Mil), Luke Scott DH (TB), Jo-Jo Reyes SP (Pit), Jeremy Guthrie SP (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. What is the organizational plan? The team believes by abstaining from big name free agents and allocating that money to player development through the draft and via international signees they'll be able to build a better foundation that will allow for prolonged success.  The only problem with this method is it takes a long time to see results.

2. Is Brian Matusz's career as an effective big leaguer over? That's a little harsh but there are reasons to be concerned. Whispers about work ethic may not be unfounded but the bigger question is why did his velocity and command slip so much last season? If he posts another year like 2011 he'll go from elite prospect to bust in less than two years.

3. What's the latest on Brian Roberts' health?  In May of last season Roberts hit his head sliding into first base and suffered a severe concussion.  He missed the rest of the season and has not participated in live games in spring training.  The team is likely optimistic he'll play soon since they put him on the 15 day DL and not the 60 day DL.

Expectations: It's going to be another losing season thanks to being in a stacked division.  If the young pitchers can take a step forward there will be reason for optimism, otherwise the team will be going backwards - not a good sign when you're already in last place.

Matt Wieters is another example of how it often takes a catcher
 longer than the average hitter to develop his offensive skills.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Reimold LF

2. Johnson DH

3. Markakis RF

4. Jones CF
5. Wieters C

6. Hardy SS

7. Reynolds 3B

8. Davis 1B
9. Andino 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Arrieta
2. Hammel
3. Chen
4. Hunter
5. Matusz

CL: Johnson

2012 MLB Preview: AL West

Since Opening Day is tomorrow I figured I should hurry up and write my preview of the American League West.  This is a top-heavy division.  Anaheim blew their entire wad of cash on the best available free agents while Texas should remain strong thanks to their core of young players.  Seattle is undergoing a youth movement and has several young players who they hope will be a part of their lineup for years to come.  And then there's Oakland, a team who traded away their top players to reload their farm system in hopes they can compete in three years. For some it's time to win now, for others it's in the future.  This division has a lot of both.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2011 Record: 86-76

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $159.1 million
Highest Paid Player: Vernon Wells - $21 million
Best Player: Albert Pujols might be the best player in baseball.
Best Pitcher: The Angels excellent outfield defense makes Weaver really tough to beat.  Give this team an average outfield and it's Dan Haren. Either way this is a really good staff.
Say Hello To: Albert Pujols 1B, CJ Wilson SP, Chris Iannetta C, Brad Mills RP, Jason Isringhausen RP, Juan Rincon RP, LaTroy Hawkins RP, Eric Hurley RP, Ryan Langerhans OF, Jorge Cantu 1B
Wave Goodbye: Russell Branyan 4C (NYY), Fernando Rodney RP (TB), Joel Pineiro RP (Phi), Tyler Chatwood RP (Col), Jeff Mathis C (Tor),
Biggest Questions:
1. Are the Angels the division favorites? They've got the best rotation, the best player, and the best outfield defense, and maybe the best depth but they're not necessarily the best team.  Expect a dogfight with Texas all summer.

2. When will we see Mike Trout?  Mike Trout is to the Angels what Bryce Harper is to the Nationals.  Trout is an electric player who also happens to be an excellent defensive outfielder.  After Vernon Wells' historically bad 2010, if Trout gets off to a hot start a change may be forced to happen.

3. Is the Pujols contract a mistake?  Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do to get your man.  I think Pujols will be worth it the first three years or so but ten years is a long time and these kind of marriages don't always end well.

Expectations: This team forked over more money than any other last season and now sports the third highest payroll in the A.L. With that kind of spending frenzy come playoff expectations.  Winning the World Series should be the goal and this team has the talent to do it.

Perhaps the most underrated pitcher in baseball, Dan Haren
will just keep on keepin' on as this team's true staff ace.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Aybar SS

2. Kendrick 2B

3. Pujols 1B

4. Hunter RF
5. Morales DH

6. Wells LF

7. Callapso 3B

8. Iannetta C
9. Bourjos CF

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Weaver
2. Haren
3. Wilson
4. Santana
5. Williams

Cl: Walden

2012 MLB Preview: NL East

Now that my NCAA bracket filled with scratch marks and red ink I think it's time to move on to some baseball.  Each year I do a preseason preview for every team and this year will be no different.

The National League East is likely the most improved division in baseball.  They didn't lose any high profile players to other divisions and the one big name that changed teams stayed in the division (Jose Reyes).  Several key players are coming back from injury and there's a lot of young talent that's beginning to mature. As a Braves fan I'm concerned their model for success won't work unless they make some changes but as a baseball fan it's great to see Washington and Miami are no longer pushovers.  Philadelphia is still the team to beat but they're pretty beat up right now making this officially a four team race for two (or three?) spots.

Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89-73

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $101.8 million
Highest Paid Player: Chipper Jones - $13 million
Best Player: Brian McCann has been an All-Star every full season he's played.
Best Pitcher: Tommy Hanson made strides towards becoming an ace last season.  If he's over the shoulder woes he'll be the man.
Say Hello To: Tyler Pastornicky SS, Drew Sutton INF
Wave Goodbye: Alex Gonzalez SS (Mil), Derek Lowe SP (Cle), George Sherrill RP (Sea), Scott Linebrink RP (StL), Brooks Conrad INF (Mil), Nate McLouth OF (Pit)
Biggest Questions:
1. Was standing pat the right move? The Braves didn't add a single player via free agency or trade this offseason.  The club is hoping one of Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons will claim the shortstop job with a strong spring now that Alex Gonzalez has taken his .290 OBP to Milwaukee.

2. Is there enough offense to make the playoffs?  One of the reasons Atlanta didn't make any moves is because they believe the poor seasons of Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and the first half from Dan Uggla were aberrations. They'll also get a full season from Michael Bourn who will provide an upgrade in center field.  A new hitting coach was hired as insurance for these guys.

3. Will this team be able to overcome injuries?  Everyone, even Jones himself, acknowledges Chipper cannot play a full season anymore (he's already being out 3 weeks).  If someone like Heyward and/or like Uggla have to miss extended time how will the team be able to cope?  The losses of Conrad and McLouth make the bench weaker than last season and put an enormous strain on the starters to stay healthy.

Expectations: I think the offense will be better than last season but the bullpen will take small step back. They'll be in the wild card race all year but in the end will fall just short unless they make a move at the deadline.

The Braves goal this year will be to win one last time
for Chipper.  They weren't able to do it for Bobby Cox so
I'm not optimistic this will end any differently.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bourn CF

2. Prado 3B

3. McCann C

4. Uggla 2B
5. Freeman 1B

6. Heyward RF

7. Hinske LF

8. Pastornicky SS

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Hanson
2. Minor
3. Beachy
4. Jurrjens
5. Medlen

Cl: Kimbrel